The Dodgers Control the Giancarlo Stanton Sweepstakes
I think we all understand the present circumstances. The Marlins are trying to trade Giancarlo Stanton in order to clear payroll, and they’ve reached general agreements with both the Cardinals and the Giants. From the Cardinals, the Marlins would get talent and salary relief. From the Giants, the Marlins would get talent and salary relief. There are differences, obviously, but right now you’d think there are only these two finalists. Stanton has full no-trade protection, but he doesn’t want to stick around where he is, and so we’re getting to a decision point. Stanton will soon need to pick St. Louis or San Francisco.
Or neither. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know, but Stanton grew up and played high-school ball around Los Angeles. We’re not familiar with Stanton’s actual thoughts, but the consensus opinion is that Stanton’s ideal outcome would be a trade to the Dodgers. To this point, we haven’t heard much about the Dodgers’ trade interest. Stanton wouldn’t be the type of add they typically make. And yet, here we are. The Dodgers continue to loom over this whole thing.
This can obviously change as it goes, but Giants expect a Stanton decision by the end of the week. I’m hearing they continue to view Dodgers, not Cardinals, as biggest threat.
— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) December 6, 2017
Giancarlo Stanton? Stanton has plenty of leverage. But so do the Dodgers. The Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes are unusual, but so is this situation, with Stanton effectively able to hold out until he gets what he wants.
I’m far from the first person to get here. Buster Olney wrote about Stanton’s leverage on November 21. Grant Brisbee wrote about the Dodgers’ position on November 28. The Dodgers have been right there from the beginning, even though rumors of their strong interest haven’t leaked. The Dodgers certainly don’t look eager, in the press. But they also haven’t ruled anything out. The Dodgers have painted themselves as a possibility, and it stands to reason that’s why Stanton is technically still professional property of the Marlins.
Given where the Marlins are, I don’t think Stanton wants to go back. He would presumably prefer either the Cardinals or the Giants. But if his strong preference were to join the Dodgers, then there’s no reason for him to accept anything yet. If the Dodgers might get involved, well, why should Stanton be in any rush? And, for their own part, why should the Dodgers be in any rush? They don’t need very much. They’re already a finalist for Ohtani. The Dodgers benefit from effectively holding up everything else. Other teams want to get more business done, but the Dodgers can keep the market in limbo.
The Dodgers have decisions to make. I’m going to guess they’ve already made most of them. How much do they want Stanton? How much of an improvement would he be? Would his destination have any bearing at all on Ohtani’s frame of mind? Might the Dodgers actually want Stanton to end up with the Giants, at or around the rumored cost? Might the Dodgers prefer the Giants be so burdened? There’s a chance there, although the Dodgers also would understand that Stanton would make them better right away. Not by a full five or six wins, but by a few wins, at least. Get Stanton now and the Dodgers could sit out the whole Bryce Harper circus in a year. It’s hard to turn down a Stanton, when one is available. The Dodgers could make it work.
The key bit of information here is that Stanton can basically dictate where he goes. The key speculation is that Stanton would prefer the Dodgers over anyone else. The other key speculation is that the Marlins are sufficiently motivated to move Stanton now, instead of having to clear payroll by other means. That would be more challenging for them to do, and Stanton would also spend the whole next year as an unhappy reigning MVP. It’s a situation any team would like to avoid. The Marlins are toxic, ever more so when trying to reduce the payroll by tens of millions of dollars.
Rumors of the Cardinals’ offer have floated. So have rumors of the Giants’ offer. I don’t know how accurate they are, but they seem sensible and logical enough. If the Dodgers decide they don’t want Stanton, they can just back away and let him make his decision. But if, alternatively, the Dodgers decide they’d like a more powerful outfield, they can express their interest. And, critically, they wouldn’t have to match the Cardinals or Giants’ offers. Not if Stanton actually wants to play in Los Angeles more than anything else. Then it would be almost all up to Stanton and the Dodgers, because Stanton could simply tell the Marlins he’ll accept nothing else. He can force the Marlins to choose between an underwhelming Dodgers offer and bringing an unhappy Stanton back. That wouldn’t guarantee a Dodgers trade happens, but it would be the most likely scenario.
The Marlins have said they don’t want to take a bad contract or two back. They might not have a choice, because the Dodgers are also reportedly motivated to drop below the competitive-balance-tax threshold. The Dodgers could achieve that by sending the Marlins short-term dead weight. And while I don’t think the Dodgers could get away with not offering the Marlins anything appealing at all, they wouldn’t need to match the other prospect packages. They’d need to offer just enough to convince the Marlins to suck it up. They’d need to offer just enough for the Marlins to prefer the offer over the fallout from Stanton sticking around. Moving Stanton is by far the easiest way for the Marlins to help their financial situation. They might not want to think about the alternatives. They don’t have many alternatives.
Stanton controls this, which we can take to mean the Dodgers also control this. Because of how the leverage here is distributed, it makes sense that Stanton would be available to the Dodgers for a lower cost than the one that would be charged to the Cardinals and Giants. It’s not often you see trade negotiations that are so lopsided in one team’s favor, but this is something teams just have to accept when they give out no-trade clauses. Players earn those clauses, and they’re free to use them however they like. Usually, circumstances aren’t so complicated. But it seems like Stanton wants Los Angeles. Which essentially would leave this up to Los Angeles. If they want him, they ought to be able to get him, for a rather underwhelming return. The Marlins wouldn’t be happy, but even though they’re the ones with their finger on the trigger, it’s hardly their decision to make. Their power here is woefully limited.
Ideally, the Marlins wouldn’t operate this way. Ideally, the Marlins would be a legitimate operation, just like anyone else. It would be great if Stanton were happy where he is, because that would be better for baseball. But the Marlins continue to be a tire fire, and it’s seldom better for a team to trade an MVP. If the Dodgers allow, Stanton will shortly elect to join the Cardinals or the Giants. And if the Dodgers allow, Stanton will shortly become a part of their own impressive core.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I disagree with the notion that Stanton gets to dictate where he goes. He has a lot of leverage, BUT he cannot force the Marlins to accept a lousy trade.
If the Dodgers are the only team remaining and don’t offer something to Miami’s liking, they could just keep him. Stanton has to be careful not to overplay his hand.
I mean, how comical would it be if the Marlins said, “screw it, we’ll keep him.”
I agree that there is such a balance point. The Dodgers can’t offer the Marlins literally nothing. But I don’t think the Dodgers would have to offer 1.0(Giants package). It might be more like 0.75(Giants package), or even 0.5(Giants package). If the Marlins are insistent on cutting costs, they don’t have very many ways to do it. At some point greater than 0 and less than 1, the Marlins and Dodgers could reach an understanding.
I guess if I’m the Marlins, I call Stanton’s bluff.
If the Dodgers don’t match the offers on the table, all they have to tell Stanton is that LA isn’t an option. Obviously, it might not be the best for Miami, but neither is leaving great options on the table to take a significantly worse one.
I really think Stanton waiting for LA would be to overplay his hand here. At some point, Miami could decide to pivot, and Stanton is the real loser.
LA could string it along, too, not give Stanton a definitive answer. They’ll do what is in their best interests, just like everyone else in this equation. Besides, Stanton could always change his mind later, accept a trade somewhere up the road if his first choice (LA) doesn’t negotiate in good faith. Long-term, staying in Miami is not much of an option, but short term it would be a good strategy for him if he doesn’t like his choices.
I’m not sure the Marlins can afford to call his bluff, literally.
Hey Jeff I was wondering your thoughts on the fallout from the eventual Ohtani signing. I feel like MLB really shat the bed on this one, and there are only a few outcomes that work well for them moving forward. I feel like by not finding a way to exempt him from the intl. bonus rules, and let him sign for market value, they have put everyone else involved in a terrible situation.
As an A’s fan its annoying to me that the Giants are finalists, because of the colosseum being the main drag on the A’s pitch, and the Giants obvious attempts to stall any attempt by Oak to stay in the bay in a real ballpark. On top of that almost every other ALW team is on the list, and I was just starting to look forward to the A’s with there sneaky good, deep farm, and cheap young core developing overrunning the aging expensive teams in Sea/Tex/Ana with there diminished farms, and grinding up against the Astros the next several seasons as it gets costlier to keep that team together. I SO! hope he signs in SD! I feel like he will single handedly change the fortunes of a ball club, by adding sooooo much surplus value, and its literally a lottery for 200+mm potential value going to 1 team out of 30 for about 30-50mm over 6 years. Out of the few remaining options I wouldn’t want the Dodgers to get him, because come on thats not fair, and I personally dislike the Cubs until the Trump loving Ricketts are run out of town, so no matter how you slice it most options aren’t good. Its Ohtani brings meaningful baseball back to SD for the first time in a while, which I can get behind, or a player I very much respect who under neutral circumstances I would love to see succeed in every facet of the game, will literally needle me with every thing he does that helps a rival.
I believe all this would have been avoided if he was an unrestricted FA, since then a team would have been ponying up somewhere near his potential market value, along with all the greater risks, and cost factors baked in. If he signs for 6/180 a team is putting real assets on the line and is more deserving of a positive outcome. Doing a 30 team raffle where nobody pays close to what he’s worth, and there is only one Ohtani seems utterly ludicrous to me, and a nightmare down the road.
I feel that fans from teams in the same division will despise him for what he does to the odds in the race. If he’s a superstar its the worst outcome PR wise, because a 500k Superstar you did nothing to develop is BS. If he flops nobody cares, but if the Dodgers grab Stanton and get Ohtani for no money, say reset the luxury tax while adding 13-15 WAR with a breakout from both, there will be hell to pay, and a cry of unfair advantages from 29 other fanbases. I think SD snagging a WC where Ohtani wins the WC game, but the team is bumped in the division series is the least objectionable outcome, and thats only thinking short term where the longer he drives his team to success for well below market rates the more resentment will build, through no fault of his own, other then a desire to not wait to come play MLB games.
I would love to hear your thoughts on this, I just started realizing the other day as this silly trickle comes in of who gets the rose and who doesn’t in “The Ohtani Bachelor” show, that this is going to piss a lot of people off eventually, and it could be sooner rather then later. As with reality TV people get angry about outcomes, and this is “The Decision”, on steroids. I have so much respect for Ohtani on a player and personal level, and I hate how much I now am hoping he flops into an elite reliever and below average PH, based on the number of negative probable outcomes in his remaining destinations. MLB/MLBPA made a big fuckup on this one, since if Ohtani really is what were all dreaming of then its just plain and simply unfair. No development, no investment relatively speaking, and a player with the upside of greater value then Mike Trout by a not insignificant margin if he’s really 5 tools on both sides. The better Ohtani is, the worse it could be for baseball, unfortunately.
Hey Jeff, I know you’re too busy to read that 300,000 word comment, so let me summarize. How bad does it suck to be an A’s fan?
No room for complex thought anymore? Just keep it to 140 characters I guess. Oh wait were allowed to have thoughts that are as big as 260 now! 😉
Usually this quote is attributed to Samuel Clemens, but it’s apt no matter wrote it: “If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter.”
Your “complex thought” is not complex; it’s poorly written, self-indulgent and repetitive, and to call it rambling is a severe understatement. Other than that, it was pretty good.
Also how busy baseball wise is he really? I got mad love for Jeff he’s my favorite baseball writer since he can take almost any subject and make it an interesting worthwhile read, and he has some very interesting out of the box ideas to write about.
We are however in the offseason, in the slowest offseason I can remember, so whats a few minutes while we wait for the winter meetings to bring some real action!
I’m glad that you know your buddy Jeff so well that you know exactly what is on his to-do list.
It’s actually a great comment. 29 teams are going to wish that Ohtani was able to sign for market value.
@Knoblaublah – agreed. Even though the comment wasn’t directly related to the actual article, jmsdean makes a very good point. Maybe worth an article all to itself. Also, something similar could be said about the fan’s reactions to the outcome of the “Giancarlo Bachelor” show.
Yes, Jeff, I’m asking for your thoughts about the fall’s signature Ohtania. I think MLB really cares about this issue to bed, and only a few scores and progress. I have a feeling that I cannot find a way to get rid of it on the Internet. The bonus rules and allow you to apply a market value, putting people in terrible situations.
As a fan, I remember when the Giants on the final phase, because the impact on the ground, and in efforts to clear the Giants had to give up on trying to stay in the Bay of hakea. Composite. In addition, most of the teams from other lists VLT, and I just hope has started development of a team of young, dark, deep and not expensive, too expensive for sea/time. /Out, zoom to the farm and were on their way to the Astros next year, because it is very expensive to this group. I’ve been here. I hope to connect SD! I think this will change the destiny of the Club to that Chamber, to add more value, but that is the alignment for the 200 mm + potential value goes to the Group of 30 per cent to about 30-50 mm for 6 years. In a few other options, I would not be Dod?erse, because that’s not fair, but personally I don’t like when fans Cubs Trump points out of town, so that no matter what will take care of most of the features it doesn’t have to be good. First, Ohtani’s baseball security in SD, how can I get or a player who has a lot of respect when in neutral items I want to see success in all aspects. The game, which would mean iglomiti all to help your opponent.
I think this would be avoided if the OS is not limited to, the team sometimes offered somewhere in the value of their potential market, with all the main risk and cost factors. Costs are cooked. If you sign up for 6/80, that would put the property in the game and deserve a positive results. Played 30 solid competition, that no one would pay close to what that’s worth, and it looks like a nightmare Ohtani and squashed.
I think that the fans of the teams in the same contempt for what’s in the race. If the super star, this is the worst result of PR, because he’s a superstar like that, they don’t do anything to develop in BS. If on the flop, no one cares, but if the Dodgers are Ohtanija Stanton and received no money, for example, to restore a tax on a tax, even 13-15 on Saturday with two breaks, it will be hell and cries of unfair advantage in 29 other fans. I think SD captured VC where Ohtani won the VC, but teams are involved in a wide range of results is less controversial, but I just think that in the short term, while he was driving his team to success. Well below the market price so much resentment will build without errors, then I look forward to not having to wait for the match, MLB.
I’d like to hear your thoughts on this issue, I don’t understand the other day, when he showed up that monster to silence the Commission and who does not show the “Ohtani Bachelor” shows that this is the last person has nothing to do, and that’s before, and then, like with reality tv , people are upset with the results, and that the “decision” on steroids. Ohtanija player on a personal level, and I hate how much I hope now that this will rise to Canon Middle class and below the median PH, based on the number of negative results, you can replace the MLBPA/MLBPA opportunity Well here, because if people really Ohtani dream of easy and j easy. Development without the relative investment and the player with the highest value of Mike trout are the best officers, if there’s 5 tricks on both sides. Baseball, unfortunately
Does that Hateraid taste good? I know Im onto something as well since despite the haters nobody has refuted any of my points, which detailed my personal viewpoint to illustrate why I was thinking about it.
@jmsdean477 – no hate intended. I just thought the “Hey Jeff” part was funny because of your long comment.
Especially when Jeff is too busy to ever respond to one of my comments 🙁
Jeff’s article- 1,192 words.
This comment- 777.
more than 900 words critiquing the comment and adding nothing else fyi.
You lost legitimacy when you began to blame the Giants for an agreement the A’s willingly signed and supported.
And 1,000+ words on a comment section (not a forum) drove everybody away.
I’ll just leave this here
https://www.mlb.com/video/stanton-leaves-dodger-stadium/c-112594683
That is an erroneous assumption. The Marlins do not have to trade Stanton at all. They PREFER to trade him than their young core, but they have already said publicly that they are willing to keep Stanton and trade away Ozuna, Yelich, Gordon, Prado, and others to meet their payroll target.
Because Stanton has said publicly that he does not want to stay for a rebuild, and staying would mean a complete tear down around him, the leverage is on the side of the Marlins. They can be relatively certain that he will opt out after 2020 if he stays in a Marlins uniform especially if he plays anywhere close to your performance projections for him and they can be absolutely sure he will opt out if he repeats 2017. In addition, they can trade him again mid-season or next offseason if they don’t get the package they want now to a team he will accept.
At the risk of being obvious, there’s a poker game in play and Miami saying they’re willing to keep Stanton is just part of that. I don’t think you should give it much weight. They want and need him gone to to get started on their vision.
See how Stanton enjoys 3 months next season without being surrounded by some of the Marlins good young hitters who get traded off for prospects or packages where they unload some undesirable big contracts because Stanton would not approve a deal. He will be screaming to be traded anywhere by the deadline with much less leverage. Make him go on long bus rides in ST to help change his mind
I can see another path to cutting payroll to under $90 million for 2019, which is reportedly the Marlins’ goal. Stanton, by the way, doesn’t get them all the way there. Cot’s shows the Marlins 2018 payroll at $107 million without Stanton. Stanton is the cleanest and easiest path to cutting payroll due to his long-term guarantee. Here’s a combination of three other trades, though, that reduce 2018 payroll to $77 million:
– Trade Gordon ($10.8 million for 2018). Perhaps some team (e.g., the Blue Jays) sees Gordon’s remaining 3/ $39 as a basically fair value contract. No return of any note, but the money is cleared. Per my point above, I think he’s likely gone even if Stanton is traded.
– Trade Ozuna packaged with Ziegler ($19.9 million for 2018). Ozuna’s 2018 arb estimate of $19.9 million is per MLB Trade Rumors. Ziegler is paid above market at $9 million, but he’s not useless so that’s not all dead money. Ozuna’s final two arb years should still have surplus value packaged with Ziegler. The Giants or Cardinals are logical trade partners for this deal if Stanton isn’t moved.
– Trade Yelich packaged with Chen and Tazawa ($24 million for 2018). Yelich’s team-friendly 4 year contract plus a 2022 option has massive surplus value as he’s a 4 WAR player and 26 years old. Chen’s remaining 3 / $52 is way underwater, maybe all dead money if his medicals are bad enough. Tazawa is also almost a pure salary dump as a reclamation project for someone. Yelich should still have surplus value that nets a prospect return with these contracts, though obviously the return is reduced. The Cardinals should be interested in this deal if they aren’t a partner for the Ozuna trade. Several rebuilding teams with payroll room (Phillies, Padres, White Sox) could also be logical trade partners since Yelich offers so many years of team control.
That would leave the Marlins’ 2018 payroll at $77 million. Stanton’s $26 million is the only contract on the books for 2020, plus arb salaries. Volquez’s $13 million is gone after 2018, which he’ll miss due to TJ surgery this August. Or maybe he’s moved in place of Ziegler or Tazawa in one of the various possible trade combinations, or packaged with Realmuto or Bour (each have 3 arb years of control) for a lesser prospect return. Prado has 2 / $28.5 remaining. Prado was a 3+ win player as recently as 2016, so perhaps most of that remaining money can be moved during this season if he shows that he’s healthy and productive.
Granted, it’s pretty much a full teardown. But I think that the Marlins’ justify a full teardown, because this team was a bit below .500 even with Stanton. They have a poorly-ranked farm system and don’t have the revenue to try to spend their way to contention. To stop at just trading Stanton (or something like just Stanton and Gordon) seems foolish as it leaves them with a team unlikely to be a contender any time soon.
Don’t forget that Volquez contract has insurance that pays 70% of the $13 million. Prado can be moved as long as the Marlins are willing to eat 30-50% of that contract.
On Gordon – While he would’ve probably been a great fit for the Jays, because boy do they have no one who profiles like him, I doubt they’re going to acquire him after getting Diaz from the Cardinals.
Jays have more pressing needs, like another quality outfielder or starter or bullpen guy. Though maybe eat some money and send Morales back and cycle guys through the DH.
I wonder if that artificial surface in Toronto figured into the thinking of potential infielders.
Problem ist if jeter Comes back with anything less than two top100 prospects (which is basically the giants best offer) he will be more hated than loria.
trading stanton for a middling offer would cripple the Franchise. are the marlins that greedy?
Have to disagree, many if not most fans understand what’s happening and why, and they’re so happy to see Loria gone that they’re going to give Jeter some leeway. Of course they love Stanton, but the good of the team is the bigger issue and most fans will get that.
I imagine that Marlins fans will be pretty upset about yet another teardown, especially one that looks to be purely about reducing costs for no reason other than the amount of debt that the new owners took on to finance their bid. The Jeter crew has already gotten an awful lot of bad press recently about their staff firings, particularly the scout with cancer.
@jdlbolick – while I think that the new ownership group was foolish to pay $1.2 billion for the team and then institute this teardown without explaining their long-term plan, reasonably estimated outside numbers say that debt involved with the bid isn’t the driving factor here. Reports I’ve read say that the deal didn’t actually add debt to the team: the group “will assume $100 million in the team’s debt and is restructuring an additional $300 million of the club’s debt”, meaning that the debt was already there. ( https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/09/28/jeter-4-percent-stake-in-marlins-who-will-have-400m-debt/106092674/ )
I take owner claims of big operating losses with a grain of salt, but they make sense here.
Forbes’ revenue estimates put the Marlins’ revenue at basically the same as the Rays for 2016. That makes sense, because the Marlins have basically the lowest revenue local TV contract of any team ( https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ ). They were bottom 3 in attendance for 2017, ahead of only the A’s and the Rays.
Over the last few years, the Rays’ opening day 25-man payroll has been around $65 to $75 million. The A’s, who have about $20 million more in local TV revenue than the Marlins, have been around $80 to $85 million.
Cot’s had the Marlins at a bit over $130 million of opening day payroll for 2018, including arb estimates, before they traded Gordon. There just isn’t any reason based on the outside observations that I’ve listed to think that the Marlins’ revenue could support that payroll without big operating losses. And it really wouldn’t get any better in 2019 because backloaded dollars in contracts and expected arb raises would offset dropping the contracts of Volquz, Ziegler, and Tazawa after 2018.
Between this payroll structure (including contracts that look underwater) and what might be the worst minor league system in baseball, it’s a team that really should be a prime candidate to do a full teardown and rebuild and target contending a few years out.
But they aren’t tearing down for prospects, they are tearing down to save money, and Jeff Sullivan’s polling results demonstrate that Marlins fans are furious. Dominikk85 appears to be correct.
The Pirates did this and are doing this with Andrew McCutcheon. Why not the Marlins?
This is a good article overall, but underplays the leverage the Marlins have in this whole matter.
They want to drop $250M or so from their commitment, and got two teams already willing to do that. Unless the Dodgers can engineer other deals to drop their own payroll, while trading for Stanton, the Marlins have already reportedly told Stanton that if he don’t agree to a trade, the Marlins will be force to cut elsewhere, which means Yellich and Ozuno, and then the fallout, as far as they care, was due to Stanton’s decision. He chose this.
So the Dodgers just can’t underbid, they have to substantially meet what the other two teams have offered (and apparently the Cards are taking on more money as well as give up more prospects, but they can live with the Giants offer) and figure out on their own how to reduce their payroll otherwise.
It may lead to a toxic situation in Miami with Stanton around, but the ownership clearly would place that on Stanton’s head for forcing them to sell off other players and have already mentally accepted that this might happen, and, while not happy with it, obviously appears to have accepted that as a possibility.
And the offers won’t be available forever, the Giants especially are notorious for moving on if the deal don’t move by the Winter Meetings, Sabean waits for nobody. They will move on and probably soon.
And maybe that is what the Dodgers want, to stall enough so that the Giants cut bait, and force Stanton to the Cards.
The thing is, the Marlins are not ‘forced’ to cut payroll, it is their choice, and I think that will be hard to blame on Stanton. That said, the Marlins can choose to keep him and pay him even though they don’t want to, so they do have at least a bit of leverage.
It’s very easy to blame it on Stanton.
All they have to say is, “he wouldn’t accept a trade to a team who put forth an acceptable package, so we kept him and moved everyone else around him.”
If they don’t get an offer they like from LA, they can simply call Stanton “uncooperative” and claim, “we did everything we could to get him on a better team.”
“If he’s so adamant about playing in LA, he needs to wait till his opt-out, or he shouldn’t have signed a 13-year deal to play in Miami.”
There are multiple spins that can point the finger at Stanton. If he blocks trades, and the Marlins don’t want to accept a shitty deal for him, take the nuclear option and throw him under the bus.
What’s going to happen, Jeter’s PR is going to get worse?
They can say that, but who will buy it? The Marlins have zero credibility.
Who will buy it? No one will care.
Do you think the Marlins care more about money or more about credibility and whether they have an unhappy Stanton on their hands?
The more you think they care about money, the less “discount” the Dodgers can get in trading for Stanton. Contrary to the theme of Jeff’s article, I happen to think the Marlins’ new ownership cares a lot more about money.
It depends on something we can’t know, which are the Marlins motivations for shedding payroll. If they just need to shed payroll in any term, they can trade other players.
If they specifically need to reduce or eliminate their long-term outlays, this is the only significant one. There may be specific reasons that this contract needs to be discharged from the team in order to detangle Jeffrey Loria. The contract is guaranteed: is it possible that some piece of collateral that is backing that insurance is owned by Loria and needs to be bought out?
We don’t know the internal motivations for this. If the Marlins are dead set on shedding THIS contract, Giancarlo and the Dodgers have the ability to drag them over the coals and screw them, and both have incentive to do so: Giancarlo gets to force himself onto not only a better team in his home city, but one that surrendered less future success to secure him.
If the Marlins are just generically trying to save money, they can move Yelich and Ozuna and others. But the possibility remains that it is Stanton specific, and if so, the Marlins are going to get wrecked, which is the only trade for Stanton the Dodgers would likely participate in
It has been widely reported that the Marlins motivation is to lower payroll for 2018 and 2019. In 2021 they will have $80+ million in additional revenue from their new TV deal and naming rights. At that point, a payroll of $130 or $150 million will be no problem.
They have also said publicly and to Stanton himself that while they would prefer to trade Stanton, that if he is unwilling to accept a trade to a team that has made an offer acceptable to the Marlins, that they will still meet their payroll by trading other players. Players like Ozuna, Yelich, Gordon, Prado, and others.
What’s your reference for $80 million plus in additional revenue in 2021? That seems very high.
I know that the Marlins do have one the lowest local TV deals in MLB, which is up after 2020. It’s logical to see paths to getting at least somewhat more after 2020. I don’t see any huge jump as guaranteed or even likely, though, especially if the team is bad on the field for the next three years, which seems likely. There’s a low level of local interest in the team. The macro background of cord-cutting isn’t great for a team with a low-level of local interest getting a big local cable deal that’s premised on hammering cable and satellite providers into accepting big carriage fees.
I know that that Marlins’ very low revenues – Forbes put them almost tied with the Rays in 2016 for lowest-revenue franchise – are out of line with the large size of the South Florida market. The question is how to get from the current situation to rectifying that, however. Loria burned the fanbase so often that there’s an understandable lack of local interest. Revenue doesn’t support the current level of payroll without owners covering operating losses, and the minor league system is rated one of the worst in MLB. They’ve got some bad money contract commitments for the next few years (Chen, Prado) with negative trade value.
It really looks like the Marlins need a full reset and rebuild where they rebuild the minors to try to put a winning, largely homegrown team on the field in a few years. Basically, initially follow a Rays/A’s model to try to find a level of success with a pretty low payroll and then hope that the fan interest and revenue follows to become at least a mid-revenue team and therefore support a larger payroll.
I always hate answering for someone else, but since he hasn’t answered, here goes.
The Marlins play in the 16th largest TV market. lyonspr.com/latest-nielsen-dma-rankings/
TV contracts and TV advertising are based on the DMA ranking.
If you look at the 10 contracts signed since 2010, that would put the new Marlins TV between $66 and $100 million.
Team’s Neilsen DMA Ranking in ( )
Yankees(1) – $385 million per season
Dodgers(2) – $334 million per season
Phillies(4) – $200 million per season
Rangers(5) – $155 million per season
Angels(2?) – $147 million per season
Astros(8) – $120 million per season
Diamondbacks(12) – $100 million per season
Mariners(14) – $100 million per season
Cardinals(21) – $66 million per season
Padres(28) – $60 million per season
Several teams including the Cubs(3), Tigers (13), Rockies(17), and Brewers(35) will be renegotiated prior to the Marlins new deal in 2021, so the amount the Marlins get may be even larger.
Toronto, Baltimore, and Boston are not included in this list because they own 80-100% of the TV network they are broadcast on, so revenues from TV are not disclosed. The Giants are not listed because they do not get a set amount, they get 33% of revenue earned by Comcast SportsNet. Estimates are between $140 and $170 million. The Nationals have been embroiled the Orioles in litigation over MASN, so they are not included.
Hope that answers your question.
One thing you missed was the naming rights to Marlins Park. That should be $8-10 million on its own. The rest is spot on.
Fair enough.
@websoulsurfer – Thank you, but I’m aware of the background of local TV contracts, such as from this Fangraphs article a couple years ago – https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/
One issue with your numbers: you are using the AAV of TV contracts signed in the past several years, and these contracts often run for 15 years or more. These deals aren’t flat annual revenue but rather have annual escalators built into them. So a deal like the Diamondbacks, for example, totals 20 years / $1.5 billion running until 2035. It had estimated revenue of $50 million in 2016, well below the $75 million AAV (per the article that I linked above). So any immediate jump in the Marlins’ TV revenue post-2020 won’t match the AAV of a long-term TV rights contract.
Second, market size matters, but so does fan interest. The logic for market size driving revenue is that some meaningful fraction of cable TV subscribers care if a team’s games are available, which provides RSN’s with leverage to get and keep carriage on the standard cable tier . In the case of the Marlins, most viewers in the area might just say, “who cares?” This is a team with a sustained history of being last in the NL in attendance nearly every year ( https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/FLA/attend.shtml ). This is a team that had the second lowest raw number of households (22,000) watching its games in its home DMA in 2017, ahead of only the A’s, and is 26th out of the 29 U.S. teams in local ratings ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2017/10/10/here-are-the-2017-mlb-prime-time-television-ratings-for-each-team/2/#4b4732d363cc ). And that viewership was with a somewhat competitive 77 win team and Stanton hitting 59 home runs, not what’s likely to be a worse team over the next three seasons.
Third, the macro environment is shifting in ways that aren’t favorable to these big money cable deals. ESPN keeps bleeding a couple million subscribers each year ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-22/espn-subscribers-drop-to-14-year-low-putting-pressure-on-disney ). The Dodgers’ SportsNet LA still only has carriage covering 40% of pay TV households in the L.A. area 4 years after it launched ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-dodgers-are-on-a-roll-but-fans-remain-in-the-dark-amid-cable-tv-dispute-1501419968 ). The only major cable provider in the L.A. area to carry it is Spectrum, who owns the channel. The best estimates are that Spectrum is currently losing tens of millions of dollars each year on this deal, which was effectively a bet that it could obtain a fairly high per subscriber carriage fee. That hasn’t proven to be in the case even with a team that has a well-established fanbase and has been a playoff team each of those 4 years. And I suspect one lesson being learned by the cable and satellite providers who don’t have SportsNet L.A. is that they can do just fine keeping subscribers by not having the channel but also not having that cost to pass through to subscribers.
I think the Dodgers should try and get this done. I suppose they can wait until after Ohtani makes his decision but he is inexpensive so I don’t think that should change their process. I keep hearing about Harper, but given the luxury tax implications for the Dodgers, Stanton might cost half of what Harper costs and of course there is no guarantee you get Harper.
Adding Otani does potentially make it easier to move other salary, which makes Stanton easier to swallow if they want to get under the luxury tax in the next couple years
This seems like a prime opportunity for a three-way trade: Marlins ship out Stanton, Dodgers give a decent contract away (one of their millions of starting pitchers, perhaps?), and a third team gets the pitcher in exchange for some prospects headed toward Miami.
What “decent contract” would you suggest gets moved that justifies the other team giving up prospects so the Dodgers can acquire Stanton? Just curious.
A 3 team deal would probably include at least one prospect going from the Dodgers to the Marlins and a couple from the 3rd team going to the Marlins and a pitcher like Hill going to the 3rd team.
Kazmir is untradeable. McCarthy nearly so unless the Dodgers eat a significant portion of his $11.5 million salary in 2018.
I see very little chance that the Dodgers would trade Hill. That just opens up a hole in their rotation for 2018 that they’d want to fill from outside. Hill fits with the Dodgers very well because they have the rotation depth to manage his number of starts to try to keep him healthy and effective all season. Even if the Dodgers get Ohtani, Hill would still project as one of the Dodgers’ top 4 starters for a playoff rotation.
I would guess that the Dodgers and Marlins eventually work something out along the lines of Dodgers sending Kasmir or McCarthy, Toles and a middling prospect or two for Stanton and $50 million. Dodgers get some immediate payroll relief; Marlins would have a starter they could hopefully trade in July. If Stanton continues to insist LA or bust, this is about the best Fish could hope for.
This is not about the Dodgers getting payroll relief, it’s about the Marlins getting payroll relief. The entire reason the Marlins are looking to trade him is to get their payroll down to $90 million in 2018 and reduced for 2019. They have expressed a willingness to take on part of Stanton’s salary from 2021 and on. In other words after the opt out. Taking on Kasmir or McCarthy does not do that for them.
The bottom line is this, unless they get what they want from the Dodgers, the Marlins do not have to trade Stanton. They can trade other players to get payroll down to $90 million for 2018.
The reason the Dodgers aren’t a more aggressive suitor for Stanton is that they can’t afford to balloon their payroll into the double-surtax-draft pick loss region and then resign Kershaw for a higher AAV in a year.
There has to be some 2018 relief for LAD in a deal where they pick it up longer term for them to do this.
He is right. The Marlins are in save now, spend later mode. If the Dodgers need salary relief in 2018, then trading for Stanton is not in the cards for them. Or the Dodgers would have to make other trades to lower payroll 1st, then see if Stanton is still available for trade afterward, maybe at the trade deadline.
If the Dodgers can’t afford to take on the relatively small $77 million that Stanton is owed over the next 3 seasons, then they will have to turn their sights to other players. The Marlins are not in a position to eat any of that money. They have said that they are willing to eat $45 million from 2021-2028, but nothing before then.
The whole point of Jeff’s article is that Stanton has a ton of leverage to force the Marlins into what isn’t their ideal transaction, in particular potentially one where they eat up some expiring-contract money for 2018 in return, in order to keep the Dodgers from hitting the 240 mark again where they start paying over 100% in surtax and have their draft pick moved back 10 spots.
An ideal deal for the Marlins may be one where they move nearly all of the money (the Cardinals have supposedly offered to take on 250 of the 290 million remaining), but Stanton may have enough leverage to push them into picking up 10m in 2018 or 60m over the duration of the deal instead.
There’s a lot of options in between ‘Dodgers eat all the money’ and ‘Dodgers don’t eat any money’ that will only get explored if Giancarlo Stanton forces the Marlins to explore them.
Moving 80% of what they want to move from Stanton’s contract saves them a lot more money than most of their other trade options, even if it isn’t the scenario they would consider ‘ideal’.
Kazmir is only owed half his salary next year, the rest three years later. That means the Marlins still get most of the salary relief they would get the next two years
If the Dodgers have the Marlins over the barrel, which they do, the chance for Miami to get rid of $200,000+ of payroll as opposed to keeping Stanton at full salary will be enticing. They are the ones who ridiculously offered a full non-trade agreement tied to a $295M liability going forward. Good luck getting a better deal.
The Dodgers have not made an offer yet, and both the Giants and the Cardinals have made offers the Marlins are willing to take.
Unless the Dodgers step up and make an offer as good as either the Giants or Cardinals, Stanton’s choice will be SF or STL or Miami.
Jeter and the Marlins bungled this from the beginning by being so publicly vocal about how desperate their financial situation was and by indicating their intention to get rid of Stanton. They lost all their leverage in doing so and now have had to allow Stanton a free agent tour of the Cards & Giants and are now waiting on the Dodgers to, maybe, indicate some semblance of interest.
They could move forward by getting rid of other players as well but now they’re forced to accept anything the Dodgers offer. The notion that Stanton has all the control didn’t have to be the case but it’s now become so obvious they’re getting rid of him regardless of the return that there’s no going back.
There simply isn’t any evidence that the Marlins have reached a point of no return and must trade Stanton to the Dodgers no matter how little the Dodgers are offering.
What in the world makes you think that the Marlins have to accept anything the Dodgers offer- other than taking ESPN writer nonsense at face value?
When did Jeter or the Marlins ever go ‘publicly vocal’ about getting rid of Stanton?
It’s not true that the Marlins have to trade Stanton, or that Jeter has been too open with the public and given away all leverage. It’s just ESPN writers being ESPN writers.
Jeter hasn’t really done much wrong yet – some people are taking the leaked stories about firings at face value, without considering that tabloid style reporting is not always true. Boras and the ESPN writers who always push for spending are taking aim at Jeter early and often for what- a few routine staff changes rumored to be delegated, and a bunch of speculation about Stanton? It’s just Disney Sports writers doing what Disney Sports writers do.
I don’t like Jeter, but the Skip Bayless style meme pushing is annoying and really hurts a baseball community like Miami- you can see people starting the fires already if, god forbid, Miami keeps their MVP who is under contract. The Disney sporters are going to scream Loria and print clickbait on this whether Stanton is traded or not.
Just to clarify- the Marlins have denied the Passan story- and Passan admits that the scout’s story differs from the timeline of earlier notification given by the Marlins- but if that is true, then obvious that is poor.
The piling on for either (1) trading Stanton or (2) not trading Stanton, as well as not spending more than revenue will support, is not fair or good for the Miami baseball community.
I’m not proud of it, but I find myself rooting for Jeter to fail. He was good at hitting, catching, and throwing baseballs, but what qualifies him to run a billion-dollar company? It seems (to me, anyway) like hubris.
Have you worn his cologne??
I don’t like Jeter and I totally get cheering for him to fail.
But I don’t think people realize that the ESPN style PR hits on Jeter are purpose driven- in a manner that isn’t good for the Miami baseball community. Jeter doesn’t unilaterally ‘run a billion-dollar company,’ he has many stakeholders involved and many long-time fully qualified professionals. He is a baseball face for the baseball operations department and the ownership group.
It does annoy me that readers seem to be taking these one-sided, agenda driven hit pieces at face value, and then having nearly identical true-believer reactions. It’s easy to dislike Jeter but also dislike Fox News style sports reporting trying to demonize him for not spending as much as CAA/Boras et al/wealthier owners mad about revenue sharing would like.
Where is the outrage that Tampa might trade Longoria, or Pittsburgh McCutchen? It would be annoying to see the Skip Bayless style ESPN writers take aim at those beleaguered baseball communities, even if they had a player I didn’t like as a face of their ownership group.
I’ve heard reports that Stanton would not mind staying in Miami. He has a nice house, he is getting paid, and it’s not like he hasn’t been on a losing team before. If he is truly willing to stay, and truly refuses to go anywhere but the Dodgers, then Miami’s threat about moving other players doesn’t mean anything.
If that is true, then there is little or no reason for Stanton to accept a trade to SF or ST.L. He can simply return to his nice house. But that doesn’t solve the Marlin’s payroll problems and keeps trade talks with the Dodgers going.
What it does is give the Dodgers a deadline to step up to the plate and make the Marlins a formal offer. If they don’t do so by the beginning of the Winter Meetings and Stanton exercises his no-trade clause against going to SF or STL, then the Marlins will have to move on and start the process of trading other players. They cannot wait any longer than that and still get maximum value for Ozuna, Yelich, and the others they will be forced to trade.
Exactly, which is why the Marlins have just about no leverage, and Stanton and the Dodgers split the rest. Depending on how pissed Stanton is at the new management, he can really fuck up their plans.
Meh. I think you’re assuming far too much effect from the Marlins’ speculative reticence to bring back an “unhappy” Stanton. They should not (and should not appear to) give a single f*ck about that happenstance.
The Marlins (reportedly) need to drop payroll. Unless the Dodgers arrive at some trade proposal which eats as much salary (or close to) what SF and/or StL are willing to eat, the Marlins should hold fast.
Agreed that the Dodgers could likely arrive at a trade that would be a discount in prospects to what SF and StL are likely offering, but not a material discount on the money.
There is no reason for the Marlins to trade Stanton other than to save money. If they aren’t saving the necessary money, then there is no purpose to trading Stanton.
What a complete crock.
First off, the Marlins do not have to trade Stanton, they need to lower payroll. They prefer to trade Stanton, but trading Ozuna, Yelich, Prado, & Gordon would perform the same function in terms of salary savings. The Marlins have already said that they will do exactly that if Stanton turns down the trade options they present him and they cannot wait much longer to do so or they lose their window. The latest they can wait is the Winter Meetings.
2nd, the Marlins are in control of IF Stanton is traded. If they don’t get both salary reduction and the prospects they want, they are under no obligation to trade Stanton at all. It does not matter what Stanton wants, if the Marlins do not get the offer they want then they simply will not trade him.
3rd, Stanton has much more control than the Dodgers and that control is limited to this, he gets to say yay or nay after the Marlins find suitors that will offer the package the Marlins want. There are two suitors today that the Marlins are willing to accept the terms of a trade. Stanton has a choice and he has to make it by this weekend or he will have no choice at all this offseason.
4th, the Marlins can be absolutely sure that if Stanton is still a Marlin on opening day that he will opt out after 2020. That is certainly not a bad thing for the team. At $77 million, the Marlins would be getting a great bargain for the peak years of the face of their franchise. In 2021 they will have a new TV contract and ballpark naming rights deal that will add $80+ million in revenue. They will have no payroll limitations at that point.
5th, trading Ozuna, Yelich, Gordon, and Prado would set back any plans at contention for a couple of years, but trading those players would net them a much larger influx of prospects and young talent. It is obvious from their desire to keep that young core and trade away only one player that the Marlins ownership is looking to contend sooner rather than later.
The Dodgers are simply not a consideration in this at all until they make a formal offer. They have zero control over what happens unless they step up to the plate and meet the Marlins demands for Staanton. Right now they are not even in the conversation. Even if the Dodgers do make a formal offer, the Marlins are in control because they have no need or obligation to trade Stanton for a bad offer. They can simply trade other players to meet their goals.
Agreed (with most of this).
The foundational premise of Jeff’s argument is that the Marlins’ ownership cares more about PR and about avoiding having an allegedly pouting Stanton on the team than saving actual money.
lol wut? Who really thinks the Marlins’ ownership prioritizes having good PR and happy players over cash?
If there’s anything that’s clear from this process, it’s that the Marlins prioritize money. If the Dodgers don’t eat Stanton’s contract (at least close to something approaching what SF and StL are willing to eat), no trade.
If the Marlins ownership cared about PR, they would be begging for a reset button. They have been a PR nightmare.
Wordy, but accurate take on what is going on. I think the key thing you said is that the Marlins have to get their tails in gear if Stanton doesn’t accept a trade this weekend. If the Dodgers make an offer that is as good as the Giants or Cardinals then its a no-brainer, but as many have said they have luxury tax problems so it’s pretty likely that they don’t pull the trigger. That means Stanton either has to choose the Giants or the Cardinals or on Monday the Marlins go to plan B and start trading away whoever else they can to lower payroll down to $90 million.
There are some good points here, but the Marlins can’t be sure that he’ll opt out after 2020. They can think that he’s very likely to do it even if he would be taking some moderate discount on his post-2020 contract, but what if the discount would be really big? If a couple of his next three seasons look like 2016, which was injury-shortened with a 116 wRC+, then the 7 years, $200+ million that Stanton is due after 2020 looks well above his free agent market value.
This site is really pushing the Stanton to LA meme almost every day, though LA pretty plainly doesn’t see value in the deal.
The site seems to pump out a lot of articles supporter big money player value now- I very much doubt the site will even have 3 articles critical of a free agent signing this offseason. So far none. This has been true for a few years now, fangraphs authors suggested the Span signing, loved the Billy Butler signing, recommended $60m for Bautista two seasons ago and 3yrs/75m last offseason, loved the Sean Rodriguez signing, recommended Melencon at 3/60 as a ‘great thing to have,’ suggested 5 years for Cepedes at 120+, said Desmond is likely worth a bit more than 3/$51m, praised the Morales pickup and predicted a career high in HRs, said Weiters at 2/$21 was a perfectly reasonable deal the only problem being team fit, etc. – is always pumping out articles to encourage free agent signings of mediocre vets and otherwise hype up the value of large contracts.
Here is the top 50 FA article from last year.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-50-free-agents/
Nearly all of these acquisitions were very poor, which is why all the smart clubs are hardly spending at on all free agents- as the cost per added WAR, particularly for marginal players, has far exceeded the value of added WAR. Fangraphs used to be outstanding at pointing out the terrible value of free agency, but now rarely ever writes anything critical about a free agent deal: although Hosmer will likely be this offseason’s single exception.
I can only remember 2-3 articles in the past 3 years critical of any free agent signings- and only on players where the whole industry critiqued the deals immediately: Kennedy, Davis, …. and for my memory that is it. Can anyone name a single other FA signing that fangraphs has been critical of in the past 4 years?
Agree with all of this btw.
Additionally, Stanton is worth surplus value this year and the next few years- so the Marlins do have to shred a little less money if they project to be in the wild card mix (i.e. with Stanton and their other OFs) than if they blow it up and are sure to be terrible.
The only slight disagreement I’d have is that I’m not sure the Marlins are actually signaling that Ozuna and Yelich would have to go- have I missed that? I know logically they’d have to trade some high earners and they have very few such tradable players that make anything, but Gordon, Prado, Volquez, Chen, Tazawa & Ziegler combine to make about $55m. Realmuto, Bour, Dietrich, Rojas, Straily plus Gordon might be candidates to package with some of the dead weight before giving up on keeping Yelich and Ozuna. Gordon should be easy to move, so Miami might only have to move two other deadweight players, and with Realmuto et al being league average (or near) regulars on minimal money, clubs may have interest in a Bour/Tazawa package for example, or Straily/Dietrich/Prado.
I strongly agree that by keeping Stanton the Marlins make it very likely that he opts out, as he could miss a good chunk of time and underwhelm a bit in the next 3 years but still get a somewhat similar deal in a location he strongly prefers. It’s just media nonsense to hype up the LA deal and pretend Miami is past a point of no return with Stanton.
Basically Time controls everyones fate. Marlins will need to pursue Plan B at some point and Giants/Cards can’t wait around for Stanton. One or all may pull out soon and guess what, Stanton stays in Miami
Stanton can wait 3 years to be a FA but still no guarantee Dodgers will want to pay him what he is worth. Name the last FA the Dodgers signed from outside. They trade for signed players or extend their own, they dont hand out 100+ million dollar deals to strangers. Not their MO under this ownership group.
All this whining about wanting to be a Dodger will hurt him in negotiations as a FA with the Dodgers. Wise up kid, go to SF , the-Dodgers arch rival and pound Dodgers pitching silly for 3 years or even NY/Boston for 3 years where you can put up big numbers, and then have the Dodgers salivating for your services in 3 years
Watch your numbers plummet in Miami when Jeter sells off the hitters providing you support last year. Nobody going to pitch to you and then maybe you wont be able to opt out. Miami for life dude.
So people are saying that Stanton can either accept a trade to SF or stay in MIA and lose. But don’t these people realize that he will continue to lose if he goes to SF? It makes perfect sense for him to stay in MIA if this is his only choice.
Loria got exactly what he wanted–he effectively spent another team’s money to keep his best player, get MLB off his back for hoarding revenue sharing, then unloaded the team at a high price. We can say that the Marlin’s new FO is blowing it, but they were dealt (or dealt themselves) a very weak hand. Loria understood that, bad a financial situation the Marlins might have been, they had two very potent selling points–a new taxpayer subsidized stadium, and the scarcity of being a MLB franchise for sale. Stanton has a bit of the upper hand, but let’s not forget that if he blocks a trade that seems decent for the Marlins, he’s going to get a tremendous amount of blame. Imagine playing on a losing team and hearing it from the fans at the same time.
If Stanton goes to SF, will he change his name again, to Giantcarlo Stanton?
This is such an interesting bit of game theory, with 3 players. All 3 are highly motivated to signal they could walk away if they don’t get what they want. In theory, the Dodgers, Marlins, and Stanton could all easily win, but it’s complicated.
1) The Dodgers and Stanton have the same goal.
2) But, the Dodgers can’t talk to Stanton without the Marlins’ permission. So they can’t coordinate, at least not yet.
3) The Dodgers have to signal to the Marlins they don’t want a deal, but to Stanton that they do want a deal (to keep Stanton on his “team”).
4) The Marlins are essentially the “opponent” of both Stanton and the Dodgers (at the moment) and they have to agree as much as Stanton and the Dodgers do. Their goal is to convince Stanton to go to whichever team bids the most (Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers). In essence, their goal is to convince Stanton that the Dodgers are *not* on Stanton’s team (that they don’t care enough to make a deal) and he should agree to join some other team (unless the Dodgers pony up).
In theory, I think Stanton has the least control but the least to lose if he walks away (since if he doesn’t get what he wants, he can say “screw it” and keep his huge contract and nice house in Miami). The Marlins want to save money. The Dodgers want to win. Those are more time-sensitive goals.
The Marlins definitely have the most control, but also seem the most desperate, since they’ve been working pretty hard to trade Stanton and both the Dodgers and Stanton have been passive. But they may seem the most desperate because they have the most control and have to do things, and so us thinking they’re more desperate might just be the requirements of their position.
The Dodgers are the ones who seem the least interested, but arguably have the most to lose if they don’t get him because they want to win and you only get a few shots.
I have zero idea how this all ends up. I want to know how it all goes down, when it does go down.
IMO the Dodgers don’t want Stanton because he isn’t a good value for them.
Stanton’s agent Joel Wolfe is working hard to get a media meme going, where articles like this are written putting some industry focus on the Dodgers to get the deal done. It very likely will not work, but that is what good agents do.
I very much doubt the Dodgers are doing anything to signal anything to Stanton- just as other smart clubs haven’t sniffed. Joel Wolfe is simply drumming up a ton of press nonsense and finding lots of takers to print absurd nonsense pretending that the Marlins have no control over the situation and the Dodgers have some huge choice to make.
Giancarlo Stanton: Giants’ control? Naa.
I’ve heard from players Stanton used to play with in HS (who played travel/milb w Stanton) that Stanton has no intention of leaving Miami unless it is to LA. It is all second hand, and could be false, but I do not think he would go to SF or STL. They said to Stanton warm weather/being around scantily clad latina women is the deciding factor. I.e he doesn’t think STL would have the women that would meet his needs/and SF is too cold. They said it was literally LA, and LA only from the beginning. And that he would rather go back to Miami then go anywhere else that is not LA. Also he doesn’t care about going to a winner.
And he clearly doesn’t care about what pisses off “authority”. He openly butted heads with Barry Bonds, apparently going as far as to requesting that he gets fired.
Only one problem with that, Stanton has publicly said otherwise. You may want to get better sources.
To that point, direct Stanton quote from an interview with Jon Heyman about 2 months ago:
“I don’t want to rebuild … I’ve lost for seven years”
https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-stanton-opens-up-about-marlins-future-and-chasing-60/
I feel like they should have negotiated a mutual option to move up the opt-out. That would make things so much easier on everyone. Is that the next thing in these contracts?
Some have noted that this is an important decision for Stanton, it is his life and career. Obviously, whatever happens will have a lot larger effect on Stanton than on the Marlins or their ownership…they just need to shed payroll, the Marlins will effectively be the same…they aren’t competing any time soon regardless, with or without Stanton.
If Miami doesn’t get what they want or need via a Stanton trade, they can pursue other options. Their primary goal is short-term salary relief…they can trade actual talent that’ll be gone in a few years anyway and tack on some of their copious dead money.
If Stanton rejects all trades that are not to the Dodgers, he has no alternatives. He’ll be a Marlin for a while…and maybe all 3 years because if the Marlins get the salary relief they need by trading other assets, they don’t have to trade Stanton at ALL…so suddenly the Marlins have all the leverage in what they demand in trade. Plus, it is likely that Stanton and his contract are never going to be more attractive than they are right now…a year old and a year away from his MVP year he may not have the option of going anywhere.
So the question is how willing is Stanton to make a decision that has a huge effect on his life and career, but only affects what Miami does, but not their trajectory as an organization?
I find myself feeling bad for stanton. He’s a great player, he’s made it clear that he wants to play for his hometown team, and they’re acting like they don’t want him.
I don’t feel bad.
If he wanted to play in Los Angeles, he shouldn’t have signed a 13-year deal to play in Miami.
True, but now the marlins don’t want him either. It’s a demoralizing situation to be in.
They don’t want him at a retail price that probably precludes them from being able to afford to resign their 100% lock first-ballot hall of famer in 2018.
Stanton is savvy enough to understand the Dodgers are interested and benefit from playing coy just as much as he does.
Stanton is still a long ways from being a “100% lock first-ballot hall of famer”. He has a legitimate path to get there if he puts up more seasons close to 2016, but at this point he’s a player who, through the age of 27, has 34.1 career fWAR and 3 seasons with 5+ WAR.
His top 10 batter similarity scores through age 27, at Baseball Reference, include two Hall of Famers (Killebrew and Reggie Jackson, at #8 or #10) and one player who probably would be a Hall of Famer but for PED’s (Manny Ramirez). His top 3 batter similarity scores are Juan Gonzalez, Canseco, and Strawberry, none of whom eventually came all that close to a Hall of Fame career.
You misread what I said. The Dodgers’ hesitance has to do with the need to resign 100% first ballot hall of famer Clayton Kershaw next offseason for a significantly higher AAV than his current 33mm.
Sorry, that was a misread on my part. I agree with that take on Kershaw.
The Dodgers might be able to get away with a package that is thin on actually good prospects, but what they won’t be able to do is get away with an offer that is substantially lower in terms of the money they are taking on. The whole point of this to the Marlins is to get rid of the salary. If the trade doesn’t do that, it won’t happen.
If he’s so set on LA why haven’t the Angels been mentioned?
I think this went out the window when they re-signed Upton, but Stanton to the Angels always made a lot of sense to me. They can absorb a huge contract for a great player and have very few prospects to trade.
They probably haven’t done it because of Kole Calhoun, but I’m sure they could find someone to take him off their hands and maybe send something nice back in return.
You really cannot discuss leverage unless you know what everyone wants.
With Stanton we need to know if he really wants to go to L.A. especially and, if so, how set he is upon it. For that matter, we also need to know how much he wants to get out of Miami. If he has decided that the only two teams he is willing to play for are L.A. and Miami, then, yes, L.A. has significant leverage on any trade. If he really wants out of Miami and would prefer to go to L.A., then that leverage is significantly less.
Then we have the matter of what L.A. is doing. I think any team would like to have Stanton, but they may not be as enthusiastic about it as you might think. If it is revealed that L.A. is really not all that interested, that might change Stanton’s position. When your goal is impossible, it tends to reconfigure priorities.
As for Miami, I would be worried that Stanton will turn into a pumpkin followed by his opt-in, giving them their own version of the Pujols contract. Any team that wants Stanton can use that as leverage.