The Precedent for a Manny Machado Trade
Sometime soon, the Orioles are going to trade their best player. Sometime soon, the Orioles are going to trade one of the best players, period. I’ve seen people worrying that the Orioles might just hang onto Manny Machado through the end of the year, and I understand that, historically, trading with the Orioles has always been complicated, but that would be a bridge too far. There’s just about no way the Orioles would settle for free-agent compensation, here. There’s a blockbuster trade to be made, and there are interesting prospects to be acquired.
So, a Machado trade is virtually inevitable. There is no shortage of suitors. Two factors make this situation unusual. One, Machado is very good. Many good players are traded around the deadline, but few are at Machado’s level. Two, Machado will become a free agent in a matter of months. He’s a rental. Some suitor might think they could win Machado over down the stretch, but that’s unlikely to lead to much of a bargain. Machado’s not signing a contract extension before he hits the market. This should be interpreted first and foremost as a short-term move.
It can be hard to know what would be an appropriate price. How much should someone be willing to give up for Machado? For how much should the Orioles be willing to settle? To this point, the Orioles have asked for more than anyone’s been willing to surrender. That much is self-evident, since Machado is available but there hasn’t yet been an agreement. I think it’s useful to dig into the history. Every trade negotiation is different, conducted under unique circumstances, but there’s value in understanding the precedent. Trades don’t follow precedent in the way that, say, arbitration does, but we can get an idea of what’s going to happen by looking at what has happened. Time to consider a whole bunch of names.
Over the course of the past decade, there’s been a total of 13 midseason trades involving 5+ WAR players. I consider Machado to be at that level. Nine of those trades have been for rentals. For guys who were going to become free agents. This is the sample I started with, but then I realized even a decade might be too much time, since so much about player and roster evaluation has changed. How relevant to Machado is the 2008 Mark Teixeira trade, or the 2009 Matt Holliday trade? Teams evaluate their positions and resources in more analytical ways. Teams generally aren’t so, I don’t know, emotional about the power of midseason upgrades.
So I narrowed to the past few years, still looking at rentals, and I made a few 5-WAR exceptions. As far as I can tell, there are five decent and recent trade comps. There’s the 2015 trade of Johnny Cueto. There’s the 2015 trade of David Price. There’s the 2015 trade of Yoenis Cespedes. There’s the 2017 trade of J.D. Martinez. And there’s the 2017 trade of Yu Darvish. None of these are perfect, and we shouldn’t expect them to be. Nevertheless, let’s look at some quick summaries.
Cueto trade, 2015
Cueto was traded for pitcher Brandon Finnegan, pitcher Cody Reed, and pitcher John Lamb. Finnegan had major-league experience, and he had entered the year as the Baseball America No. 55 prospect. Entering the following year, Reed was ranked as the No. 34 prospect. He was dealt from Double-A, while Lamb was dealt from Triple-A.
Price trade, 2015
Price was traded for pitcher Daniel Norris, pitcher Matthew Boyd, and pitcher Jairo Labourt. Norris had major-league experience, and he had entered the year as the No. 18 prospect. Boyd also had major-league experience. Labourt was dealt from High-A.
Cespedes trade, 2015
Cespedes was traded for pitcher Michael Fulmer and pitcher Luis Cessa. Fulmer was dealt from Double-A, and entering the following year, he was ranked as the No. 47 prospect. Cessa was dealt from Triple-A.
Martinez trade, 2017
Martinez was traded for infielder Dawel Lugo, infielder Sergio Alcantara, and infielder Jose King. Lugo was dealt from Double-A. Alcantara was dealt from High-A. King was dealt from rookie ball.
Darvish trade, 2017
Darvish was traded for outfielder(?) Willie Calhoun, pitcher A.J. Alexy, and infielder Brendon Davis. Calhoun had entered the year as the No. 92 prospect, and the following year he ranked as the No. 36 prospect. He was dealt from Triple-A. Alexy was dealt from Single-A, and so was Davis.
The Martinez trade is an easy one to recall, and even at the time the return package was regarded as light, but it’s important to understand that Machado is better than Martinez was. It’s no less important to understand that rentals don’t go for prospect premiums, but while Martinez has been an elite hitter, Machado is far more useful in the field. I don’t see Machado getting traded for a package that doesn’t include a ranked prospect.
And there’s something else about Darvish, Cueto, and Price — they’re pitchers. I think pitchers tend to get a little more around deadline time, because the thing about really good pitchers in the playoffs is you can use them more often than you can during the regular season. This is also why great relievers get moved around. The playoffs have more off days between games, and no one uses a five-man playoff rotation. Position players don’t quite get the same bump. They get to play 100% of the time, instead of, say, 90-95% of the time, but compared to the pitcher bump, that’s negligible. An ace starting pitcher might make as many as three starts in a seven-game series.
I’m not saying you should throw those four trades out. They all help to illustrate the same point. But I keep getting drawn to the Cespedes move. Now, again, Machado is probably a little better than Cespedes was. Cespedes really took off after the trade to the Mets. But Cespedes was seen as a lineup-changing hitter, who could play great defense in one position, and who could play worse defense in a more challenging position. Cespedes was a strong left fielder with lousy numbers in center. Machado is a strong third baseman with lousy numbers at short.
Cespedes was dealt for a couple of advanced pitching prospects. Fulmer, of course, has worked out well, and he was easily the more valuable pitcher of the two. When Kiley ran a midseason prospect update in August of 2015, Fulmer was given a Future Value rating of 50. That would put him around where, say, Ian Anderson and Shane Bieber are now. Cessa wasn’t nothing, and he made sense as a second piece, but the perception was that he had a lot less upside. Could make it to the majors, but he probably wouldn’t become an impact piece.
It’s been my gut feeling for a while that, ultimately, Machado will get traded for a package of arms. From the Orioles’ side, they’re in need of…pretty much everything, and it could be easy for them to sell. Trade Machado for pitchers, and maybe one or two of them are in the majors as early as September. From the other side, it could also be easy to sell, because Machado is an elite player, and pitching prospects are far less reliable than hitting prospects. Study after study has shown that pitching prospects turn into lesser-value players on average, in large part because of the injury risk. Young pitchers are valuable players to have, but you can trade them and emphasize the downside. You can get them and emphasize the upside. Trading for a good young position player is so much more difficult to do, unless the guy comes with question marks like Willie Calhoun.
The Cespedes trade works as a precedent. The others here do, too, but I think the Cespedes trade is the closest comp. Because Machado is probably better than Cespedes was, that’s something to factor in. For example, Machado will probably get three players, instead of two. The second piece could be a little better than Cessa. And the primary piece could be a little better than Fulmer. But this is where my expectations are going to go. Maybe a trade is headlined by Corbin Burnes. Maybe a trade is headlined by Justus Sheffield, or Kyle Wright. It’s on the teams to put the actual players together, in order to find an agreement. But no one needs to be attempting this blind. We’ve seen great rentals moved before, and it stands to reason this trade should look like those ones did.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Gleyber for Chapman a relevant comp?
No…
Fangraphs Law #4,712: The Chapman trade is not a relevant comp for anything.
Until the year 2085 when the Mariners make a late season push to end their 108 year World Series drought
Chapman won’t be available in 2085.
Even then, the relevant comp will be Heathcliff Slocumb for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.
Ah yes, what pleasant memories I have of Dan Duquette’s spectacular swindle.
reds might want that one back…
The Cueto one? Three DL pitchers?
Apparently, the Orioles have said that Machado won’t be traded before the all-star game. Going to a National League team would create all kinds of problems.
What do they care about the All Star Game problems?
Would you put the odds of the Orioles hanging onto Machado at near 0% then? Personally I’m not so convinced. I wouldn’t go lower than 10%, and that seems low, since like you say, it’s the Orioles.
Do we have a salary for Cespedes? That would impact the return, no?
I don’t think that a contender paying less than half of a year’s salary for a rental is going to care too terribly much about salary. And if they do, they can just ship a bad contract back in the deal to offset things.
Machado is at $16 million, full season. Cespedes was at $10.5 million, full season. Less than half of that left and teams have a little more money now than they did in 2015. It’s not a *non-factor* but it ought to be small.
Salary becomes a factor when it makes you go over the luxury tax. Not just because of the 100% extra cost but also because of the multi year reset.
Os should eat some if it becomes a problem
For the Yankees, this is not a problem as they are about ~$21 M under the tax threshold. They could add in Neil Walker too if they want to offset more money for a SP push.
I could see something like
Brewers: Burnes (55 FV), Diplan (45 FV), and Phillips (45 FV)
Yankees: Sheffield (55 FV), Adams (45 FV) and McKinney (40 FV)
Dodgers: Verdugo (50 FV), White (45 FV), Santana (45)
Ultimately if we say at the time Fulmer was a 55/50 FV and Cessa was a 45/40 I bet we’ll see three pieces with a headliner (55/50 FV) and two secondary approx (45 FV) pieces.
Even though I’d argue that the Orioles should target a bat as the centerpiece, I would think they’ll target an arm and get a post-shine 45 FV bat as a secondary piece (McKinney/Phillips).
Those FV grades are based on the BOARD, as currently stands.
Considering Angelos disdain for the Yankees, Cashman may have to add another piece to make it a bit more “enticing”. Say Michael King?
On another note, the Orioles acquiring a high fly ball / HR % pitcher in Chance Adams seems to fit their pitcher mold of recent years (Tilman, Cashner, Wright)
Latest word from MLBTR says that the O’s are asking the Yankees for Justus Sheffield, Cleveland for Triston McKenzie or Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee. But they also report that there’s been no traction on any of them at all, especially since pretty much all of those guys could contribute this or next year. So you’re right in the ask, but it’s not going anywhere.
Latest rumor had the Dodgers building it around Dustin May and Gavin Lux, and the Brewers around Luis Ortiz and Brett Phillips (saw today Orlando Arcia and Keon Broxton too, which would be…interesting). That’s not very exciting, but I think there’s a chance it ends in that range.
The Yankees have a ton of right handed pitching prospects. Sheffield is their lone LHP of note, and their best overall pitching prospect. I doubt they trade him. Adams/Abreu/Tate are more likely.
The Yankees want to keep Sheffield, and can still make a knockout offer without him — for example, Frazier, Andujar, and Adams.
I think Andujar is expected to go for a pitcher if they went for Machado
Smith is better than the preseason grade – he is slashing .296/.391/.614, the swing changes took, and his year to year ISO improvements are pretty dramatic.
pardon?
The Brewers are likely the most willing to pay the most, given their needs (position & middling offense). Why is he being linked to the Yankees (Andujar & that former Dbacks SS)?
Probably because the Yankees made an offer.
And, I guess, also because the Yankees have the financial muscles to try and convince him to sign an extension before he hits the open market
Has anyone who was months away from possibly setting a new industry standard ever signed an extension? Is there any history of anything remotely similar to this happening?
Giancarlo Stanton kind of.
Yeah, kind of, but he was two years away and did have a history of injuries. The fact that Stanton is probably the closest comparison sort of proves my point.
The Yankees have interest in signing him in the offseason, the Yankees are looking to upgrade in any way that they can, and the Yankees have valuable assets that are just sitting there unused (Clint Frazier) that they need to get rid of?
Also they’ve already made a “strong offer.” If I had to guess it’s centered around Frazier and possibly Andujar.
The Teixiera trade ended up better than any Angels fan could have hoped for. Tex hits .360 down the stretch (though they still lose in the first round to Red Sox). The players traded, headlined by Casey Kotchman, didn’t do anything special. And back then they could still reap a draft pick for a free agent who had been there for two months. The draft pick? Mike Trout.
They would have taken trout anyway, took grichuk first for other reasons. But grich wasn’t a bad comp pick either.
I actually haven’t head that before. What were their reasons for taking Grichuk over Trout?
To mess with the scout that insisted Trout was Mickie Mantle. That’s the story, anyway.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-teams-missed-boat-on-mike-trout-in-draft/c-222750644
This quote:
“”If there had been even one great prospect to come out of New Jersey in a while, it would probably have been different,” Royals assistant general manager J.J. Picollo said. “But there really hadn’t been. One thing we look for as scouts, like it or not, are patterns. I can assure you that after Mike Trout, there won’t be another New Jersey prospect who gets missed like that.””
If ever we thought teams had become so rational and scientifically inclined to never succumb to illogical reasoning, sheesh … If you are looking for patterns and the formulation for one pattern is “which state is he from and how have other players from that state performed?” your methodology is so screwy you might as well resort to picking the guy with “the good face.”
Sometimes it feels like the big analytics push was an industry lurching from tic-tac-toe to the dizzying complexity of checkers.
I could see some extreme cases where state could be a factor. The kid from Florida gets to play a lot more baseball than the kid from Winnipeg, let’s say, and may be more advanced out of high school just because of extra reps. Even then it’d only be a tiebreaker kind of thing between two very similar players, though, and Jersey hardly fits the bill.
Yeah, I’ve heard the same thing. The Angels were pretty set on selecting Mike Trout regardless, but the comp pick allowed them to take him to spots later while also snagging Grichuk. Don’t know if it is just revisionist history or not. But the story has been out there for a while.
I can’t quite see Cleveland going for Machado. Not today.
Their primary needs are in the bullpen and OF.
Any deal with the O’s is more likely to be for Adam Jones, a reliever, or both.
I think the headline should be a strong 50 or a weak 55. They won’t get a top15 prospect but if it is a crap package like the JDM trade (45 and two non prospects) I could see angelos just taking the comp pick. That would still be a bad decision but a 45 and a 40 don’t help the Orioles rebuild much either and angelos tends to make emotional, non rational decisions (gets involved too much…)
(1) Never really understood the Verdugo thing. The scouts here give him solid grades across the board for PV/FV, but his performance at AA and above has been… underwhelming? Maybe someone can fill me in on what the appeal is, outside of being cost-controlled (which I’m not trying to downplay). Is this a potential star? A well above average regular? A solid regular?
(2) Given the Dodgers’ bizarre ability to turn OF4/utility bats into above average regulars, could it be argued that they’re in a unique ability to be a bit more… open-minded about trading their young players?
(2) is an interesting point.
I think Verdugo OPS. is over .900 in (AAA)…and Kemp is already gaining the weight back so….
The same Verdugo who’s running a 139 wRC+ in AAA at age 22?
I could see Dillon Tate being thrown in as part of it.
I think this is what gets it done:
Brewers give up:
Freddy Peralta
Domingo Santana
I don’t think the Orioles can turn down this upside.
Peralta is looking like he’s potentially part of Milwaukee’s playoff rotation. I highly doubt they would trade him
He’s definitely part of their rotation plan down the stretch but I’d bet he’ll either be capped or gassed (or both) by the time the playoffs start.
Brewers can’t part with Peralta, no way.
If you don’t already know by now somehow, Jeff: your subheads are the best in the business.
I am kinda shocked the Phillies have not made an offer. Seems like they are the contender with the worst 3b and SSs. At least this season anyway.
They were my guess to get him about a month ago. They also have enough prospect muscle to take the hit, and even more so if we’re only looking at 50 FV guys.
One thing about the Cespedes trade – the Mets only made it after the Padres turned down an Upton for Fulmer deal, which means that it was probably less about Cespedes in particular and more about a middle of the order bat.
Don’t forget the Mets had worked out a deal for Carlos Gomez that also fell through.
You’re right that it was about an overall need, moreso than the individual. Sandy Alderson clearly didn’t value hitters of Cespedes’ profile, but he bought nonetheless and it almost won the Mets a WS.
Overpaying for a rental is the opposite of smart baseball.
HOT TAKE! We can all continue to pretend like the Aroldis Chapman deal didn’t happen because it doesn’t fit into the mold that we want it to, but it did, and I’m sure the Cubs are ecstatic with how it worked out.
Winning a World Series is always smart baseball.
If your point is that good results can make dumb decisions look smart, I would counter by saying those good results actually make people who preordain the decision as dumb look dumb.
As much as we want to apply statistics to make hard-and-fast rules to apply to real life, it just isn’t that simple. I don’t think the trades for Cespedes or Miller or Darvish are dumb just because they didn’t net a WS win for their respective teams. Those teams took calculated risks and they almost paid off.
Now if a team (like the Braves) over-estimates their ability to contend based on the addition of one individual and mortgages their future in order to do so, I think that’s dumb. And if it ended up that adding Machado won the Braves the WS, I’d be dumb. At least I’m stating my opinion upfront independent of any knowledge of the result.
Ask a Royals fan whether they’d rather have Manaea/Lamb/Finnegan/etc or the 2015 title. Flags Fly Forever and all that.
I really hope the Braves don’t do something crazy like trade Ian Anderson or Kyle Wright for a rental.
I don’t think the Braves will, because they need far more help to elevate themselves into the stratosphere of the elite teams. If you’re buying Machado, it’s because you see him as the missing link that will propel your team to the WS.
The idea that there is some magical level that a team must get to in order to get to the world series is not supported by history or common sense. For any team, Machado is a piece that will make them a lot better, and if they are already a playoff contender he will improve their odds of making it to the world series, but luck plays such a huge role in the playoffs. The Braves are at a point on the win curve where adding Machado would be huge. So are a lot of other teams.
I made no illusion to magic (killed that pun though).
Teams aren’t buying rentals, especially at this cost, just to get themselves into the playoffs any more. I don’t think anyone, including the Braves, think that they’re just one piece away from contending for the WS this year. As currently constituted, they need to be more concerned with run prevention than they do with adding offense, and I just don’t see them selling off long-term pitching prospects to try and make a run at it this year.
I don’t know the mindset of that front office, but I’d think that they’re content with how the team has performed this year (perhaps “a year early”), and would be surprised to see them make a reactionary move that mortgages what’s looking like a bright future.
The Braves are already contending of the World Series, and Machodo would be a huge boost to that. So are all of the other teams that are well above .500 (with the possible exception of the A’s due to circumstances). Also, there is no set amount of offense or pitching that means you need to add to the other. Moving Camargo to a super-utility role and inserting Machado at third would be huge for the Braves and increase their chances of winning the world series. And yes, they shouldn’t mortgage the future, but again that is true for every team except for the huge spenders. But we have no idea what the cost will actually be. The Braves made an offer for Machado, which sort of belies your notion that they don’t think they should go for it. I hope the offer was modest and reflects the fact that Machado is a rental and there will be plenty of other good opportunities to improve the team, even if they are not headline grabbing. Again, it makes no sense to just not try your best because you weren’t expected to be as good as you are and you have a lot of good young players. The future is not guaranteed. The Braves are in first place and have played good baseball. You’ve offered no legitimate reason they should not want to add Machado.
Valid points, but I never said they shouldn’t pursue him or that they shouldn’t want to add him. I said I don’t think that they will offer what they’d need to in order to actually acquire him (meaning I wouldn’t, I don’t have any insider info), and I think that they have other, greater needs.
The Braves are in first, yes. They’ve played good, very clutch baseball, yes. But I don’t think that their offense, even with Machado, would be so overwhelming that it would outweigh their starting pitching deficiencies (nor do they have the depth in their bullpen to do so).
I understand the notion that WAR = WINS and WINS are all that matter regardless of position, but I think that’s a bit of a close-minded way to look at how to build a team. There is a very practical, real-life need to build a balanced roster if you want to win in the playoffs.
Just ask the Indians of the late 90s. Offense can only get you so far (funny that John Hart built that team too?)
There’s also a significant value increase for the elite teams that I think goes often overlooked, being that not only are you adding this player, but you’re also preventing him from going to one of your contending peers. I don’t think even the Braves see themselves as peers with the likes of the Astros, Yankees, Braves or Indians (yet).
Maybe they’re moving up the latter in the NL, but I’d still expect runs out of the Nats, Cubs and Dodgers which will distance them and the outcome will be closer to what we anticipated coming into the season.
Adding Machado is huge this year, but it’s a waste of prospects if they dont win it all.
I would assume the increased world series odds this year aren’t wortg the decreased playoff odds in future years.
Any team that adds Machado is “wasting prospects” if they don’t win it all. What you are saying is just a simple fact of trades.
Totally agree. I love that the Braves are doing great so far this year….but losing 6 of the past 7 games tells me that they need a lot more than one player to get to the playoffs. Offense hasn’t been a problem. The rotation has Folty who has been great, Sanchez who is pitching above his peripherals, Julio who is up and down, Newcomb who walks too many, injured McCarthy and an injured Soroka. Maybe Gohara comes out of the break and locks down one of the rotation spots. That still leaves Folty plus a lot of question marks. The bullpen….blech. They haven’t been awful but they really don’t have a lock it down closer/high leverage reliever. Minter is getting there and Winkler has been great. Vizzy has looked good since coming off of the DL. Sam Freeman and the rotating arms have been really, really bad. The bench catcher and Culberson have been solid off of the bench. Flaherty and Santana need upgraded to someone who can actually hit.
For the Braves to become an elite team, in my opinion, they need one top end starter, 1 elite reliever, 1 good reliever and at least 1 upgrade for the bench. Without those pitching upgrades getting Machado is pointless.
You can’t use ONE BAD WEEK as a reason why they need more than one player to get to the playoffs. Heck, the Dodgers barely won any games for the entire month of August last year, and had a dreadful April this year, but we all know that they are highly likely to make the playoffs this year (and of course, made it last year despite their horrific August).
You just described what EVERY elite team needs more of lol
Every team needs more of everything? Sure, I guess (the gluttonous bastards). But there are obviously varying degrees.
The Yankees and Red Sox have one top end SP each, The Astros and Indians have 3-4 each. Do the Astros and Indians need another? Wouldn’t that be nice? Of course, but the level of need is so different.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball, the Indians have the worst, and the Astros are all over the place. Could the Yankees use Brad Hand? Of course! But not as much as the other teams mentioned.
The Braves need all of the above…
The Cespedes comp is good, but what’s missing from that return package is the hindsight of the deal itself. I think that teams are seeing the recent impact of acquiring elite hitters, and that will further drive up the price for Machado, while the market for more marginal SPs and position players takes a relative nosedive.
Cueto and Darvish have never had a 5 WAR season prior to trade. Martinez was only a 5 WAR player one year because by some stroke of luck he didn’t grade out as a crappy fielder for a season. Every player traded was at least 29 at the time of trade and non had the flexibility Machado does.
Machado is a Unicorn. I get as a rental age isn’t really a factor, but for the Orioles it probably will be at least somewhere in the discussions. I have 0 clue what he’s truly worth, this is a great exercise to look into the past. But it really goes to show that this type of player rarely hits the trade block and trying to quantify the value is hard.
Cueto, Price, Cespedes, Martinez, Darvish? I’d add Verlander, unless I’ve missed the point of the exercise.
There are other problems with a trade, of course. You’re better off fitting Manny in at 3B, so if you have a “valuable” 3B (for some definition of “valuable,”) you’d need a roster shift. You also have to be able to afford his remaining salary, which might cause problems for the obvious contenders. I’m pretty sure the Orioles won’t pay part of it.
And I’m ignoring the peculiar (and occasionally very noble) attitude of Orioles management.
If I had to guess, I’d go with a team within reach of the Wild Card, with maybe a couple of pitching prospects to spare. But as far as I can see, there aren’t any of those.
It actually wouldn’t surprise me to see Manny last until the end of the season and be given a QO. Because I can’t think of a team that will pay the price the Orioles want for the rental.
“You’re better off fitting Manny in at 3B, so if you have a “valuable” 3B (for some definition of “valuable,”) you’d need a roster shift. ”
Depends on how valuable the 3b currently is and where they can move. Take Boston or the NYY for example, both have a solid 3b but are weak at 1b easy adjustments. Others could easily move a 3b to left field like the Braves did with Chipper Jones when they reacquired Vinny Castilla for the 2002 season.
“You also have to be able to afford his remaining salary, which might cause problems for the obvious contenders. I’m pretty sure the Orioles won’t pay part of it.”
The Orioles have the cap space to cover that. If they do they could easily parlay that into better or more prospects.
“It actually wouldn’t surprise me to see Manny last until the end of the season and be given a QO. Because I can’t think of a team that will pay the price the Orioles want for the rental.”
That’s a big issue. I thought that at first, but you have to remember they only gain 1 pick on a player walking away from a QO. So that not only reduces the trade value somewhat but it also gives them an incentive to take any deal that exceeds the value of a Comp round A pick, which is basically a top pick in the 2nd round. Pretty sure they’ll trade him with that knowledge.
I don’t understand why people are putting Andujar in the “this should be my asking” price range for Machado. Don’t get me wrong when I say this, but Machado comes off like a huge diva (wanting to play SS to maximize, saying he’s not going to play 3B if traded, the time he threw the bat at Josh Donaldson, or the “lets stare down Ventura” debacle, the whole joke of a series with the Red Sox where he just fanned the flames afterward in the interview) like it just seems he has the “eh f*ck you, I’m a big deal” attitude to a lot of scenarios he’s in. so, you’re going to trade your starting third baseman (and potential RoY candidate), for someone who won’t play 3b, and is worse defensively (at least metrically so far) than your current SS Didi? It just makes no sense. Literally the only reason I see the Yankees doing this is to stop someone else in the AL from getting him and meeting him in the postseason because he’s killed them for the past 4 years, or they are trying to unload Andujar before Machado gets dealt for a dark horse SP that people are unaware is being dealt yet and roll with Drury at 3rd, and Stanton / Judge / Hicks;Gardner platoon and DH him?
It’s a shame Josh Donaldson has been hurt all season, not just because it basically sunk any hope for the Jays, but also because if the Jays were still out of it but Donaldson was playing well, I could see the Yankees deciding to push their chips in on this year and trading Andujar to Toronto as part of a package for Donaldson and Happ.
As it stands now, I just can’t see Toronto getting much of a return for JD, even if they do trade him in August.
If we assume the Orioles want a pitcher, below are the headliners that fall between prospect ranges outlined in the article (Prospect Rank 18-55 using Mid-Season Update) for teams that would subjectively be interested in Machado.
Arizona (None, #84 Jon Duplantier not enough)
Braves (#23 Mike Soroka or # 24 Kyle Wright or # 26 Luiz Gohara or #41 Ian Anderson or # 51 Touki Toussiant)
Boston (None #122 Jay Groome injury risk)
Cubs (None)
Dodgers (None)
Indians (#48 Tristion Mckenzie or #64 Shane Bieber)
Brewers (#27 Corbin Burnes)
Yankees (#30 Justus Sheffield or #50 Albert Abreu)
Athletics (#47 Jesus Luzardo or #35 AJ Puk)
Phillies (#49 Adonis Medina)
Cardinals (None)
Nationals (None)
Chapman deal deserves mention. Nice return on that
It’s touched on a bit above, but can you walk through how you compiled this list of 5-WAR players? The only one who was consistently above 5+ WAR and/or on pace for 5 WAR during the season he was traded is Price. As Machado was projected to be well above 5 coming into the year and has been even better than that, none of these guys (save Price) appear to be in his class.
I wish Jeff would have included another four years into his search criteria so the Carlos Beltran three-team trade in 2004 would have been included. The Royals had the best asset – at least baseball-wise – in that deal, and looking back they clearly got the worst of it. The A’s would do it again, the Astros clearly would have done it again, and the Royals got crap.
Man, look at those prospects. Thus far Matt Boyd is the second best of the 14, and there’s no one in third. I wouldn’t read too much into it, but that’s a grim precedent for how these guys do after being traded
The problem with the Brewers, is that their top 2 prospects are guys they need next season. Hiura at 2B and Burnes at SP are both probably penciled in to 2019’s starting roster at this point, if either go out the door in a deal, there’s going to be a hole to fill.
Thanks for pointing “Machado is a strong third baseman with lousy numbers at short.” AND he says he’s a shortstop. Obviously Manny has a lot of value and the value is greater depending on who he replaces.