The Ethier Situation
I can’t decide whether the Dodger’s situation this season is depressing, funny, or so depressing that it is funny. James Loney’s continued presence and playing time is sad/ridiculous in itself — maybe manager Don Mattingly thinks his own 1995 season with the Yankees wasn’t so bad (he was Donnie Freaking Baseball, after all!), and Loney has been almost that “good.” But today’s Donnie Baseball-related news (and we know that’s what brings you here to FanGraphs) isn’t about Loney, but about right fielder Andre Ethier.
Ethier has been playing on a bad knee that will require surgery in the off-season, and reportedly feels like the Dodgers don’t care. Unsurprisingly, neither Mattingly nor Ned ‘Snakeskin Boots‘ Colletti weren’t all that pleased about Ethier’s public comments. You can follow the links for the he said-he said. It does seem, given the situation between Ethier and management, the organization’s financial and (non-)competitive situation, and Ethier’s coming jump in salary, that he is probably on his way out as a Dodger. Unfortunately, assuming they plan on trading Ethier in the off-season, he doesn’t have all that much value.
The Dodgers don’t have to trade Ethier, of course. Maybe this situation will calm down, the ownership situation will get resolved (stranger things have happened), and/or management will decide (wrongly) that they can contend in 2012. But assuming they do want to trade him, what is he worth?
Ethier is finishing the second year of a two-year, $15.25 million contract he signed for 2010 and 2011. However, he still has one more year of arbitration left (it will count as his fourth). Given that he’s making $9.25 million this season (before considering the playing time incentives in his contract), conservatively speaking he would probably make something like $12 million in arbitration.
Ethier, 29, is having a down season at the plate (.286/.363/.411, .338 wOBA), and has hit progressively worse since peaking with a 133 wRC+ in 2008. ZiPS sees him as a .340 hitter for the rest of the season, but with only 114 projected plate appearances left, the error margin is a bit steep for projecting true talent. The August 22 update from OLIVER’s true-talent projections see him as a .370 wOBA hitter this season, and a .359 wOBA hitter next season. Next season is what we’re interested in, and a .359 wOBA is about 24 runs above average per 700 plate appearances.
Fielding is interesting. Prior to 2011, both fielding metrics and the Fans Scouting Report saw him as a poor defender. For 2011 so far, however, both UZR and Dewan have him about 5 runs above average. That’s a bit encouraging, but just as past performance trumped the current season in the offensive projections, we can’t let the current season let us forget what he’s done defensively in the past. I have him projected as five runs below average in the corner outfield positions for 2012.
Putting it all together: + 24 offense – 7.5 positional adjustment – 5 fielding + 20 NL replacement level = 32 runs above replacement. After adjusting for playing time, I have Ethier around 2.5 WAR for 2012.
At this point, it is difficult to say what the average cost of a marginal win will be in the off-season. Assuming it increases to $5.5 million, that would mean Ethier projects to be worth about $14 million dollars. If he gets around $12 million dollars in arbitration, that leaves about $2 million dollars of surplus. That is meaningful, but not quite as much as some might expect. Straight up, it would probably bring back a C-level prospect of some sort. However, there are other factors at work. Teams are likely to be cautious when trading for a player coming off of surgery, and that might hurt Ethier’s trade value. The Dodgers could always throw in money to increase their return, but the organization’s financial health is much worse than Ethier’s physical health. I guess it beats non-tendering him.
“It beats non-tendering him”: just another cherry on top of the Dodgers’ 2012.
Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.
About five minutes after the season ends, Colletti’s phone rings: “Hi Ned? It’s Alex calling from Toronto …” and about ten minutes later Ethier will be sent north.
yawn. that’s the go to assumption with any “problem player” these days. ethier wants to be a red sock, and a red sock he shall be.
The Red Sox aren’t going to acquire another left handed outfielder.
the red sox are shelling out huge change for carl crawford to blow chunks, they’re not going to pay ethier $15 mil for similar performance but less upside.
I would hope a pitcher would accompany him because the Jays need quality starting or relief pitching more than they need an outfielder. Ethier would be battling Snider and Thames for LF.
I think most people believe he’s actually worse than -5 in right field, at least -10. Could he actually increase his value with a move to first base, if he’s say, a -3/650 defender there?
What makes this situation all the more hilarious (or tragic if you prefer), is that the Dodgers dealt away Ethier’s heir apparent, Trayvon Robinson, in their mindless deadline deal with the Red Sox/Mariners. It’s possible they could insert Gerald Sands into Ethier’s spot if they dealt him (or more likely, put Gwynn in RF with Sands taking LF), but doing so would likely mean taking a hit on defense…and of course would mean that Sands can’t replace the guy he really ought to, the offensive black hole that is James Loney.
2011 has really been a tragedy of errors for the Dodger organization.
Dodgers minor league system is top heavy with good outfielders. Jerry Sands will likely be roaming the OF next year, with others on the way after 2012 when Ethier’s contract runs out.
This Ethier story is getting overhyped. Much of it has already been debunked. The LA Times author over-sensationalized most of it – and Ethier has said some dumb things about being non-tendered in the past.
vr, Xei
The dodgers have no good position playing prospects. Jerry Sands is okay, but after him, there’s no one. Seriously, no one.
Trayvon Robinson strikes out too much to be a full-time regular. If he’s going to strike out this much then he better bring some above-average Mark Reynolds-type homerun pop.
Robinson is more of a Corey Patterson type as of right now.
Oh, I agree, there are a lot of issues with Robinson (has played in very friendly run environments in the CAL League and the PCL, sky high BABIP, Ks too much, defensive abilities are undetermined, etc) but at the same time, he’s just about MLB ready…so whether he sinks or swims is yet to be seen. Giving that up for the package the Dodgers got, especially given the rest of the issues with the team, was shortsighted at best and could become even worse if the Ethier situation continues to deteriorate. If nothing else he would have provided an option with some upside.
As for the Dodgers’ minor league situation…to be blunt, they aren’t top heavy with good anything. With Robinson out, they’ve got Sands (better suited to 1B, lacks the instincts and range for full time outfield work) and I guess Kyle Russell (though his strikeout rate makes Robinson’s look good, and he’s a 25 year old in AA). Most of the other OFs in the system, like Landry, Baldwin, Garcia, and Cavazos, are either far away or disappointing in the low minors. I wouldn’t want to count on any of them.
Trayvon’s skill sets are easily replaceable. What the Dodgers don’t have is catching depth. FedEx will probably have the same kind of major league production as Trayvon (adjusted for position). Sands, Silverio, Van Slyke, Russell all could easily fill in with the same kind of competency as Trayvon.
In the end the most likely scenario is that Trayvon ends up nothing more than a 4th/5th outfielder and FedEx as a league average (or slightly below) major league catcher. Not exactly a big impact deal and nothing to criticize heavily taking all circumstances into consideration.
Ethier has been a baby in the past. His mood will sweeten when he gets his payday. People are likely blowing this out of proportion.
I hear FedEx projects to be at best a backup on a good team.
Forgot Alfredo Silverio or Scott Van Slyke. Either one will be promoted and likely be given a chance to showcase themselves in September.
Also, Joc Pederson is another guy a lot of Dodgers fans are excited about. He’s 19, but has intriguing discipline, speed, and power combination. I could see him being sped up the organization.
The Dodgers system isn’t as bad as most think it is. People shoot on it because of the ownership situation and bust like James Loney and Greg Miller, but Logan White and DeJon Watson are two highly respected execs. that have filled the organization with high arm pitchers and toolsy players. I mean, they’re one bad trade and injury away from having a core of Carlos Santana, Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and Rubby De La Rosa with decent complementary players.
(monday morning spelling… sorry)
http://www.dailysportspages.com/forums/index.php?forums/los-angeles-dodgers.50/
You seem to have good dodgers insight. Check out the aforementioned forum and share your thoughts, opinions, criticisms. Enjoy.
With their aggressive activity recently, I have a feeling Cleveland might be heavily involved on this one (well, baring a Fukudome resigning)
Would create an OF of (R to L) Choo, Sizemore, Ethier with Brantley available to fill in anywhere needed. Makes for nice flexibility for when Hafner and/or Sizemore take their DL trips, as well as provides the more balanced OBP + some-Pop game the team seems to be focusing on. Wouldn’t lock them into a longterm contract like the FA market almost certainly would, but still provides some future flexibility.
oops, forgot he was Left Handed – that screws this up for the Tribe who have Lefties everywhere else (All four others I mentioned are also Lefties)
Nevermind
I also think that Brantley’s a more interesting player than Ethier at this point in their careers. Trevor Crowe isn’t a bad 5th OF and the Indians could use one of their 9 (hyperbole) utility infielders to fill the 4th OF slot. Donald or Phelps might fit in nicely there.
while I understand what you’re saying, I would direct you back to Brantley being the 4th OF behind guys like Sizemore and Pronk. Likelihood of the fourth outfielder playing a full years worth of games is pretty high here.
Realistically though, the team has catcher locked in for a long time and prospects/youngsters growing out of their ears for the infield (as you eluded to). Upgrading the offense for 2012 does go straight through Brantley for the Indians, and I really see them taking that route. Brantley and Crow (imo) will probably have to do one more year of 4th/5th duty with high playing time for injuries.
It will just almost certainly be someone who doesn’t hit Left Handed though (so, sorry Ethier)
Geez Matt, are you still mad about getting picked last in sixth grade softball??
Loney is a big guy, he may mash you flat just for fun.
I think it’s pretty well documented and established in all circles that James Loney is some kind of terrible at Major League Baseball. He ought to be carving out a nice career as an organizational soldier in the PCL.
I think you miss the point, which is, they could have an even bigger guy at 1B.
No, the point is Loney may indeed suck, but to contstantly remind everyone of that fact could get you a beat down by the big man himself. It was a joke.
What are you guys talking about? Loney had 268 rbi from 2008-10. He’s awesome.
If writers stop expressing opinions, the site doesn’t exist. In any event, James Loney probably does not read Fangraphs (nothing on here about his play is much worse than what the LA times writers express). And Jerry Sands is bigger.
Bobby Ayala, That total puts him behind such notables as Carlos Quentin, Brian McCann, Jhonny Peralta, Hunter Pence, Derek Lee, Raul Ibanez for RBI for same period.. not exactly stellar work by Either during that timeframe.
correction.. my timeframe is to 2011, though 2008 is start as is yours.
correction 2, loney, not either.
perhaps more important: who gives a fuck how many RBIs he had?
Even less important: what happened to your sarcasm detector?
Cidron: 3 posts to show off your broken sarcasm detector?
http://www.dailysportspages.com/forums/index.php?forums/los-angeles-dodgers.50/
Stop the Jerry Sands hype, he is “turrible”.
Lohse for Ethier makes sense. salaries will match and the Cards will be in the market for another corner OFer if they don’t re-sign Berkman or even trade him now.
Except that’s expecting Kyle Lohse to be worth the same as Andre Ethier. Just because they’re paid the same amount, doesn’t mean they are worth the same.
No way LA is even remotely interested.
why would you say that? In a situation where they’re going to *need* to deal Ethier and he has just 1 yr of control at maybe $12M, no one is going to be busting Ned’s door down to make a deal. Sounds like a fair swap.
Why would you say that, are you sober?
Sure it’s been a week, but Loney is absolutely crushing right now, I don’t think right now is the right time to make fun of Loney being in the lineup when he’s the hottest hitter in baseball the last 8 games (extremely small sample size…which has made his season go from really horrible to a .308 wOBA, which is an accomplishment in itself).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=loneyja01&t=b&year=2011&share=3.76#748-755-sum:batting_gamelogs
18 for his last 35 with 4 hr and 5 doubles. His swing looks better than it has in 3 years. The Dodgers don’t have much outside of Kershaw and Kemp, and right now I feel like Loney deserves some praise, damnit! lol