The Rays Finally Have a Full Rotation, At Least For Now
The average innings per start across MLB has been in decline for a few years now. The last time starting pitchers threw more innings than they did the previous season was in 2014, at 5.97 per start. Just five years later, that number had dropped all the way to 5.18, a loss of nearly 400 starter innings league-wide. At the forefront of this were the Rays, who began using openers in 2018 and finished the year with their starters throwing nearly 200 fewer innings than those of any other team.
Two seasons later, a pandemic-shortened season introduced a number of factors — injuries, larger rosters, seven-inning doubleheaders, and more — that helped the rest of the majors take a step toward Tampa Bay’s minimization of the starter’s responsibilities.
With the 2021 season two months away, it seems apparent that those two lines are about to diverge. With roster sizes being trimmed back to 26 and a somewhat more typical offseason hopefully leading to fewer injuries, I would guess that the average starter workload will go up for the first time in seven years. The Rays, however, appear to be heading for a season of pitching management even more extreme than what they had in 2018, after signing two pitchers over the holiday weekend: 40-year-old lefty Rich Hill and 33-year-old right-hander Collin McHugh, each at one year apiece, with the former set to make $2.5 million and the latter $1.8 million.
Those moves are precisely the kind of risky-but-cheap pitching upgrades that have comprised virtually all of the team’s additions this winter. Combined with Chris Archer and Michael Wacha, who each signed one-year deals as well, Tampa Bay has now added four veteran free-agent arms at a combined cost of less than $14 million. By Rays standards, this qualifies as a spending spree; it’s also pretty much the bare minimum for a defending pennant winner that traded away its ace and allowed another good starter to walk in free agency.
With Blake Snell and Charlie Morton both gone, Tampa Bay’s rotation appeared to have some enormous question marks. Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough were comfortably in, but beyond that, it was anyone’s guess who the team might use to eat innings. Now, the picture seems more clear. Archer, Wacha and Hill can fill out the back half of the rotation in some order, with McHugh serving as a multi-inning reliever and potentially acting as insurance should one of those pitchers get hurt. It’s a straightforward enough plan; in fact, that’s a downright normal rotation. But how long it remains intact, and the Rays’ plans for when it no longer is, will likely prompt some unconventional solutions.
First, though, let’s talk about the newest signees. Hill is already accustomed to some Rays-ish aggressiveness when it comes to pitcher usage. Over his three seasons with the Dodgers, he averaged only 5.3 innings per start despite owning a 3.30 ERA in that time. With the Twins in 2020, he was down to 4.8 innings per start but still pitched effectively, posting a 3.03 ERA and 3.99 FIP. But while his age didn’t show through in his results, it did rear its head in other areas. His average fastball velocity was down 2.5 mph from 2019, his curveball’s vertical movement fell off considerably, and his typically elite spin rates dipped. The result was a whiff rate that was cut nearly in half and a strikeout percentage that dropped by a third.
McHugh, meanwhile, did not pitch in 2020, having opted out of the season after previously signing with Boston. Like Hill, McHugh’s performance record is solid, but the questions surrounding his effectiveness going forward are substantial. In 160 games (102 starts) from 2014 to ’18 with Houston, he earned 11.7 WAR with a 3.51 ERA and 3.50 FIP in 678.2 innings. Then, in 2019, he posted his worst season since his rookie year, allowing a 4.70 ERA and 4.43 FIP in 74.2 innings. He was also on and off the injured list that season, and after it was over, he underwent a non-surgical procedure to remove scar tissue. The recovery wasn’t as seamless as he’d hoped, which was one reason he chose to opt out of 2020.
Because of the factors outlined for each of them, the odds that either Hill or McHugh will be significant contributors for the Rays in 2021 are low; that’s why the team was able to acquire them cheaply. But it isn’t completely far-fetched. Hill could lose a good deal more of his spin rates and still be above-average in that department, and his fastball was already on the low end of the spectrum. If you’re willing to give his declining stuff the benefit of the doubt because of the pandemic year, a lefty with an ERA- of 80 or lower in four of the past five seasons is a pretty solid bet for his price. As for McHugh, he’s shown he can be effective regardless of whether he starts or relieves games, and his breaking pitches are good enough to carry him even if he loses a touch of velocity.
If you’re a Rays fan who checks this site only for your team’s transaction news, this all probably sounds familiar. Wacha, the team’s first signee of the offseason, has dealt with injuries and is coming off a 6.62 ERA in 2020 but also posted a career-best K-BB% difference and underperformed his xwOBA by one of the largest margins in baseball thanks to god-awful batted ball luck. Archer, the returning hometown favorite, offers similar reasons to believe in a bounce-back from his last couple unsuccessful seasons, but only if he can make a healthy return from thoracic outlet surgery.
With each of these four pitchers, the quality of innings isn’t really the concern; it’s the quantity. And that seems to be the point. The Rays are smart enough to know that quartet isn’t going to last the duration of 2021 unscathed. The goal instead is to maximize the impact each one has while on the mound, with the hope that when all is said and done, their combined production will add up to one or two decent starters.
That’s where Tampa’s unconventional pitching usage could come in handy. Hill is the pitcher we’re most accustomed to seeing go just two times through the order, but similar limits could be placed on Wacha, Archer and, if he starts, McHugh. The team could choose to piggyback two of them for three innings apiece, or use other strategies to limit how much time they spend on the mound at any given time. How much of an impact that could have is up for debate: Last season was a good reminder that not even the Rays are immune to a barrage of serious arm injuries. But one would hope that throwing 15 innings instead of 30 over your first five starts could only help a pitcher’s longterm odds of surviving the season.
And the bullpen throwing behind those starters will provide all the options the team could want. The list of young guys who could handle some kind of multi-inning role in Tampa Bay, whether it’s starting, following, or middle-inning relief, is overwhelming: Luis Patiño, Brent Honeywell Jr., Shane McClanahan, Josh Fleming and Brendan McKay are just the tip of the iceberg. A few weeks ago, the Rays were in a position where at least two of those pitchers would be thrust into the rotation the very first week of the season. Now they can take their time with that group, allowing them to work at Triple-A or in lower-leverage relief roles until the team feels they’re ready to take over a starting job.
As Eno Sarris noted over at The Athletic, the Rays used 12 starting pitchers over just 60 games in 2020, and losing two of the most reliable of those arms threatened to exacerbate any rotation chaos going forward. If any team could find comfort in that, it would be Tampa Bay, but the decision to spend a negligible amount of money to try to stabilize the staff was still probably the right move. The team could have spent a similar amount to bring in a big name like Corey Kluber or James Paxton, or to keep Morton, but each of those pitchers carry risks of their own. Instead, Tampa Bay decided to spread the money and risk around to four different arms, with the hopes that their combined value might add up to something worth more than a single $14-million pitcher. It’s the most Rays way to spend money that I can think of.
Tony is a contributor for FanGraphs. He began writing for Red Reporter in 2016, and has also covered prep sports for the Times West Virginian and college sports for Ohio University's The Post. He can be found on Twitter at @_TonyWolfe_.
I’m really curious how the Rays proceed through 2021 with their pitching staff. With sooo many of their pitchers being of the MIRP type (thank you for that term Longenhagen) I’m wondering if we’ll see a lot of 3x 3 IP games, or 4 + 3 + 2 IP, or some such combo. Will we see more relief appearances of more than three outs than appearances of three outs or less?
Eno’s piece suggested that the Rays are being cheap and trying to bide their time with injury-prone pitchers by design as a method to help filter and integrate their young graduating pitching prospects. I tend to agree with a lot of it. One thing that I don’t necessarily buy but think people are starting to believe is that the Rays are going to throw away longer performances for shorter ones no matter the player. Thinking the Rays are going to take something off the table is foolish, especially since one of their biggest failures was due to this rigid strategy. The strategy is simply to accomplish all their aims without committing money and roles. They are juggling a lot more players and values than most teams. They’ve just come to the conclusion that players will need to step up in situations of necessity (and their tropes, like the opener or fewer innings, are there to support pitchers that may have flaws produce at winning level ball).
Well, I think it’s a bit more indirect than that. The Rays think the MIRP type is undervalued and traditional starters are overvalued, so when those traditional starters get to 2 years of control left / get more expensive they’ll trade them.
So if they think Yarbrough or Glasnow can go 4-6 innings in 2021 they’ll let them, but Glasnow’s probably gone after this season and Yarbrough the year after that. I think there’s a good chance it will be a while before we see the Rays more than 2 traditional starters out there.
> With each of these four pitchers, the quality of innings isn’t really the concern; it’s the quantity.
Hill, McHugh, Archer and Wacha have combined for 4.56 ERA in the last two years and their average age is 34 so I would say quality of innings is absolutely a real concern as well.
Hill is probably the only player whose quality is much less of a problem and he is 40.
Is ERA the best way you know of how to judge the quality of innings? Do you know where you are?
I used ERA because it is easier to combine across multiple years of specific players.
You could have checked yourself if these pitchers were putting good peripherals and getting unlucky results, but no, you chose the easy route of ERA shaming me.
“Hill, McHugh, Archer and Wacha have combined for 4.90 FIP in the last two years and their average age is 34 so I would say quality of innings is absolutely a real concern as well.”
Better?
Seems like you are complaining about how slow the hare was when the turtle won the race.
ERA shaming isn’t a thing
heeeeeeee’s. that. guy.
I could see them using an opener again with some of these guys, but I am certainly interested in seeing how they proceed.
Wacha’s batted ball luck has to improve, surely, based on who his defense was to who it is now. He could be the biggest bounce back; he was never very bad in STL. Just injured.
That said, Glasnow, Yarborough, Hill, Archer, Wacha, McHugh, Patino, McKay, Honeywell, and probably plenty of others from their sickeningly good prospect list should be set to handle the innings.
Every “I bet that guy would be interesting” that I imagine ends up pitching for the Rays.
I agree that Morton and Snell are the big names and these additions don’t seem to match the losses of Snell and Morton. They do not need to replace the projected performance of Snell and Morton but rather the actual performance of Snell and Morton.
McHugh is much better as a RP than a SP. 2.21 ERA the last 3 years as a RP is pretty good. Rich Hill, when he pitches is effective. Between the two they have logged more innings than Snell the last 2 years (in spite of McHugh option out) and if you only include McHugh’s RP innings Snell has a higher ERA over the last 2 years (3.96 for Snell vs. 2.68 for the combination) If you include Snell’s Cy Young year it evens out from the ERA perspective. (2.85 for Snell over 3 years vs. 2.92 for the combination). However the Combo’s 2.92 ERA replaces Snell 2020 ERA of 3.24. My concern is can Hill produce like he did in the past.
Morton on the other hand was not very good in 2020. He had a 4.74 ERA and Zero quality starts in 2020. Replacing him performance should not be difficult. I like the Archer pick-up. I think he should be able to replicate Morton’s 2020 performance.
If these two pitchers replicate Snell’s and Morton’s 2020 performance and the other 24+ players match their 2020 performance the Rays should be as good as they were in 2020 when they won the division. If Meadows can bounce back from Covid 19 TB will be sneaky good.
The Rays have too many interesting SP/MIRP to not hit on enough to have one of the better pitching staffs in the AL again. Not to mention their ridiculous prospect capital that will allow them to add more pitching during the season if they want to.
So remind me again why you don’t pillory the Rays for being cheap and dumping good players? Oh right it’s the “Fangraphs Narrative” tm.
Here is one thought.
There are two ways to try for the championship. One is to maximize the opportunity when it arises by cashing in prospect capital by trading it to acquire stars and signing expensive stars. For a couple of years, you have a decent chance to go all the way, but the window tends to close quickly as the system’s talent becomes thinner and budget forces you to sacrifice some stars. Witness Cubs, Red Sox, Nationals, Astros.
The other is to maximize the number of opportunities you have, keeping the window open indefinitely by hoarding your talent at all levels and trading stars to replenish the talent base as your major league talent ages, threatens injury and gets expensive. Every year, your system, thick with talent, graduates players who keep you competitive while departing stars bring more talent to keep the escalator moving. So each year-indefinitely-you have a shot at the championship.
Maybe the motive is cheapness. But the issue is not whose budget is biggest but who has the most chances to win. So who cares about the motive. So far, the Rays have been legitimate contenders for three straight years and there is no reason to think they won’t be competitive for the next 5 or more.
I have admired the thoughts of bobr for over a dozen years. The man just absolutely knows how to bring eloquence in sharing the perspective that a good deal of us see the same. Thanks for the polish, sir!