The Lockout Projected ZiPS Standings: American League Edition

As you might have noticed if you were surfing FanGraphs while relaxing over the weekend — or recovering from shoveling snow in the Northeast — the ZiPS projections have now been populated in the projections section of the site.

There will be multiple updates to those projections this spring because, well, a whole bunch of the offseason remains, far more than is typical when ZiPS makes its appearance in the database. While I’m more cautiously optimistic than most of my colleagues are about the future of the 2022 season, in the present, baseball’s landscape is less about fans huddled around an abstract hot stove and more about the heat death of the universe. With no MLBPA members being signed, traded, or even acknowledged on official MLB channels, baseball has nearly entered a state of thermodynamic equilibrium.

While this is bad for the game and anyone who likes it, it at least makes depth charts less volatile and provides a good opportunity to run some mid-lockout standings. These are quite obviously nowhere near the final preseason projections, but they’re a snapshot of where baseball stands right now. Which teams are in good shape, and which ones still have work to do? Let’s forget about the eternal void that beckons and get to some projections!

We covered the National League yesterday, but before we turn our attention to the Junior Circuit, a reminder on how these projections are calculated. The methodology I’m using here isn’t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS is the first through 99th percentile projections for each player it projects. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Since these are my curated projections, I then make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion. The computational algorithms, that is — no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond.

After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. ZiPS then automatically “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. For instance, here are two simulations concerning Texas Rangers shortstop results:

The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. This is actually much less complex than it sounds.

Now on to the projections. First up: the American League East.

Four teams in the division projecting as real contenders has a real effect on the projected win totals versus the overall quality of each team. This is perhaps most obvious in the projection for the Boston Red Sox. ZiPS doesn’t think they’re really just an 83-win team in 2022, but when the prospective schedule is actually simulated, they fall a bit short compared to the division’s top trio. The projection swings aren’t as wild as they were before the 2021 season, as the depth of the rotation has improved a bit: Boston is slated to start the season with Chris Sale, and both Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford come out with better forecasts than the last time around. That said, the Sox are still short at least one outfielder and their short-term situation at first base is one of the weakest in baseball.

The Yankees have more variance in their projection than last year. ZiPS still likes their front-end talent, but the wheels come off this cart in the simulations where injuries hit. Toronto’s projection is the opposite, with the tightest bands in the division. ZiPS continues to like the Rays more than our Depth Charts do, which I hypothesize comes down to a difference in methodology; ZiPS gives a lot of playing time to the Plan Bs, because the Plan Bs are quite important.

The Orioles exist. Their goal this year is to complete 162 games and win some of them.

The Central projects similarly to last year, with two clear tiers: the White Sox and everyone else. Right now, there’s no particular reason to expect Chicago to do anything but coast to the divisional title, with the usual caveats for injuries and the like.

If the White Sox falter for some reason, ZiPS sees the division becoming a much more interesting dogfight. The dead cat bounce isn’t enough to get ZiPS to project a return to form for the Twins thanks to some extremely unimpressive pitching projections, which can be described as middling across the board with an extremely low ceiling. ZiPS likes the Tigers in the long-term — and I’m taking the over on this projection right now — but there’s still some sorting out to do. Aggressively promoting Riley Greene would add a couple wins to the projections. So would finding an actual DH rather than pretending Miguel Cabrera is still a major league-quality hitter, but I don’t really expect Detroit to go that far.

ZiPS is bullish on Kansas City’s offensive future thanks to the quartet of Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino, but only Witt is likely to see a bunch of playing time in 2022. Still, the division is weak, and it would be dangerous to count the Royals out with such interesting offensive talent in the high minors.

Even with the departure of Carlos Correa, the Astros project at the top the division. That’s not because ZiPS doesn’t see Correa leaving as a major loss — it quite obviously is — but the computer is far more confident about the fate of the rotation than it was last year at this time. Adding Verlander, even with the time he’s missed and at his age, provides another boost. Houston’s done a better job than I expected in mitigating the loss of some of the core players of the 2010s teams.

Mediocre pitching projections hold both the Mariners and the Athletics back. I expect both of those teams to close some ground with the Astros by the time we get to the projections nearer to Opening Day; the Mariners apparently still intend to spend and Oakland didn’t have their usual burst of bargain shopping before the lockout froze the offseason. The Angels never really get a lousy projection — Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are too good for that to happen — but they remain a team with serious holes.

I kind of expected the Rangers to come out in the 76-78 win range, but as it happened, any time the team lost two or three starting pitchers for an extended stretch, the staff projections became a nearly-unmitigated disaster in the simulations. This rebuild may still go better than the last one, but there’s a lot of work still to do. The team’s lack of talent at the major league level can’t be rapidly papered over by a few very fun free agent signings.