The Padres, Buzz, and Contention
Neither Matt Kemp nor Wil Myers have yet been officially traded. Yet it feels like those should happen any moment now, if not while I’m in the process of writing this post, and the end result will be that the Padres will have a pair of new corner outfielders. Kemp is older and Myers is younger, but both would be under team control for several years, and one of the ideas here is to generate some actual buzz about a Padres team that wants to win in 2015.
Subjectively, the Padres have long lacked meaningful buzz, even or especially locally. They’ve had nothing since Adrian Gonzalez was dealt away, and even Gonzalez was sort of a reluctant face of the franchise. Kemp is a celebrity, particularly in California. Myers, meanwhile, is a power bat with personality. People are talking about the Padres now, and everyone likes a team trying to win sooner. No one enjoys slogging through an extended period of irrelevance. But as much as the Padres are succeeding in building some hype, at the end of the day it still looks like there’s a lot missing.
You could say the Padres are kind of trying to be the National League’s White Sox. We know that, with the second wild card, teams are incentivized more than ever to try to be at least okay. With an active offseason, the White Sox have improved from also-ran to potential contender. People are excited! It’s exciting. The White Sox saw an opportunity to put pieces around Jose Abreu, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Adam Eaton. San Diego? San Diego doesn’t have an Abreu. It doesn’t have a Sale. And the players coming in don’t appear to be superstars, name value be damned.
I don’t need to go over the Matt Kemp trade, because Dave already did. I don’t think Kemp’s going to go the way of Vernon Wells, but ultimately he is an aging, defensively-limited power hitter who doesn’t walk very much. At the salary the Padres will pay Kemp, it’s not a dreadful deal, but then the Padres also are giving up players to get him. One of them, Yasmani Grandal, already had value as a big-leaguer. So San Diego subtracted from the roster to add to the roster.
Wil Myers is similar to Matt Kemp, in that he’s a power-hitting righty outfielder. The differences, of course, are that Myers is younger, and Myers is cheaper. Kemp, presumably, is only going to get worse. Myers might still be improving. The Padres need more players like Myers, position players with above-average ceilings. But then, remember the Padres aren’t getting Myers for free; a lot of talent is going in the other direction. Myers is the most big-league-ready piece, so it represents a slight shift toward prioritizing the present.
It feels like getting Myers is a huge splash. Seldom do you see a player traded so young after rating as so great a prospect. At the same time, there’s a little shine off the apple. Myers is coming off a bad year in which he was also hurt. He had a great rookie season, but it was also powered in part by an elevated BABIP. There’s no evidence to suggest that he’s a particularly good defensive corner outfielder. He appears to be roughly neutral on the bases. He makes a below-average rate of contact, and though he’s not a hacker, he hasn’t yet forced many walks. So much of Myers’ future is going to be about his power.
His power was his carrying tool in the minors. What Myers did in 2012 was obscene. He hasn’t been that kind of guy in two years. Myers hit pretty well in Triple-A Durham in 2013, but Durham is a far better hitting environment than Omaha, where Myers had better numbers the year before. And while Myers won the Rookie of the Year award, he had the same isolated power as Matt Joyce, and the same HR/FB as Howie Kendrick and Evan Longoria. What Myers has shown in the majors is pretty good power. What Myers hasn’t shown in the majors is great power, which is what he probably needs to be a real good player.
He’s so young, it would be stupid to write off Myers’ ceiling. The point is just that there are more question marks now. Back when Myers first got dealt to Tampa Bay, people wondered about his contact. Now it’s not clear how much power he’ll actually hit for. Relatedly: when Myers was at his best in the high minors, he was a big pull-power guy. He hasn’t since been so extreme. His percentile rankings within the league in terms of pulled fly ball rate:
2012, AA: 99th percentile
2012, AAA: 93rd
2013, AAA: 75th
2013, MLB: 73rd
2014, MLB: 74th
In the Royals’ system, Myers was just sitting on pitches to drive out to left. Maybe accidentally, maybe intentionally, Myers has been less of a pull hitter the last two years, and his power production has diminished. He’s strong enough to hit the ball out to all fields, but like most hitters he’s strongest to his pull side, and with fewer fly balls hit that way, there have been fewer dingers.
Maybe Myers needs to pull the ball to post great overall numbers. Maybe he’s still learning to spread his balls in play out. His power can’t be called great until it’s proven to be great in the bigs, and that’s the risk the Padres are taking.
So anyway, let’s be optimistic. Let’s assume that the Padres shortly officially trade for Kemp and Myers. At the present moment, the Padres rank 14th in NL projected WAR. They’re better only than the Phillies, by this measure. Let’s say Kemp and Myers both stay healthy and get 600 plate appearances. Let’s say they’re also worth three wins each. So, we’re calling them good players. If you adjust the depth charts just so, the Padres gain something like three wins. They move from 14th in WAR to 12th. They’re still well behind the Dodgers and then the Giants, not to mention other teams in other NL divisions.
And neither Kemp nor Myers actually project as three-win players. Now, maybe you think Carlos Quentin is just toast. Maybe you think the Padres adjust by putting Seth Smith at first base more often. It doesn’t really change anything about the resulting projection. Now, it’s worth noting that, with Kemp and Myers, the Padres would have some trade flexibility. Maybe they’d move Quentin. Maybe they’d move Smith, or Venable, or someone. But there wouldn’t be a lot coming back. Maybe the Padres would turn around and flip Myers, but that seems like a leap until we’re given reason to suspect it will happen.
It’s very hard to see the Padres as a good team. They don’t have any real stars, and while there are people who would consider Kemp a star, and Myers a blossoming star, the numbers think Kemp is overrated, and Myers’ ceiling is far from locked in. So as much as the Padres want to win in 2015, they don’t strike me as a playoff team, nor do they strike me as a team good enough to even consider itself a contender for five months. There’s value in hanging around the race and still not making the playoffs, but there aren’t that many realities in which the Padres are playing important baseball in September. At least not in 2015.
And then it’s not like Kemp will be better in 2016. I don’t have a huge problem with the Myers deal. He’s worth a shot. There’s a lot of potential surplus value there, and the Padres don’t have many hitters with his sort of power ceiling. And I don’t need to re-visit the Kemp trade criticisms. I know Kemp’s good for marketability. I also know the best thing for marketability is winning. Winning should drive all decisions, and I’m not convinced Kemp is a net benefit toward that end.
This makes me wonder about the Padres missing out on Yasmany Tomas. I don’t know how aggressively they might’ve bid, and maybe it would’ve been dumb of them to try to outbid the Diamondbacks. But Tomas, in a way, profiles like Myers. He even profiles a little like Kemp, and he’s young, and he costs only money, not talent. Kemp is costing the Padres money and talent. Myers is costing the Padres talent. I would’ve liked Tomas as a possible core piece, with other things trying to fall in place around him.
Alas, no Tomas. But, Kemp, and apparently Myers. No one is wrong to be excited about what the Padres are doing. It’s felt like they haven’t scored runs in forever, and it’s disheartening to go to a game at Petco half-expecting to see the home team shut out. The offseason is a jumping-off point for the summer, and fans will go into 2015 with a little more enthusiasm, and that’s a positive. If the Padres build on that and actually win games, all the better. It’s not like the Diamondbacks or Rockies are ready to go to the playoffs. But I don’t think the Padres are ready to go to the playoffs, either. For now, there’s tangible buzz. It doesn’t take too many losses for buzz to erode.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
The Padres have made one thing clear with these trades by selling on both Grandal and Rivera. The Padres think that teams that think that pitch framing is the new market inefficiency is the new market inefficiency.
I think looking retrospectively the Padres will be seen as wise for selling both Rene Rivera and Yasmani Grandal high.
Very high.
A.J. Preller’s been taking full advantage of the move from Texas to California
“These trades…are so tubular, man”
The thing is, Hanigan is one of the best pitch framers in baseball and top prospect, Hedges, is above-average.
They just got the best framer in the game not named Jose Molina. Ryan Hanigan is an elite pitch framer. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-ryan-hanigan-on-the-art-of-pitch-framing/?src=mobile
As a Padres fan, I can confirm that these moves are exciting. Even if they still finish in third, our “fandom perception” of the team has changed. It cannot be overstated exactly HOW PAINFUL last year’s “offense” was to watch. Final speculation should be reserved until the season starts – one thing I’m very happy about is they still haven’t dealt their primary starters Cashner or Tyson Ross, and I still think they could move Kennedy for another hitter.
Boy, if Preller can now turn Quentin, Venable and/or Maybin into anything or anyone (particularly a ss or 3b), that would truly be a miracle.
Although I actually think Solarte is a plus and I have a soft spot in my heart for the Little Ninja.
I like them both but they’re really utility guys at this point. I expect Solarte to get traded. The opening day starter SS isn’t in the system yet. Barmes and Amarista will be on the 25-man as the utility/defense guys.
Jeff,
I think you and Dave both are way to deep into the weeds on each of these trades. Then you purport that an unknown like Yasmany Tomas is somehow a wiser choice to build around? How many players can you name from the Padres 2010 season who nearly pushed the SF Giants to a one game play-off and finished second in the NL West that year. I wonder what you guys had projected for their team WAR that year. I guess that’s why they play the games right?’
When you say “its hard to see the Padres being a good team” – what qualifies as “good”? What is an example of a “good” team to you?
Going into 2015 with the addition of Matt Kemp and Wil Myers plus the 4th rated pitching staff in the MLB from 2014 including the 2nd best bullpen IN MLB has me excited although admittedly I am a Padres fan. I cannot even recount how many times the Padres lost by 2 or less runs in 2014 but I’m sure someone will look it up.
As I mentioned in a comment in Dave’s posts – this is Padres ownership showing its fan base emphatically that they want to put a winning team on the field. I think it would be foolish to expect the Padres to try to build their entire team in one offseason and thus far they’ve made some great strides without giving up on what their core competency is and that is a strong pitching staff.
It will be interesting to see where Preller and the front office go from here. I laughed out loud after reading “so we’re calling them good players”. Yea, the AL Rookie of the year and Matt Kemp are “good players”, let’s suppose that.
Seriously, Kemp only led the National League (or was it the Major Leagues) in slugging percentage the 2nd half last year.
Why is Matt Kemp considered such a slam dunk “good player”? You realize that in baseball, running the bases and playing the field is apart of the game too, right? Kemp needs to be extremely valuable at the plate to justify his awful defense, and subpar base running.
And no one is making fun of the Wil Myers trade. It’s a good risk to take for a cheap, young player who has upside. But there are holes in his game, and 2 teams have dealt him in the past few years, so there’s reason to critique it
My comment was poking fun at the realm of cynicism in which the fangraph contributors seem to operate within. I don’t think Matt Kemp is a good player, I know he’s a great one. Same thing goes with Wil Myers although he has more to prove. I’d challenge you Michael to give me some examples of players that don’t have holes in their game.
I’ll take awful (laugh) defense and “sub-par base running” for career .323 BA in Petco any day of the week.
Like I said in my original post, I’d love to see what the predictive analysis said about the 2010 Padres.
To boil it down – the Padres have gotten markedly better this offseason. They’ve improved their chances more this offseason than any other offseason in the last decade. You can slice any player in the MLB a million ways statistically and fangraphs often does. The predictative statistics/analysis and sportscenter sound bytes only get you so far.
Laughing at “awful defense” but lauding a career .323 batting average in Petco Park…
Wow!
“Statistics only get you so far, guys, so spare me. I know he’s great. How? Because of a batting average split.”
“I don’t think Matt Kemp is a good player, I know he’s a great one.”
Based on what evidence? If you think objective, quantitative evaluations of Kemp are off-base, offer reasons why they are. It’s not about finding players who don’t ‘have holes in their game’–this isn’t a subjective exercise. It’s about adding up the value a player contributes via different facets of their game, and that allows us to see that Kemp, while probably a decent player, is far from a great one.
“I’ll take awful (laugh) defense and “sub-par base running” for career .323 BA in Petco any day of the week.”
I’m curious about the ‘(laugh)’ here. Do you think Kemp is something other than an awful defender?
“Like I said in my original post, I’d love to see what the predictive analysis said about the 2010 Padres.”
I don’t think you understand what predictive analysis is.
I never understand the point of these lengthy “rebuttal” posts of other’s posts that really appear to be wrong on their face – and thus do not appear to be in need of rebuttal. Arguing that the original poster is an ass, or dumb, or ignorant, or not good at math, or etc., will almost certainly not result in her (or him!) posting a reply that, sheepishly, admits you are right and she (or he) is wrong (and an idiot/etc.). So…is it to boost one’s ego by attacking an easy target or because the poster really believes something will be accomplished by battling trolls with more-than-apparent arguments?
He’s trying to get those up arrows
Where did I call the original poster an idiot? I guess my last line could’ve come off as snarky, but I think it’s much easier to dismiss someone’s opinion as stupid without engaging with it, and much harder to try to undertake a debate.
While the post might appear wrong on its face to you or me, it’s not as if the original poster’s opinion is a minority one–look at the comments section for any ESPN thread about Kemp. I don’t think it’s at all clear that the argument is so prima facie ridiculous so as not to deserve rebuttal.
Maybe via discussing it both of us will learn something. But hey, maybe it’s just about green arrows on a semi-anonymous internet site . . .
The green arrows make you feel good about yourself Joshua
Joffrey: I mean, I’ve been known to occasionally rub one out to a green arrow, but who doesn’t?
“I wonder what you guys had projected for their team WAR that year.”
What is so hard to understand about projections NOT being a personal decision by these writers? They are systems – often constructed years before the time period in which you’re accusing them of being biased against your team – which are proven to be better at guessing how well teams will do than Padres’ fans spitballing about their favorite team. They’ve even be shown to do better than impartial individuals making guesses.
And in your entire 5 paragraph comment you don’t once give any evidence for why Sullivan might be wrong. And he might be. But throwing a tantrum and saying…”but they ARE good” isn’t going to convince anyone of anything. It doesn’t prove your case. It just makes you sound like a homer, who is hurt that other people aren’t as irrationally stoked about the state of the Padres as you are.
That was a tantrum? You must be new to the internet.
I brought up several points within my commentary that I’m looking for clarification on.
Where did I say the projections were a personal decision? I think both Dave and Jeff are taking myopic approaches to their evaluations of the trades and their commentary on the coming year projections for the success of the Padres.
Are you saying Matt Kemp and Wil Myers are not good players? Just so we’re clear.
If the best defense of your argument, and only response to my comment is “it wasn’t a tantrum”…you’ve further proven you’re not interested in reasoned debate. You just want feel things into your keyboard.
Jeff hates the Padres! He has hated the Padres in previous lives, even before the San Diego Padres existed. As punishment, he was born Jeff Sullivan, Mariners fan, instead of Grant Brisbee, Giants’ fan, winner of three of the last five World Series.
Just to be clear, you have evaluated last year’s pitching staff by raw, unadjusted ERA?
They were also 23rd in WAR. They project 27th in WAR.
You’re right, Preller isn’t finished. More to be done. You’re also right, there’s a reason they play the baseball games. We all just want the baseball games. Until the games start happening, I can’t very well expect to be paid for not doing anything but throwing up my hands.
I am happy that people care about the Padres again, at least for now. It’s good for everybody.
It’s the 2nd time in a few days that I’ve read in a comment something like “the Padres were the 4th best pitching staff in baseball last year” and wondered “where in the hell did they get that.” So, I decided to try to figure it out myself (since it wasn’t explained in the comment.)
Last year the Padres had the 4th lowest ERa in baseball. Of course, as anyone who reads fangraphs knows, ERA isn’t adjusted for either defense or home ballpark. By WAR, which is adjusted for both, the Padres’ pitching staff was 23rd in baseball last year.
Do the Padres have the 23rd best pitching staff in the game? I don’t know, but I do know that I trust numbers that incorporate defense and ballpark more than numbers that don’t. To that end, I would speculate that the Padres pitching staff is closer to 23rd best in the big leagues than it is to 4th best. In fact, according to Steamer, only 2 pitching staffs project to have fewer WAR than the Padres do next year.
Therefore, I’ll go out on a limb and say that there are more than 3 pitching staffs better than the Padres in 2015.
My one gripe with this is that when someone is isolating offense vs. pitching it’s fair, to me, to include defense with the pitching and just talk about run prevention. Unadjusted for park & unearned runs, the Padres pitchers did technically allow the fourth-fewest runs per nine innings last year.
Do you honestly believe, if you put all 30 teams in Petco Park for the year, that the Padres would still have allowed the 4th-fewest runs in the majors?
Defense matters. Park factors matter. You can argue that they don’t all you want, but as long as you’re willing to do that, you have to be willing to be equally critical when Kemp and Myers don’t hit as many homers as you think they’ll hit.
You can’t say it doesn’t matter for your pitchers but later on say it does matter when people are critical of your hitters.
This is an interesting point that often gets lost in these sorts of discussions. Yes, SD may not have had the 4th best pitching staff in the majors last year, and they may project to have one of the lowest pitching WAR for next season. But they do, after all, play 81 games at Petco, so the fact that they prevented runs last year, due in part to their home park, can be presumed to continue in 2015. Let’s not worry too much about which pitching staff would pitch better than the Padres’ staff will, while throwing at Petco. The fact is that only one team does play its home games at Petco, and therefore the Padres will likely limit opposing teams’ scoring next season. San Diego is right to worry more about its offense than its defense or pitching, just as the Yankees try to get left-handed power while the Red Sox pursue right handed power. They know their strengths, and so do the Padres.
I think these numbers are important and, in my mind at least, help me understand the aggressive move for bats. I don’t think the Padres staff was great, as the ER numbers might suggest, nor do I think the staff was very poor, as Jeff seems to imply.
You’re talking about a staff only modestly better than a group of replacement players – not even average Major Leaguers – replacement level. And yet, that staff allowed the third fewest ER in the league last year and, by far, the fewest at home games. So with even with an ML average offense, this is a team that can compete for a wild card. It doesn’t make them a great team, but there is long-term value in being a contender and I think that’s where they’re going.
I don’t love the Myers deal, personally, but I do understand it. I think a lot of that starts with the very disparate pitching metrics you both cite. I do think there’s a tendency to get too hung up on WAR in a vacuum, which is only slightly less silly than trotting out ERA without any context.
This entire discussion is rendered moot by the FIP adjustment for park factors.
See how bad stats can throw everyone off?
The Padres staff was actually decent to good last year and bad stats had you thinking they were not so great.
I think somebody’s deep into the weed on these trades and it ain’t Dave
hint it’s the Padres
also me. *Jeff
I agree with this. The Padres are not going to be able to buy bats in free agency with their spacious dimensions. If Kemp and Myers can provide an extra run or two every game or so, it could make a big difference with that park and that pitching staff.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres improve a lot if the main keys stay healthy.
Kemp and Myers most definitely ain’t gonna provide an extra run or two every game. If they did they would both be better than Mike Trout.
You seem to be putting a lot of weight into the Steamer projections – can you publish their team projections from previous years to see how accurate they are?
Information doesn’t go back nearly far enough to have a decent sample. It’s not like we’ve had this for 20 years. If you don’t like certain projections, feel free to offer why that might be. Ultimately, all anyone’s doing is trying to project. Steamer just makes it easy.
How about 4 years? 😉
http://www.mrcheatsheet.com/2013/02/analyzing-accuracy-of-2012-projections.html
Not the same thing, but it was Googleable.
Jeff, I was wondering mainly about the team projections – just from the last few seasons would be good. Their website has them but not in any kind of depth chart form (like this for instance: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings). If would be nice to look over the previous year’s projections.
I don’t have that anywhere handy. I don’t know if anyone does. Here’s last year, kind of:
http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=&lg=&date=2014-03-22
But that’s only one year, and that’s actually a blend of both ZiPS and Steamer, which is what we’ll eventually feature here once we have full ZiPS information.
The projection systems are good. If they weren’t, we wouldn’t use them. A lot of things are also unknowable. Certain trades, certain injuries, maybe a breakout or a collapse. The error bars are big enough that the season remains wildly interesting, and no one wants it any other way. But if the projections are indicating something before the year, one needs to have a real good reason to dismiss them. Every baseball team uses projections and all projections follow similar models, whether they be private projections or public projections. They’re not trying to deceive you. They provide a good idea of the real odds. The neat part is that odds aren’t outcomes. Each season is only played once.
That’s what I was looking for, I couldn’t figure out how to go back in dates. It would be nice if you saved the pre-season projections (like the ones that are up now) just so we can go back and look where they missed.
Thanks for this Jeff – I was asking for that on another post.
If anything, I think noting how the projection systems have done in the past could be good for people who are skeptical of them. If it’s close (discounting things like injuries and playing time), then it gives me confidence that it’s a good way to look at teams in the off season.
I’ve read that the Padres were pretty damn aggressive with Tomas, but that part of the problem with him and with Sandoval was that FAs see SD as a place where offense dies and, in turn, their future value. If Kemp and/or Myers put up reasonably strong numbers in the next couple of seasons and the Padres compete, they may be better able to lure top tier FAs without giving away prospects. In that regard, Kemp could have a lot of long term value with only 2-3 decent seasons and Myers seems worth the gamble.
I like the moves they’re making. It’s an entirely new philosophy and involves building value in the franchise for future deals as well as these alone. That’s important, especially for a franchise like SD that has never really shown any long-term commitment beyond flipping prospects or young stars for others…and repeat.
“one of the ideas here is to generate some actual buzz about a Padres team that wants to win in 2015.”
How does acquiring 2 outfielders who will both be under team control for the next 5 years indicate a win now approach? To me it looks more like the Padres’ FO understands the challenge they face in completely overhauling a lineup that generated the worst offense in baseball last year (in park adjusted terms as well) and are targeting players who can help them win not only next year but for the rest of the decade. No doubt they still have more pieces they need to acquire but you have to start somewhere, right?
Whether these are good moves or not is certainly debatable. I just don’t understand the insistance on seeing them as designed primarily for marketing or short term gains when it’s just as logical to see them as actual baseball moves targeting 2016 and beyond instead.
Didn’t say win now. But they do want to win in 2015. They’re trying to move up the window.
The Kemp trade is absolutely about winning in 2015. There’s no way to reasonably see it otherwise.
The Myers trade is about the next 5 years and, as such, is a much better deal for the Padres.
But let’s be honest here…trading for Kemp was not a trade that indicates the front office is concerned about the long – term since Kemp will probably never again be better than he will be in 2015.
Kemp is one of the best right handed hitters in baseball and is only 30. On any kind of a normal decline path he is going to continue to be an above average hitter beyond 2015.
“In the Royals’ system, Myers was just sitting on pitches to drive out to left.”
Not a bad strategy in Petco.
You guys are all missing out on 1 HUGE part of the San Diego Padres. They’re pitching! Are you kidding me!? The padres pitching staff ranks among the tops in the MLB. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at some numbers. With a team era of 3.27 in 2014, which ranks them at number 4 in all of baseball. This was with Andrew Cashner missing the majority of the year. It will only improve if he stays healthy. I understand how painfully poor their hitting was, I’m not going to sugar coat it. It was absolutely pathetic. But with the Kemp and Myers trades, the padres offense will improve. Now I’m not saying they will be magically a good hitting team after these trades, but they may become an average offensive team assuming kemp and Myers stay healthy. And in reality, that’s really all the Padres need, is to be average at hitting with such a great pitching staff. And as far as Grandal goes, he has no potential unless the league allows him to use steroids again. Look at his numbers since he tested positive for PED’s…they’re awful. Just watch, he will never be a force in this league. So to me, they really didn’t lose much talent at all in the Kemp deal. I would not call the padres a contender after all of these moves, but making the playoffs is definitely something that is within reach.
I don’t think there moves are as great as they’re fans seem to think they are.
ERA? Seriously? And unadjusted for home ballpark?
Sorry. Not convincing.
Ur so fucking dumb
As a Padres fan, please stop. This is painful.
You didn’t have me convinced before, but you sure do now!
Padres pitchers at home: 2.56 ERA
Padres pitchers away: 4.04 ERA
All MLB pitchers at home: 3.61 ERA
All MLB pitchers away: 3.88 ERA
Care to give us some nonadjusted offensive numbers?
Isn’t there a positive effect on other players in the lineup when you have two new dangerous hitters in the heart of the order, especially in this new low run-scoring environment?
Is taking into account only additional WAR from Myers and Kemp fair when the other players should also get a slight bump?
Nope. They won’t.
This myth has been debunked countless times.
If I were the Padres I’d seriously consider putting Kemp at 1st. They have the outfield surplus and it would be better for their outfield defense as well as Kemp’s health.
I’d love to be a fly on the wall when that conversation happens.
Jeff,
This is a deal that is good PR for a team that is treading water, the ownership who purchased this team for 800 million dollars, who signed a great RSN, and has a debt to pay off, this is simple putting people in the seats.
Last year this team drew 2.2 Million fans, they received from MLB almost 118 Million dollars in TV revenue and MLBAM , BELP and licensing monies. They paid out in salaries 92 Million dollars, even after absorbing Kemp and Myers and Hannigan, the team may hit 80 milion dollars for next year. If they draw 2.5 Million because of Kemp and Myers, that is an addtional 75 Million dollars.
Padres will make about 100 Million dollars in operational income, after all expenses except debt financing for purchase of the team, plus they own a percentage of the Sports Network in 8 years they should be able to pay off the debt of purchase, damn smart marketing by ownership.
This is a interesting perspective. Curious how you calculated that +300k fans = $75 million in revenue (or profit)? Interested in how to apply that approach to the other teams.
I think he was just saying that 2.5 million fans will lead to $75 million in additional revenue. So maybe an extra ten million or so beyond what they made last year.
That’s where my mind went, too. That translates to an additional $250 per fan, which seems like a lot of money to me, even when you factor in all costs.
Plus, there is a wealth of data that say that acquiring star talent has a very short-term benefit. People buy more tickets, jerseys, etc in the first couple of months of the first season, but if the star talent doesn’t translate to wins (which in this case it could), fans lose that interest quickly.
Frankly, I have a tough time believing this analysis. Preller is too new to the job to be trying to work a PR campaign. He supposedly signed a 5-year deal as the GM, so he should be operating as though that’s his window, and should be looking to build a competitor over that period of time, not just sell some tickets early on in his first full season at the reins. If that’s indeed the best explanation of these deals, I’m prepared to say that Preller is out of his depth and doesn’t deserve this job. But I don’t believe he is, so I don’t think that explains it.
I think that the truth of these trades is, quite simply, that Preller saw positive transactions. He saw upside in Kemp, downside in Grandal, and value to be had by making that deal. He didn’t think that Kemp, at $15M AAV, would be too expensive, and that Grandal was going to materialize. As for Myers, he found a trade where he was happy with to sell the prospects he had to in order to get a guy with upside. Maybe he’s wrong on his guesses here, but it seems perfectly reasonable that Preller saw an opportunity to make two trades that benefit this team in the short-term, without compromising the long term, and went for it.
This article and all the comments is all about Myers and Kemp, and the impact on the Padres. And that’s fine for what it is worth.
The thing that is missing from our discussion is all the other players (with the exception of the quite insightful catcher comments). Some of these minor leaguers are potentially quite valuable. The Pads gave up a potential upper division team middle infielder in Trea Turner for example, and Burch Smith is not chopped meat.
That’s true, Burch is more akin to Bologna …