The Multiple Plans the Astros Might Have Involving Evan Gattis
It’s important to note this trade isn’t official yet. So it’s a little uncomfortable writing up an analysis, given that, who knows, something could go wrong in the physical. But, usually, those go fine, and even when they don’t, like in the case of the Matt Kemp deal, the trade might still go through anyway. So here’s what looks to be happening, in a Wednesday exchange between the Astros and the Braves:
Astros get:
Braves get:
From the Braves’ side, it’s easy enough to understand. Despite the puzzling Nick Markakis deal, the Braves aren’t thinking about 2015, and they know Gattis doesn’t profile great as a corner outfielder, so they’re giving up a piece of value now for a trio of prospects. One of the prospects is very exciting. Another has people who think very highly of him. Even the third guy might have a future. The haul’s good enough to at least temporarily distract Braves fans from the current makeup of the big-league product.
It’s the other side that’s more interesting. Not that the Braves’ side isn’t interesting, but this is the Houston Astros turning prospects into a shorter-term asset. It’s not the first time they’ve done that; last offseason, they gave up a couple pieces for Dexter Fowler. And the Astros have lately made some shorter-term decisions, so perhaps we’re observing an accelerating shift in front-office mindset. But there are a few different ways this could go. It’s not immediately clear where the Astros think they might be in eight or ten months.
Because the Braves’ side is simpler, let’s get that out of the way. In Gattis, they had a legitimate source of right-handed power, and he’s under control another four years. So, there’s pretty obvious surplus value, even if you don’t love Gattis’ potential aging curve. But, in Atlanta, he wasn’t going to catch. Nor was he going to play first base, and barring a significant change to the rules he wasn’t going to DH. It made sense for the Braves to put Gattis on the market, since he doesn’t seem like much of an outfielder. That he’s being moved isn’t a shock.
Of the pieces coming, Foltynewicz has the sex appeal. Behold:
He has big-time heat, he has functional breaking balls, and he has a changeup. Foltynewicz has the pitches of a starter. Except for the whole commanding-them part, which maybe isn’t a surprise; if Foltynewicz had better command, he’d be borderline untouchable, as a pitcher and as a prospect. Because he’s just 23, there’s time for Foltynewicz to refine his location, and the Braves will presumably give it their best shot in terms of trying to smooth him out. Yet the probability might favor that Foltynewicz will be a reliever, and he might not even be a closer depending on what his command would be in short stints. This is a classically exciting prospect and a classically risky prospect. Kiley had him seventh in the Astros’ system.
Kiley had Ruiz fifth in the Astros’ system. What he hasn’t done is hit for big power, or play a game above the California League. What he has done is control the strike zone, and been young for his level. Ruiz isn’t even 21 yet, and he just posted a .387 OBP as a steady-handed third baseman. He’s not known for his range, but his bat might even develop enough for him to work at the other corner. Ultimately, though, there’s progress yet to be observed, as Ruiz has more doubles power than home-run power. Based on the evidence I’ve found, last year Ruiz hit just one dinger the other way. The upside is that he finds power and sticks at third. The downside is that he’s a doubles-hitting first baseman. He’ll take time.
And then there’s Thurman, who Kiley ranked 21st. He’s not a nobody, but he’s definitely the relative throw-in. He’s 23, and he spent last season in Single-A, posting an ERA over 5. He fits that common low-minors mold of having inadequate command of adequate stuff. There’s at least no doubt he has the pitches to work in the majors if he more consistently figures out where to throw them.
It strikes me as a fair return for the Braves, even if they didn’t get a single sure thing. Gattis himself isn’t a sure thing, given his odd history, his injury issues, and the matter of his best position. When the Angels dealt the similar Mark Trumbo, they picked up Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago. Trumbo had one fewer year of team control left, but he had established himself as a bit more durable. And the Angels seemed to come out well in that trade.
So, the Astros. Let’s review a few things we know:
- The 2015 Astros don’t project well, according to Steamer
- The 2015 Astros don’t project well, according to ZiPS
- Evan Gattis doesn’t change the above very much
- Evan Gattis is a four-year player, not a one-year player
- The Astros have Chris Carter at DH
- The Astros have Jonathan Singleton at first base
- The Astros have too many catchers
It’s complicated. This could have a few different outcomes, and I don’t know if the Astros even know yet which path they’ll take. First, let’s consider Gattis himself. Here’s the appeal:
Gattis possesses what one might refer to as “stupid power”. That’s almost his whole offensive game, since he seldom draws walks. One additional variable is that he was mostly a catcher with the Braves, and if the Astros tell him not to worry about that, his offense could improve, as it’s been demonstrated that catchers suffer a batting penalty. Yet, Gattis has been aggressive for two years, with limited contact, and that’s probably just what he is. Wilin Rosario would be one pessimistic comparison. Michael Morse and Mark Trumbo are pretty fair comparisons. Of some interest: Gattis’ discipline numbers also compare well to Jose Abreu’s. Abreu’s coming off a 165 wRC+. Which isn’t to say that Gattis and Abreu have the same hitting philosophies and skills, but there’s upside in this package, even if it’s unlikely that Gattis ever reaches that level.
The complicated issue is trying to figure out why the Astros wanted to get Gattis today. It could be, they think he can actually catch. But it’s hard for me to see him catching, at least often. If anything, he’s a third catcher, providing some flexibility. For the moment, Gattis will not be DHing ahead of Carter. If he plays first, it’s ahead of Singleton (note: or Carter plays first, and Gattis DHs, but, anyway, same idea). Singleton was bad in his cup of coffee, so maybe the Astros figure he needs more seasoning in the minors. Gattis could help now, while Singleton could come back down the road. There’s also the option of having Gattis in left field. He’s probably not good out there, and Minute Maid has an odd left-field alignment, but it also has a somewhat small left field so perhaps Gattis could be hidden there. The Astros have other potential left fielders, like Jake Marisnick, but none of them are beating the door down.
Maybe this opens the door for a Carter trade. Maybe this opens the door for a Gattis trade, in a few months or a year. One explanation that was offered for signing Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson was that relievers fetch quality pieces around the deadline. It’s a seller’s market, now that there aren’t many sellers come July. Maybe the Astros gave up prospects because they think, in a few months, they could get even better prospects.
But maybe the Astros are trying to get better. Maybe this is all simple: they’ve added guys like Gattis and Neshek and Gregerson because they want to be a decent baseball team. For 2015, Gattis should be better than Singleton, and if Singleton takes a step forward, he’s not exactly blocked. Maybe this is about making the product more watchable. Maybe this is about getting a long-term piece now, even if it’s maybe a year early. Gattis’ power should last the length of his team control.
And then there’s the really exciting option: what if the Astros aren’t finished trying to improve? What if they go out and land a high-quality starting pitcher, as they’ve been linked to before? Such a pitcher should be able to fit in the budget, and while maybe the Astros wouldn’t be able to convince Max Scherzer to join the team, what if the Astros placed a call to Ruben Amaro? Or, what if they tried for James Shields? The Astros have two pretty good starters now, but very limited depth, so any impact acquisition would make a real substantial difference. If the Astros actually landed a big arm, the rest of the division would notice. Area fans would certainly notice. The Astros have been making progress toward contention, with generally more ups than downs. And maybe now they make a splash, similar, in a way, to the Cubs signing Jon Lester.
I don’t know. I can’t know, from here. All I can know is the Astros might have multiple plans involving Evan Gattis. They might not even know where they’re going, since there are only so many things they can control. But if the Astros do make a splash, don’t be too surprised. It’s something they’ve been preparing for. And this rebuild is approaching completion.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Singleton is not very good. Carter should shift over to 1st, Gattis can spot LF and DH. Perfect, right?
There’s not much difference between the two. Singleton walks and if his babip gods shine down he’s probably worth more in 2015.
Springer, Carter and Gattis all hit right-handed, and only Springer seems to have some idea of the strike zone. The Astros need some left-handed hitter — eg, Singleton — in the 5th or 6th spot in the lineup to break up the string of RH batters, otherwise other teams’ bullpens will eat them alive.
SS Jed Lowrie can hit left-handed and will probably be 6th in the batting order.
Singleton bats left. It was stated multiple times that he bats right. He bats left.
And it’s stated in the comment you’re replying to, so what’s your point?
Singleton had more than a ” cup of coffee” and he stunk. Though he did play a real good 1B. They also signed him to an extension shortly after they brought him up. And not a small one. So he’s not going anywhere. That said, They seriously screwed up by not sending him back down. He was awful. Worse than awful. They better hope he can get back. They brought him up way to soon to begin with. He missed most of 1 season when he was suspended. And then he gets back, plays a couple months in AAA and they bring him up? I’m sorry but this GM rushed some players. Now he’s changed the plan of building thru the minors already with this trade. Plus the pitcher he traded away to the Marlins last summer! That’s 3 now in less than a year. Nobody has that luxury of trading young arms when you’ve sucked for so long. You need everyone you can get. But had he just waited like originally planned in 2 years there would’ve been a team competing for the division at the very least for some years to come. The bats were coming but he is impatient and now he’s trading. Now what did this deal really accomplish as mentioned in the article? Gattis has one of those builds that it’s nagging injury after nagging injury. You watch. This GM is a joke! You will see when we are back where we were 2 yrs. ago in 3 years!
Singleton has nothing left to prove at the Triple A level, he completely dominates pitching at that level. He played last year at 22 years old and still had a 13 percent walk rate. He needs to see big league pitching. I think he will always be a high strike out player, but a high walk player.
Jarred Cosart is pretty terrible. The Astros dominated that trade.
He had a 1.69 ERA in Aug and a 3.19 in Sept. His ERA in 2014 was 3.69 I would hardly call that terrible.
You would think since this is fangraphs people wouldnt be enamored with artificial stats and incredibly low sample sizes. Cosart has never shown he has any control what so ever and his strike out numbers at every level were subpar to his stuff. He was absolutely atrocious with the Astros in 2013 even if his ERA was sub 2. Last season he had an xFIP over 4 and 5.74/3.64 K/BB.
“what if the Astros Place a call to Ruben Amaro?”
Amaro will propose something ridiculous for Hamels. Calling Amaro is useless.
What does Atlanta’s outfield look like now? Markakis. BJ, sort of. And…Terdo?
Yes and that is terrible. What a godawful lineup they’re going to have.
Braves will finish last in the NL East. No question.
Thanks, Paul. I’m sure you’ll be back here in October to apologize if you happen to be wrong. No? You won’t? You’re just a useless internet soothsayer?
They’d finish last in any other division, but lucky for them Philly exists.
I think this is a case where, to get what the move means for Houston, you have to remember that improving a bottom-of-the-barrel team has value apart from whether it puts them “in contention” or not. It sells a few more tickets, as adding wins always does, but maybe even more importantly it shores up fan loyalty and dampens that sinking-ship feeling about the franchise.
Just as a parallel case, the Mets have been in this position while rebuilding in the recent past, and Sandy Alderson’s made no secret that he puts some value (both dollar value and PR-strategy value) on “putting a quality product on the field” or whatever you want to call it, as an independent thing from improving the team’s shot at the postseason.
Also helps explain what the Braves did with Markakis. They knew the team would be bad next year, but they’d rather it not be worst-in-the-league bad, and Markakis only cost money.
worst-in-the-league bad gets better draft picks, though, right? if you’re going to rebuild, then rebuild. if you need to stock the farm, then stock the farm.
markakis probably helps them fight their way into 4th place in that division instead of fifth. i don’t see how that’s worth committing $40 mill more than what Aoki would’ve cost. still no way to justify that signing.
If a Jeff Sullivan post has only one GIF how can we be sure he even wrote it?
“I don’t know. I can’t know, from here.”
I think the Astros simply got a solid piece going forward.
Folty is probably a reliever or closer. The Astros just signed two “proven closers”…
Ruiz is still behind Colin Moran at 3B who displays a similar skill set and is closer to the majors.
Thurman is the throw in.
They gave up pieces that could be blocked and got a quality major league bat back that they can move if they want to.
Ruiz is a good step, but the Braves have traded for so many pitchers/pitching prospects and have such an utterly abysmal farm system in terms of offense that they really need to be focusing exclusively on hitters at this point.
Their track record at developing pitchers is good, and their track record at developing position players is spotty. Nothing wrong with loading up on young pitching and using it to trade for hitters when you’re in a place to contend. Indeed, they’ve done trades like a couple of times in the last few years: for Michael Bourn and for Justin Upton. (Obviously Prado was the big-name player going to the DBacks for Upton, but Randall Delgado’s years of control and upside was probably a bigger draw.)
You can trade excess pitching for offense??
Well… there is something wrong with that: pitchers are a more fragile commodity than position players, so if you’re looking at long-term trade assets, why go for the riskiest? Especially when your organization is really, really good at developing said risky asset on their own?
Are they REALLY better at pitchers? Heyward, Freeman, Simmons vs Minor, Beachy, Teheran.
I’ll have to see numbers, just doesn’t seem like they develop SP any better than anyone else. However, their “can’t miss” guys seem to be as advertised. You can’t really say “well Heyward and Freeman were top prospects” because every year top prospects fail.
Wood, Minor,Beachy,Medlen,Teheran,Kimbrel plus al ot of guys they traded away over the years like feliz, Wainwright…etc
we generally do a pretty good job at developing pitchers.
“Spotty” is a nice way to put it. Our development of proven position players is downright terrible.
How many hitters all of a sudden have a huge slump year(s) only to be moved and find their bat again?
Now, pitchers, they can come here from anywhere and remember how to pitch. Very similar to the Denver Broncos and runningbacks.
Random guys from the Braves going back through 2009 who have pitched for over 2 WAR and >60 innings:
Julio Teharan (x2)
Ervin Santana
Aaron Harang
Alex Wood
Mike Minor
Kris Medlen (x2)
Tim Hudson (x3)
Brandon Beachy
Derek Lowe (x3)
Tommy Hanson
Javier Vazquez
Jair Jurrjens
Tommy Hanson
I guess the Braves are just really good at creating #3/#2 pitchers. Aces are overrated?
Astros have been my most intriguing team since the end of the season – they have Altuve, Springer, and Singleton bought out through their arbitration years for peanuts. Their 2 highest paid players – Feldman & Lowrie – have curious contracts with DECLINING values over the next couple years. (Have wondered for a long time why teams don’t do that more often). 2/3rds of the guys who are not yet FA are still pre-arb this year and half of them are still pre-arb next year. They have (or had anyway) one of the best farm systems in baseball and still have 2 top 10 picks in the coming draft (which means they are compensation protected).
If they wanted to, they could make a huge splash this year. THat said, they are probably a couple years away.
Most teams don’t structure contracts with declining value because they are trying to win THIS year, so they are trying to get as many good players on board now as they can. If that puts them in a bad salary position in the future, they can always reevaluate as the future years become present and make moves accordingly (see Billy Beane). Here’s to the present, future be damned!
Assuming the same total commitment in terms of dollar and years, a declining value contract will therefore usually only make sense for a rebuilding team. More specifically, this is great for a team which knows it won’t compete this year and therefore isn’t spending all that much money on present talent, but wants some of its useful pieces around with more payroll flexibility in the near future when more of the cost-controlled talent has hopefully developed. Here’s to the future, present be damned!
Contracts don’t generally get structured with declining value because the folks who know the value of a dollar are the decisionmakers on the team side, the folks who like to boast about the nominal total dollars of the contract are the decisionmakers on the players’ side.
A contract that pays $9 million in year one, $10 million year two, and $11 million in year three is worth less than a straight 3 year/$10 million each year deal, and is worth significantly less than one that goes $11, $10, $9. Yet, for each the agent and player can boast about landing a $30 million contract.
With the comp. pick from Marlins Cosart trade, gives the Astros 4 of top 42-43 picks in the upcoming draft!
The Astros have not signed Springer to any sort of deal. Only Altuve and Singleton. Springer is still running on league minimum.
All we know about Luhnow is that he had a couple of good drafts in St. Louis. We also know he can destroy a team’s on the field product. We also know he can screw up a perfect draft and treat prospects badly. And we know he has a short fuse with managers.
We don’t know if he has any clue about how to run a baseball team. So far not looking great in that regard
You are right we havent seen him take the worst farm in baseball and turn it into one of the best. We havent seen him finacially handcuffed while still significantly improving the big league club. You are right we have not seen any of that.
We actually don’t know if it is a good farm system or not.
The ‘screwed Aiken’ just because they are cartoonish bad guys narrative is lazy and getting old at this point.
Wait, the tear-down had already started before Lunhow. That first 100-loss season was under Ed Wade, who actually got decent value after Uncle Drayton stopped demanding he try to compete while Drayton wanted to sell.
Astros will be better than advertised. Line-up of:
Fowler
Altuve
Gattis
Carter
Springer
Lowrie
Dominguez
Singleton
Castro
Don’t sleep on the Stros…
Did the Braves get more for Gattis than the Braves got for Justin Upton?
Well, considering that Gattis has 4 years of team control and Upton has 1…maybe.
Gattis has more surplus value. It’s not really that close.
As someone who is very familiar with that ballpark, I can confirm that, yes, that home run was hit very, very far.
#analysis
Stros are trying to convince Price to sign the 5-year $110M offer they have out to him. Gattis can’t turn them down to take less elsewhere.
Sorry, missed the part where Price is an FA.
I have heard this rumour elsewhere about Shields. It raises an interesting point, after the last Marlins firesale apparently no one would go there according to the media. The next offseason Salty signed as a FA and they now have Giancarlo locked up.
The Marlins were nearly as bad a team as the Astros in 2012, however Shields appears willing to sign with the Marlins for less money.
The two teams went different routes in their rebuilding, with the Marlins even in 2012 trying to win a few games (see the promotion of Fernandez, Jose).
Both the Marlins and the Astros improved in 2013, however the Astros appeared outwardly to be still unconcerned about wins, whereas the Marlins made moves to ‘improve the team’ whether you believe or not they actually did.
Is this the reason someone like Shields would consider the Marlins over the Astros? The Marlins appear willing to win now (not all in win now but still). Don’t get me wrong the Marlins are a better team with a real chance of the playoffs whereas the Astros are looking at 80 wins as a success.
Or could it just be that the weather in South Florida is the kicker!
This is a sign.
This is a sign that the rebuilding phase is over. This is the Astros’ first trade of “prospects” for a proven major leaguer since the Randy Johnson rental in 1998 and Moises Alou from the Fish Fry of 1997 if you want to consider longer-term players.
Luhnow has added a couple of key pieces to a few strong pieces in the pen (Qualls, Fields, Sipp), likely leading to one of the top 10 in MLB. The offense was already middle-of-the-packish with Singleton struggling, a half of a season from Springer, Fowler injury, Castro decline off of 2013 and not much the left side of the IF or the OF platoons & injury replacements. With reasonable health and the addition of Gattis & Lowrie, it’s easy to see it creeping into the top 10, as well. (I’d like to see Gattis/Carter DH/1B and Singleton sent down for regular ABs; Marisnick in LF.) If Keuchel & McHugh continue to be 2014 selves, they’re a big splash ace away from being serious contenders in 2015.
And then comes Luhnow’s farm system.
Why not talk about Thurman’s FIP? It’s a run and a half lower than his single-A ERA.
Also probably worth mentioning that he was the 40th player taken in the 2013 draft. It’s too soon for that sort of pedigree to be irrelevant.
Right, he was 1 pick away from being a 1st round pick.
He never had a walk problem in college. The Braves know how to find value in pitchers. Always have.
It would be a waste of time to send Singleton to AAA. He has proven the pitching there isnt advanced enough to get him out. He needs to see quality left handed pitching in the big leagues to ever improve. If he doesnt hit LHP he probably will platoon with Gattis for the next 4 years at first base. Both wont be worth very much.
Fowler needs to get traded. Springers defense is being wasted in RF. Tony Kemp needs reps in the OF and be brought up sooner rather than later. Grossman or Marisnick need abs. You know what you have in Fowler. Hes not coming back next season on a contract. Time to get something.
One thing about gattis is that he can be more than a low average hoss. He hit for higher average in the minors, and for a hulk who swings hard has surprisingly good bat control. Getting him in another org may allow him to find some of this potential. I don’t see Napoli numbers but he is better than a .260 hitter with the occasional long ball.
Napoli gets on base
The element you didn’t consider is that Dexter Fowler is in his last year before FA. He has a terrific OBP, but he spent last year proving that his subpar defensive numbers were not a weird artifact of Coors and his durability concerns are warranted. He is highly unlikely to be extended by the Astros- he wants to be (and presumably paid like) a CF but he really is an LF now. Marisnick on the other hand is an elite defender with an awful bat (if he can get his offense up to acceptable he becomes very valuable), so having Fowler in CF and Marisnick in LF is horrendously inefficient. With Gattis now likely in LF, look for Fowler to get moved, and evaluate the Astros side based on the net talent they gave up swapping 1-year of Fowler for 4 of Gattis.
The Astros long term LF situation is (or was, before this trade) highly unsettled, with several intriguing-but-flawed prospects in the mix. Starting quality OF has gotten extremely expensive in the free agent market, extending Fowler would be equivalently expensive, so it makes sense for the Astros to trade for corner OF stability. It eseentially means they only need one of Marisnick, Santana, Kemp, Aplin, and Philips to work out, which is a much more comfortable risk than needing 2 of them to work out.
Anyone know where to find the article(s) that covers catchers having a batting penalty?