The Marlins Have (Almost) Never Been Able to Frame

Over the course of their admittedly limited franchise history, the Marlins have had a catcher win a Gold Glove Award three times. The first winner was Charles Johnson in 1995, a season in which, according to Baseball Prospectus, he was one of the less-valuable defensive catchers in the game. Johnson then won again in 1996, and BP ranks his defensive value 96th out of 100 that year. And then Johnson won again in 1997, with BP ranking his defensive value 95th out of 96. That would be worst, were it not for the flabbergastingly-bad Kirt Manwaring.

This isn’t to say anything about the voters themselves. This was back when the Gold Gloves were among the least scientific awards in existence, and Johnson, to his credit, was pretty damn good at blocking and throwing. Those are a catcher’s most conspicuous skills, and Johnson was fantastic at preventing those extra bases. His statistical downfall is that he rates as having been a lousy receiver. If it’s any comfort to him, that’s kind of been an organizational problem.

There’s no reason to expect teams to have known how to measure pitch-framing in the 90s. And of course, even we can’t directly measure pitch-framing from before the PITCHf/x era. But pitch-by-pitch data does exist going back to 1988, allowing researchers to play around with all the results, and some time ago Baseball Prospectus used that data to calculate pitch-framing estimates that correlate well with more recent, verifiable data. As such, here is a plot for you. Here’s the team-by-team pitch-framing leaderboard, combining all years available.

No team has gotten more value out of its receivers than the Braves. For them, this is over a 29-year span. Meanwhile, at the other end, we find the Rockies, and then the Marlins. For both teams, this is over a 24-year span. And for both teams, framing has long been a problem, whether it’s been understood as such or not.

Now, for the season ahead, the Rockies could have some relief in the form of Tony Wolters. Wolters is a converted shortstop who’s rated as a wonderful receiver, so that ought to help the team’s performance. Through to this point, the Rockies have had just two above-average framing seasons in their history. That’s better than the Marlins, who’ve had one. One season, out of 24 opportunities.

This plot shows the Marlins, year-to-year. There’s raw framing runs vs. average, and there’s also a line showing z-scores instead, to try to put everything on the same scale. The historical ranges look different when you compare the PITCHf/x era to the years that came before. Okay, that isn’t important. You immediately see what’s important.

There’s the one positive year, in 2003, when the Marlins finished 4.3 runs — or 0.4 standard deviations — better than average. That was the year the Marlins enjoyed having Ivan Rodriguez. Then Rodriguez went away, and the Marlins are sitting on 13 consecutive below-average seasons. Their second-best season, by this measure, was their first one, when they started Benito Santiago. Those catchers still weren’t quite up to par.

Pulling again from Baseball Prospectus, I see 43 different catchers who’ve suited up in a Marlins uniform. Seven of those catchers have managed framing marks better than 0.0, and only Rodriguez and Jeff Mathis have been at least five runs better than average. Yet, 16 different catchers have been at least five runs worse than average, and Johnson looms at a miserable -85.4. Again, not necessarily Johnson or the Marlins’ fault. I’m not sure teams knew how to instruct young catchers properly. It only looks bad now, and the Marlins’ whole history here is ugly.

The Rockies’ pitch-receiving present is in the hands of converted shortstop Tony Wolters. The Marlins’ pitch-receiving present is in the hands of converted shortstop J.T. Realmuto. The Marlins are big fans of Realmuto, and his 107 wRC+ from last season. Tons of people within the organization see Realmuto as one of the true franchise building blocks, and the prevailing belief is that, in his prime, he shouldn’t have any weaknesses. They’ve even worked to address the pitch-framing. Here’s an article from last February 21. Here’s an article from last February 24. Here’s an article from last March 18. This was a spring-training talking point: Realmuto was working hard to patch up one of his shortcomings.

Baseball Prospectus, in 2015, ranked Realmuto as baseball’s third-worst receiver, by total value. In 2016, he ranked fourth-worst. Shifting over to the more basic numbers from StatCorner, Realmuto ranked fourth-worst in each of the years. This was a problem he and the team tried to address, but at least by the numbers, just about zero progress was actually made.

It gets weirder still. BP also estimates performance in the high minors, and in Double-A in 2013, Realmuto ranked as the third-best receiver, above names like Caleb Joseph and Christian Vazquez. The next year, in Double-A, Realmuto again ranked well behind the plate. He went from looking like one of the more promising pitch-receiving prospects to one of the worst pitch-receiving big-leaguers, and I’m not sure how to explain that. He moved quickly, for sure, and there’s no certainty that these measurements are that accurate, but it’s entirely possible Realmuto developed some bad habits.

We can watch him catch a random two pitches, because, why not?

 

First one’s a ball, second one’s a strike. The first pitch wasn’t that far from the initial target, but Realmuto made it look like it was, by having to reach so far over. The second pitch also missed, this time up, but Realmuto got the call. What I think is evident is Realmuto’s strength — his actual act of catching is clean. It puts a burden on the forearm, but Realmuto sticks those pitches. What might be working against him is his pre-pitch glove drift. That feels like something that could be cleaned up, but I’m not an expert here. It’s up to the Marlins to analyze.

Realmuto has performed like a good receiver before. If he could bring that into the majors, he could conceivably turn himself into a legitimate All-Star. The rest of his skills appear sufficiently advanced. And additionally, if he could bring that into the majors, it would provide the Marlins franchise some relief from what’s been a long-standing weakness. For as long as we have the data, no team has been as bad at pitch-framing as the Marlins have. The one season they were better than average, by some coincidence, they ended up winning the World Series.