What Do The Marlins See in Dee Gordon?
Unpopular opinion time: the Miami Marlins are the not a band of penniless rubes ready for the exploitin’ by the Dodgers slick-talkin’ front office army. The Marlins are a lot of things, but clueless is not one of them. They don’t have much in the way on field success — minus a couple of championships — but the Marlins could very well have the best player development record in baseball. The Marlins never-ending prospect churn seems to have produced more than its share of talent, and that’s probably not an accident.
At some point, even the thrifty Marlins decided to roll up their stake and make a move. The moves are still Marlins-sized, but this isn’t your typical Marlins deal. This time, the Marlins are trading pre-arb players OUT and bring established players IN, so this is not the run-off-the-mill Marlins sell-off. Something is afoot. Something is amiss. Could they be making their team…better?
Some might argue that giving up Andrew Heaney, Enrique Hernandez and others for the Dee Gordon makes the Marlins worse, not better. But Miami is in the surprising position where filling roster holes trumps the marginal surplus value of bulk player control years.
But this trade, as Sullivan laid out, doesn’t look good on its face. There is a not-insignificant pile of evidence that the Marlins gave up a lot to get not a lot. But as mentioned above, the Marlins are no fools. Cheap and avaricious and unpopular – yes! But not fools. So what, possibly, could they see in this trade that lets it make some sense?
They like the way Gordon fits in their lineup
Yes, Gordon’s numbers, particularly in the second half, aren’t great. It remains highly unlikely that the Marlins don’t already know this. I bet they can find the ‘SPLITS’ tab on his profile page. They surely have a healthy, realistic view of his production floor and ceiling. Perhaps, instead, they like what he can do for their lineup, how his particular skills and abilities might help synthesize some extra runs.
In 2014, the Marlins were a middling team on the bases. Not great at stealing bags, average at taking the extra base etc. This is an area of Gordon’s expertise. This is a dimension they lacked and one they think will help them score more runs.
Gordon doesn’t need to be their leadoff hitter. He could well be an ideal 8th place hitter, grabbing a few free base on balls in front of the pitcher and wreaking havoc on the bases while Jose Fernandez goes yard. Or they could stick him at the top of their lineup and hope he can, in fact, steal first.
More than just steals and general base path mayhem, the Marlins can look at his success bunting the ball as a legitimate, repeatable offensive skill. His 20 bunts hits are one of the highest totals are on record, and other players with high bunt totals maintained high in-play averages while using the bunt as a weapon. Juan Pierre averaged 24 bunt hits a year during his first three seasons in Miami, posting very much above average BABIPs during that time. During his heyday, Willy Taveras snared nearly 30 bunts and a .346 BABIP. Brett Butler posted high BABIP, high bunt seasons into his 30s (though he was a better hitter.)
The point being, there might be a method to this madness. There might be reason to believe he can continue producing in a BABIP-driven way if his skills and approach support it, and the team lets him loose to bunt with reckless abandon.
They like his defense and think it can improve
The Marlins front office is on the record with their profound love of Adeiny Hechavarria. They love his defense even if our advanced measures do not. As Sullivan (again) points out, Hechavarria is prone to the odd brain lapse but remains capable of fantastic and difficult work with the glove.
Among second baseman, here is his Inside Edge rank on made play percentage by bucket: Remote (0-10%) 4th, Unlikely (10%-40%) t-3rd, Even (40%-60%) 2nd, Likely (60-90%) 8th, Routine (90-100%) 20th. There are 20 second baseman on this list.
It is a very similar profile to Hechavarria. Nearly identical, really. The Marlins either believe they can cure these two young players of their lapses in concentration or they simply don’t care. They value the extra outs created out of thin air more than the free outs handed to the opposition. Putting two of these players together in a double play tandem gives Miami a very rangey duo up the middle.
They like the total package more than their existing options
By Steamer, Dee Gordon projects to produce about a single win of value. That’s not much, and doesn’t help roughly .500 team make the playoffs. Using that very same projection system, already on the roster Marlins like Derek Dietrich or Hernandez appear capable of one, lonely Win Above Replacement and more on a 600 PA basis. Evidently, the Marlins are not enamored with the idea of playing Dietrich every day. So they acquired an upgrade.
But with better defense, and a less-aggressively regressed BABIP providing more opportunities to showcase the undisputed skill in his tool kit – his base running. Projected to be less than half of last year’s total, the track records of high run-value runners like Ian Kinsler, the aforementioned Pierre, Elvis Andrus and even Mike Trout suggest he can carry this over year-to-year.
There are good reasons to believe 2014 isn’t a fluke and Gordon is closer to league average or better, with four years of control remaining. A league average player is a huge win for the Marlins, who sit poised to make gains in the weakened N.L. East. The price they paid? That’s another debate for another day.
The Dan Haren situation remains unresolved. If healthy and willing, he gives the Marlins an established innings eater and stabilizing presence at the back of their rotation. If he decides the lure of Southern California retirement is strong enough, the Marlins are no worse off, other than making this apparent overpay a gross overpay.
Getting nickels on the dollar for your player assets is no way to live, especially when operating on a shoestring like Miami does. But there is something to be said for identifying a weakness in your team and then addressing it. You must give to get, and these four young players are the prize Miami appears comfortable paying.
The Marlins aren’t crazy. Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi do not have the rest of baseball under a spell. We can only assume the Marlins went into this trade, taking on salary and hoping to get better right now, with their eyes wide open. No need to squint, Dee Gordon absolutely makes them better in 2015. (Edit: they are taking on no salary. None. Zero extra dollars. They’re different but they’re still the Marlins.)
Drew used to write about baseball and other things at theScore but now he writes here. Follow him on twitter @DrewGROF
Whats not to like about the rich man’s Billy Hamilton that plays MIF?
My simple reasoning: moderate skill upgrade at 2B. If Gordon sticks as a leadoff, you have elite speed ahead of elite power. Could be fun to watch.
Or SS for that matter.
Isn’t elite speed less useful ahead of elite power? You don’t need speed to score from first on a Stanton HR. You do need it to score from first on a ground ball down the line or a shot to the gap.
Only in the narrative realm. It’s actually quite useful to be able to score from second on a single or go first-to-third.
Ask the Tigers what it’s like going one base at a time.
Sure it is, but my point is that someone like Stanton is capable of hitting it to (or over) the fence, which would score anybody from second. Some without power is more likely to hit a single, or a blooper down the line. Speed comes in handy there. It’s not as necessary when you have a big power hitter.
I’d take a fast guy over a slow guy regardless of the hitter, but I would think some of Gordon’s speed would be wasted ahead of a big power guy.
For every home run Stanton hits, he hits 4 non-home runs. The ability to score from 1st on a double or go from 1st to third is important.
For every home run that anyone else hits, they hit, what, 8-10 non-home runs? The ability to score from 1st on a double or go from 1st to third is just as valuable for those hitters, and they can use the value twice as often!
Mr Yelich would like a word.
Look at it this way: Stanton hit 31 doubles and a triple last year. 32 non-HR XBHs and 37 HRs. Gordon won’t be on base for each of the 25-40 doubles Stanton will likely hit next year, but when he is, he’ll have a good chance to eke out some extra runs and/or bases.
But would he eke out even more extra runs if he was batting in front of a singles hitter? Gordon had over 60 stolen bases last year – there are relatively few times that he’s on first base when someone hits the ball. He’s either in the dugout, or at least to second base. If Stanton hits a double in those situations, his speed is wasted. An average runner will score most of the time.
If he hits a single and steals second, his speed is most valuable on a ground ball up the middle, a bloop hit to the OF, etc. Those are plays where an average runner might get thrown out at home, or might stop at third. Compared to the average hitter, someone like Stanton doesn’t get those types of hits as often.
And to be clear, when I said “Isn’t elite speed less useful ahead of elite power?” I wasn’t saying elite speed is less useful than average speed. That would be bonkers.
I’m just saying that elite speed is less useful ahead of elite power than it is ahead of a singles hitter.
Depends on where they hit in the batting order. If Gordon hits first and Stanton hits cleanup, there are going to be few opportunities where Gordon’s speed is going to make a difference on a Stanton hit. If they bat closer together in the lineup, those chances will increase. But VivalaJeter is right, great speed is more impactful when it’s in front of a player that puts the ball in play a lot but doesn’t necessarily hit a lot of homers.
You are 100% correct! You leverage speed with low power and low walk hitters behind the speed.
i.e. the Placido Polanco protoype #2 hitter, from the school of situational hitting
He also would be scoring in front of Yelich, a high average/contact guy, before Stanton hits. This to me sounds very valuable.
Speed is more valuable in front of singles hitters where stealing second followed by a single, or scoring from 1st on something in the gap where the throw is cut off to keep the trailing runner from advancing, etc.
In theory a speedy runner could lead to more fastballs to the batter when the runner is on base, however I don’t know if the data supports that assumption.
He also has to get on base at a better rate for that to matter. Career .314 OBP probably shouldn’t be batting leadoff.
Drew, thank you for the column. I note that you write:
We can only assume the Marlins went into this trade, taking on salary and hoping to get better right now, with their eyes wide open.
But I read that the Dodgers will pay BOTH Gordon’s salary in 2014 and pay the Marlins $10 million that will be used to pay Haren’s salary if he plays or will enable the Marlins to utilize that money to sign / trade for a similar pitcher.
If my comments above are true, the Marlins are certainly not taking on any extra salary in this deal (at least not in 2015 anyway).
I was about to say the same thing. They probably save a million bucks, because they pay $0 instead of the league minimum for both roster spots.
Yes, it’s actually a very Marlins-style trade: they will pay two players on their 2015 roster – Dee Gordon and either Haren or Haren’s replacement at $10 million – a grand total of…zero dollars.
And further if Haren doesn’t play for them what will the Marlins likely do? Probably pay Haren’s replacement the league minimum and Loria pockets that Haren money – $10 million minus the league minimum for the replacement.
The more things change….
Right now the Marlins are praying to the god of capitalism that Haren decides not to pitch for them.
Gordon’s salary is already covered as mentioned above, and then if Haren doesn’t pitch they have an extra $10 million. They pay Haren’s replacement the league minimum of $500k or so, and then put the other $9.5 million towards payroll.
Given that the Marlins total payroll will probably only be around $60 million anyway, that means they covered approximately 1/6 of payroll with this single transaction.
I could be wrong, but I believe that the Marlins only get the $10M if Dan Haren decides to play.
Here’s another question on the value in this trade: Would the Marlins rather have Dan Haren on their roster with the Dodgers paying his full salary, or simply have the extra $10M without the salary obligation?
They’d probably prefer option B. Or option C, which is to trade Haren to the Angels for a low level prospect, with the Angels paying Haren’s salary.
Marlins should trade Haren to the Angels for Andrew Heaney.
my head just exploded
Drew for a source on that comment above, look at Clark Spencer’s twitter post on this page:
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2014-12-10/mlb-trade-rumors-dee-gordon-traded-dodgers-marlins-andrew-heaney
Spencer is a beat reporter for the Miami Herald.
Alright, well I withdraw my comment above then.
“He could well be an ideal 8th place hitter, grabbing a few free base on balls in front of the pitcher…”
I’m curious if there’s reason to believe this will happen. We all know Dee Gordon doesn’t really walk, but it also looks like that has more to do with pitchers throwing him lots of strikes than with bad plate discipline on Dee’s part — his O-Swing% and O-Contact% are perfectly okay. So if opponents do pitch around him a little more, he could very well bring that walk rate up a point or two. Is there any evidence that they’d be less inclined to challenge Gordon/more likely to throw to the edges of the zone if he’s hitting in the 8 spot as opposed to leadoff?
Last year, Ruben Tejada batted under .240, with a slugging percentage just north of .300. He was intentionally walked 11 times, and I would assume he was pitched around several times as well. There will be plenty of times that Gordon gets a free pass batting 8th that he otherwise wouldn’t have gotten.
The flip side is that perhaps the Marlins don’t feel like they gave up that much. Heaney was rated their top prospect in part because the system already graduated its elite talent. Jeff Zimmerman’s recent take was that Heaney may end up as a lefty specialist: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/quick-looks-at-heaney-anderson-pineda-hale/
This. The deal’s outcome depends entirely on what Heaney turns into. I have my severe doubts, and more importantly, so do people who actually know what they’re talking about. The out pitch is missing, and he’s a big injury risk.
Is there any evidence that percentage of plays made on easier plays fluctuates more year to year than percentage of plays made on harder plays?
Maybe the Marlins think that percentage of harder plays made is a better indicator of true talent level or something?
I don’t get this trade man.
The nature of sample size would make that pretty unlikely.
I doubt Gordon is much of an upgrade statistically, WARwise, or will bring the Marlins a flag, and is entirely possible, if not likely, that the Marlins bought high.
That being said, he is an exciting ballplayer, and to me is more a shot in the arm to the fan base. He is an All-Star infielder, and apparently lives in Florida, and will no doubt want to prove something.
So, dollars etc aside, I think it is a good move to add some excitement to this team.
I agree that Gordon’s probably better than his projection, and that his BABIP probably won’t regress much if at all considering his batted ball profile and speed… But even if he is a league-average or so player, considering what the Marlins gave up, I think this is a pretty dumb move by them. And yes, they identified a weakness and improved it, but the assets they gave up could probably have netted them a larger improvement – and it’s not like they’ve got a great chance at making the playoffs now, anyway. I agree that Gordon may be better than people think, but I think that’s still not enough to make this trade defensible.
I just realized how good a reliever Chris Hatcher already is. Nevermind, the Marlins probably didn’t really improve significantly here at all. What a steal for LA.
I don’t really think this trade was bad. If you think trading Gordon can perform like he did last year, then trading him straight up for Heaney doesn’t seem like a bad move. I would say the future performance of both Heaney and Gordon is murky, it’s not like either is a slam-dunk to perform well, so, seems like a fair deal actually. The other guys, a reliever who had a pretty good year, a utility infielder who the Marlins didn’t have any use for and is probably a replacement level player, and another guy for $12 million or Dan Haren, also doesn’t seem that bad, especially if it’s for $12 million.
The whole “Fangraphs is biased towards the A’s and against X team” is usually annoying, but kind of hard to see it differently here. The A’s trade, the talk was “it doesn’t look great, but could be good, and we’ll have to withhold judgment to see whatever moves they make.” Here, the Marlins are make the Haren move to free up money, which looks like the precursor to other moves, and then they DO trade for Latos.
Gordon and Yelich at the top of the order is a scary proposition, especially against RHs. With Stanton sitting just behind them, look out.
I’m not saying that makes it a great trade, but certainly an exciting one!