FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 10/11/16

by Paul Swydan

October 11, 2016

9:01	Michelle: I love the annual! Is there an official release date yet?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Paul Swydan: The Annual is slated for release at some point in mid-November.

9:03	Matt: Gregory Polanco or Trevor Story in dynasty?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Polanco, though it’s close.

9:03	Big Joe Mufferaw: Is Gary Sanchez a top 3 catcher in next years fantasy drafts?

9:04	Paul Swydan: He’s definitely in the discussion, but I don’t know that that means he should be drafted early.

9:05	Minty: I believe that Benintendi will be a good real life player, but will he be overrated in fantasy, like Yelich, with a high OBP and good D, but not many HRs or SBs?

9:05	Paul Swydan: No I don’t think so. I think the homers and stolen bases will come.

9:06

Bill: 5×5 roto with OBP replacing BA, and $500 cap. Five keepers among (could also buy a keeper slot for approximatelty$10): Odor at $26 (can keep 1 year): Sano at $21 (can keep 2 years; Chris Carter at $22 (can keep three years); Moncada at $11 (can keep up to 3 years) Urias/Reyes/Cotton, each at $11 (can keep 3 years) C Rodon and Blake Snell at $17 (can keep 3 years); Any consideration for Kepler, H Perez or R Schimpf at $11

9:07	Paul Swydan: Maybe Schimpf. Def keeping Moncada, Urias, Odor, and then two of the rest.

9:08	Minty: Are you scared of Sanchez’s big jump in IP, or is there not enough evidence to scare you off?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’m not scared off, no.

9:08	filihok: I didn’t see the Dodgers/Nats game. Did I miss anything?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Well there was a great Kershaw/Harper at-bat in the 7th.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Also, Joc Pederson pimped what he thought was a homer, but it was only a double. That was fun.

9:09	anon: how come madden keeps batting baez so low… 7th!!! between heyward and ross

9:10	Paul Swydan: Probably to keep the pressure on him as low as possible. Also because Joe Maddon is too cute for his own good.

9:10	Minty: Are you buying Alex Reyes as a legit keeper, or does he need to show more control first?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Legit. He’s already been handed a spot in the rotation for next season, and even if he isn’t this good next season, he’ll still be plenty good.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Yeah, sorry, in the keep 5 question above, Reyes should def be in the mix. When I see Reyes, I still think of Jose Reyes.

9:11	Fred : Who should be the Jays game 1 starter? I’d go with JA Happ. He’s been the most consistent starter all year.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Gotta ride with Sanchez.

9:12	Minty: Paul, what can we expect from the Annual?

9:13	Paul Swydan: So much good stuff. 30 articles this year. I don’t want to short change any writer by specifically mentioning one piece but not another, but I am more excited about this year than I have been about any year, and I’m generally pretty excited about the book.

9:13	Scott: Do you ever struggle separating the player from the person? I want to like Matt Bush. He’s an awesome pitcher and I get that he’s an inspiration to some. I just can’t get over his past. Disease or no disease, the off the field stuff is rough to read.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I absolutely struggle with that. If we didn’t, we wouldn’t be human.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I can’t ever see myself rooting for Matt Bush.

9:14	ChatzMcGee: Having a Cody Allen probably makes going to Andrew Miller early much easier right? Do the Dodgers have a Cody Allen? They should’ve traded for one.

9:14	Paul Swydan: It does make it much easier, but any team left in the playoffs should have at least two pitchers that they trust.

9:14	Hammerleg: How is it possible that Fox is the only baseball-broadcasting network that doesn’t use some form of an on-screen K-zone? I’m completely confused by this.

9:14	Paul Swydan: They use it on replays, I believe, but yes, it’s a head scratcher to say the least.

9:15	Alex Reinhart: The home plate umpire refusing to check with 1B when the batter really did hold up — most infuriating call in baseball or most infuriating call in all of sports?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure that’d even be in my top 5.

9:15	anon: Has there been any work done on RPs that do better starting a clean inning vs coming into a messy situation (2 on 1 out etc)? I was wonderregarding Chapman last night. He seems to throw better/has better results when noone’s on base

9:16	Paul Swydan: That’s a good question. I feel like there has been, but I’m not able to recall any seminal studies right now. That’s Jeff’s job, but he’s sick tonight.

9:16	Cheese: How bummed are the Dodgers that Kazmir isn’t opting out? Really bummed, a little bummed, or whatever – 2/36 isn’t that bad in this market.

9:16	Paul Swydan: The latter – 2/36 is a great deal and in a winter with little available pitching, they should be able to move him if need be.

9:16	Jarrods agent: Jarrod Dyson… Full time player or at least strong side of platoon/defensive replacement/pinch runner? If they want to save money just trade cain and play him in center right?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I think their outfield should certainly feature at least a heavy side platoon from Dyson. Burns and Orlando are good 4th/5th outfielders. I don’t know that trading Cain is a good idea, unless the Royals are all of a sudden committed to a rebuild.

9:18	5 Run Homer: I don’t like watching the Dodgers at home without Vin Scully

9:18	Paul Swydan: Prob should get used to it tho.

9:18

PeteD: All things considered, I’m skeptical of postseason baseball being the same beast as regular season baseball. I’m tired of hearing from friends that postseason pitching stats aren’t that relevant because the sample sizes are too small (Bum and Price come to mind). Would you contrast the evaluation process of postseason pitching with that of regular season pitching?

9:19	Paul Swydan: They’re relevant, they’re just not as revealing. For the most part, players who play enough postseason games will see their postseason stats line up with their regular season stats.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Wow, huge strikeout for Lackey there.

9:20	Paul Swydan: And yes, FOX used a K zone on that replay.

9:20	99: What are the formalities / unwritten rules of changing team allegiance when your team gets knocked out of the playoffs? Is a Red Sox fan ever allowed to root for the Blue Jays?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I would root for any team outside of the Yankees, and even they have players that I like these days. I don’t think there are formalities or unwritten rules, but if you need someone to guide your process, Emma Span makes a cool postseason flowchart every postseason over at SI.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Myself, now that the Red Sox are out, I’m pulling for the Indians.

9:21	Travis: How did Chipper Jones only finish 12th in MVP voting in 2008?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, I’d like to say it’s because he only played 128 games, but Manny and CC got a lot of love for their half seasons that year.

9:23	Paul Swydan: To be fair, that was a pretty deep year – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=8&season=2008&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

9:23	Paul Swydan: 8 guys in the NL at 7 WAR or higher.

9:24	Paul Swydan: David Ross is the answer to Conor Gillaspie.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Contrast that to this year, when only 2 NL players reached 7 WAR.

9:25	Big Joe Mufferaw: I know the Britton thing is getting old, but wouldn’t he have the “Right” to ask for a trade at this point? How can your manager not use you, The teams best weapon, in a do or die game? Would his return be Andrew Miller-esque?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t say he has that right, no.

9:25	Minty: Can we preorder the Annual?

9:25	Paul Swydan: No, unfortunately because we self publish, that option is not available to us.

9:26	Tommy Lasordid: Roberts almost blew it for LA. Why in god’s name didn’t he bring in Blanton right after Kershaw. Hopefully he learned. GO Dodgers.

9:26	Paul Swydan: At least the Dodgers survived and we get a Game 5.

9:26	Murdoc: Do you think the slide rule should be changed?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Sort of, but I don’t think there’s a real good compromise there.

9:27	Dr Evil: Roberts leaving Kershaw in for 110 pitches on 3 days rest until he loads the bases… this was crazy yes?

9:28	Paul Swydan: The specific pitch count I didn’t think was crazy, but I certainly lift him after 6.

9:28	Slider: What happens to Napoli this offseason? With the Indians plethora of OF’s to fill DH at bats and small payroll, is his departure a foregone conclusion?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I think a lot of that will come down to what happens in the next couple of weeks.

9:28	ChatzMcGee: The “Kershaw chokes in the playoffs” narrative will continue after today, because ERA (nevermind the circumstances leading to those “earned” runs against), does that infuriate anyone else?

9:29	Paul Swydan: To be honest, it would have infuriated me a few years ago, but I can’t be bothered these days. I put most of those 7th inning runs on Roberts and not Kershaw, but he still could have probably executed better in that inning too.

9:29	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:29	Paul Swydan: hi Bork!

9:30	Daniel José: Is there any chance to Byron Buxton have a Mike Trout-esque breakout in 2017?

9:30	Paul Swydan: There’s always a chance. I’m not ready to go quite there yet. How about we start with a Vernon Wells or Devon White or Adam Eaton type of breakout first?

9:31	Jaime: Most important player still in the playoffs? Miller? Bumgarner? Kershaw? Harper?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’m not a big fan of breaking things down to 1 or 2 players, but given how Francona deployed Miller, it might just be him.

9:32	Paul Swydan: We’ll have to see if he keeps it up, or if it was a gambit better served for a best of 5.

9:32	Paintrain: Do think it is at all possible that the jays replace edwin and Jose with reddick and votto next year?

9:32	Paul Swydan: No.

9:32	Tommy Lasordid: How much pressure do cubbies feel if there’s a game 5?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Probably not that much. Most of the guys on that team are young.

9:32	Horace: So many seem to be determined to pry Trout out of Anaheim. Let me try on Red Sox behalf: Angels get JBJ (instant CF plug-in!), Pomeranz, Travis Shaw, Blake Swihart and minor league pitchers Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Chandler Shepherd (RP), and someone from high-A. Deven Marerro, too!

9:33	Paul Swydan: That’s not even remotely close enough, sorry. The only good players in that package are JBJ and Pomeranz, and neither has much upside.

9:34	Minty: Sick play by Baez

9:34	Kent: Best play of the postseason?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Maybe!

9:35	Gern Cranium: Closer Rank in a Dynasty league please…Thornburg, Allen, Melancon, Davis?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Hard to rank Melancon until we know his 2017 team, but assuming he stays in Washington, I’ll say Melancon, Thornburg, Allen, Davis.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Can’t have Allen too high with Miller around.

9:36	anon: awful lot of cubs runs this series have been via the HR, unlike the regular season

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’m sure they had 4-game runs in the regular season where their proportion of runs scored via the homer was similar/higher.

9:37	Dr Evil: Should MLB consider maybe 1 off day per series or Is the travel that rough (East/West coast matchups are pretty tough)? Seems like that would lead to less shortening of the pitching staffs and bullpens

9:37	Paul Swydan: I think the off days are there because it’s no fun to watch a team at 80% strength. Or, it’s less fun, anyway.

9:37	Paul Swydan: 1 sec

9:39	Paul Swydan: ok

9:40	Eric Weinstein: David Ross recently said Javy Baez is the best defensive player he’s ever seen. I don’t know I’d go that far, but do you think he might be the best defensive player in the game right now?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Not as long as Andrelton Simmons is still around, no.

9:40	Sean: Don’t know if you were asked this already, but thoughts on Kershaw starting?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I wasn’t. I would have started Urias. Obviously it worked out today, but the strategy seemed weird to me. As Joe Sheehan mentioned on Twitter, if you were willing to start Kershaw on 3 days rest, you should have been willing to bring Jansen in in the 7th.

9:41	anon: chances that cubs would consider switching baez and russell defensively

9:42	Paul Swydan: I’d say they’re low. While Joe Maddon is big on switching guys around to different positions, it’s telling that Russell only played one position this season. That likely means that Baez is more comfortable moving around, and as such, I would expect things to remain that way.

9:43	Jarrods agent: How did people under rate Baez and Russell’s defense by so much? Scouts put 55 ceilings on them. They are pretty clearly 65 minimum.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Scouting is hard. When Nolan Arenado was coming up in High-A, the story on him was that he was a great hitter but that his fielding was a work in progress. Then he came to the majors and the story was completely reversed. And then later he also became an awesome hitter.

9:44	Ryan: Mariners: Playoff bound in 2017?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I don’t think that they’re a favorite for a spot at this point in time, but let’s see what they do this winter. Year one under Jerry Dipoto went well, and I like Jerry, so I’m optimistic about their 2017 season, especially if Felix rebounds.

9:44	Roger: Re: Shortstop Defense: Does Boegarts stick at SS long term in Boston?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:45	Dorf Mungler: If Trout is traded, isn’t it likely to be a three-way, on the grounds that no one team has enough top prospects to get him?

9:45	Paul Swydan: No. Can you imagine being the team that participated in a Mike Trout trade and DIDN’T get Mike Trout? You’d never hear the end of it.

9:45	Roger: What does the Astros rotation look like next year after Keuchel and McCugh?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Well, hopefully McCullers is good to go. Fiers will still be there. And Musgrove would seem to have the inside track on the fifth starters job.

9:47	Minty: Correa, Seager, both, or neither most likely to stick at SS?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Both of them

9:48	ChatzMcGee: Anthony Rizzo finally getting a hit alert.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yay!

9:48	Paul Swydan: I remember one year in the ALDS – I think it was 03 or 04 against Oakland – Manny Ramirez didn’t get a hit (or had like, 1 hit) coming into Game 5, and then hit a monstrous home run that won the game. Everyone shut up about the first 4 games after that.

9:49	Rick: Most surprising team position player WAR leader: Gary Sanchez (Yankees) or Neil Walker (Mets)?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Definitely Walker.

9:49	Paul Swydan: He would maybe have been my 4th guess on the Mets. Maybe.

9:49	Josh R.: I have never sen THT Annual. But I have been loking for something better to replace my Baseball Prospectus annual. Does THT have comments on tons of players?

9:50	Paul Swydan: No, our Annual is more focused on essays and a season recap. You can see previous editions of the Annual here. http://www.hardballtimes.com/bookstore/

9:50	Paul Swydan: We are definitely not trying to live in the same space as the BP Annual. I don’t know why anyone would, it’s a great book!

9:50	Jarrods agent: Re trading cain, can’t you do both? Trade him and compete. Like almora, hammel and zagunis for cain? Rotation help, cain replacement no ready, and interesting bat in zagunis for the same price as cain? Isn’t it just reallocating resources to fill holes?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yeah but what are the Cubs doing with Cain? They already have Fowler, Zobrist, Heyward and Soler.

9:51	Paul Swydan: I think it’d be hard to get fair value for Cain, because he’s one of those guys that’s above average at everything without being really awesome at anything.

9:52	Paul Swydan: He’s the kind of guy you hold on to.

9:52	Conner: Is there actually a nonzero chance Trout gets traded? Seems like he’s so good that he’s acasually priced himself out of any trade possibilities

9:52	Paul Swydan: I think it’s non-zero, but I’d put it at less than three percent. There’d be no reason to go to Angels games for the next 5 years if you trade Trout. There’s literally not one other reason to buy a ticket to their games.

9:53	Jarrods agent: Fowler a free agent.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I suppose, but I’d think he’s going back. Last year, they had the qualifying offer thing to work through. But I don’t think he’s allowed to be QO’d a second year in a row, so they’ll work out a longer deal.

9:54	Paul Swydan: And if he’s not back, well, they still have 3 outfielders who can play every day.

9:54	Jaime: How many relief innings (if any) could Bumgarner pitch in a hypothetical game 5?

9:54	Paul Swydan: That’s tricky. Relief innings for a starter are a lot easier to dial up in the World Series because there’s no tomorrow, but obviously it’s happened before.

9:54	Paul Swydan: I’d say 2 at the most.

9:55	Roger: If I were an Angels fan, I might go to a game or take my kid simply to see Pujols–he’s not what he once was, but he’s an all time great; might as well watch him play in person at least once.

9:55	Paul Swydan: OK, but once would probably be the upper bound of that reasoning. And the Angels need casual fans to come out at least 3-4 times a year. I don’t see it. Not unless it’s a Williams for DiMaggio and Berra type of deal.

9:56	Tim: Cargo, Braun, and Puig are likely trade candidates–what about the Sale, McCutchen, or other big names?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think the Pirates will probably just let McCutchen walk when his contract is up, but I’ve been wrong before.

9:56	Paul Swydan: I don’t see the White Sox trading Sale either.

9:56	Paul Swydan: And to be honest, I don’t see the Rockies trading CarGo. I think the Rockies once again are of the belief that they can make the playoffs next season.

9:57	Trent: Suppose the Diamondbacks get healthy years from Pollock and Peralta; and seasons from Miller and Greinke that are consistent with their career averages–how many games do they win next year?

9:57	Paul Swydan: 76. 78 if I’m feeling generous.

9:57	Paul Swydan: (I’m not feeling generous)

9:58	anon: what can heyward do to improve his offense next year… what didnt work this year

9:59	Paul Swydan: He hit too many pop ups. He had too much Soft contact. He was bad – for the first time – against fastballs, both four and two seam fastballs.

9:59	Paul Swydan: But he was also really bad against change-ups.