The Early Returns on Manny Machado, MLB Shortstop
Before this season, Manny Machado was a talented young player who’s remained something less than elite due to injuries and a bat that was closer to average than star. He added offense to his game this season and earned his status as a star-level player. Debuting just a month removed from his 20th birthday back in 2012, Machado combined an above-average bat with amazing defense, but a switch flipped this season and Machado joined Mike Trout and Bryce Harper as one of the very best players in the game. Machado is one of the game’s very best third baseman defensively, but a couple times this week, the Orioles have experimented with him at shortstop. While the long-term implications for Machado and the Orioles are unclear, early returns suggest a happy outcome for the club and the 23-year-old, were he to return to his original spot on the diamond.
Drafted out of high school as a shortstop, Machado was projected to remain at shortstop given his solid hands and arm, although there were whispers that somewhere down the line his body might outgrow the position. The Orioles certainly expected his future was as a shortstop, putting him there for all but two of his 208 minor league games. When the Orioles found themselves in a pennant race in 2012, they already had one of the best defensive shortstops in the game with J.J. Hardy so they moved Machado to third base. The move worked, as the Orioles won a wild-card spot and an ensuing wild-card game to make the American League Division Series. With Hardy continuing to provide excellent defense, Machado has remained at third base until now.
Machado has provided amazing defense at third since his debut in 2012, but both 2013 and 2014 ended early for Machado as he has had surgery to each knee, with the 2013 injury representing the more serious of the two. Perhaps with some uncertainty regarding Machado’s ability to return to a pre-surgery level — the sort of level that would allow him to return to shortstop — as well as a recognition that J.J. Hardy still offered very good defense at shortstop, the team signed Hardy to a three-year, $40 million contract extension. Two knee surgeries, continued good defensive play from Hardy, and a three-year contract extension for Hardy provided little impetus for moving Machado back to shortstop.
By the numbers, Machado has been one of the best third baseman over the decade and a half for which we have UZR data. By way of illustration, the chart below features the highest UZR/150 for third basemen over that time period. (Note: chart is sortable).
| Name | Inn | UZR | UZR/150 |
| Manny Machado | 3741.1 | 50.9 | 18.8 |
| Evan Longoria | 8955.1 | 84.3 | 14.6 |
| Adrian Beltre | 17093.0 | 163.3 | 13.8 |
| Corey Koskie | 4590.0 | 46.3 | 13.7 |
| Nolan Arenado | 3177.2 | 37.5 | 13.5 |
| Scott Rolen | 11029.1 | 109.0 | 13.3 |
| Josh Donaldson | 4410.1 | 37.4 | 11.1 |
| Joe Crede | 7334.2 | 51.0 | 9.2 |
| David Bell | 5593.0 | 33.1 | 8.3 |
| Mike Moustakas | 5395.0 | 28.1 | 6.8 |
We know that Machado has been great at third base. He won the Fielding Bible award for third base in 2013, and still received votes in 2014, finishing seventh, despite playing only half the season. Given the innings disparities, a little more context for the chart above can help frame Machado’s defense. After all, Machado’s innings are only through his age-22 season, and defense tends to decline with age. Looking at every four-year period beginning with 2002, the highest UZR/150 is listed below (min. 3000 innings).
| Years | UZR/150 (min. 3000 innings) | |
| Scott Rolen | 2002-2005 | 20.5 |
| Adrian Beltre | 2003-2006 | 19.4 |
| Evan Longoria | 2008-2011 | 18.8 |
| Manny Machado | 2012-2015 | 18.8 |
| Evan Longoria | 2007-2010 | 18.6 |
| Pedro Feliz | 2005-2008 | 18.1 |
| Adrian Beltre | 2002-2005 | 17.8 |
| Scott Rolen | 2004-2007 | 17.0 |
| Evan Longoria | 2009-2012 | 16.8 |
Machado’s recent run is one of the very best over the last decade and, even with the knee surgeries, Machado still looks great out in the field. While Hardy is signed for two more years and $28.5 million, he is having a miserable season at the plate and was put on the disabled list more than a week ago with a groin issue, his second stint on the DL this season (shoulder). With just a month left in the season and the Orioles in a tailspin that has removed them from the playoff race, seeing what they have with Machado at shortstop make sense.
While Machado had not played a single inning at shortstop in Major League Baseball before August 23, and had not recorded a single start there until Monday, he has spent some time fielding in the shortstop’s general area.
Teams implement the shift in different ways. Some teams opt to send their third baseman behind the second-base bag, leaving the shortstop in his normal position to cover the largest area of land. Given Machado’s range and athleticism, the Orioles have felt comfortable leaving Machado to cover the entire left side of the infield. In the footage below, Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas attempted to beat the shift with the bunt. Machado defied him.
Moustakas is not a fast runner, but he does have six infield hits and three bunt hits out of eight attempts. On a different play where Machado held down the left side of the infield on the shift, Machado showed range going to his left and throwing out Shin-Soo Choo.
While he had played the shortstop’s role on those times the Orioles have shifted, he did not get a start at the position until Monday. With two knee surgeries in his past, there might be some question of whether he could return to the position he played so well before reaching the majors. In his first opportunity at shortstop, he made an error in an extra-innings loss to the Twins. Despite the initial error, his skills seem to have transferred quite nicely in his first two starts. The 80-grade arm that was useful as a third baseman is at least as useful at shortstop. In limited action, his range also looks to be shortstop quality. Here is a play in his first start at shortstop where Machado shows off the arm and range, going deep in the hole before making an incredibly strong throw to beat catcher Rene Rivera.
Buck Showalter said that Machado seemed energized by the position switch, and Machado echoed the comfort he seemed to have on the field with his statements afterward:
“It came back pretty easy,” Machado said. “I’ve been playing that my whole life. I didn’t play third base until I got up here. It just came natural. I was out there just trying to make the plays and as the game went on, I just started feeling more comfortable out there.”
Machado is used to starting double plays, having initiated 25 of them this season (second in MLB behind Kyle Seager) and 80 over the past three seasons (third in MLB behind Seager and Josh Donaldson), and he had no problem starting the double play on Monday.
Perhaps one of the more difficult aspects of the third-base-to-shortstop move is making the turn on the double play. The quality of Machado’s arm is beyond doubt even while throwing at odd angles or without the feet completely set, and it could make up for potential deficiencies in other areas. The footwork can be tricky, but Machado passed his first test last night.
With J.J. Hardy still signed for two more seasons, Machado’s position of the near, and likely long-term, future is still probably third base. Should Hardy’s bat decline even further to be unplayable — or should he suffer more injuries — Machado should provide an option at shortstop. Machado gives the Orioles added flexibility with the bench should they have a solid bat who can play some third base. The transition is still in its early stages, and it is likely to be temporary or perhaps infrequent, but right now, Machado still looks like he has the chops to slide over to shortstop.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
What I learned is that Even Longoria is the best defense 3B right meow.
And he also has accumulated 200 HR and 250 Doubles in his first 8 seasons. No other third baseman in history can say that.
What’s up pussycat?
Did you just say meow?
Chipper Jones had 253 HR’s and 271 Doubles his first 8 years. He missed basically all of 93 due to a knee injury so 94 was his first year.
Very big Longoria fan here. Does it look like his head moves quite a bit more than usual (the last year or so) as he strides toward the ball, especially when he hits vRHP. He seems to wait back more vLHP. His head moves both forward and slightly to the lefthanded batter’s box on his swing.
I ain’t no hittin’ coach so there’s that.
When Manny came up in 2012, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that he was that magical shortstop of the future. Then time passed slowly, as time has a tendency to do, and we all forgot about Manny at shortstop. I mean, it was pretty easy to forget, since he was electric at 3B. Manny was the proving the validity of the defensive spectrum every night, it seemed. But now I feel like we’re all remembering that this was always supposed to happen, even though we forgot about it for a while.
Somewhat surprised that Eric Chavez didn’t rate on either of the 3B UZR leaderboards above, given he was a much-ballyhooed wizard at the hot corner (and won multiple GGs to boot).
Meow.
Part of the reason is that UZR only goes back to 2002, while Chavez became a regular in 1999 and injuries started to take their toll by 2006. From 2002-2005, however, he had a UZR/150 of at least +8 in 3 out of those 4 seasons so he was a very good defender.
UZR/150, eh?
more intuitive than 150/UZR but I guess you are right, it’s the same thing… eh?
Josh Donaldson is the best all-around third baseman in baseball right now, and he’s almost certainly going to win the MVP. But Manny is magical, the things he does are just amazing. I do not know how many people have won multiple gold gloves at multiple positions, but Manny is definitely going to win more than a few at shortstop.
Just hope his knees are up to it.
JJ Hardy turned into a bust, as so many players who sign LT deals do. Has to be a reason for that. The obvious one is players still doing PED’s, taking the risk, and once they get their payoff, get off since they have too much to lose. Or maybe they slack off on their offseason workouts, or both,
What? He signed a 3-year deal. Just like the 3-year deal he signed with the Orioles the first time. He’s a 33 year old middle infielder who still provides elite defense and has dealt with injuries this year. I don’t see much validity to your post.
No, the “obvious reason” would be that because of service time, most players don’t sign LT deals until they’re near the peak of their careers, so it’s all downhill from there. That would be assuming your premise is true, but you offer no evidence of that. I suspect you’re remembering the players on LT deals who bust immediately, and not remembering the many more who don’t, and therefore concluding incorrectly that “so many” such players bust. It’s on you to provide some data to back your assertion. Without that, you appear to be no more than just another troll more interested in throwing around PED accusations than advancing the discussion.
I don’t know that anything is obvious, but just looking at what we know to be true, without emotion, pft’s theory is worth considering.
We know when players were most heavily using steroids because there are reports. We can correlate age-related decline with that period and other periods in baseball history.
I have not run these numbers and prefer to let somebody at this site who’s more conversant with advanced statistics do it. But we have seen in many places the argument that baseball’s aging curve is returning closer to historical average in a post-steroid era. Surely some players are still using, but it’s much more significant that more players are not.
That leaderboard reminds me that Scott Rolen was a brilliant defender at 3rd base.
Yep I didn’t realize how good he was until I got to watch him when he was with the Jays. He made plays Donaldson only dreams of….
Does hardy have the arm for third? Maybe a straight swap of the two could work. Get the younger fresher legs at short and hope a move to third helps hardy stay healthy. Entirely dependant on how machados knees feel as well though.
You know, I remember early on in Manny’s career having the idea that Hardy could move to 2B. He doesn’t have a super strong arm, so it seems like 2B makes sense? That would, in effect, move Schoop to 3B. I don’t know if that makes any sense, or if that’s just shifting deck chairs. But all 3 guys are somewhere between great and electric defenders, so maybe this does make some sense. Either way, I feel like the O’s need to find a way to put their best defender at the most important position.
I am not sure where the Machado-at-SS thing goes, considering Hardy is signed for 2 more years. JJ had a terrible season this year, hopefully because of injuries, and so he might bounce back next year somewhat. It’s not like there’s a third baseman waiting in the minors to come up and produce, so I don’t see much reason to put Manny at SS barring some major roster shifting. If he can spell Hardy there a few times next year to keep JJ healthy that would be good.
I am so happy this article was written.
Fangraphs is really trying to troll me these past few days, aren’t they? First we get a Brandon Moss article. Hey Brandon, thanks for sucking in Pittsburgh but now mashing HRs for St. Louis by the way! Then we get a Sano article, now you get to remind me that I drafted a high school pitcher with the #2 overall pick when I could have had Manny Machado as my SS! AAAAAAAAAH
Bigger injury risk: Machado and his knees at SS, or Rendon and his everything at 2B?
Maybe Rendon more likely to be injured at 2B, but Machado is harder to replace and therefore the “bigger RISK?”
Either way, there is little to be GAINED from the risk, because their teams’ other 3B are no better than their teams’ other middle infielders.
Manny’s knee injuries weren’t typical trumatic injuries. During his first surgery they found his patellofemoral ligament is longer (just genetics). No one was shocked when he had the same injury to the other knee. Dismayed, but not shocked.
Now that the pre-existing condition has been fixed in both knees, he shouldn’t be at any higher risk.