The Modern Rule 5 Draftee: A Composite Sketch

The Rule 5 draft began today (Thursday) at Noon ET, signifying the end of this year’s Winter Meetings in San Diego. Designed to facilitate opportunities for talented minor leaguers otherwise blocked within their own organization’s depth chart, the draft has created opportunities for (among others) Jose Bautista, George Bell, Roberto Clemente, Shane Victorino, and Johan Santana.

The complexion of the draft has changed since 2006, when an extra year of protection was added under the new CBA. That said, both an MVP (Josh Hamilton) and Cy Young (R.A. Dickey) winner have been selected in the meantime.

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft if they’ve been excluded from their respectively club’s 40-man roster and were:

• Signed at age 19 or older and have played in professional baseball for four years; or
• Signed at age 18 and young and have played for five years.

A club, once selecting a player by means of the draft, must retain that player on its active roster for the duration of the following season, with exceptions for injury that are too tedious to reprint here. If such stipulations aren’t met, the player in question must be returned to his original club. Sometimes the original club declines to accept the player. Sometimes a small trade is worked out. There are other realistic scenarios, as well. As many as one can imagine.

There are surely other details I’m omitting. My concern here, however, isn’t to provide a flawless recapitulation of the current CBA’s Rule 5, but rather to examine facts about the players whom the rule has affected.

The first thing one finds about such players is this: since the rule change in 2006, 130 players have been selected by means of the Rule 5 draft. (The major-league portion, that is. That’s the concern here.) Of that sample of 130, 59 (or roughly 45%) have been returned to the original team within the next year (and usually before the end of April, it seems).

Of the 71 Rule 5 draftees who weren’t returned to their original teams, 54 of them — which is to say, about 42% of all players selected in the Rule 5 draft since 2006 — have made a major-league appearance at some point in the interim.

Of that smaller 54-player group, 27 (or 21% of the original 130-player sample) have recorded a WAR above zero.

Below are all the Rule 5 hitters to have produced a positive WAR figure since 2006. Note that aWAR denotes average seasonal WAR — so prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 415 PA for catchers):

#	Name	Year	By	From	PA	WAR	aWAR
1	Josh Hamilton	2006	Cubs	Rays	4168	27.3	3.6
2	Brian Barton	2007	Cardinals	Indians	179	1.0	3.1
3	Josh Phelps	2006	Yankees	Orioles	219	1.0	2.5
4	Everth Cabrera	2008	Padres	Rockies	1963	4.8	1.3
5	Ryan Flaherty	2011	Orioles	Cubs	750	1.5	1.1
6	Nate Freiman	2011	Astros	Padres	301	0.3	0.5
7	Jesus Flores	2006	Nationals	Mets	1014	1.0	0.4
8	Marwin Gonzalez	2011	Red Sox	Cubs	751	0.2	0.1

Below are all the Rule 5 pitchers to have produced a positive WAR figure since 2006. Note that aWAR denotes average seasonal WAR — so prorated to 150 innings for those pitchers who’ve worked predominantly as starters and 50 innings for relievers:

#	Name	Year	By	From	IP	WAR	aWAR
1	Kyle Lobstein	2012	Mets	Rays	39.1	0.5	1.9
2	R.A. Dickey	2007	Mariners	Twins	1233.2	12.9	1.6
3	Joakim Soria	2006	Royals	Padres	383.1	10.3	1.3
4	Scott Diamond	2007	Twins	Braves	343.0	2.7	1.2
5	Miguel Gonzalez	2008	Red Sox	Angels	435.2	3.3	1.1
6	Darren O’Day	2008	Mets	Angels	378.1	5.5	0.7
7	Josh Fields	2012	Astros	Red Sox	92.2	1.2	0.7
8	Hector Rondon	2012	Cubs	Indians	118.0	1.3	0.6
9	Jared Burton	2006	Reds	Athletics	361.0	2.8	0.4
10	T.J. McFarland	2012	Orioles	Indians	133.1	1.0	0.4
11	Kevin Cameron	2006	Padres	Twins	86.1	0.6	0.3
12	Donnie Veal	2008	Pirates	Cubs	64.2	0.3	0.2
13	Tommy Kahnle	2013	Rockies	Yankees	68.2	0.3	0.2
14	Randor Bierd	2007	Orioles	Tigers	36.2	0.1	0.1
15	Ryan Pressly	2012	Twins	Red Sox	105.0	0.2	0.1
16	Kanekoa Texeira	2009	Mariners	Yankees	67.2	0.1	0.1
17	Sean White	2006	Pirates	Braves	134.0	0.1	0.0
18	Travis Blackley	2007	Phillies	Giants	166.2	0.1	0.0
19	Evan Meek	2007	Pirates	Rays	196.0	0.1	0.0

Some notes and observations:

• To reiterate: of the 130 players to have been selected in the Rule 5 draft since 2006, about 42% of them — or, an average of about eight from each draft — have played at the major-league level at some point in the future with another team.

• Of that same sample of 130 draftees, 21% — or, an average of about three players from each draft — have produced a positive WAR at some point in the future (again, with a different team or teams).

• Ten Rule 5 selections since 2006 — so either 8% or just slightly more than one per draft — have averaged 1.0 WAR or better per season following the relevant draft. Note, however, that group includes Brian Barton, Josh Phelps, and Kyle Lobstein — none of whom played anything like a full season following the draft. Accordingly, it might be more accurate to say that seven players — or, slightly fewer than one per draft — have averaged 1.0 WAR or better following the relevant Rule 5 draft.

• As one notes, many of the productive players from the Rule 5 draft actually record their useful seasons with clubs other than the ones who originally selected them. Josh Hamilton, for example, was traded by the Cubs to the Reds — with which team he had his renaissance — for cash considerations following the Rule 5 draft. R.A. Dickey, meanwhile, was at his best only after signing with the Mets as a free agent before the 2010 season.

• Complete major-league stats for Rule 5 draftees since 2006 are available here: hitters / pitchers.