The Los Angeles Dodgers Have Landed Roki Sasaki
Major League Baseball had its “Kevin Durant is a Warrior” moment on Friday, when 23-year-old Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki agreed to sign with the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers for $6.5 million. Sasaki himself announced his decision via his Instagram, while his bonus was reported on X by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and Alden González of ESPN.
If he can stay healthy, Sasaki is a likely front-of-the-rotation arm who has the talent to win Cy Young Awards. When he’s been fully operational, his fastball has averaged nearly 99 mph, he has an elite splitter, and his slider became a useable weapon in 2022. He joins a loaded Dodgers roster that has five or six other players who either have won a Cy Young or MVP (Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Blake Snell), or could conceivably do so in their best season (Tyler Glasnow and maybe Yoshinobu Yamamoto). One and a half of those players weren’t even on last year’s Dodgers title team. As I’m writing this, the Dodgers have not yet announced the signing. Though Sasaki’s contract is technically a minor league deal, and he isn’t yet on the 40-man roster, he is overwhelmingly likely to break camp with the Dodgers’ big league club and be part of their squad that opens the season against the Cubs in Japan on March 18-19.
Sasaki did not have his peak stuff in 2024 (more on that below), but in his four NPB seasons – 414 2/3 IP, 275 H, 0.883 WHIP (lol), 524 K, 91 BB, 2.02 ERA – he has at least met, and arguably exceeded, the all-world expectations foisted upon him since he was in high school. He has been a viewed as a generational talent, the LeBron James of Japanese baseball if you will, since his junior year. His exploits in Japan have been Herculean. Sasaki’s fastball was touching 101 in high school; he once threw nearly 500 pitches in an eight-day span, including a 12-inning, 194-pitch complete game during which he also hit the game-winning two-run homer.
He was the first pick in the 2019 NPB Draft by the Chiba Lotte Marines, had a sub-2.00 ERA in his 2021 rookie season, and then transcended the sport in 2022 when he threw 17 consecutive perfect innings that April. The 6-foot-2 righty retired 52 consecutive batters during that stretch, more than the MLB record of 47. It was at this point that Sasaki became something approaching an international household name. His fastball averaged just shy of 99 mph and touched 103 mph in 2022, making him the hardest-throwing pitcher in the history of NPB. He was having an even better 2023 – 85 IP, 39% K%, 5% BB%, 62% GB%, 1.88 ERA, 0.92 FIP — before he was shut down with an oblique tear that July. It cost him to most of the rest of that season.
Then in 2024, Sasaki missed time with shoulder soreness, and his stuff was down when he pitched. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was roughly halved compared to 2023. Here are some splits illustrating the dip:
| Pitch Type | Usage% | Avg Velocity | Miss% | Chase% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 50% | 98.8 | 24% | 29% |
| Splitter | 35% | 89.6 | 53% | 48% |
| Slider | 14% | 87.6 | 45% | 33% |
| Pitch Type | Usage% | Avg Velocity | Miss% | Chase% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 48% | 96.7 | 12%(!) | 25% |
| Splitter | 29% | 88.6 | 51% | 35% |
| Slider | 22% | 84.2 | 37% | 23% |
His bouts with injury combined with this dip in performance create some risk that we’ve already seen Sasaki’s peak. He’s a spindly guy with a very violent delivery, and injuries could conceivably be something he deals with frequently. This, plus the Dodgers’ unbelievable depth of starting pitchers, means Sasaki can be handled with extreme caution in his first year if the Dodgers so choose. He’ll likely provide premium rate performance and less in terms of innings volume, at least initially. If Sasaki’s fastball returns to its prior level of performance and his body keeps getting stronger into his mid- and late-20s, then we’re talking about a frequent Cy Young candidate in the mold of Kevin Gausman or Nathan Eovaldi, except Sasaki signed for just $6.5 million and is subject to the same six-year window of team control as any other rookie.
The Dodgers began the 2025 International Signing Period with a $5,146,200 bonus pool, tied for the second lowest in baseball. Sasaki’s deal is reportedly for $6.5 million. MLB rules dictate that teams can trade for up to 60% of their original pool space, which puts Los Angeles’ maximum potential pool at just over $8.2 million. The Dodgers made two trades for bonus space on Friday, one with the Phillies (for prospect Dylan Campbell) and one with the Reds (for prospect Arnaldo Lantigua) for a combined total somewhere in the range of $2.25—$2.5 million in additional space. (The specifics of the Phillies deal are unknown but have a $250,000 range.) In the days leading up to the start of the 2025 international signing period on January 15, three prospects who had verbal agreements with the Dodgers changed teams: Darell Morel (Pirates), Oscar Patiño (White Sox), Teilon Serrano (Twins). All three seem to have done so of their own volition — though likely in response to the risk that Sasaki would be a Dodger — and got more money from their new teams than they were slated to receive from Los Angeles. Cuban journalist Francys Romero reported that the Dodgers intend to honor their other agreements, which they’ll have to get done with, at most, roughly $1.7 million (their $8.2 max pool minus Sasaki’s bonus). The ripple effects of Sasaki’s signing — which so far are those prospects’ changing organizations for more money and a couple of bonus space trades that included marginal prospects — have been relatively benign.
Where should Sasaki fall on Ben Clemens’ annual midseason Trade Value rankings? If he’s healthy and productive on a rookie deal, with six years of team control, one could argue he belongs in Paul Skenes and Elly De La Cruz territory, in the middle of the top 10. The surplus value of Sasaki’s deal for the Dodgers is almost incalculable. In addition to his signing bonus and league minimum rookie salary, the Dodgers will need to pay Sasaki’s NPB club, Chiba Lotte Marines, a 20% posting fee of $1.3 million. It makes their first-year outlay for Sasaki about $8.5 million when you include his league-minimum salary. That’s less than the first three picks in the 2024 draft received for their bonuses. Sasaki’s on-field performance is likely to outpace his salary several times over, plus he is also now an intercontinental celebrity in the second-largest media market in the U.S., on the team with the sport’s biggest global star, and generating interest and revenue on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. This is as quintessential an example of “the rich get richer” as you’ll find in sports, where amateur player acquisition is almost always tailored to funnel elite young talent to the bad teams.
Will the concentration of talent in Los Angeles cause meaningful disillusionment among baseball fans? As excited as everyone is to watch Sasaki pitch, our culture tends to tire and make villains of dynastic sports franchises. One of the many (seemingly spurious) things that Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, stated publicly during a poorly mic’d Winter Meetings press conference was that Sasaki did not have an enjoyable experience with the media in Japan, going so far as to say it might be beneficial for him to land in a small market in order to avoid more of it. Well, now Sasaki has chosen the antithesis of that. He is intentionally moving into the place where the spotlight is already shining brightest, and where most baseball fans look with ire at the reigning champs. Is $6.5 million enough to subject yourself to schadenfreude from swaths of three different countries in the event that the 2025 Dodgers are the 2012 Marlins or 2011 Eagles? Is “begrudging respect” Sasaki’s cultural ceiling? These are much more difficult questions that will take years to answer.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Yawn. I get that it is fun to have teams to root against, but when a team becomes an all-star team due to the financial disparities between franchises, it gets hard to be a fan of the sport. Freeman, Betts, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Snell, Glasnow, Ohtani, Teoscar. If anything, it completely devalues any titles the Dodgers win and is really only news if they don’t win it all…and as noted, it is just bad for the health of the sport.
Cry me a river. It’s not really financial disparities as much as willingness to spend to try to win and willingness to treat the team as a real, competitive sports franchise and not just an appreciating asset to be sold at such time is convenient to the failson Scion.
And in two years, you’re all gonna be laughing at the “albatross” contracts of mid 30s Freeman, Betts, Snell, Teoscar, etc
Yes other teams COULD spend like Dodgers, but they would lose tens of millions of dollars a year. The Dodgers could have signed Soto and they still would be profitable.
And the albatross contracts won’t keep the Dodgers from signing other huge contracts because even with albatross contracts they still will be profitable. Imagine what just one albatross contract like that would do to some teams.
You know all this because you have access to all the teams books? Y’all are getting Stockholm syndrome defending the billionaires you’re in an abusive relationship with
We have access to Atlanta’s, and from that data can reasonably estimate others. I don’t know what you’re even arguing, as it’s obvious that there are massive revenue disparities between markets.
Maybe you’re arguing that most owners can afford to cover those disparities, but the wealth of a team’s owner really doesn’t matter unless they’re willing to lose large amounts of money annually. Thus far, that has only applied to Steve Cohen, who happens to be more wealthy than the third and fourth wealthiest combined.
The reality is that Major League Baseball teams are constrained by their revenue streams, not their owners’ net worth, and that revenue divide is only continuing to grow. It’s something the sport needs to address and preferably sooner rather than later.
The issue here isn’t that the Dodgers can spend. Ohtani choose the Dodgers because he wanted a west coast team. That’s why he originally signed with the Angels, telling all the east coast teams not to bother. He then selected a better west coast team six years later. Being the biggest baseball star ever from Japan then helped recruit Yamamoto, and almost assuredly Sasaki. Other teams could have paid Ohtani underl his current contract terms, especially with so much deferred, but Ohtani wasn’t offering that deal to other teams. He went where he wanted to go. Every team could have signed Sasaki, but he went where he wanted to go. It’s not the money; it’s the location and the fact the Dodgers are currently a highly preferred destination. History says this will change, but for now, all roads from Japan lead through Chavez Ravine.
Sports benefits by one team playing the heel. Right now it’s the Dodgers. The beauty of baseball is teams can build playoff teams many different ways. That’s why MLB hasn’t had a repeat champion or a dynasty since the mid-90s to early aught Yankees.
Disagree completely that sports benefit by one team being the heel. Everything else you say is 100% accurate. You left out one point. Dodgers are a very well run organization, maybe the best run. Why wouldn’t a player want to play for them if the money is the same?
to people who believe this: if an owner is unwilling to run a competitive team because they prefer more money, then sell it to one of the MANY MANY MANY bidders who would give you billions of dollars. Who loses here?
Or would you rather keep defending the Reinsdorfs of the world?
Only one of the thirty owners has shown any inclination to spend far beyond the team’s revenue, that exception being Steve Cohen. If there were any other billionaires out there willing to do so, they presumably would have. Everyone else ties spending to revenue.
The White Sox spent $132,497,547 in 2024. Spending was not their issue.
Padres are another example. But to your point, I agree with the evidence, but reach a different conclusion. The conclusion I reach is that owners, because they control who can buy the franchise, only allow other greedy owners who care more about money than winning.
That’s why we see this clustering behavior. Not because it indicates anything about actual finances, just greedy billionaires.
If that were true then they never would have allowed Steve Cohen. The reality is that 99% of businesspeople act in a similar fashion. They don’t like to lose money, so their business spending ends up being constrained by business revenue. That’s not just in MLB, that’s in every industry. The only exceptions are the mega-billionaires like Cohen and Musk who have so much that they can casually throw away billions like Musk did on Twitter and Cohen did bailing out his hedge fund buddies.
The thing about the Dodgers right now is that most of their financial flexing (which has nothing to do with Sasaki, who could have got more money from everyone else, including Toronto) is based around something everyone could have done: Ohtani’s deferred deal is a *profitable contract* in and of itself, and generates more revenue directly than it costs (the most recent estimates I saw have Ohtani at 70-75m in direct revenue).
Every team could have done that contract; he appears to have discussed it with others. It is not Dodger-exclusive; anyone could have afforded it because it more than pays for itself.
And it, in particular, is why they’re doing what they’ve been doing recently – other players negotiate interest rates, usually around market. Ohtani gave the Dodgers a 0% interest rate. This is why the contract is so steeply devalued, but also why its so wildly profitable.
Gotta be honest – it seems like you’re describing how the Dodgers’ commitment to winning pays dividends on and off the field?
Any team in baseball could’ve signed Sasaki for exactly the same amount of money, so I’m not sure how “financial disparities” are relevant here.
The disparity is that the Dodgers ownership views player salaries as an investment rather than an expense.
This attracts FO talent, which leads to a strong team, which leads to them winning any “tiebreakers” when it comes to free agency.
At least the Mets are going to be Dodgers East soon enough?
By itself no financial concerns re Sasaki. Moreso Dodgers with 5 total MVP trophies, 5 cy young awards (assuming kershaw resigns) on their roster, plus over one billion in deferrals. Before people say other teams could spend the same, other teams don’t have the gate receipts or regional sports network stability the dodgers have. Plus Ohtani is basically printing money for them
Ohtani is printing money for them because they invested in him. He was acquired on the free market. Literally any team could have signed him if they wanted to take advantage
Literally false, because even if other teams offered the same thing the Dodgers have, and significantly more, he had decided he wanted to come to LA, so Bos, NYY, NYM, etc. were off the table from the get-go.
Sasaki signed with the Dodgers because they have a ton of the best players in the world (including all the best Japanese players), which is literal output of their financial advantage. That’s not a pejorative, it’s just true.
It’s pejorative for MLB as a league.
The devil’s advocate response from me. There wasn’t a direct financial benefit to Sasaki. But the Dodgers financial might created an environment that is highly beneficial to play in. It’s not irrelevant to his signing with Dodgers. Please note that I didn’t pronounce this good or bad. I just acknowledge its existence
Love your screen name!
Normally I would agree with you, but this case is different. This is a case where he just decided to sign with the best team, and maybe also because it’s a relatively friendly market for Japanese ball players.
But I do think this is another moment that will lead to my general resentment of the Dodgers. They had to work to get there, but now this team is building a team on easy mode.
FWIW I will add that the Mets spending right now has some of the hilarious WTF charm but I fully expect them to be in that state in five years or so too. I didn’t really dislike the Dodgers until the Scherzer / Turner trade, and in fact thought the whole thing was rather charming up until around that point. I am expecting a similar transition for me and the Mets and some point.
I think the Mets are already there in one sense, escalating MLB’s salaries and payroll to new levels, blowing past a $340MM total payroll and the “Cohen tax line”. Having MLB’s wealthiest hedge fund owner; paying a $43.5MM AAV to two aging pitchers, then discarding them when it was clear age had caught up; paying Soto what will end up being a $55MM AAV and in total $800MM plus, in the process dismantling Ohtani’s $700MM commitment, likely isn’t viewed as charming by most fans, or most of the other MLB owners. : -). The only reason they’re not in the Dodgers resentment camp at the same level is they’ve yet to win anything. Yet.
It will be interesting to see what MLB attempts to do in the next CBA regarding deferred pay, the influx of the best Japanese players to a single team, and the escalation in spending by the Mets. Maybe nothing, but I suspect there will be something. Isn’t there always?
It’s sort of interesting that we’re seeing a bit of a replay in the NL as to what happened in the AL. When the Yankees rose up to be a dynasty again, the Red Sox had to counter, which then reverberated across the AL, making other teams spend more, or get smarter, as was the case with the Rays and the A’s. The AL became the dominant league for a quarter century. Now it’ happening in the NL, as the Dodgers and Mets spend heavily, other teams have to be more aggressive and smarter, causing a drain of talent from the AL to the NL. Will than continue for a decade or two?
Not viewed as charming by the other owners, indeed. By the fans? Why are fans always presumptively on ownership’s side lol, I want my favorite players to get paid!
(Full disclosure: yep I’m a Mets fan, what of it)
Because the only people who burn money are mega-billionaires like Cohen and Elon Musk, who never had to work for any of their wealth and have absolutely no concept of a budget. Every other team in the league besides the Mets operates with spending tied to revenue. When revenue goes up, spending goes up. When revenue goes down, spending goes down. And unfortunately, teams in certain markets like the Dodgers and Yankees have absolutely massive revenue advantages over teams like San Diego and Baltimore.
Fans want to believe that their team has a chance next season. It’s hope that keeps us going, and an ever-increasing revenue divide is crushing that hope.
This discussion of spending/competitive balance always takes on a centrifugal quality, with fans required to defend either underspending, penny-pinching billionaire owners or a rampant free market. Can’t it be true that (a) lower- and middle-market teams like the Pirates and Guardians certainly CAN and should be spending more (in many cases a lot more), AND (b) large-market teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have built-in geographic and market advantages that make it hard for most teams to keep up with them? I don’t really see why standing by (a) or (b) necessarily negates the other.
Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and other small markets have dramatically less revenue than the Dodgers and Yankees. The only way it is possible to spend more than your revenue stream creates is if someone is financing that loss, either through loans or a wealthy owner who doesn’t care about draining that wealth. The latter almost never happens in the United States, although there are some examples in European sports.
If spending is constrained by revenue, which it almost always will be and arguably should be, then it’s impossible to rationally argue that Cleveland should be spending more. Fans want our teams to spend because it’s not our money, but realistically, the long-term fiscal outlook of the franchise requires not spending beyond your means.
I just completely disagree with your premise. There is almost no doubt that the Guardians can spend more – probably considerably more – without operating at a loss. When you add in what the ownership group paid for the franchise (Dolan as majority owner in ’99, Blitzer’s group as minority owners in ’22) vs. the value of the franchise now, there is no way they are involved in a losing endeavor, even if they increased payroll by quite a bit. I DO agree that the Guardians of the world have to be more prudent than the Dodgers/Yankees and can’t afford to take on as many risks, but that’s not to say the franchise can’t be doing more.
That isn’t true. We know team revenues and we can reasonably estimate team costs. You’re getting confused by team values, but those are independent of revenue.
Great comment, and great screen name!
Haha – thanks!
The Mets are not even going to exceed the top luxury tax threshold this year.
Uhhh, sorry but it’s quite likely they will, and by a fair shake. Still holes at 1B or 3B and likely to add a set up righty for the pen. They’re $6 mil under the top – those adds (especially if the Alonso stare down goes as expected) will easily put them over
The good news is it’s still really hard to win a title. So a lot can happen between now and October. Or November. That last part felt weird to type.
Nah, it doesn’t devalue anything.
I think it’s wonderful for the health of the sport that a team without the highest payroll can still attract the best players and win the most.
They didn’t sign the most expensive players, I.e. Soto, Fried, Burnes. Boston and Atlanta could have kept Betts and Freeman.
Several teams could have afforded Ohtani and Yamamoto and Snell.
They’re successful because Friedman is doing a great job, much better than Zaidi or Moreno.
Where would their payroll be without deferrals?
They’re successful because of their financial advantage. You only have to look at the difference between the Friedman era Rays and the Friedman era Dodgers to see that. And of course that financial advantage is what got them Friedman in the first place, too.
When Friedman started, they really didn’t have that much of a financial advantage over a “normal” big market team.
They must have a smart ownership group who understand, like Steinbrenner did, that winning pays off.
You’re right, they didn’t have that much advantage over the three or four other teams with the huge advantage.
Try 20
Toronto, Miami, Atlanta, LA, SF, Phoenix, Washington, Philly, NY, Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Seattle, Denver, Baltimore, San Diego, Minneapolis, and Tampa all have larger metro populations than St. Louis.
The Dodgers’ ownership just operates under a value creation model rather than a value extraction one.
I’m not sure why we’re talking about St. Louis.
Let’s try this: I’m Warren Buffet, and I’m on a MISSION FROM GOD to do whatever it takes to make the Kansas City Royals as valuable a franchise as the Yankees or Dodgers. To do that, I need to dominate MLB. I want to win 8 championships in 20 years, because that’s what it’s gonna take.
I’m going to go back in time and offer Ohtani 750m in net present value, distributed any way he likes. I’m going to pitch him on building a legendary legacy of Japanese baseball in Kansas City, give him a 5% stake in the franchise, and fly a jetload of his biggest fans in from Japan for every home game. I’ll give Yamamoto 450m. I’ll offer Soto a billion. Let’s say this makes me Sasaki’s choice – I’ll give him a lifetime contract offer right off the bat.
How long would I have to keep operating like this? If I run $300m operating deficits every year for 30 years, would that be enough to get me to self-sustaining?
I’m not sure why we’re talking about Kansas City, mate.
Did I mention them?
Or are you sweatily trying to fit your mouth around the leather boot of a billionaire who will never, ever take your virginity?
Incidentally! The Royals spend more on players than quite a few teams I listed….despite their smaller market.
But hey! If you keep sucking that boot, maybe an owner will eventually let you suck something else.
Just a heads up – there is no correlation between the persuasiveness of an argument and the explicitness of the insults.
I’m just not huge on billionaire gargling.
So you admit that your position is indefensible, that no amount of deficit spending could overcome the structural advantages enjoyed by LA/NY, and are down to crude name calling. Pathetic.
They had a financial advantage when McCourt owned them… he just pocketed and/or you know whatever it was he was doing with the money.
Exactly.
It’s a choice.
The Dodgers won three division titles in the 8 years McCourt owned them (+1 wild card berth). Those were pretty decent teams, despite his being a crook.
Of course they signed the most expensive players – no one else has 3 players making over 300 mil. Are you saying Ohtani and Yamamoto aren’t among the most expensive players in the sport?
The Mets have Soto and Lindor, mate…
Ok but what about the OTHER 28 teams that would like to have a fighting chance?
Uhhh, their payroll, even with the deferral depreciation, is currently projected to be at least $50 million more than any other team.
You may have been sardonic here but just checking in case
I mean that’s the hot take but this has always been seen as the Dodgers race to lose. They have the best fit. I would have loved to see him go somewhere else. Beyond the team I root for (Red Sox), I think there were other interesting fits that just were not in the running.
Personally it would have been really interesting if he joined a club like the Phillies. They have done a great job and there would have been less pressure on him with two workhorse aces in front of him. LAD rotation has aces but no workhorses.
Baltimore would have been awesome with all of the young players they have but heir pitching situation would have put way way too much on him from day 1.
I never understood Toronto as a landing location. Their window has already closed unless they were able to land some high impact players in FA.
Well, they got Santander. That’s a plus.
They got a closer. That’s good if he stays healthy. Pitchers, you know.
They got Gimenez which isn’t bad and has an upside if no certainty at the plate.
And they got Straw which is…?
Great comment. You’re stating the obvious. As today (1/20/25) proves, we live in a society chock full of dullards who are immune to reason and goodness.
Yes, of course the money and the people in charge of the sport are ruining the game. There could well be a work stoppage in a couple years over this BS.
there is going to be a work stoppage either way
That we’re even having a conversation about a work stoppage when there’s more money floating around the game than even IS PRECISELY THE POINT to many of us. Our experience as fans has greatly diminished. We’re paying more and more for less. Going to a game is like getting searched by the TSA.
And we’re looking at guys getting paid $400, $600, $700-800 million to play baseball and they’re arguing over a few millions dollars with these a-hole billionaire owners who just take and take more money while giving the fans nothing but the middle finger.
The fans should unionize and go on strike.
I think we’re at a point now where this is a problem, and it’s just not good for the sport for one team to have essentially the entire country of Japan as their own farm system where they get exclusive access to the best talent.
Any team could have signed Snell or Freeman, or traded for Betts, or drafted Will Smith, but it’s increasingly looking like only one team had access to Yamamoto or Sasaki, and it’s hard to see that changing for the next big talent from there
wtf are you talking about? Yamamoto signed the Gerritt Cole contract. They ponied up for him fair and square. And Japan is more than two or three dudes
It was less money than what the Mets offered.
And obviously Japan is more than 3 dudes, but the handful that are good enough to get noticed by MLB teams shouldn’t be disproportionally more likely to go to one team
It was the same deal with an opt out. Free agents are allowed to pick where they want to live and work just like the rest of us
Free agents get paid.
What stopped anyone else from being the preferred choice for Japanese players? At one point it was Seattle.
Probably the billion dollars in contracts the Dodgers handed out to Ohtani and Yamamoto last year? Maybe?
They’re not the only team that could have afforded those
Ohtani is really the answer to the question, by himself. The whole snowball effect we’re seeing where it suddenly seems “obvious” that every Japanese star will look to the Dodgers first is built on his massive celebrity more than anything else. I don’t think most American baseball fans still totally understand the kind of mega-superstar he is to Japanese fans and ballplayers.
small sample size: *exists*
fans: “is this phenomenon a law of the universe??”
Ohtani obviously chose the Angels over the Dodgers when coming to the US. #ShortMemory.
Because he wanted to hit. If NL had the DH at the time, it probably would have gone differently.
The Dodgers weren’t an option at the time, no NL team was.
Short memory, they didn’t have the DH
I remember when people talked liked this about Steinbrenner’s Yankees. Who then notoriously underperformed in the playoffs because so much can happen in a short series. The Dodgers are favorites in the near term, but I would still take the field over them every year for the World Series. The Dodgers also have an aging core and a lot of rotation risk, so it will become increasingly harder to dip into free agency and trades to stay on top. This seems overblown to me.
If I was rooting for “the field”, that’s one thing. But if I am rooting for ONE of those teams in “the field” where the Dodgers have, say a 40% chance of winning the WS (just picking a number less than 50% for sake of argument) and my portion of “the field” means my team has a <1% chance of winning a WS in a 30-team league, that changes the equation from the way you put it, doesn’t it?
I really don’t think they have anywhere near a 40% chance of winning it all any given year. They’ve had or been very close to having the best record in baseball since around 2017 and have 2 WS to show for it. I don’t think they’re that much better if at all to the 2022 club that won 111 games with a 116-win Pythag. I think at best they have 25% chance any given year. And the next best teams are probably 10% or so.
You did see where I said “ say a 40% chance of winning the WS (just picking a number less than 50% for sake of argument)” right?
Point being: they have MUCH better odds than the 2nd best team, and ridiculously much better odds than a mid-market wildcard team will have, not to mention a mid-to-low market fringe contender. The point is, they have a ridiculously major advantage over practically every other team, and that can’t be good for the game. We can’t expect teams to hemorrhage money even if their owner is pretty rich, to keep up with the Dodgers’ spending spree. It’s simply not good for the game, and as TV revenues create even more disparity (as we will start to see more down the road with the Bally’s local contracts drying up and MLB stepping in to help….for NOW), it’s only going to get worse.
Well, yeah. He’s a pitcher.
I think the Blue Jays are realizing they need to get the country’s tourism department to start running more “Visit Canada!” ads in Japan.
Play up the Yuzuru Hanyu connection.
They could start by being better run. The commitment to winning is how the Mets got Soto and the Dodgers became a preferred destination
The commitment of 400 million dollars a year to winning, specifically.
Yes.
Most of these billionaires could do the same for a few years and create their own perpetual motion machine.
But they don’t.
I think we both know that isn’t true. Half the league just got defaulted on their RSN contracts, and those contracts pay peanuts compared to the big market teams.
It’s a weird time to comment about this since this is the one case where money isn’t directly implicated in a big budget team getting the star. But you’re absolutely right and it is a serious problem for the league and fan interest over the long term. I don’t have any sense of what type of revenue sharing would be necessary or how it would even work but the current model is pretty bad for about 12-15 teams.
But I don’t have high hopes for it changing. The owners are fairly motivated to make this work by keeping player salaries down, not by growing the sport and increasing parity. The long term cost to the sport is just not relevant to them.
& that is 1 big reason why the NFL is king.
KC gets Patrick Mahomes- They can keep him for 15 years & surround him with talent.
Buffalo gets Josh Allen- same deal.
Green Bay can have good QB’s for 35 straight years & win in the smallest market in professional sports.
Baltimore (Lamar Jackson), Pittsburgh, etc. are hugely successful NFL franchises.
They have shared revenue (other than gate receipts..but, if you win, you’ll sell out easily) & a salary cap & every team feels they have a shot if they’re run well.
League needs a commissioner with the kind of vision Pete Rozelle had early in his tenure. The breakup of the RSN is a real chance for MLB to try and press reset on shared revenue before the house of cards collapses.
To add to st’s comment – their refusal to make the necessary capital investment to grow the value of their franchises is a choice.
The Castellinis *are* legitimately cash poor, in their defense.
The Mets have a commitment to winning?
The Mets got Soto because they offered the most money. They offered the most money because a mega rich guy owns the team now.
okbuddy
It’s not Juan Soto’s fault that you missed being a Yankees fan when their owner gave half of a flying fuck about winning.
I don’t see anyone blaming Soto. Of course he should take the best offer he’s given. But how all the other teams are affected by the lopsided market IS the issue. And, no, not any other team can afford the huge negative cash flow, especially with the current local TV market implosion.
Throw in a poutine signing bonus.
Few hundred miles west of Quebec, ahaha
Give or take. It does have to be frustrating for Jays fans though.
The sad thing about the Blue Jays is that not only did they lose Sasaki to the Dodgers, they took on Straw’s contract to get an extra $2M in pool money to match LA’s pool. Two days before Sasaki went to the Dodgers.
Did they actually think they had a chance?
Were they fed bad info by his agent? Or do they think Straw is fixable?
They *do* have cash to burn.
Sure, they can afford it.
But Straw?
What is he these days? A 6th OF?
His defense isn’t what it used to be and he couldn’t bat much even in the minors. Not sure what happened to him but he looks like a candidate for DFA during spring…
And to add insult to injury, LA didn’t even use their full allowance to Get Sasaki so they didn’t need the $2M if he was seriously considering them.
Gotta be some serious heartburn in Toronto.
Wait… is he going to be eligible for PPI?
I think so? Yamamoto (iirc) wasn’t bc he was a true FA.
“Sasaki’s fastball was touching 101 in high school; he once threw nearly 500 pitches in an eight-day span, including a 12-inning, 194-pitch complete game“
My stomach churns reading that. Poor kid was taken advantage of by adults with either a lack of knowledge or a lack of ethics. If a HS coach pulled that in the US he’d be publicly shamed and never be allowed near a young arm again
The coach was publicly shamed in Japan…for not pitching him on the tenth day, to preserve his arm!
The annual high school tournament has been notorious for decades for chewing up young pitchers. I remember articles about it back in the early 2000s, about how many promising prep guys there have been who threw a zillion pitches in their year and were never the same.
It’s slightly different culturally there in regards to pitch count. Not saying they are right, they likely aren’t, but I don’t think we have it down to a perfect science either.
Yeah, it’s not like the limiting pitch count model is preventing pitcher injuries here.
Agreed!
I think it’s pretty intuitive that a teenage arm throwing nearly a 1000 pitches in a week is probably not in the best interest of his UCL
Eh. I didn’t say it was. I said our pitching model also isn’t helping injuries. And when you compare Japan to here, pitchers here generally throw harder, which means more injuries. But to pretend like we have pitch count down to much more than a guessing game feels rich. Every single person is unique, and applying blanket statements doesn’t make sense.
They are already pro athletes, so just by default they are unique.
Does Roki speak English? I’m sure he could feign that he doesn’t and needs an interpreter so he can create a barrier with the media.
Generally I would say the media tends to be kinder to players that make an effort to communicate
Jorge Lopez might disagree.
I suspect that there are so many other targets for the media on the Dodgers and in LA in general that he might get less attention than if he went somewhere else.
Hopefully he does need an interpreter and they’ll keep him in a news bubble.
The problem I see is that if he underperforms, boos are internationally understood.
(Gulp)
Maybe they start him in the minors or pitch him every other week early on. They have the bodies for that.
Bad relation with the media in Japan, is not exactly the best way to describe the situation in Japan. It echoed the fan sentiment about the negative perception against him. So it was actually bad relation with the fans and media.
Japanese fans and media would know what happens regardless of where he is in America. American fans and media would have an entirely new look at him, he could start from scratch, wherever in America. It is not that he does not like the media in general, or he is bad with it. Wolfe misunderstands the situation badly, and is misleading.
So what does Toronto do with all the extra IAFA money they traded for now? Do they try to poach some other team’s verbal commit that has yet to sign with more money?
Sign the Dodgers’ remaining commits, haha
Sounds good
Yeah, this isn’t good for baseball and it’s disappointing. Sasaki would have been franchise altering for most teams in baseball and went to the one place where he’s the fifth starter. Yes, teams refusing to spend money is a bigger deal but the fact that there are only 5-10 teams players want to go to is bad for baseball. For Asian players, it seems like they mostly want to go to 2-3 teams. I don’t blame them, they can choose to go where they want, but it is really unfair.
And I wish people would stop pretending the reason players want to go to the Dodgers is because they are some elite organization. They haven’t developed talent particularly well (I think Will Smith only starter they have developed in organization) and they haven’t been able to keep pitchers healthy at all. They are a good organization but so is Cleveland and nobody wants to go there.
Well, talent development is only one aspect of it. The guardians don’t supplement that with free agents or contract extensions except J-Ram. And also…Cleveland…LA
Sure, I’d rather live in Cleveland than LA.
Now, if we were talking San Diego…
I think that’s the issue. Cleveland could do everything LA did and it still wouldn’t matter because rich baseball players want to live in Malibu or Orange County not in suburban Cleveland. I would too so I don’t blame the players but it is a massive advantage. I know, for example, Toronto had to offer Springer an extra year to get him. That’s going to be a bad year and people will blame Toronto management for it but teams that aren’t in the elite destinations (LA, Atlanta, Texas etc…) have no choice. It’s either bad contract or no contract. LA doesn’t have to go extra years, or offer more money. It’s much easier to be a top organization when talent wants to go to your city (another reason why it’s infuriating that Miami won’t spend. Would be easily a top destination for players if they would even be a mid-market team.)
As fun as Malibu is you’d think the 13% state income tax would dissuade some people. I’m pretty sure a 20 something can even find ways to have fun in Cleveland with a couple million.
I had a lot of fun in Cleveland when I was living there completely broke 20 years ago!
The geographical advantage is a *very* good point.
However, the Angels & Padres have that advantage too. Why has Anaheim been so bad with free agents lately? It might point to a very real difference in front offices and organizational culture.
The Dodgers *do* have to offer more money than non-California teams in order to overcome the income taxes the player will pay. When Seager signed with the Rangers, there was an article showing what the Dodgers would’ve had to offer him to match what he’ll make with the Rangers and it was astounding.
Are Atlanta and Texas considered elite destinations? I can understand tax situation in Texas, but Atlanta?
Maybe for players who *really* like strip clubs?
For Southern boys, yes! The Braves have done a great job making themselves into the home team for a huge chunk of the South, and that’s also maybe the region that most, or at least the plurality, of US-born ballplayers come from.
TBS, baby!
But also, an OTP stadium would be a hard ick if I were a single athlete in my 20s.
If Cleveland offers more money than other teams, they would be loaded. So it is not only about Malibu. Many players go to other cities too.
But Sasaki`s case is different. For him it was absolutely not about the money. It might have been more about geographic proximity, which is different from Latin or American players. It is a specific consideration for the Asian player and their families.
So you cant argue Malibu is the most problem, because that is probably only one of possible reasons in general.
I mean…Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, and Justin Turner would all say that the Dodgers developed them exceptionally well, “in organization.”
Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger aren’t particularly put off, either.
Bellinger is most recent of those players and was a rookie 8 years ago so don’t think it’s particularly relavent with how current organization is doing. Not saying they are bad or anything but they aren’t particularly great at developing players and they’ve been horrible at keeping pitchers healthy.
Muncy came over in 2018.
Add Oneil Cruz, Connor Wong, & Ryan Pepiot to the list.
So you want to count both Justin Turner who wasn’t drafted by Dodgers and didn’t come up with them and O’Neill Cruz who didn’t play for Dodgers above A ball as developed by Dodgers?
And Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, countless relief pitchers…
Gavin Lux?
The Dodgers did a great job identifying guys who were swing change candidates, who then immediately did great. They don’t seem great in recent years with bringing along prospects and living with their growing pains in the majors. Which is understandable when you’re contending, but is hard from a player development angle when the jump from the minors to the majors seems so steep.
I fully expected this but it is disappointing, nonetheless. Here you have a free agent whose pay is restricted so finally offering an open invitation to cities, franchises, league-wide to make a pitch. They could have been on about how they could help market him, make him a centerpiece, build his brand. Yet we never heard from anyone other than the usual suspects. Nobody actually connected to the team seems to have entertained the thought of selling him alongside baseball’s ‘instagram couple’ in Pittsburgh? Why not? It seems 2/3 of the league is mailing it in every year.
As fans – why should we care if the franchises we support seem disinterested?
Largely agreed, although I gotta disagree with the idea that you seem to be implying that teams refusing to spend money is BAD. While I do not particularly like billionaires, there is this belief among some fans that they are morally obliged to spend as much of their money as they can in an effort to obtain talent for their teams, regardless of whether it will make them money or not. In short, there are a lot of people who are very generous with other peoples’ money.
Don’t own a baseball team if you just want to hoard money. You have $4 billion dollars, you don’t need more money or to own a baseball team. Mark Cuban recently said that Nutting would never sell the Pirates because they make so much money off if it every year. IMO, if you buy a team you have a responsibility to that city to try to win. You don’t have to lose money, but you need to try to win. It’s a problem with the MLB model where they are too generous sharing revenue with teams who don’t even try. Otherwise, get into a different business. There is such an obvious issue when some of these older owners who loved baseball died and left their teams to their family who don’t care. Happening in San Diego right now but happened in Detroit, Baltimore, Minnesota, and I’m sure more.
The Yankees were openly trying to get under the Cohen line (which has zero competitive implications) WHILE trying to sign Soto.
Mystery wrapped in an enigma why he chose Cohen and Stearns!
People trash Steve Cohen (for all kinds of justified reasons) but he talks about this all the time. Civic responsibility. Of course, it’s a funny kind of civic responsibility where, at the same time you shoulder it, you get to both make a killing and also be the little boy who bought himself the best toys in the whole world.
Steve Cohen’s spending has absolutely nothing to do with civic responsibility, just like Elon Musk buying Twitter had nothing to do with protecting free speech. Both of them give excuses to cover for their real agenda: distracting from their crimes and developing legions of mindless supporters.
Unfortunately that’s not reality. Only people who are super rich can afford baseball teams. And people who are super rich tend to have gotten super rich by hoarding money.
Billionaires have to be forced to do the right thing. They will not otherwise. If you want them to spend money, you have to make them spend money.
The original sin is that the Yankees (or Dodgers) can spend $250m a year on players and still make a ton of money. Whereas if the Brewers or the A’s spent $250m a year they would lose $100m, at least. Billionaires are awful for the world, but it’s hard to blame the ones who own the Brewers or the A’s for not signing up to lose tons of money while their peers are getting rich simply by virtue of being lucky to own a team in a different geographic region.
What we need, if we actually want to solve this problem (and I suspect most people, including most people on this board, don’t) is much stronger revenue sharing with a salary floor. That’s the model that has worked in the NFL and the NBA to great success.
Yes, it’s morally bad for billionaires to keep their money for themselves. This has been my TED talk
Most franchises made their money someplace else. The baseball business is just a side-hustle. Its a Ferrari – no, not everyone can afford one but those that can, do you expect your Ferrari to have much of an ROI? I suppose there are some collectors can can keep them pristine in a garage and see long term gain but most people that buy them want to drive them. If you’re buying an MLB franchise to put it on blocks its just bad for the league.
They haven’t developed talent?
Guys on the MLB rosters of TB, PIT, BOS, CHW, NYY, TEX, CIN, & WSN who came up through their system prove otherwise. There was a recent Baseball America article showing the team who had drafted the greatest number of big leaguers on 2024 opening day rosters was the Dodgers.
Plus, they’ve got 8 more MLB-ready starting pitchers on the IL or their AAA roster who they either drafted or developed after acquiring via trade. Two of them, May and Gonsolin, were guys they drafted who helped them win their previous WS. Did you forget who threw the final pitch in the ’24 WS? Right, a draftee. The organization has been pretty great at drafting and developing pitchers and catchers in the last decade. They happened to trade a couple of them to acquire parts of their current roster (Betts, Glasnow).
There are definitely some in built advantages for some teams. A lot of players are from Georgia or live in Arizona in the offseason, and Los Angeles and New York have certain draws. If a player lives in Florida or Arizona they may strongly prefer spring training in those locations.
But I do suspect that organizations that have a reputation for mismanagement or penny pinching are going to have a hard time landing players anyway. I don’t think anyone can look at the Blue Jays or Angels or Giants and come to the conclusion that the front office knows what they are doing. Or that the Mariners are going to give out a big extension and still spend enough to win.
Ohtani turned down Jays after three straight playoff appearances in the AL East. If Ohtani goes there instead of LA, things look very different in 2024 as well. SF is similar. They try to sign free agents but gthe big guys just don’t go there. They aren’t bad organizations like the Angels.
I mean from 2020-2023, Jays and Giants had the 6th and 8th best records in baseball. Best record isn’t only thing but these are not poorly run organizations.
Not like the Angels, no. I would say that there is definitely a difference in the perception of the Giants now than it was three years ago, and between the Blue Jays now and where they were 1-2 years ago.
I should add, I think Vlad Jr and Bichette’s contract status has as much to do with that as losing last year. Before you could see a window of 2-3 years even if they left, now they’re in a no-quick-fixes situation and their guys are one year away from free agency.
Over in NYC the fans are already dreaming of trading for Vladito.
I fully expect that some combination of the Mets and Dodgers will be in on every 26 or 27 year old free agent with six years of service time forever.
The Dodgers probably won’t be in on Vlad Jr because their 1B and DH spots are totally filled up, but given their total disregard for defensive positions I can’t rule out the possibility they will sign Vlad Jr with the plan of playing him at third base. I imagine they will probably go hard after Murakami instead, and probably get him.
Freeman has faked it at 3B for a while during his Atlanta days. A whole 16 games! 😇
2021 is doing a lot of heavy lifting for your cherry picked stat. They’ve been a wholly mediocre team since.
When you say no one wants to go to Cleveland, have they actually made any serious offers to top tier free agents? They do seem to do quite well at convincing guys to extend woth them (though do then tend to trade them to the Blue Jays to save money).
In the last decade, the Dodgers have drafted towards the end of the first round – if they have a 1st round draft pick at all. They got a 4 fWAR season out of their 7th round 2018 draftee (as BABIP driven as it was) in 2023.
The athletic ran a poll players to ask what city they’d most like to play in. Atlanta was first at over 12%. Cleveland weren’t in the top-17 so were below 2%. Miami and Angels were higher despite being horrible organizations. I don’t blame players but this is the reality.
I am absolutely not disagreeing with you that the average major leaguer would prefer to live in LA than Cleveland. And the Dodgers do have geographic (and financial) advantages – but I think they seem quite focused on maximising their advantages to win more baseball games.
But if I were Sasaki, seeing the Guardians trade away Andres Giminez because, although he is a productive major league player, he was too expensive, that wouldn’t make me inclined to sign with them (Their pitching dev being great would be a big tick for them though).
I do have to say, as a Brit, I do find it bizarre that Toronto really struggle to attract free agents. I mean, I do get it, but also I really don’t. I’ve not been to the US, but I went to Ontario as a child, and it was great, and I have very fond memories of Toronto.
It is odd as a Canadian but many Americans are very provincial in their own way. The Raptors had a super hard time for a long time. When people come here, they end up mostly loving it but Toronto is extremely liberal by American standards and maybe the more conservative players don’t like it as much and Jays tend not to chase those guys.
It’s not as though ball players dislike Toronto once they are there, but it’s going to lose tiebreakers because it’s culturally different. I remember going to England as a kid and teenager and loving it too but it’s just a lot mental load to figure out why all these little things are different.
We’re talking mostly about cases where the money is similar enough where the tiebreakers really do matter.
Is Toronto really “culturally different,” haha?
It ain’t Montreal – it’s just Chicago East.
It does feel a lot like Chicago and it is a lot less foreign than Montreal. But they spell things wrong, the political system is incomprehensible to Americans, the African-American and Latin American culture of the US is not there, and neither is the white southern culture that an lot of these guys grew up with, etc. These are feelings that are hard to pin down and articulate, so they don’t get talked about. I don’t think it matters that much in the big picture but it’s not just in sports where Toronto loses top end talent to the US.
Ironically Japan is one of the few places where Toronto can compete meaningfully with US cities in terms of culture and that has baseball as a big sport. Which is another reason why it is weird to talk about this on this article specifically.
I did spend most of my 20s in Dublin on the basis that it’s a baby Boston with easy access to the continent…so I’m probably a bit empathy deficient on that front 😅.
I’d just say “Chicago with no guns and great public transit? Dope!”
The Latin American culture absolutely is in Toronto, as it has a strong Carribbean community. I think it has more Caribbean residents than any other MLB market besides New York and Miami. For players, the biggest downsides of living in Toronto would be dealing with customs every time they want to travel to the U.S., along with different money and all the little inconveniences that come with living in another country.
Los Angeles is culturally different from Chattanooga too. That doesn’t stop Chattanooga kids from signing with the Dodgers.
Yeah but you can find Chattanooga culture in Los Angeles easier than in Toronto. I do think people underestimate the degree to which Canada is a different country, even as Toronto and Southern Ontario is more like the US than most of the rest of Canada.
Jays players have an economic complication with CAD and Canadian taxes, too, no? Or is that no longer an issue? I’m vague on the details.
What’s the difference between Miami and Cleveland?
They’re exactly the same.
Neither the cities nor the organizations and anywhere close to being the same
You sound just like Aaron.
LeBron disagrees.
But those are hypothetical preferences. If Cleveland offered more money to a player than LA, those preferences would change mighty quickly.
This situation with the Blue Jays trading for the international pool money only to lose the target later that day is maybe the most humiliating way to come in second place. Someone needs to put that front office out of its misery.
Impossible to be a Jays’ fan right now and not feel used. Ohtani wanted to be on West Coast and Sasaki wanted to be with Dodgers but Jays got strung along. The whole way Sasaki did it by eliminating teams was just weird to begin with. Just announce where you’re going. The fact that he did it Toronto one year after Ohtani did it (and all the nonsense about wanting to be his own person, forge his own path, etc…) means that I have a new least favourite player in baseball.
IDK Sasaki is fine. He very well have gone into it with an open mind. I was more surprised that the Blue Jays were one of the remaining teams. This is a front office that is one more losing season away from getting fired. It’s not usually a great selling point that the team is picked to finish last in the division.
There’s a real sense of desperation around the Blue Jays right now. Their only play has been to spend money, and they’re going to have to again, but with the current state of the team it has to be for a player where they can meaningfully outbid the competition and these high-profile cases have not been it.
I mean maybe Sasaki went in with an open mind but he was linked to Dodgers years ago so it’s equally possible it was all a show. Either way, the drawing it out , eliminating teams was a disaster for Jays and Sasaki should not have done it like that.
Atkins should have been replaced two years ago. I think they’ve done an decent job except in pitching development (awful) and have been a very unlucky front office (tons of young talent who all got worse every year. How can you plan for that?) but it’s time for a change. Like managers, I don’t think GMs really are very different from one another unless they are awful but sometimes it’s just time to move on
.
You know
It is possible that he
1) seriously considered Toronto
and
2) signed with LA
and
3) didn’t string anyone along
Yes but it’s also possible that:
1) he knew he was going to LA all along or
2) he didn’t know but the process was still bad.
Even if these things are true I don’t think it’s “humiliating” to TOR, and I don’t think they should be put out of their misery. OP overreacting.
When people say this signing (amongst others these last 2 years) with the dodgers is good for baseball, just think how much interest the Miami Heat generated with LeBron, Dwade and Bosh. Yeah Dodger fans are allowed to be happy, but they can’t be surprised when the other 29 teams’ fans hate their ass
But they can feel superior for something they had nothing to do with, and that’s always good
I’m surprised that they are people who would hate someone because of the baseball team that they like.
Hate them as a fan, not as a person. I would give a coworker sh*t for being a Dodger fan but still have a beer with them
As God intended – Lucky’s mom supports the Blues instead of Queensland, but somehow things work out!
So you wouldn’t hate them,
Reminds me of Joe posnanski’s term, Clemenate. Back in the day (pre steroids accusations and other issues), people just hated Roger Clemens. Just in a sports way and nothing especially personal. Just… Clemenating. Not hating him like he’s Pol Pot or something.
I am assuming that Sasaki picked his final three destinations based on endorsement opportunities (although I imagine that playing for a team that had some success also played into it). But if you told me that a younger 20-something pitcher who throws 100 mph and has been thrown a lot already was going to a team where all of their young promising pitchers have blown out their arms…I think we know where this is going. I think I would have prioritized going somewhere that had a better track record with arm health, which is almost every other team.
In any case congrats to Dodgers fans, who will get to see Sasaki wow us for a little bit before he blows out, and let us hope that Sasaki’s TJ recovery is smooth and he comes back much the same pitcher as before.
I wonder if the Mariners were willing to actually spend money if they would attract a lot of Asian league players. They have the closest flights, the city is interesting, and they have a big international population.
It is kind of a shame they aren’t getting the international players. The same could also be said of San Francisco.
I think the Mariners are a well run team and they could put a very convincing argument to Sasaki that they are the best team for his arm health and strong ties to Japanese baseball (and proximity to Japan, Japanese-American population, etc). And they are a good team! But the team is so fixated on not spending money right now that his agent probably looked at them and correctly surmised the chances of them signing him to a big extension was low.
Also maybe they didn’t want to lose their signing class, I saw them tied to a lot of big bonuses on the Board.
Not just the extension.
There’s the matter of the supporting cast.
Too many of their holes are being “fixed” by retreads and dumpster dives.
My guess is that Sasaki picked three finalists because he felt like there should be finalists. But he was always going to sign with the Dodgers.
At least you admit that it’s a guess
You nailed it, I’m not Sasaki.
But, neither are you. So you’re merely guessing that he wasn’t always going to go to the Dodgers, and just went through all this for show.
Well, you do need some competition to drive up the price.
I don’t mean that in a snarky way, but, it’s just basic negotiation tactics.
Ohtani’s two-way designation affords the Dodgers the unique opportunity to run a 6-man rotation without reducing the size of their pen. I suspect the guarantee of a 6-man rotation was attractive to Sasaki (and Yamamoto before him).
For all that is made about their pitchers getting injured, the Dodgers have also had good success with pitchers *returning from* injury/surgery (Ryu, Urias, White, Stripling, Buehler, Treinen), something I suspect had a part to play in convincing Glasnow to agree to the extension.
“a team where all of their young promising pitchers have blown out their arms”
Is there any actual evidence that Dodger pitchers need TJ surgery at a statistically significant higher rate than other teams?
We’re dealing with pretty small numbers so if it is statistically significant it would be pretty awful. But it does seem suspicious that River Ryan, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Nick Frasso, Walker Buehler, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan, and Bobby Miller have all torn their UCL or suffered a significant shoulder injury that has kept them out for a very long time on their watch. I think that is almost the entire Top 100 and Top-100-adjacent set of starting prospects the Dodgers have had? The only ones who don’t fit that are Pepiot and Josiah Gray and they aren’t with the Dodgers anymore.
My hypothesis is that there is something that the Rays and Dodgers are teaching that is making the pitchers stuff much more nasty but also leading to increased serious arm and shoulder injury. I base this on the fact that virtually every Ray and Dodger young starting pitcher has blown out their arms because of the similar organizational DNA.
I wonder how much of those injuries for Rays and Dodgers has to do with something that is going on during player development and how much is simply due to those teams selecting players who have a greater than average injury risk (due to their pre-acquisition mechanics and velo, pitch mix, injury history, etc.).
I noticed that between ’14 and ’20 or so the Dodgers seemed pretty quick to acquire pitchers who had significant injury risk/histories. (See Buehler, White, Stripling, Maeda). My suspicion is that Friedman’s philosophy is that the upside outweighs the risk and/or that even those whom the market sees as less of an injury risk are, in fact, truly a risk (all pitchers break) so that these types are undervalued by the market. If I’m right, he likely taught that to others at TB.
I was hoping my Buccos would swoop in. Bibs Nutting couldn’t get the piggy bank open though. Roki and Paul to end it all…
Im pretty sure Sasaki did NOT consider endorsement opportunities so much, If money was so important to him, he would have waited 2 more years until 25 like all the other JP players not named Shohei and cashed in big time regardless of the destination.
What an asshole. He could have just said he was going there from jump but he fucked up a lot of Dominican kids’ lives instead. I won’t root against the Dodgers, but I will root against him.
There’s some truth here. He was always going to sign with the Dodgers. We knew it, baseball media knew it, the teams knew it, etc. He was never going to go with the Padres or the Blue Jays and we all know that.
I imagine we would all agree that there wasn’t any malicious intent in dragging the inevitable out, but there were other players caught up in the backwash. Hopefully they all landed on their feet.
How did he drag out the inevitable? He signed literally two days after the first possible date.
The Sasaki contract process has been going on for months now. Every other international free agent has been linked to a team for months. Fangraphs has a whole spreadsheet on it. That’s why the various finalists had to put on hold and/or back out of agreements they had with other prospects. Because their deals were done.
The signing date is just the day you can make it official. But all the international deals, except his, were done a long time ago.
Again, I don’t think there was any malicious behavior. And even if there was, it’s his prerogative to decide when and where he wants to go somewhere. He has to do what’s right for him. But there was collateral damage.
And it’s the collateral damage I’m talking about. Now that there’s news that MLB conducted an investigation over all this, it smells even worse.
As I said, the victims are a bunch of Dominican and Venezuelan teenagers you might never hear of, but they are victims nonetheless.
How are they victims? They knew this ahead of time and, as I said, the only effect was that they signed with their second choice teams for more money.
God what a pair of humps you two are. The issue is with the system, not Roki.
Not for me it’s not. There are many ways to navigate the system. Hump yourself.
Name calling is against the TOS here. Argue the argument, not the person.
That’s the rest of my comment (the problem is the system, not Roki). I’m surprised you knew that about the terms, since springing for a membership was a bridge too far.
I’ve been a visitor to Fangraphs since it first launched, probably a decade before 99% of the people in this conversation had even heard of it. People like me helped this site get off the ground.
And I’ll repeat, name calling is against the TOS.
If he said that he was going to LA from the jump the league probably would’ve vetoed the contract and say there must have been a handshake deal. That’s why he did this whole charade when he was likely never considering another team.
You mean the ones who got more money to sign with their second choice teams? I’ve seen a lot of incredibly stupid and over reactionary takes about this signing, but this is the only one that personally attacks Sasaki’s morality, which is the most ridiculous conclusion you could possibly come to.
The three. So far, three. Your failure to understand the point makes you the stupid one.
It was reported that the Dodgers are signing all of the rest of their IFA class besides the three who already signed with other teams, so it is just three, not three so far. I understand your point and am refuting it with facts, and everyone agrees with me except you.
You do know Sasaki didn’t make the posting rules, or the international signing rules?
Did teams other than the Dodgers lose commits? I only recall seeing kids with the Dodgers sign elsewhere. I think most were pretty aware where Sasaki would sign. And for the ones who were with the Dodgers they appear to have gotten more money to go elsewhere.
To me the biggest fuck up for the Dominican kids is having them in verbal commitments since they are 12. It makes me wonder if they would actually be better off actually having a draft for the kids.
Commits? Hard to tell since they’re not supposed to have any. (yeah, right.)
But the Pads and Jays are at risk if the *didn’t* do handshake deals for this year and now need to rush out and pick whatever if left after the top guys sign with teams that didn’t think they had a chance.
Why does everyone always act like a draft is the only way to solve the international player issue? Maybe one day an American sport will figure out how to bring in amateur players in a way that doesn’t exploit the ever loving crap out of them, but I don’t see it happening anytime soon with this type of thinking so endemic.
Mlb had an open international FA system but big budget teams were spending more on some teenagers than on veteran FAs. Small budget teams and the union worked out the cap and pool.
Which is the other part of the problem: for some reason amateur player selection HAS to be either via a draft or an open market (with dumb and counterproductive restrictions). How are those the only two options? It isn’t a lack of imagination, I’m sure.
Not lack of imagination.
Just vested interests.
There’s at least three camps in these catfights: big budget teams, small budget teams, and the union. To get any kind of system in place, all three have to sign off on it. And get something from it.
Just look how long it to to get minor League pay up to merely bad.
I really think you’re understating the level of class collaboration that goes on between the “big budget” and “small budget” owners. If the difference were that stark, there would be 3 sides to the table at CBA negotiations, and we all know where the “small budget” owners will land when the rubber meets the road. But for some reason we have to pretend there’s some ideological split going on between Bob Nutting and Steve Cohen. It’s ludicrous.
The Cohen rule suggests there is a real split.
I agree, the system stinks. But this guy still screwed up a lot of other people’s futures.
Three people, and how? You have yet to say how. How does signing with another team for more money screw up those three players’ futures? How?
I think one outcome for this is going to be much more support for international draft. Owners already want it but I’d think plenty of players wouldnt be so set against it anymore and I’m sure fan support would be through the roof.
The main problem is that the owners don’t want to give anything up for it except the QO.
If the owners were willing to move arbitration to a year earlier in the service clock I think this would have been done. But why would they do that? They already have the money capped. They don’t want to give away money.
I don’t get why players are against it
It’s because they’re free agents now.
Although, now that there’s a hard cap in place, ownership could probably make a financial argument for an international draft
Same reason the union signed off on the current system: money that goes to international free agents isn’t going to (older) union members.
Young International FAs aren’t union and many never will be. So they’re a drain on money that could go to the “middle class”.
Top FAs will always get paid but even since the cap went in a lot of players are seen as fungible. That is why Charlie Finley, The A’s owner way back in the 70’s, said that if they were to have Free Agency it should be everybody on one year deals. He wanted to flood the market with Free Agents and every year would be a salary drive. And yes, he was a skinflint of the first order.
Latin American players protested last time it was brought up.
Owners want it because it restricts player salaries.
I don’t think it would lower salaries much. Teams are spending around $6M on international players and you can make it the same amount for draft. I think issue is current system of Latin American trainers would be broken up completely. Those guys make a lot of money now and would make zero on draft.
I’m all for an international draft but I thought I remember seeing reports that there was a lot of pushback from the Trainers of the players from the Central American countries. Perhaps an international draft would cut them out or limit their earnings.
If you’re looking for someone to blame for all this, blame Arte Moreno
I blame the owners, collectively, and MLB as a league for their compete disinterest in creating an even roughly level playing field. And also the players, as a whole. Basically MLB sucks, and it’s really hard to stay a fan on days like this. The product is getting worse every year. Fuck them all.
You sound like a White Sox fan
Wait the Sox were not expecting Roki and are not affected by this NL West signing!
No but they are an example of a team eliminated before opening day and Sox fans are very much impacted by an uninteresting league as they (we) are going to be watching everyone else this year and just rooting for a fun season
Is Sasaki really a Dodgers/large resources issue? Or was this the entire ownership group of MLB trying to restrict one source of player costs and backfiring spectacularly?
Both.
Who says this is even an issue? Signing Sasaki improves the Dodgers’ World Series odds by like 2 percentage points at most, say 20% to 22%.
The issue is that 25 teams have less than 2% odds to begin with.
I think that’s somewhat exaggerated, but generally agree that the real issue people have with this signing is that it perpetuates this phenomenon. But the same thing is true for the NFL and fan interest and league revenue continues climbing at a very healthy rate. Also, you only have to go back one year (one year!!) to see a strong counterpoint to this – in 2023, the Dodgers (6th highest payroll) lost in the first round of the playoffs, neither the Mets (1st in payroll) nor Yankees (2nd) even made the playoffs, half of the 12 playoff teams were in the bottom half of the league in payroll, including the #27 team (Rays) and #29 team (Orioles), and the the #20 team (Diamondbacks) made it all the way to the World Series.
At most, this “issue” has existed for all of one season.
No, that isn’t true. The same five or so teams have permanent structural advantage, and that’s reflected in their championship odds every year. One of those teams getting eliminated via baseball randomness doesn’t change the fact that they have the best chance, every year. A have-not team getting lucky in the playoffs every few years isn’t parity.
Ok but that’s an argument to share media revenues equally, It has nothing to do with Sasaki signing where he wants to.
I suppose it could also be an argument for eliminating territorial rights and/or antitrust exemption.
This is almost certainly the root of the problem, which is that the New York and Los Angeles market deserve more competition.
I think there’s an argument for putting a team in New Jersey or Westchester County, a team in Pasadena or Long Beach, etc.
And that the A’s should have been allowed to move to San Jose, and whatever new team eventually winds up in the Bay Area should be allowed to go there too.
But MLB owners are fundamentally rent-seekers whose entire worldview is based on sitting back and collecting TV money passively, so they don’t want that.
Paradoxically NFL terms are more valuable than MLB teams, while sharing media revenue equally.
Ditto NBA teams.
Salary caps have a lot to do with that.
Sounds like 2023 was the exception to this.
Having a feel good story like the 2008 Rays, 14/15 Royals and the 2023 D-Backs once a decade isn’t exactly a glowing endorsement of the current system.
What’s most disappointing about this to me is that both Yamomoto and Sasaki are perfectly happy to just live in the shadow of Ohtani. They’re of course free to do what they want, but it says a lot about them that they chose that path when there were plenty of other options. And it’s just kind of sad.
I guess but it is also nice to have someone who shares your culture and language. That’s probably more important from a day to day quality of life perspective.
Yeah the cultural aspect I can understand. American and Japanese cultures value very different things. Japanese culture puts a lot more emphasis on the group’s success rather than the individual’s success.
I think you’ve gone too far into a macro-level generalizations here.
Think more immediate: it’s nice to be able to have conversations in your native language, about things you both know about (TV as a kid, what town you’re from, where you vacation when you’re home), it’s nice when your buddy has snacks you like that no one else on the team knows about.
Are we sure the pirates, marlins or rays could have built a team and spent just like the dodgers?
Marlins could have. Miami is a rich city. Rays are a really good team, and organization and could have easily afforded Sasaki. I don’t know what to say about the Pirates.
I agree all 30 teams could have signed Sasaki. Could all 30 teams have 3 contracts > 300 million on the roster at once, plus Blake snell, freeman, Glasgow, etc
Supporting cast matters.
Picking Cleveland would’ve been getting Ramirez, Kwan, a deep bullpen and a lot of maybes.
Going to LA only support worry is 3B. Maybe.
Miami is a very small city, and most definitely not rich. There are pockets of insanely wealthy people for sure, but once you get out of the coastal areas it turns into a small, kinda crappy city very quickly.
Every team could have afforded $6m for Sasaki. Only a small handful could afford the other ~$1.5b in contracts it took to get Sasaki to accept their $6m.
So is Kershaw the 6th starter? That Makes Gonsolin and May middle relief?
Six man rotation is probably the way to go. If you do that you need multi-inning relievers like Gonsolin, Miller and May. MIRP could probably rack up a bunch of wins with 5 inning starters.
A six man rotation with 3 man MIRP rotation, 1 long reliever like Knack, and 4 short relievers would probably work fine. Ohtani doesn’t count towards the 13 pitcher limit.
I think the fact that the Dodgers were obviously set up for a 6 man rotation with Ohtani may have been a factor in Sasaki signing.
I think the Dodgers are also off on the first 6 Thursdays, or something like that, of the season, so I assume they will go for a five man rotation until then, as Ohtani will need to build up, and then a 6 man rotation when Ohtani is ready to pitch.
That crew needs it. They might not even have six healthy pitchers by may.
If the past is any guide the Dodgers will not have to worry about having too many starters.
Interesting over/under: will this rotation plan survive to the ides of March?
Last I heard Ohtani will not be ready to pitch for opening day. They only do a a six man rotation with Ohtani, right?
I guess I would bet they strive for 6 man rotation whenever they have Ohtani pitching. So they move one of Goselin, May, Miller to the starting rotation if another starter goes down.
Unless I don’t understand your comment. Then my bad.
I was mostly just saying that I assumed someone would get hurt by the middle of spring training, but I had forgotten Ohtani won’t be ready until mid May.
Oh right. Got you.
Sazaki saying that city did not matter was total BS. He chased potential money in the end. I wonder if any small market team has any chance going forward. I doubt it!
Hard to tell but team salary isn’t the only revenue name players get.
There is the possibility that we see a lot of International promotional money flowing to the THREE ACES of LA.
He needs to perform and stay healthy, of course. But that applies everywhere, big promo money doesn’t.
I guess all that B.S. about not liking large markets was in fact B.S.
& just announced that they got Tanner Scott too!
My Lord.
I know that elite relievers get paid well. But man. $72 mil for 4 years seems like a lot.
I have a hard time believing that Tanner Scott is an elite reliever…
Me too. He’s good. But would like to see the write up on this contract.
this is the same thing the yankees used to do outspend other teams but they also sent a couple guys from ml to the show thats what the dodgers also do every yr couple of guys to the pros. Im a dodger fan ive always believe there should be a cap. But that will never happen do you get dodgers yanks mets spending 300-400 million/yr while tb spends 70