The Next Prospects Who Could Pull a Glasnow
Among the biggest changes in on-field strategy this year is the Rays’ use of an “opener,” or a starting pitcher who isn’t a traditional starter in style and is expected to throw only an inning or two. While certainly notable, the role itself isn’t my interest here. Rather, I’d like to consider how Tampa Bay has cobbled together a staff from Blake Snell and a cast of misfit toys.
From talking to sources in and around the Rays, the use of an “opener” wasn’t a purposeful strategic shift on the organization’s part, but rather an attempt by the club to deploy the talent present on the roster in the most effective way possible. Snell is the only pitcher who won’t get an opener in front of him, while the rest varies game-to-game based on matchups and other factors. Much like the best coach in the NFL, the Rays are using a player’s strengths and building a scheme around it rather than building a roster around a scheme.
Consider this characterization of Bill Belichick’s coaching philosophy by Greg Bedard of SI in the context of Tampa Bay and their pitching strategy:
On both sides of the ball, the scheme is multiple and adaptable both to personnel and to specific opponents. The Patriots are never a team that just ‘does what it does’ on either side of the ball. There must be a level of unpredictability.
Recently acquired former top prospect Tyler Glasnow has been notably better in his 12 innings with the Rays, but the role the right-hander typically fills (the longest outing on his pitching day, usually after the opener) is a one that could create a competitive advantage for the Rays in player procurement.
Glasnow, and essentially everyone on the Rays staff except for Snell, isn’t currently good enough both to (a) take the ball every fifth day and then (b) consistently and effectively pitch from the first inning into the sixth. The reasons vary for the different pitchers used in this role, but it boils down to lack of secondary stuff or lack of consistent command.
Having a pitcher go three or four innings after entering in the second or third allows a club to curate matchups to the benefit of this second pitcher. Not pushing him to throw 100 pitches both lets him go max effort and also avoid hitters a third time through the lineup — while also opening up the chance to use him on shorter rest than usual.
From looking at who has filled this role for the Rays, sources have agreed there are three types of pitchers who fit into this job: the high-octane-stuff/questionable-command group (like Glasnow), the big-fastball/average-everything-else group (like Ryne Stanek), and the solid-average-stuff/advanced-command group (like Jalen Beeks). The members of each group can provide multiple quality innings but ended up in the industry’s discard pile because their three-pitch mix is wasted in one-inning stints and they aren’t good enough to be a traditional starter at the moment.
The Rays can be aggressive in acquiring and using misfit toys from other organizations with their new staff roles. Tampa Bay has four spots on their staff for young, mostly unproven three- to four-inning pitchers whom other clubs struggle to develop.
Those 29 other pitching staffs are mostly comprised of traditional starters and two-pitch, one-inning relievers. Both of those traditional roles are priced efficiently in the market, while this “second pitcher” is often available at a discount. This type of prospect usually ends up stuck in some sort of developmental purgatory, often getting a short leash in the big leagues, while the club tries to fit the round peg into one of those two square holes.
Since the Rays have a new trend of trading any non-core player once they hit arbitration for multiple upper-minors prospects who will soon play for the league minimum, let’s try to find their next “second pitchers.”
First, some criteria: prospect eligible (THE BOARD comes in handy for this sort of exercise), not in the top-50 overall (every team wants those guys and they aren’t often traded), in Double-A or higher (guys who are MLB-ready or close to it), currently healthy, and not in the Rays organization already. These aren’t the pitchers most like Glasnow, Stanek, and Beeks, but these are the best versions of that type of pitcher. I’ll limit myself to five candidates in each group, with some honorable mentions.
The Tyler Glasnow Group
The Idea
Huge stuff, some issues when left in a game too long. Possible durability and/or track-record concerns.
Criteria
Two plus pitches, third pitch is 55 or better, command is 45 or 50.
Candidates
1. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Braves (MLB) – 50 FV, 56th overall
2. Jon Duplantier, RHP, D-backs (AA) – 50 FV, 79th overall
3. Dennis Santana, RHP, Dodgers (AAA) – 50 FV, 105th overall
4. Hector Perez, RHP, Blue Jays (AA) – 45 FV
5. Jacob Nix, RHP, Padres (MLB) – 40+ FV
A few other pitchers are very close to qualifying for this group. A couple Padres (RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Michel Baez) sit just outside the top-50 overall constraint, but their command grades are too good to qualify. One pitcher, Pirates RHP Luis Escobar, just got to Double-A and hasn’t performed well so far, so he loses a tiebreaker with Nix. He’d be sixth, though. Six other pitchers, meanwhile, have one 60 and two 55 pitches, so their stuff is slightly behind the five listed, but close enough that this is splitting hairs: Phillies RHP Enyel De Los Santos, White Sox RHP Dane Dunning, Astros RHP Corbin Martin, Blue Jays RHP Sean Reid-Foley, A’s RHP Miguel Romero, and Yankees LHP Justus Sheffield.
The Rays’ newest pitcher is RHP Shane Baz, just acquired as the PTBNL in the Chris Archer deal, and he fits pretty clearly in this group. Baz has plus stuff, below-average present command, and enough raw talent to turn into a traditional starter, generally similar to Glasnow. He would fit near the top of this group if he were in Double-A, but he’s still in a short-season league now, as he’s 19 and was drafted out of a Texas high school last summer.
The Ryne Stanek Group
The Idea
Standout fastball, starter-quality command, not enough offspeed to get through an MLB lineup three times.
Criteria
A 60 or better fastball, 45-to-55 on the breaking ball, changeup and command.
Candidates
1. Cionel Perez, LHP, Astros (MLB) – 50 FV, 103rd overall
2. Beau Burrows, RHP, Tigers (AA) – 50 FV, 128th overall
3. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves (AAA) – 45+ FV
4. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals (AAA) – 45 FV
5. T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Blue Jays (AA) – 45 FV
There isn’t a long honorable mention list here, as these five separated themselves from the rest of the pack.
The Jalen Beeks Group
The Idea
Solid-average stuff with above-average command and some funk/deception which, during the third time through the order, becomes less effective against MLB hitters.
Criteria
Three pitches ranging from 45 to 60, average pitch grade between 50 and 55, command 55 or better.
Candidates
1. Griffin Canning, RHP, Angels (AAA) – 50 FV, 91st overall
2. Kolby Allard, LHP, Braves (MLB) – 50 FV, 104th overall
3. JoJo Romero, LHP, Phillies (AA) – 45+ FV
4. Shaun Anderson, RHP, Giants (AAA) – 45 FV
5. Pablo Lopez, RHP, Marlins (MLB) – 45 FV
A number of pitchers could qualify for this list if not for losing a current performance tiebreaker (Rockies RHP Peter Lambert and Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez), if I opted to include some 45 fastball types (Indians RHP Eli Morgan, Twins LHP Devin Smeltzer, Royals LHP Foster Griffin, Angels LHP Jose Suarez, A’s RHP Logan Shore), or if he gets promoted to Double-A, which could be very soon (Indians RHP Nick Sandlin). Here’s a little more on Sandlin.
There’s also some interesting 40 FV types who would be next up using the current criteria: Reds RHP Jimmy Herget, Blue Jays LHP Thomas Pannone, D-backs RHP Taylor Clarke, Indians RHP Aaron Civale, and Royals LHP Richard Lovelady.
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
I’m not well versed in prospects enough to say, but does Milwaukee’s move of Corbin Burnes to the pen qualify him to fall under a similar category?
Off-topic, but speaking of the Archer trade, any thoughts on Shane Baz being the PTBNL?
It is hard to put in words how much I love this article! thank you.
I didn’t catch that Shane Baz was the PTBNL pitcher, but if so that looks like a really good haul for a pitcher who looks like he’s gone the wrong way.
It still makes me wonder what the heck the Rays could have gotten if they had traded Archer when he was still the #2-and-dreams-of-#1 pitcher he was the last couple of years, but that was a pretty good haul for the time when they traded him. Hard to believe too many teams would have topped that.
In his chat today, Kiley said that there is speculation in the industry that Pirates’ owner Bob Nutting forced Huntington to change his prospect-hoarding ways and make this deal. Strange, since it’s such a dear price and a reverse of the Gerrit Cole deal in the off-season.
Pretty laughable that Nutting would ditch is money hoarding ways by choice. NH has been forced to hoard prospects over his decade in charge. I think the big attendance drop got Nutting’s attention and he was forced to dictate something as a PR move. NH made the best of it as he usually has.
Archer does not break the bank signed to way below market terms and with two options after 2019. He’s a dream asset for the pirates: only gets paid at all beyond next year if he’s worth it with the ability to cut bait entirely if he is not while maintaining theoretical “ace-ish” upside.
At the time of the trade, Glasnow also looked like a pitcher who’s gone the wrong way.
Yeah, but he was likely the least valuable piece of the three.
Kopech seems like a Glasnow clone, surprised not to see him show up here.
Kopech is the #16 prospect on THE BOARD! and Corbin Burnes #33 (in answer to Matthew Fanning above). Kiley’s criteria includes “not in the top-50 overall.” Kopech and Burnes look like TOR starters (Brewers are using Burnes in the bullpen for their playoff run now) not guys the Rays would use for 3-4 innings starting in the 2nd or 3rd inning.
I guess one forgets that Glasnow as a top 10 prospect too.
I think Glasnow and Baz were acquired simply to add two good young arms to the likes of Snell, Honeywell, and McKay. I don’t think there is enough evidence to support the idea that the Rays, in the present, view Glasnow as anything other than a traditional SP. He’s pitching short stints, not because they think he’s incapable of six innings, but because he needs to build his arm back up.
Are you positing the idea that pursuing “openers” would give any team an advantage in player procurement? That there is an inefficiency in the market, in general? I don’t understand why this applies only to the Rays. Like you say, they turned to openers this year as an expedient/experiment based on the personnel they had at hand. I don’t think they want to continue down this path though. They’d prefer a more traditional rotation filled with cheap, controlled young studs.
Fair point on the Rays’ view of Glasnow as someone who could be restored to a TOR starter. I think Kiley’s focus here is for guys who profile as 4th/5th/6th/7th starters. The Rays found a way to maximize the value of these guys (who maybe have only 2+ pitches or get by on command with only average pitches) by limiting them to being “seconders” who go 1.5x through the order. Obviously a team would prefer to have a rotation of 5 Blake Snells, but if you don’t have that then carry 13 pitchers and bullpen every 5th game.
He should have just written an article about the merits of these 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th starters, talked about how there is a general market efficiency, and mentioned that the Rays employed/introduced this strategy out of expedience this year. Future teams could do the same if faced with the same constraints. Here are some candidates for teams to pursue.
Instead he ties all of the Rays’ recent transactions to the preponderance of this strategy, and implies that they’ll make future moves with this strategy in mind. In reality, the Rays don’t want to continue this strategy and there is scant evidence that recent transactions show otherwise. That’s my point. I don’t understand why he structured it this way, and assumed so much about the Rays’ and their thought process.
I think it’s fine. The Rays think there’s an inefficiency in picking up FV45 pitchers rather cheaply which seems contrary to the idea that teams should collect bats since arms break all the time. One can envision even a playoff team going with 3 plus starters, 1 closer, 3 setup men, 2 openers, and 4 swing “seconders” and do what the Dodgers did last year in liberally using the Disabled List to stash seconders after a long outing.
An interesting article would then be how many seconders one needs to shuttle from AAA to the major-league club to make this work without wearing out the high-leverage relievers and if indeed FV45 arms are actually up to the task over a full season. This would have to account for a failure rate from the 3 plus starters and a failure rate for the “seconders”, though I think the point of the strategy would be to minimize failure (maximize success) rates throughout the staff.
This is really interesting! Where did Wilmer Font fit? Stanek group?
While I love the premise of the article and learning about the players who could fit what the Rays are doing right now I think it mischaracterizes how the Rays view Glasnow. He has not worked with an opener a single time with the Rays and they are attempting to “stretch” him back into becoming a conventional starter. He worked 1-3 in his first game, 1-4 in his second, and 1-5 in his third.
The second pitchers have really been Jalen Beeks, Ryan Yarborough, Yonny Chirinos. Stanek has been used primarily as an opener, not a second pitcher.
Rays openers this year have been Stanek, Wood, Romo, Font, Kittredge, and Venters. The “second pitcher” has been the likes of Yarborough, Beeks, Chirinos, Andriese, Banda, Faria, and Pruitt. The opener typically goes 1-2 innings and the “second pitcher” generally goes 4-5 innings. The Rays have also had conventional bullpen days mixed in as well utilizing a handful of relievers capable of going 2+ innings, some of which includes Schultz, Nuno, Alvarado, Castillo, Hu, and Kolarek. A few of these arms have been lucky enough to graduate into a starting role, just like any other starter expected to start a game and go 5-7 innings. This includes Faria, Chirinos, and Font. In Glasnow’s case, he has never been used as a “opener” or “second pitcher”, instead the Rays have been stretching him out to be used as a conventional starter.
What about a guy like Cody Reed from the Reds? Seems like he’d fit in somewhere between the Stanek and Beeks groups.
TLDR: We should all be excited because there is a legitimate chance that Dick Lovelady is a major league baseball player in the near future.
It sucks to be a Pirates fan : (
Wildly OT, but is now the time for the first full-length Wander Franco article? The guy is doing something unprecedented (at least since 2006, when the FG data stop) in the rookie leagues in terms of wOBA, BB/K, ISO, age, etc. He’s unbelievable. Also, he only failed to get on base one time ever (thru 51 games). He has spent more than 70% of his season on hitting streaks of at least ten games. He hit for the cycle with 2 HR (henceforth to be called the “Wander”) because normal cycles are basic. Plus there’s the obligatory Hundred Years of Solitude gag on his family tree.
Thanks for everything you do!