The One Way I’ll Second Guess Bruce Bochy
This probably has to be said up front; Bruce Bochy has historically done a masterful job of running his pitching staff in the postseason. It’s one of the main reasons — well, along with Madison Bumgarner anyway — that he has three world series championships, and is almost certainly going into the Hall of Fame someday. Over the long run, I don’t think bullpen management has been a weakness of Bochy’s Giants.
But there’s one thing about this Giants second half bullpen meltdown that I’ve never really been able to understand, or seen explained with solid reasoning. And this thing was only magnified during the season-ending bullpen meltdown in the ninth inning of the NLDS; why doesn’t Bochy trust Will Smith?
Over the last few years, Smith has been one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball. Since moving to the bullpen in 2013, he’s held opposing hitters to a .218/.300/.365 line, good for just a .291 wOBA. As a reliever, he’s struck out 32% of the batters he faced, so while he does walk more guys than you’d like, he’s still been highly effective overall.
To put that .291 wOBA allowed in perspective, batters have a career .281 wOBA against Madison Bumgarner. Smith has been, on a per batter faced basis, nearly as effective as the Giants ace. Which is why the Giants paid a pretty high price to acquire him at the deadline, making him their big bullpen acquisition for the stretch run.
And it’s not like he has ran any kind of significant platoon split. Lefties have put up a .280 wOBA against Smith (in his relief appearances), while righties have put up a .299 wOBA. He’s a little better against lefties, as you’d expect, but a .299 wOBA allowed is still quite good, and that’s against guys who have the platoon advantage against him.
Overall, Smith pitched pretty well in San Francisco. During the regular season, he pitched 18 1/3 innings for the Giants, holding hitters to a .197/.293/.258 line, just a paltry .254 wOBA. In the first three games of this series, Bochy had asked Smith to retire three batters, and he’d set them all down. During a time at which the Giants bullpen was a walking catastrophe, Smith was getting people out regularly.
And yet, Bochy just didn’t ever seem inclined to use him as part of the revolving wheel of closers, seeing him as more of a one or two out guy. Here’s how the Brewers used Smith the last few years, and then how Bochy used him in San Francisco.
| Season | vs LHB% |
| 2013 | 37% |
| 2014 | 44% |
| 2015 | 46% |
| 2016 MIL | 42% |
| 2016 SF | 51% |
Bochy didn’t turn Smith into Javier Lopez or anything, but most good left-handed relievers face more RHBs than LHBs, since teams will often pinch-hit for their weak LH starters late in games. For comparison, only 27% of the batters Andrew Miller faced this year were left-handed. To get Smith more at-bats against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters, Bochy had to not use him to start an inning if a right-hander was due up, and then regularly lift him for inferior right-handed pitchers if more right-handed batters were coming up after the lefty that Smith was called in to face.
We saw that exact situation unfold last night. Up 5-2 heading into the 9th inning, with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist due up, Bochy handed the ball to Derek Law. Law has been quite good for the Giants this year as well, but he threw 35 pitches in game three, the most of any reliever in the Giants bullpen. It is pretty rare that a manager will ask a reliever to pitch the day after he threw 35 pitches, but it’s the postseason, and based on how Law pitched in the regular season and last night, it’s not that hard to see why Bochy trusted him more than anyone else in that situation.
But once Bryant reached, Bochy decided to play the match-up game, going with Lopez to face the left-handed Anthony Rizzo, and then bringing in Sergio Romo to face the switch-hitting Ben Zobrist, even though Romo has given up a .295/.374/.464 line against left-handed batters the last few years. When those moves backfired, Bochy finally went to Smith only after left-handed hitting Chris Coghlan was sent up to pinch-hit for Addison Russell, even though Smith is the best left-handed pitcher the Giants had, and would probably have been a better match-up against both Rizzo and Zobrist.
Smith ended up facing Willson Contreras instead of Russell after Joe Maddon pinch-hit, and he gave up the game-tying single, so from one perspective, maybe this all seems like silliness; Smith was given the ball with the lead, and the Giants lost that lead after the first batter he faced. So why am I wondering why Bochy didn’t trust the guy who was on the mound when 5-3 became 5-5?
Because in that 9th inning disaster, Smith is the only one who deserved better. Law gave up a 94 mph grounder that Baseball Savant calculated would be a hit 60% of the time. Lopez walked Rizzo, even though up by three in the ninth inning, putting a guy on base isn’t much better than giving up a home run. Romo gave up a 99 mph line drive to Zobrist on a ball that’s a hit 65% of the time. These guys pitched badly, and got the Giants in trouble.
Smith? He gave up an 89 mph comebacker that was a few inches away from being an easy 1-3 putout. The expected average of Contreras’ ball? .214. As far as contact goes, that was about as perfect as the Giants could have asked for, except it managed to just get up the middle for a two run single. That’s baseball, but that wasn’t bad pitching.
Smith was left in to face another lefty, Jason Heyward, but was then removed after making a nice play on Heyward’s lousy bunt. That was Smith’s usage in San Francisco in a nutshell.
I don’t know that Will Smith would have done any better than the guys in front of him had he started the ninth inning. Certainly, it’s easy to sit here and say that a manager should have done this or that with the benefit of hindsight, and realistically, pretty much any collection of relievers should be able to hold a three run lead with three outs to go.
But the way Smith was used the last few months has just been weird. The team paid a high price to get a good reliever to upgrade their bullpen, and despite a total implosion from the internal options, Bochy kept going to just about anyone besides the good reliever the team traded for, even as the good reliever pitched really well. And then, with three outs to preserve their season and force a game five, Bochy went to three other relievers before he went to Will Smith, starting the inning with a guy who threw 35 pitches last night, then going to his second best left-handed reliever, and then going to a right-handed specialist against a switch-hitter; that right-handed specialist had thrown 32 pitches the night before too.
During his entire tenure in Milwaukee, Smith was never a lefty specialist, and the Giants certainly didn’t acquire him with the thought of having him serve in that role. But that’s kind of how Bochy used him, even when his alternatives were exhausted inferior pitchers.
Bochy has done a lot of things really well in his career, and I definitely don’t think I could manage a bullpen any better than he can. But I don’t know why he didn’t trust Will Smith in the final two months of the year, and I don’t know why he didn’t trust Will Smith in game four of the NLDS.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Followed the club all year. Trying to be objective as possible, he was horrible. I lost track at how many times he blatantly made bad decisions. Oh well, fun season regardless.
Who do you propose was “horrible”? Bruce Bochy or Will Smith?
Idk how I forgot to say Bochy. oy
talking about Bochy btw
Honestly I would personally leave Moore out there for the 9th. Pitch count be damned.
I would’ve used Smith
obv better than the decision they went with. I love how the bullpens are used these days, but I do think the concern with pitch counts is a little overblown. When they show a correlation between pitch counts and injuries I will believe it, but I would venture it might be a negative correlation.
more about effectiveness over injury
Why worry about an injury to Moore? The reason you play is to get to this point. It is not like he is some 18 y/o kid. His best days are already behind him.
Best days behind him?? Former top prospect that just had his first full year back from Tommy John entering his prime years with 3 years of team control left. Taking him out is fine, a reliever could have had an 18.00 era and gotten the save. Crawford making 2 errors last night loomed large, when one of the best in baseball on d plays like that your not supposed to win.
As you saw, no lead in the 9th inning is safe with the Giants’ bullpen. They should have left him in. Crawford’s two errors were very big, no question, although his double (near HR) was also big and the first might have been handled by Belt. But absolutely, we were shocked and disappointed.
I would have left in Moore but then put in Smith if he let anyone on.
I was thinking the same thing (at least in terms of letting Moore start the ninth; I don’t know the Giants’ pen well enough to have an opinion on who should’ve come in after that). He’d retired nine in a row when he was pulled. With a three-run lead, and given the Giants’ bullpen struggles, it seems like giving Moore a chance to at least get Bryant out would’ve made sense. I’m not even sure how strongly the usual logic of “pick a fresh reliever over a fatigued starter” applies here. I mean, sometimes you don’t realize a pitcher is fatigued until it’s too late, but with a three-run lead you have the luxury of judging Moore’s effectiveness batter-by-batter without risking letting the tying run reach the plate. And, while I’m no expert on the stamina of the Giants’ relievers or how they’ve generally been used this season, it’s not obvious to me that all the guys Bochy brought in were “fresher” than Moore. Law threw 35 pitches the night before; Romo threw 32; Strickland threw 19.
BLASPHEMY – this is the playoffs if you have not heard. This is a different brand of baseball. Of course, I am not being serious at all.
I thought that was the move as well. He was cruising.
The Dodgers left Kershaw in with a very similar situation—leading 5-2—and look how well that worked out.
Kershaw was on 3 days’ rest. Moore had last pitched in a game on October 2.
I’m not sure that Bochy should have stayed with Moore, but I’d say letting Moore start the 9th and then pulling him if anyone reached base was a better idea than his plan of Law, then Lopez, and then Romo.
Free Casilla!
He’s a Free Agent to-be.
Just needs to file for it to be free for anyone to sign
Was he healthy? I get that he got removed as closer, but how is he not an option? He is on the roster right?
He was on the roster but there was no way he was going to be used in an important situation unless there was absolutely no choice.
I’ve said for years Giants need to get rid of him. People are finally seeing it. This year his decisions really showed through to even hardcore fans.
The ONLY thing people have are “3 rings” but guess what the PLAYERS won those.
I wondered when the Giants acquired Smith whether it was just a lefty arm depth move or, what I hoped, was Bobby Evans locating a lefty to face both sides to replace the role Affeldt had in Bochy’s holster, because it was clear from Osich and Okert’s play earlier in the year that they couldn’t.
You’re right Dave, it’s just baffling that Bochy never trusted Smith fully.
It was to some extent both but Bochy never thought of using Smith as a closer, which was exactly the problem.
I have been saying the same thing for more than a month. It’s even worse than you say, because it isn’t just that Smith has been pretty good since joining the Giants, he has been incredible in the last 6 weeks. Here is his record since August 20 before the game last night:
Games 19
Innings 14.2
Hits 4
Runs 0
Walks 7
Strikeouts 21
Yes, some control problems, but he’s been essentially unhittable. When Giants’ fans would complain about the Giants not getting a ‘real closer’ by the trade deadline like Miller, Chapman, or Melancon, I would post these statistics showing that Smith was pitching better than any of them but Bochy simply wasn’t using him the way he should be used.
The same kind of thing happened on a lesser scale with Core Gearrin. Here’s Gearrin’s record in September
Games 9
Innings 6.2
Hits 3
Runs 1
Walks 1
Strikeouts 13 (!)
Gearrin was not even on the postseason roster.
Aside from the specific point about Smith and Gearrin, Bochy never grasped that his constant substitutions (like what he did in the 9th last night) projected a general sense of panic, made it impossible for any reliever to get settled in, and resulted in many situations in which he would bring in a reliever to face one particular batter who he would then walk–this happened many times over the course of the season, particularly with Lopez and Osich, and it was incredible than he had not absorbed this lesson by last night and made the same mistake yet again with Lopez. He didn’t understand that it can be better to just send the best person available out there and say you’re the man for this inning. He did that with Romo for 4 successful saves since Sept. 20, but Bryant’s homer on Monday made Bochy panic and revert the ‘matchup strategy’ he used last night–in fact, as disappointing as Romo’s outing was on Monday, he did settle down to pitch 2 innings with no more damage after Bryant’s homer, and they had a 3-run lead on Tuesday, so that if he’d done just as well or poorly last night, the Giants still would have won 5-4.
Law had a very good season, but aside from the 35 pitches he threw Monday, it was clear that he had not yet regained his arm strength after coming off the DL. In retrospect I don’t think that he planned to turn the inning over to Law because he’s never done that this season–his plan come hell or high water was to give the ball to Lopez against Rizzo and then match up.
This year Bochy seems to have had a platonic ideal of what a closer should be which resulted in a ranking of potential closers as (1) Casilla, (2) Strickland, (3) Romo, and possibly (4) Law. He seems to have adopted this ranking independent of how the pitchers had actually pitched over the course of the season or recently relative to any particular time. No one else was allowed to come into a game in a closer-type situation. Lopez was also given a pass to appear in such situations because it Bochy’s mind he represented the platonic ideal of a LOOGY, again independent of how he was actually performing this year. Smith (and for that matter Gearrin and Kontos, who at 2.53 had the second lowest ERA behind Law of any Giants’ pitcher this year) did not correspond to Bochy’s platonic ideal of what a closer should be, so he could not be used in such a situation.
And even aside from the question of how to use the relievers last night, there was in fact no reason to even take out Moore at all in the 9th. He had retired the last 8 batters he’d faced on counts of 0-2, 1-0, 0-1, 2-2, 1-0, 2-2, 1-1, and 3-2. He had pitched 8 innings, giving up 2 hits, 2 walks, 2 runs, and 1 earned run, and striking out 10. He had thrown 120 pitches but he was basically cruising (he threw 133 in the near no-hitter against the Dodgers in August).
Something was deeply flawed in Bochy’s usage of the bullpen this year. Overall it was not a bad bullpen, ranking 14th in xFIP, 11th in FIP, 15th in ERA. But the ratio of Shutdowns to Meltdowns (137/93=1.47) was only 24th out of 30 teams–it was used badly and this hurt the team. I don’t know how this can be reconciled with his historic record of bullpen usage but it can’t be denied.
You argue that Bochy didn’t allow any reliever to “settle in”. While intuitively, this makes sense, I wonder if it’s supported by data.
I would be very interested to know what the performance of relief pitchers is against their first batter versus subsequent batters.
Has any analysis been done on this?
Well most obviously the number off pulls, 424, that was #3 in the majors (behind the Dodgers and Braves). But what was really extreme was the number of average IP game–the Giants’ relievers had the 3rd MOST number of total games (575, also behind the Dodgers and Braves) but the 3rd LEAST number total batters faced (1992, behind the Blue Jays and Cubs).
I don’t know about data regarding pitching to first batter. It would be a very important statistic. Before this year I was a big fan of a lot of switching of pitchers but as the season went on I got more and more disillusioned with it specifically for this reason. I resisted this conclusion for a long time but in the case of the Giants’ relievers this year it was just too obvious to deny.
One IMMEDIATE game comes to mind – Atlanta June 1st. I traveled to ATL which is why I remember it so well. Suarez made a start in place of Cain and only went 5 innings (also the game Pence tore his hammy).
Despite having to get 4 IP from his pen he used a speed dial of pitchers and he did that quite a few times.
Also did it in Boston when I went there – using 5 pitchers in one inning.
I would almost guarantee those are the innings the games fell apart
The reason why Bochy went with Lopez and Romo is he doesn’t trust young players and goes with players who won it for him in the past. He chose to bypass better pitchers because he believes Lopez and Romo have something intangible that the young pitchers don’t have, call it experience or grit. The effect of Bochy’s bullpen usage has been to increase the pressure and wear out the young pitchers because they feel the manager doesn’t have confidence in them and fear that one bad outing will put them in his doghouse. Bochy should have noticed earlier in the season the Casilla wasn’t getting it done and attempted to work Law and/or Smith in as closer. Law and Smith are the Giants’ best relief pitchers but because of Bochy over reliance on veterans they never got a chance. Going forward, Evans must not resign Casilla, Romo, and Lopez because Bochy will continue to misuse them.
If you look carefully, age/experience isn’t the explanation for Bochy’s behavior. The first person Bochy tried to go to as a closer was Strickland, not Romo, and Strickland was only 27 at the time (he’s now 28), whereas Romo is 33. He sometimes talked about Law being ‘in the mix’ to close games, and Law is only 26, but he never mentioned Smith this way and only went to Smith last night after after Law, Lopez, and Romo. Smith is 27, 9 months younger than Strickland and more than a year older than Law, yet somehow Law got in front of Smith in Bochy’s potential closer succession.
I have searched in vain for any rational explanation of Bochy’s behavior. I can only guess that at some point in the past–probably around the 2014 playoffs–he decided that Strickland would be the next closer after Casilla (maybe subconsciously), and pretty much nothing could convince him otherwise until the first half of September, when he tried Strickland as closer and he failed miserably. This is why the Giants didn’t try to get a closer at the trade deadline. Instead they got Smith, and it seems that the only explanation for this is that Smith was supposed to replace Affeldt, who retired last year–he’s a lefty with basically no platoon split. Meanwhile Law had pitched extremely well, leading the team in ERA, and this resulted in Bochy putting him in line for the closer role (in case Strickland should fail) in spite of his age. When Strickland failed, though, Law was only recently back from the DL and was clearly not strong enough, so Bochy had no choice (to his thinking) but to turn back to Romo as closer, with Law also ‘in the mix’ if and when he should get his strength back. Meanwhile Smith had pitched incredibly well but Bochy hadn’t even noticed it in terms of the closer role because he was thinking of him as being Affeldt’s replacement. Aside from this, Bochy was in practice also repeatedly using lefty-righty matchup moves of which Smith was a crucial part because although he wasn’t particular strong against lefties, at least he wasn’t weak like Romo, Casilla, and Strickland, and although Lopez was the go-to LOOGY, Bochy would often need two LOOGIES in the same game.
Bochy’s bevahior was so irrational that it’s difficult to give it any explanation, rational or irrational, but I think that it must have been related to Smith being a lefty and Bochy assuming (subconsciously?) that any lefty should be either the successor to Affeldt (the role for which Smith was evidently acquired in the first place) or the eventual successor to Lopez (the role in which he was in practice used), but not a closer. He simply didn’t consider the possibility that Smith could be a closer because his previous closers with the Giants had been right-handed. Of course this makes no sense but it is consistent with what Bochy did.
Romo was hurt early in the season and there was a question about his ability to pitch back to back games. Perhaps, that is why Bochy didn’t go with Romo as closer earlier. Anyone who follows the Giants should know that Romo is a Roogy at this point in his career and should not face lefties in high leverage situations.
You’re correct in that Bochy thinks in baseball cliches. Strickland throws 97 – so he’s closer material, Romo did it before – so with his grit he can do it again. Law is a rookie – A Rookie can’t be a closer. Smith is a lefty – A lefty can’t be a closer. Bochy is predictable if you understand the way his mind works.
I don’t know why he didn’t just put in Romo at the beginning of the 9th. For me I think it might have been my third choice behind (1) leaving Moore in (2) putting in Smith, or maybe (3) putting in Strickland at the start of the inning, that is, it was still a better choice than what he did, the ‘logic’ being that even if Romo did as badly as he did the day before, the Giants still would have won 5-4.
Obviously in principle lefties CAN be closers, for example Chapman. I’m not sure if Bochy generally believes that lefties can’t be closers as a matter of principle or whether his career with the Giants has led him to categories lefties as being either Affeldt types or Lopez types.
Bochy deserves the credit with that meltdown… he went total Matt Williams there. The performance of the accomplices does not excuse him from losing his mind and giving three guys the hook after one hitter… those guys look like DeNiro and Walken in The Deer Hunter.
With a three run lead, you have to go to the guy who can get you through the inning first… if he can’t get 2 of the first 4 guys, then you piece mail it… or at least die knowing you went with your best option.
BTW, what the hell happened to these guys (the bullpen)? Weren’t they actually good in 2014?
This was a microcosm of Bochy’s behavior this year. He’s been doing things like this all year but it was particularly ridiculous because it was an elimination game, Moore was pitching great and shouldn’t have been pulled at all, and there was another 9th inning meltdown the day before so it’s not like he could claim the situation was under control. But if you’ve been following the Giants all year, this wasn’t even a surprise, literally not even a surprise.
They were awesome in 2014 but they got old. Affeldt retired, Casilla is 36, Lopez is 39, and Romo is 33. Maybe 33 isn’t too old but Romo was injured a lot of the year and for old reason or another really lost velocity. The last few years they decided to focus on going after starting pitching (where age was an even bigger problem), and I certainly can’t argue with that. They have some promising young relief arms but no one who’s proven. And then got Smith who’s been great but Bochy hasn’t used him right. Bochy just didn’t handle the aging problem well, a deterioration was to be expected but with Smith and the young guys it shouldn’t have been historic like this.
Source: FanGraphs
Count me in the “Scold Bochy’s Panic Approach” club. He did it for the last month of the season, at least. How’s that work for a pitcher’s confidence/anxiety ratio?
As for Will Smith in particular, I suspect that Bochy suffers biases of recency and eyewitnessing just like the rest of us, compounded by already mistrusting his whole bullpen by the time Smith arrived. Smith was hit hard in his very first game as a SFG, and yielded 6 runs and 11 runners over his first 4.2 IP. And he’s been awful when pitching against the Giants. And he’s not exactly a brand name; in fact, his generic name might even have played a part in Bochy’s “who-he?” mindset.
The panic approach actually started much earlier, I would say in late June. It got completely out of hand the last month.
dare i say, bochy was desperate lol
He was desperate because he was stupid, he didn’t see the answer right in front of his eyes so he desperately looked around for some other answer which wasn’t there. I’m not saying turning to Smith would for sure have solved the 9th inning/closer problem, but (a) Smith’s last 6 weeks have by far been the best extended period which any Giant reliever had this year (or for that matter for the last few years), and (b) Bochy tried practically everyone else in the 9th inning/closer role–Casilla, Strickland, Romo, Lopez, and Law–with much less statistical evidence to suggest that they would succeed, so it’s ridiculous that he didn’t try Smith also.
And he had another very simple non-desperate answer yesterday, just leave Moore in the game. Just do nothing.
I guess it must have looked pretty funny if you weren’t a Giants’ fan. But if you were and had been following the team, you’d know that it was desperation stemming from stupidity. Or blindness.
yup, certainly leaving moore woulda been an obvious call with three runs in the lead and him dealing like he had been (though the umpire did give him many generous strikes, but whatever), but the biggest straight up stupid move that bochy made last night was bringing law in to start the ninth. i get that he was a big factor for the giants the previous night, but that is where this all started. he threw 35 pitches the night before, over two innings, which is two different warmups, and he wasn’t exactly sharp having thrown only 19 of those 35 pitches for strikes. idk if it was something to do with his little league type cheerleading in the dugout or what, but there was no reason law should have been out there, and he was incredibly erratic against bryant, and ended up having to groove him a pitch, to the nl mvp. and idk maybe it’s just because having gone to two comeback games in the same week during the season, i came to expect it, but once rizzo walked i thought this game is tied. this team just seems to build seemingly unstoppable momentum when rallying late and behind. romo had no business being out there either considering how much he threw the night before. but we’ve seen wil smith plenty during his time with the brewers and honestly there’s never certainty facing him. if not moore, it should have gone to smith.
but in all honestly, after the moore move, there had to be as much credit to maddon for baiting bochy as there is to bochy for mismanaging. and maybe im being too hard on bochy, and enjoying this a little too much. but i think the stupidity stemmed from desperation, or maybe they just fed each other, but the way he managed the bullpen the last two days, honestly the way both he and maddon managed their bullpens the previous night was a huge factor. save for chapman and montgomery, none the the relievers for the cubs threw even ten pitches the night before, essentialy the cubs had all hands on deck for game 4, and bochy had burnt two, arguably three, of his leading bullpen options the night before.
In terms of stupidity I think I might rank pulling Moore slightly ahead of putting in Law although putting in Law was also very stupid. I didn’t attribute it to the towel, I attributed it to (a) having been very impressed with Law before he went on the DL (and generally seeing Law as a ‘closer type’ and not really grasping that he simply wasn’t as effective when he came back, (b) having appreciated the fact that Law had thrown through Gillaspies error on Monday, and maybe (c) if I remember correctly, Law looked better towards the end of his outing on Monday than the beginning, and Bochy may have forgotten about the beginning. I am not sure if the number of pitches he had thrown the day before played into Bochy’s ‘calculations’, because he used Romo who had thrown two innings also and in any case brought in Law for only one batter (I’m pretty sure he would have left even if he’s gotten Bryant out).
I’m not exactly sure what you mean about baiting Bochy, to mean to bring Smith is so he could pinch hit with Contreras? Smith has no platoon split anyway, if that’s what you’re thinking of.
no but it was somewhat of a platoon for contreras, who hit forty points better against lefties, i know he’s had a short career and therefore a small sample size, but i think it’s fair to say the chances of him putting the ball in play in a good position were better than coghlan’s or russell’s. coghlan was atrocious against lefties. and russell was hitting .067 so far this postseason.
and im assuming that the previous night’s pitch count didn’t play into bochy’s calculations, and perhaps they should have to both his decision in law and romo. i dont remember exactly how the latter part of his outing in game 3 went exactly, but i think youre right that he settled down and was more effective. regardless, that night he had to warm in the pen, take his mound pitches, pitch an inning, sit down, take his warm up tosses and pitch another inning. and for a relievers arm, that is beyond what is normally asked of them.
aslo, idk if it’s relevant to note but i will anyway, will smith’s line against the cubs this season was .455/.600/.636
Maybe from Maddon’s perspective there was an advantage in having Contreras facing Smith, but from my perspective I had been thinking BRING IN SMITH and DON’T BRING IN ROMO from the moment that it became apparent that Bochy was going to pull Moore, so it was difficult for me to perceive this as Maddon outwitting Bochy so as to get Romo out of the game and get Smith in.
Smith didn’t really get his act together until mid-August. He had two bad outings against the Cubs in July before he came to the Giants (0.2 IP, 5 hits, 5 runs). In the September series he pitched an inning and gave up no hits. That isn’t much data.
for what it’s worth, ben zobrist hit 40 points better against left handers too, which is why i think bochy wanted a righty against him.
smith himself isn’t that unfamiliar to the cubs, after holding the cubs hitless over 5.1 innings in 2014, he allowed 2 hr’s and 2 2b’s against them in 8 innings in 2015. and by the time he faced the cubs again this year, they had his number. when they faced him in september as a giant, he walked 3 of the 6 batters he faced.
FWIW, there have been just 2 postseason wins in which 3 pitchers faced 1 batter. Both were Joe Torre’s Yankees. One set all pitched in extra innings, while tied (1996 ALDS Game 2). The other set all pitched in the 8th with a 3-run lead, with Mariano held in reserve, and the Yanks up 3-1 in games (1999 ALCS Game 5).
Now, those criteria constitute a huge selection bias. But it helps show how unusual Bochy’s approach was.
The 2016 Cubs are better than the 2016 Giants. It was a crazy way to get that result, but the result is there. Giants fans jumping on Bochy is embarrassing. I guess 10-1 in elimination games and 11-1 in playoff series isn’t enough. Smdh.
Should a manager be treated different than a player? I don’t pay a free agent for what he did last year but what he does moving forward right?
Bochy is a great manager. That doesn’t make him infallible.
I’m really not convinced Bochy is a great manager. Anyone who watched more or less all the Giants games this season could not possibly conclude that he’s a great manager. What he did yesterday was not just some random careless mistake. It was the culmination of a season’s worth of mistakes, greater in degree but similar in kind.
It’s exactly comments like yours that make so many people hope the Cubs lose in spite of the teams’ history. The Cubs and (many of) their fans deserve some sympathy, I like rooting for underdogs, they even have a few players I really like (Hendricks and Baez), I might have even rooted for them against anyone they play because of their history, but making the playoffs into an issue of ‘which team is better than which team’ is as stupid and obnoxious as making it an issue of ‘even years’. It just isn’t the issue in the playoffs. ‘That result’ doesn’t prove that the Cubs are better that the Giants any more than the Giants’ successes in the postseason in past years proved that the Giants were better than the teams they beat.
The Giants outhit the Cubs for the series .252 to .200, had a higher OBP .275 to .247, a higher OPS .619 to .597, and struck out fewer times 29 to 38. The Giants pitchers stopped all the Cubs’ starters other than Bryant and Baez–no one else hit even .200 (Fowler .133, Heyward .083, Rizzo .067, Russell .067)–whereas Panik hit .600, Gillaspie hit .400, and Belt and Blanco were the only starters who hit under .222. The Giants had a better zone rating 6.5 to 5.5, and fewer errors 4 to 5. If Bochy had had the sense to leave Moore in to pitch the 9th, the statistics would be even more one-sided in the Giants’ favor–it was Bochy who got Moore out of the game, not the Cubs. The objective statistics evidence doesn’t show that the Cubs were better in head-to-head postseason competition, if anything it’s the reverse.
But the Cubs deserved to win. It wasn’t luck, they did what they had to do when they had to do it. Maddon for sure managed better then Bochy, and it played an important role in the Cubs victory.
Stupid managing is stupid managing and it’s frustrating. Moore pitched a helluva game, Smith has been incredible for the last 6 weeks, and Bochy just hasn’t taken advantage of it.
You talk about the giants hitting better than the cubs and then credit maddon? Maddon is the reason that happened. Willson contreras needs to be starting everyday, catcher or left field. He reached in 5 of 7 plate appearances.
You mean that Maddon should have started Contreras more often? I had the impression there was some defensive reason for this.
Yeah, he played at an all star level all year. It was strictly defensive but corner outfield d isn’t that important, especially when it means Russell’s hitting 5th. Russell’s a stud, and I expect him to continue to improve but it shortens the hell out of that lineup.
“It’s exactly comments like yours that make so many people hope the Cubs lose in spite of the teams’ history.”
Strong words coming from someone who’s notorious on this site for being rude and garnering tons of downvotes.
This isn’t the only place I post. This is very much a pro-Cubs site.
You are the biggest, most annoying troll on this website, by a large margin. Your post incessantly and constantly have belittled the Cubs from start of the Cubs season to finish of the Giants’ season. Make like SFG and go on offseason.
And yes, it’s fine to criticize manager performance. But plenty of SF fans want Bochy’s head which is supremely ironic. They are forgetting their 50 years in the wilderness.
I am not at the point of calling for Bochy’s head. But his handling of the bullpen this year has been truly horrifying and I am not really convinced that Bochy was the decisive factor in the Giants’ coming out of the wilderness. They were fortunate to have a very stable core of relievers (Casilla, Romo, Affeldt, and Lopez (Wilson earlier)) for a long time, they all happened to fit very well into roles which were widely accepted around baseball at the time, and the managerial decisions Bochy made in handling them were for the most part not very complicated (I never saw him thinking with anything like the kind of complexity which Francona for example is showing). The team has a solid core of promising young relievers and they should be developing them now and focusing their external efforts on repairing the outfield situation which is about to collapse, not on making staggering sacrifices to bring in a ‘real closer’. But Bochy does not seem to be capable of developing a new relief corps based on homegrown talent + Smith. This is why I think it’s worth considering moving on.
Look, while we all can annoyed with and rubbed the wrong way by John for the Giants comments sometimes (often), he is definitely not a troll.
It’s exactly comments like yours that make so many people hope the Cubs lose in spite of the teams’ history. The Cubs and (many of) their fans deserve some sympathy, I like rooting for underdogs, they even have a few players I really like (Hendricks and Baez), I might have even rooted for them against anyone they play because of their history, but making the playoffs into an issue of ‘which team is better than which team’ is as stupid and obnoxious as making it an issue of ‘even years’. It just isn’t the issue in the playoffs. ‘That result’ doesn’t prove that the Cubs are better that the Giants any more than the Giants’ successes in the postseason in past years proved that the Giants were better than the teams they beat.
The Giants outhit the Cubs for the series .252 to .200, had a higher OBP .275 to .247, a higher OPS .619 to .597, and struck out fewer times 29 to 38. The Giants pitchers stopped all the Cubs’ starters other than Bryant and Baez–no one else hit even .200 (Fowler .133, Heyward .083, Rizzo .067, Russell .067)–whereas Panik hit .600, Gillaspie hit .400, and Belt and Blanco were the only starters who hit under .222. The Giants had a better zone rating 6.5 to 5.5, and fewer errors 4 to 5. If Bochy had had the sense to leave Moore in to pitch the 9th, the statistics would be even more one-sided in the Giants’ favor–it was Bochy who got Moore out of the game, not the Cubs. The objective statistics evidence doesn’t show that the Cubs were better in head-to-head postseason competition, if anything it’s the reverse.
But it doesn’t matter. The Cubs won because they deserved to win. They weren’t lucky, they weren’t necessarily better in a general sense, they weren’t particularly helped by the umpires (although some Giants’ fans think otherwise)–they won because they did what they had to do when they had to do it and the Giants didn’t. The Cubs didn’t hit much but they put their hits together much better than the Giants did. Some people would say this was luck or sequencing but I don’t care, they deserved to win and that’s all that matters. I’ve interacted a lot with Cubs’ fans the last few days and to some of them I’ve said good series (which it was) and good luck, but only if they came in with a good attitude. Saying ‘this shows my team is better that your team’ isn’t a good attitude, it’s just stupid, just as stupid as that Giants’ fan who started coming around here recently saying the Giants win because of pixie fairy dust or something (the 3 rings guy, I don’t remember his name).
Heyward tried his hardest to blow that rally
by forcing the defense to make a play? even if crawford’s throw was on target, it looked like heyward was going to beat the double play anyway. it was his running that forced the issue for the defense, and the psychological impact of losing a three run lead in the ninth was something he capitalized on. but i guess there’s two sides to this.
That was a bad bunt, not the decision, the execution. contereras busting it to second is what saved heyward.
yes, the bunt was bad, but heyward’s running saved the play. contreras didn’t even come close to putting pressure on crawford. you both should read this: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/205845830/jason-heyward-posts-fastest-home-to-first-time/
Crawford stood on second and threw off his back foot. Normally a ss comes across the bag to get his momentum behind the throw, it increases the accuracy and velocity of the throw. I attribute part of that to a 240 pound catcher that would have slid in his path had he tried this.
I think there’s a good point in there – I’ve seen lots of people presume that Heyward would’ve hit into a DP had Crawford done his job, but it seems obvious to me he would’ve beaten even a good throw. (The rest I don’t agree with at all – his running forced the defense? He capitalized on the Giants’ psychological meltdown? So Heyward did something there to compel Crawford to throw the ball to the wall? That strikes me as silly.)
i know it sounds difficult to quantify, but crawford has an average glove-to-release time of 0.646 seconds, on this play his time 0.467, only to throw it still late, and off target. he wouldn’t speed up his mechanics unless he was forced to do so. i’m saying heyward’s speed down the line, the quickest statcast has ever tracked him, was a factor. and the psychological aspect of trying to do too much could just be narrative, but i have to assume he’s human and felt the pressure to make a play a big play in a big spot that he probably couldn’t.
forgot to mention him scoring from second on that short single by baez
It was so sweet watching the Giants getting eliminated at home. The playoff game last night was the best one in years; the Giants thought they were going to even it up, and the Cubs slammed the door right in their face. Sweeeeeeeeet.
Giants fans are going to hate this but buster Posey did not do a good job calling pitches in the 9th. How do you ever throw Baez a fastball? There’s a reason he has a zone % in the 30’s!
It’s not just that he threw him a fastball – it was an 0-2 fastball! Now, maybe it wasn’t Posey making the call. Or maybe he was thinking, “well, Baez KNOWS we have to throw him a breaking pitch here, so we’re going to fool him with the FB.” Whatever the case, it seems too cute. I don’t know how you don’t try to get him to chase one outside the zone.
In Alex Pavlovic’s gamer: “All season long, Bochy had operated with a quick hook, a situation relievers grumbled about behind closed doors”
Wait, so a 99 mph line drive into the corner is only a hit 65 percent of the time? Apparently I’m not watching enough games where teams play crazy shifts.
Think that probability is just based on exit velocity, launch angle, and distance, so the fact that it went toward the corner isn’t part of the probability calculation. The outs are presumably balls hit with that trajectory right at outfielders.
Managers look bad when their relievers perform bad. Smith took a clear step back in his production this year from a breakout 2015. Part of it was his decreased velo following the freak accident in spring training, and I wonder if he tried to come back too quickly? I think this could be the last we see of him. I hated the trade when the Giants made it in July, I think they gave up way too much for him, and I wish him luck in retirement.
“I think this could be the last we see of him”
what
Gotta be trolling….
Relievers flame out all the time. Bruce put a lot of trust in him with the game on the line and he failed where the Giants hadn’t failed in this decade. You seriously think he can come back from that?
Uhm, he didn’t put those 2 guys on and have up a groundball not hit all that hard. He posted the second lowest fip of his career and is a high k reliever at 27 years old. In what world did he flame out…
See the stats I posted above. Smith had been practically unhittable for 6 weeks or just check yourself. You must not have looked at too many games this summer.
6 hot weeks does not a season make, and if anything that masks how truly bad he was with the Brewers. He was bad when it counted and I don’t think he’ll be given another chance after this screwup.
A disastrous 3.68 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9.
If you think that’s bad, you must not have watched a lot of Brewers baseball recently.
That’s not a top-tier reliever.
Ah, I see. You’re a Brewers’ fan who wants to see him do badly.
Bochy used 5 relievers in one inning…. he didn’t trust anybody in the bullpen and was grasping in the dark for an answer.
I think you need the full context of SF’s season to grasp (if not excuse) Bochy’s RP usage.
First, while I’m sure he never bought the EYBS, they raced off to a 57-33 start and a 6.5-game lead at the Break. That record far outstated their true strength and built false expectations — they were +4 to Pythag and had played a weak schedule — but there they were, on top of the world.
Then it immediately fell apart. They went 9-21 out of the Break and fell out of first place, while starting the whole “best first half / worst second half / never been done!” narrative. Had their record built gradually to 66-54, the whole mood would have been different — they were just 1.5 games out of first, with a 2-game lead for WC#1, utterly in control of their destiny. Instead, it felt like a monstrous collapse.
Now, that tailspin was MUCH more on the offense (3.6 R/G) and rotation (5.32 RA/9), but what could Bochy do about those, beyond yanking Matt Cain? The pen as a whole was fine in that stretch (3.22 RA/9), and overall was much better in the second half than the first. But the bad starts and lack of scoring, especially late in games, highlighted every late run allowed. Casilla as closer had two big blowups in that tailspin, and Bochy began hypermanaging — probably because that’s where he thought he could make a difference. After all, that’s a big part of his reputation.
Starting with the 9-21 tailspin, I think he fell prey to the “I must work harder!” fallacy, which naturally spread to the relievers he called on. And we saw its climax last night.
The problem with your narrative is that Bochy was overmanaging even when the team was doing really well earlier in the season, it was just that (a) people didn’t notice it so much because after all the team was winning, (b) he was using the starters deeper into games so that the number of innings in which he could actively overmanage was less, and (c) the overmanaging had not yet spread into the 9th inning because Casilla was still completely secure in his role as closer. When the starters began to go sour in July, they pitched fewer innings and Bochy therefore simply had more available innings to overmanage in, which made it seem that he was overmanaging more (in addition to the fact that the team was losing). This was more important in my opinion that a feeling that he had to work harder. Then when Casilla officially lost the closer role in early September, this meant that Bochy could also overmanage the 9th, and that’s when things really got out of hand.
Thanks for that insight, JFtG. I started tracking the Giants in their post-break tailspin, so I never suspected Boch had been doing the same when they were winning. Now looking at game logs, I think you’re right — e.g., RP outings of 2 batters or less divide almost perfectly at the season’s midpoint.
P.S. johnforthegiants — Wow, I didn’t even realize the extent of Bochy’s RP hyperactivity:
Outings of 2 batters or less this year: 1) Giants 197; 2) Nats 126. That’s a leading margin greater than most teams’ total.
Same stat, all-time: 1) 2016 Giants 197; 2) 2015 Giants 170; 3) 2014 Cleveland 153; 4) 2012 Giants 150.
Just, wow.
Yep. It was a nightmare. The pitchers were nervous wrecks.
Bochy did what he always does. He sticks with “his guys”, and sometimes he does so for way too long. He did the same thing with Nunez, batting him 8th while Denard Span kept hitting leadoff. It just bit him this year.
I’ll admit that I’m going with some hindsight here and that we’d hardly be discussing this point if the Giants’ bullpen had pitched even a little better, allowing the Giants to cling to a 5-4 win.
That said, I do think that Dave’s making a great point in noting that two of the first three batters were faced by pitchers who each worked two innings and threw over 30 pitches the night before. By contrast, Smith had thrown 9 pitches (1 inning) and Strickland had thrown 19 pitches (1 inning) in Game 3.
Looking at ESPN’s game log summary, I see that Law twice threw 30 pitches in a game this season (30 and 31). He didn’t pitch the next day on either occasion. I don’t see any prior occasion when Romo had thrown 30 or more pitches in a game over the past 3 seasons (including the 2014 post-season). This year, I only see a few games where Romo threw over 20 pitches, topping out at 24 (he didn’t pitch the next day after that). That’s of course information that Bochy could review between Games 3 and 4 as he thought about bullpen availability / prioritization. I will add the caveat that Bochy obviously has more information than we do about how his pitchers’ arms feel and how sharp they look warming up in the bullpen.
As a more general question: has anyone seen research on whether batters benefit when facing relievers on multiple occasions over the course of a short period of time (including back-to-back days)? We’re of course well aware of the times through the order penalty for starting pitchers as evidence that hitters benefit the more times they face the same pitcher in a game. Doesn’t seem crazy to surmise that a similar penalty could apply to relievers over a short number of games, though I’ve never seen research exploring that idea. FWIW, in Game 3 Law had faced Bryant (strike out) and Romo had faced Zobrist (line out to center). In Game 3, Strickland had faced only Russell, Baez, Contreras, and Heyward, while Smith had faced only Coghlan, Fowler, and Bryant.
So, anyway, Bochy not only went with two relievers (Law and Romo) who had thrown more pitches the night before than the alternatives (Strickland and Smith), but he also went with pitchers that those Cubs hitters had faced in Game 3. I’m speculating, but it feels like Bochy worked from the idea that Law couldn’t pitch much in Game 4 so he gave Law one right-handed batter (Bryant) rather than starting with a Plan A of figuring out how to get through the inning with his two better-rested relievers (Smith and Strickland). To Dave’s point of trusting Smith more: Strickland for Bryant followed by Smith for Rizzo and subsequent hitters seems like a perfectly acceptable plan to get through that inning without relying on the two guys who threw a lot of pitches the night before.
Quoting Dandy Don
Turn out the lights,the parties over.
Cubs Win,Cubs Win !
I will second guess Bochy all day long because when it boils down to it he constantly makes mistakes and is bailed out.
1) Why was Romo never given a chance once he was fully healthy in July? Better closer than Casilla, Strickland, Law, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. and he NEVER had a save opportunity until near the final week of the season. Bochy literally triever every single option a few times before going to a PROVEN closer with an 82% save rate (F-Rod is the active leader and is 86%). 82% is NOT an all-star closer but it IS a good closer and better than anyone else on the team.
Will Smith is NOT a closer and never has been. He is a set up man by trade and 7th inning before that.
2) NLDS Game 3 you have 2 on and nobody out in the 8th inning and bottom half of the order coming up only down 1. COMMON SENSE says you use Pence (who has not been doing well) and bunt the runners over. Now, Pence doesn’t have many sac bunts (1 career) so maybe you PH but COMMON SENSE says you bunt so you’re in a situation to score without a hit. Instead Bochy lets Pence hit who strikes out and now the Giants are in dire need of a base hit. LUCKILY he gets saved by the heroics of Gillaspie.
3) NLDS Game 4. Romo should have started and finished the 9th inning. This bull of using 20 pitchers an inning is ridiculous and I said it way back in May it would cost us the season – was right. Easy to say that now but it doesn’t take rocket science to figure it out.
4) going back to 2014 WS Game 7. Anyone remember Baker choosing Livan over Rueter? Baker was blasted before the game and he stuck with Livan. and by the 3rd inning the game was out of reach. Fast Forward to 2014 and what does Bochy do? Chooses Huddy over MadBum. ZERO was said about the stupidity of the decision and LUCKILY MadBum came in and bailed Bochy out. Bochy gets the credit but it was MadBum who did it. It was BOCHY who ALMOST cost the Giants the WS the SAME EXACT WAY they lost in 2002.
5) 2016 NL Wild Card Game… Giants had runners galore the first 3-4 innings and the Giants were facing arguably a Top 5 pitcher in baseball and DEFINITELY in the NL. Given theyre bad at scoring runs, especially the back half of the season it makes ZERO sense that small ball was not used to advance the runners. Instead they kept running into outs on the base paths and Bochy got bailed out by.. Gillaspie.
6) go way back to 1996 the Padres won the NL West but according to Baseball Prospectus Bochy had one of the worst managerial seasons in the HISTORY of baseball.
These are only a few examples of why I would love for Bochy to be removed. He has the respect of players because he sits back and he lets them play but when it comes down to truly having to make in game decisions he has ZERO feel for the game compared to other MLB managers. Why else would the Giants have had the COLLAPSE they had the 2nd half of the season and not once was Romo given a chance to close until the final 9-10 days of the season.
I have criticized Bochy constantly in this thread so I’m certainly not defending him as a matter of principle, but every single one of your comments here is stupid. The crowning one is that Bochy sits back and lets players play in a discussion about a game in which he used 5 relief pitchers in one inning.
Well said, johnforthegiants. I sometimes agree with you, sometimes not, and you’re absolutely correct here.
I particularly like the idea of having someone try a sacrifice bunt against Chapman, who throws triple digits without great command. And that’s beyond the more general baseball issue of being willing to give up an out when the tying run is already in scoring position and the pitcher on the mound posted a 14 K/9 rate this year.
Olney on ESPN has said while talking to Giants people, he got the sense that they were wary of using Will Smith in those kinds of situations. Smith has some really big splits this year in high leverage situations. Batters had a .755 ops against him in high leverage situations, .631 ops in medium leverage situations, and .474 ops in low leverage situations.
He threw 40 innings total, breaking that in to subsections is ridiculous.
Not saying the 40 innings this year are indicative of who he is as a pitcher or going forward. He was just explaining why in the second half Bochy didn’t seem to trust Will Smith enough to use him as closer and instead as just as a one or two out kind of guy. Giants people didn’t think he was great in high pressure situations, and he was just trying to use recent stats to explain why the Giants would think that.
If Bochy really paid any attention to leverage statistics, he would have tried using George Kontos as closer (career ops 538/703/637) instead of not letting him even pitch in the 8th let alone the 9th. His whole career Kontos has been a great high-leverage pitcher and Bochy simply doesn’t care. Derek Law this year didn’t exactly inspire confidence in high-leverage situations (ops 680/502/606), but Bochy let him start the 9th in Game 4. For that matter, Smith in his career no pattern of being worse in high-leverage situations.
Did Olney say that the Giants referred to ‘high-leverage situations’ or was their just the general feeling that he wouldn’t respond well to pressure? The monthly statistics suggest that the Giants avoided using him in high-leverage situations in August but did this much more in September (his monthly gmLIs are 1.60 for June, 1.48 for July, 1.07 for August, and 1.73 for September). My recollection is that in the 2 and a half weeks after the Giants traded for him when he was pitched badly, he basically wasn’t used in important situations unless the game was complete chaos, mainly the 13-8 loss to the Phillies where Smith got a loss and the 8-7 win over the Marlins where he blew a save. His ERA for August was 5.59 whereas his ERA for September was 0.00, so it looks from this like he actually pitched better in high-leverage situations. This would suggest that the bad high-leverage data for the season can only be from the two months in Milwaukee, but if the Giants were going to consider that, then they also would have considered his career leverage data, in which case they would have seen no leverage splits. So I don’t understand what the idea that Smith can’t pitch well in high-leverage situations could be based on–there’s no evidence for this over the course of his career and there’s if anything the reverse evidence since he’s been on the Giants.
In retrospect I wonder if maybe the Phillies game had a huge effect on Bochy’s thinking about Smith. It was the first game he pitched after they got him, the Giants had come back from a 6-0 deficit to tie it 8-8 (Bumgarner gave up all 8 runs), Strickland and Law pitched shutout innings in the 6th and 7th, and then Bochy put in Smith in the 8th. He struck out Galvis, gave up an infield hit to Herrera, and Hernandez doubled. Romo then came in with the score still tied at 8, gave up a single, walk, and homer, and the Giants lost 13-8.
Is there any way to get game-by-game leverage data?
It would seem that any impression that Smith can’t pitch in pressure (high-leverage) situations can only be based on the time Smith was with the Giants, because there is no evidence for this in his career in general. This would presumably be associated with Meltdowns. Smith had 4 Meltdowns in the 2 months he was with the Giants, and considering that the team had no fewer that 38 Meltdowns in those two months (that’s not a typo, they really did), it seems pretty strange to single out Smith as having demonstrated that he couldn’t pitch in high-pressure situations. What is true is that Smith’s 3 Meltdowns (out of 14 on the team) in August did lead the team. Aside from the 13-8 loss to the Phillies, he also messed up in an 8-7 win over the Marlins (came in with a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the 7th and gave up a single, a double, and a single, although the Giants won 8-7 in 14 innings and there was general euphoria about the game especially because Crawford got 7 hits) and a 10-7 win over the Mets (he came in with and 8-4 lead and 2 on and 1 out in the 6th and 3 runs score on a triple and an infield out, though he still left with the lead.
Sorry, this just doesn’t sound that bad especially considering the cataclysm of Meltdowns which occurred in September. In any case the Giants won two of the three games so it’s difficult to see how they could have had such a psychological impact. An argument could be made that in August Smith was the least reliable reliever because in general the bullpen was quite good in August, but in September the bullpen generally collapsed while Smith was excellent. Bochy seems to have simply not noticed or cared.
It is indeed possible that the 13-8 loss to the Phillies (which really just amounted to Hernandez’ double, because an infield hit can happen to anyone) really did cement the idea in Bochy’s mind that Smith couldn’t be trusted. The team had a bad streak after the All-Star Game, lost two to the Nationals but then won two from the Nationals right at the trade deadline. They got Smith and put him right into the next game in the 8th inning with the score tied and his line score read 0.1 IP, 2 hits, 2 runs, loss. The turnaround ended, the team continued to flounder in August, and so Smith had failed to turn things around. It’s incredibly stupid, but clearly whatever Bochy’s thinking was was incredibly stupid, so it is definitely a possibility.
Olney said from speaking with Giants people, it seemed they felt Will Smith wasn’t great in high pressure situations. The leverage numbers were something Olney brought up by himself.
The player game logs at baseball reference include leverage index. It’s the “aLI” column.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=smithwi04&t=p&year=2016
I can believe that they said this but i don’t see what they would have based it on. It isn’t true of his career leverage statistics. It doesn’t seem to be true of his statistics with the giants this year. I guess it wust have been true of the two months he pitched for the brewers thid year but this seems like a really bizarre way to focus the data sanple, particularly considering that right after these two months thegiants traded for him.
Thanks for the reference. He did have one Meltdown in September, came in with 2 outs none on and a 1 run lead in the 8th, got a walk and an out, that was no problem, then it the 9th he walked Rizzo to lead off and was out (Casilla successfully finished the inning and the Giants won 3-2). Amid the cataclysm of the Giant’s bullpen in September it’s hard to get too hysterical about a bases-empty walk.
Looks like the high-leverage problems this year were when he was with Milwaukee, as I suspected. He had a disastrous spell with 4 Meltdowns June 14-21 (2 losses, 2 blown saves) and two WPA catastrophes on July 17 and July 24. Not impressive but if the Giants’ were going to consider this time period, why not consider his whole career.
So I still don’t know what this statement that Smith isn’t great in high-pressure situations could be based on. Frankly it sounds like an attempt to justify a decision which had been made for other reasons or no reason at all.
Smith is NOT a closer. He has 28 9th inning appearances in his career. Most of those were non-save situations.
Romo should have been closing Game 4
Absolutely foolish idea. Romo had thrown over 30 pitches the night before. Go look at his game logs with pitch counts (at ESPN). I did, and I didn’t see a single occasion when Romo has thrown that many pitches in a game in the past 3 years, much less done it then pitched the next day. Romo shouldn’t have been facing any batters this game over better rested relievers, much less pitching the entire inning.
The 4 pitching changes caused 10 minutes of delay. That had to kill the fielders, and perhaps led to the Crawford error that cost led to the winning run. Also, he didnt seem to get any of those R-L matchups he wanted due to pinch hitters (surprise, surprise). I think his big mistake was not deciding on his best available pitcher and going with him. This wasn’t a 1 run game, it was a 3 run game. Even bad pitchers usually get out of an inning without giving up 3 runs or more.
Bochy overmanaged. This is a teams biggest obstacle to winning, their manager, Maddon overmanaged in game 3 and cost his team a W, but Bochy matched him and gave it back
Bochy didn’t get the matchups he wanted because Maddon is 10x the manager Bochy is.
Whither the33RINGS? Awfully quiet…
True Giants’ fans aren’t afraid to face the public when the team is eliminated.