The First Weekend of College Ball by (Maybe) Predictive Stats
Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.
What follows represents the first such report for the 2017 college campaign, which began last Friday.
As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.
To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.
*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.
Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The three conferences I’ve chosen here represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players. Later editions of this same report will contain more conferences.
*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.
There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current through the weekend’s games.
ACC
Top Batter
Seth Beer, 1B, Clemson (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Sam Fragale, 1B, Virginia Tech (RS-Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Trevor Craport, 3B, Georgia Tech (Jr)
Top Pitcher
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)
Top Starter
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)
Leaderboards
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Beer | Clemson | So | 1B | 14 | 21.4% | 1.000 | .500 | 18.3% | .205 | .308 | 124 |
| Sam Fragale | Virginia Tech | RS-Jr | 1B | 15 | 26.7% | .923 | .667 | 19.4% | .203 | .310 | 123 |
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | Jr | 1B | 14 | 7.1% | .750 | .400 | 15.6% | .186 | .306 | 120 |
| Brett Kinneman | NC State | So | COF | 14 | 7.1% | .583 | .500 | 15.6% | .174 | .308 | 116 |
| Trevor Craport | Georgia Tech | Jr | 3B | 15 | 6.7% | .538 | .364 | 15.4% | .173 | .306 | 115 |
| Drew Ellis | Louisville | Jr | 3B/1B | 12 | 0.0% | .444 | .250 | 14.7% | .161 | .305 | 111 |
| Zack Kone | Duke | So | SS | 16 | 6.3% | .400 | .231 | 15.2% | .163 | .304 | 111 |
| Kyle Fiala | Notre Dame | Sr | SS | 19 | 5.3% | .333 | .235 | 14.6% | .160 | .304 | 111 |
| Kel Johnson | Georgia Tech | Jr | 1B | 13 | 15.4% | .545 | .250 | 17.2% | .169 | .304 | 111 |
| Pavin Smith | Virginia | Jr | 1B | 14 | 7.1% | .429 | .273 | 15.6% | .163 | .305 | 111 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.B. Bukauskas | No. Carolina | Jr | RHP | 6.0 | 23 | 43.5% | 4.3% | 27.3% | 9.0% | 85 |
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | Jr | LHP | 6.0 | 21 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 26.8% | 8.5% | 85 |
| Jacob Hennessy | Clemson | Fr | LHP | 2.2 | 10 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 26.8% | 9.1% | 86 |
| Jacob Stevens | Boston Coll. | So | RHP | 6.0 | 23 | 39.1% | 4.3% | 26.2% | 9.0% | 87 |
| Mathieu Gauthier | NC State | Fr | RHP | 2.2 | 11 | 54.5% | 9.1% | 26.4% | 9.6% | 88 |
| Bennett Sousa | Virginia | Jr | LHP | 1.1 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 26.2% | 9.4% | 88 |
| Jesse Lepore | Miami | Jr | RHP | 6.0 | 18 | 38.9% | 0.0% | 25.5% | 8.7% | 89 |
| Riley Thompson | Louisville | So | RHP | 1.1 | 5 | 80.0% | 0.0% | 25.9% | 9.3% | 89 |
| Andrew McDonald | Virginia Tech | RS-Jr | RHP | 7.2 | 29 | 31.0% | 0.0% | 24.6% | 8.2% | 89 |
| Tyler Holton | Florida St. | So | LHP | 6.0 | 22 | 36.4% | 4.5% | 25.4% | 9.0% | 90 |
Notes
Louisville’s Brendan McKay is essentially the Shohei Otani of college baseball. Ranked fourth among Baseball America’s top-100 college draft prospects, McKay has begun the 2017 season about as strongly as one could reasonably expect, producing one of the top batting and pitching lines among all ACC players. Reports placed him around 93 mph as a pitcher.
Top Batter
Frankie Rios, SS, USC (RS-Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Frankie Rios, SS, USC (RS-Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Frankie Rios, SS, USC (RS-Jr)
Top Pitcher
Luke Heimlich, LHP, Oregon St. (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Luke Heimlich, LHP, Oregon St. (Jr)
Top Starter
Luke Heimlich, LHP, Oregon St. (Jr)
Leaderboards
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Rios | USC | RS-Jr | SS | 16 | 0.0% | .364 | .333 | 12.5% | .150 | .338 | 112 |
| Mitchell Morimoto | Arizona | Jr | COF | 14 | 0.0% | .364 | .500 | 12.8% | .147 | .340 | 112 |
| Lars Nootbaar | USC | So | OF | 14 | 7.1% | .375 | .500 | 14.2% | .148 | .340 | 110 |
| Nick Quintana | Arizona | Fr | 3B | 15 | 13.3% | .364 | .778 | 15.3% | .149 | .344 | 110 |
| David Edson | USC | RS-Sr | COF | 16 | 6.3% | .333 | .400 | 13.8% | .147 | .339 | 110 |
| JJ Matijevic | Arizona | Jr | 1B/2B | 15 | 6.7% | .333 | .385 | 14.0% | .146 | .339 | 109 |
| Nick Kahle | Wash. | Fr | C | 4 | 0.0% | 1.000 | .333 | 14.9% | .150 | .338 | 109 |
| Daniel Amaral | UCLA | So | CF | 9 | 0.0% | .429 | .333 | 13.8% | .145 | .338 | 108 |
| Justin Harrer | Wash. St. | So | COF | 12 | 8.3% | .400 | .222 | 14.6% | .147 | .337 | 108 |
| Nick Madrigal | Oregon St. | So | SS/2B | 13 | 0.0% | .273 | .273 | 13.0% | .140 | .337 | 107 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Heimlich | Oregon St. | Jr | LHP | 5.2 | 23 | 47.8% | 8.7% | 31.5% | 10.2% | 86 |
| Kris Bubic | Stanford | So | LHP | 6.0 | 21 | 47.6% | 9.5% | 31.1% | 10.3% | 87 |
| Jordan Jones | Wash. | Fr | RHP | 6.2 | 25 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 29.7% | 9.0% | 87 |
| Noah Bremer | Wash. | Jr | RHP | 6.0 | 24 | 41.7% | 12.5% | 30.1% | 10.6% | 90 |
| Steve Romo | Arizona | Jr | RHP | 2.0 | 7 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 28.9% | 10.0% | 92 |
| Parker McFadden | Wash. St. | So | RHP | 2.1 | 7 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 28.9% | 10.0% | 92 |
| Griffin Canning | UCLA | Jr | RHP | 6.0 | 22 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 28.5% | 10.2% | 93 |
| Erik Martinez | California | Jr | RHP | 1.0 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 28.3% | 10.1% | 93 |
| Cameron Ming | Arizona | Jr | LHP | 1.1 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 28.3% | 10.1% | 93 |
| Zayne Patino | California | Jr | RHP | 1.2 | 5 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 28.3% | 10.1% | 93 |
Notes
Last year, USC’s Jeremy Martinez (selected by St. Louis in the fourth round of the 2016 draft) led the Pac-12 with 3.3 extra bases per strikeout*. Only about 20 players finished with a ratio of at least 1.0 extra bases per strikeout. The conference average was roughly 0.5. After the first weekend of the season, USC’s Frankie Rios has now recorded four extra bases (on two doubles and a triple) and zero strikeouts — this while playing the most demanding position (with the exception of catcher) on the field.
*Extra bases being total bases minus hits, or essentially isolated slugging.
Top Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Greg Deichmann, COF, LSU (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)
Top Pitcher
Dallas Woolfolk, RHP, Ole Miss (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Collin Snider, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)
Top Starter
Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida (So)
Leaderboards
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Gutierrez | Texas A&M | Fr | C/2B | 8 | 0.0% | 1.600 | .667 | 13.2% | .208 | .362 | 127 |
| Chandler Taylor | Alabama | So | COF | 14 | 35.7% | .917 | .250 | 18.9% | .202 | .359 | 116 |
| Greg Deichmann | LSU | Jr | COF | 11 | 9.1% | .778 | .333 | 14.0% | .182 | .360 | 115 |
| Adam Sasser | Georgia | So | 1B | 9 | 11.1% | .778 | .667 | 14.5% | .176 | .363 | 113 |
| Connor Brumfield | Missouri | So | OF | 19 | 0.0% | .308 | .429 | 11.4% | .161 | .361 | 112 |
| Julian Infante | Vanderbilt | So | 1B | 13 | 0.0% | .400 | .444 | 12.3% | .162 | .361 | 111 |
| Josh Smith | LSU | Fr | 3B | 10 | 0.0% | .429 | .286 | 12.8% | .160 | .360 | 109 |
| Grant Koch | Arkansas | So | C | 13 | 0.0% | .333 | .273 | 12.3% | .158 | .359 | 108 |
| Hunter Alexander | Alabama | Jr | 1B | 14 | 0.0% | .273 | .500 | 12.1% | .154 | .362 | 108 |
| Kramer Robertson | LSU | Sr | SS | 11 | 0.0% | .333 | .556 | 12.6% | .156 | .362 | 108 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Woolfolk | Ole Miss | So | RHP | 3.0 | 9 | 77.8% | 0.0% | 31.0% | 7.6% | 83 |
| Jackson Kowar | Florida | So | RHP | 5.2 | 22 | 45.5% | 4.5% | 29.9% | 7.6% | 86 |
| Riley Self | Miss. St. | Fr | RHP | 6.0 | 20 | 45.0% | 5.0% | 29.4% | 7.7% | 88 |
| Collin Snider | Vanderbilt | Jr | RHP | 4.0 | 15 | 46.7% | 0.0% | 28.8% | 7.4% | 88 |
| Konnor Pilkington | Miss. St. | So | LHP | 3.1 | 15 | 46.7% | 6.7% | 28.8% | 7.9% | 90 |
| Casey Mize | Auburn | So | RHP | 5.0 | 17 | 41.2% | 0.0% | 28.2% | 7.3% | 90 |
| TJ Sikkema | Missouri | Fr | LHP | 5.1 | 20 | 40.0% | 5.0% | 28.3% | 7.7% | 91 |
| Maddux Conger | Vanderbilt | So | RHP | 3.0 | 10 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 28.1% | 7.6% | 91 |
| Brigham Hill | Texas A&M | Jr | RHP | 6.0 | 27 | 37.0% | 7.4% | 28.4% | 8.0% | 91 |
| Cannon Chadwick | Arkansas | Sr | RHP | 2.0 | 7 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 27.9% | 7.7% | 92 |
Notes
Texas A&M’s Jorge Gutierrez is interesting. A native of Venezuela, where his father played professionally, he became a citizen of the United States in September. As a showcase prospect, he was designated as both a catcher and shortstop. Already this season, he’s played both catcher and second base for the Aggies. Just a freshman, his first weekend of college baseball was a great success: in eight plate appearances he homered twice and tripled — and also added a stolen base on one attempt.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Ah, so I see Heimlich has maneuvered himself to the top of the Pac-12 board. I guess the Beavers got a jolt out of that.