The Red Sox’ Shot at the Win Record
In 1906, the Chicago Cubs won 116 games against just 36 losses, becoming the only MLB team ever to win at least three-quarters of its games. Nearly 100 years later, in 2001, the Seattle Mariners equaled the Cubs’ win total but (because of the 162-game schedule) also posted 10 more losses. With their own loss last night, the 81-35 Boston Red Sox are currently on pace for 113 wins. While that total would not be a record, it would still represent the fourth-highest total in history — behind the aforementioned Cubs and Mariners in addition to the 1998 Yankees — and puts them within striking distance of the record.
In order to tie the record, Boston would need to finish the season on a 35-11 tear, a .761 winning percentage. That is, admittedly, a long shot. Consider, for context, that the Red Sox started the season by winning 17 of their first 20 games and still didn’t win their 35th of the year until after they had put up 16 losses. From May 24 through July 12, the team went 32-14 and, in an overlapping stretch from June 14 through Wednesday’s 10-5 win over the Blue Jays, the team went 34-12. In fact, backing up the recent run to June 11, the club went 37-12, a .755 winning percentage nearly identical to how they would need to finish the season and tie the win record.
While the Red Sox are incredibly talented, our projections don’t quite see a record as a realistic possibility, pegging Boston for a 108-win season. By going to our win-distribution graphs, we can get a better understanding of the team’s odds. What we see below are the win distributions for the AL East.
Half of the time the playoff odds are run, the Red Sox finish with 106 to 110 wins. That’s the most likely outcome based on our projections. Any one of those win totals would be one of the greatest in history. Since the league moved to the 162-game schedule in 1961 (and in 1962 for both leagues), only nine teams have even won 105 games. Only three of those have won more than the 108 games for which Boston is projected.
| Team | Year | W | L | W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 2001 | 116 | 46 | .716 |
| New York Yankees | 1998 | 114 | 48 | .704 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1969 | 109 | 53 | .673 |
| New York Yankees | 1961 | 109 | 53 | .673 |
| New York Mets | 1986 | 108 | 54 | .667 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1975 | 108 | 54 | .667 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1970 | 108 | 54 | .667 |
| Atlanta Braves | 1998 | 106 | 56 | .654 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2004 | 105 | 57 | .648 |
If this post is starting to look familiar, it’s because I wrote a very similar one about a year ago for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Heading into action, a year ago today, the Dodgers had an 80-33 record and were on pace for a 115-win season. The club slowed down with a 24-25 finish to fall just short of the table above. Using a similar table to last season, here is where the best teams stood on August 1 in each respective season.
| Team | Year | Aug. 1 W% | Pace | Actual wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 1998 | .740 | 120 | 114 | -6 |
| Seattle Mariners | 2001 | .720 | 117 | 116 | -1 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1969 | .692 | 112 | 109 | -3 |
| Boston Red Sox | 2018 | .688 | 111 | ||
| New York Mets | 1986 | .677 | 110 | 108 | -2 |
| Atlanta Braves | 1998 | .648 | 105 | 106 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1975 | .645 | 104 | 108 | 4 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2004 | .644 | 104 | 105 | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1961 | .626 | 101 | 109 | 8 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1970 | .625 | 101 | 108 | 7 |
| AVERAGE | .669 | 108 | 109 | 1 |
Note that the Red Sox are near the top of the list, but also note that most teams at the top of the list tended to lose ground over the final months of the season. This isn’t too far off from the projected 108-win total. What the table above does not show are all the teams similarly situated to the Red Sox that failed to reach the 105-win threshold. To that end, see the table below, which includes all teams since 1961 that were on pace for at least 105 wins and how those teams ultimately fared.
| Team | YEar | Aug. 1 W% | Pace | Final Wins | Change | Final W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 1998 | .740 | 120 | 114 | -6 | .704 |
| Seattle Mariners | 2001 | .720 | 117 | 116 | -1 | .716 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2017 | .704 | 114 | 104 | -10 | .642 |
| Baltmore Orioles | 1969 | .692 | 112 | 109 | -3 | .673 |
| Boston Red Sox | 2018 | .688 | 111 | |||
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1976 | .683 | 111 | 101 | -10 | .623 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1970 | .682 | 110 | 102 | -8 | .630 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1979 | .679 | 110 | 102 | -8 | .642 |
| New York Mets | 1986 | .677 | 110 | 108 | -2 | .667 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1984 | .676 | 110 | 104 | -6 | .642 |
| San Francsico Giants | 1993 | .670 | 109 | 103 | -6 | .636 |
| Detroit Tigers | 2006 | .670 | 109 | 95 | -14 | .586 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1962 | .664 | 108 | 101 | -7 | .620 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1968 | .664 | 108 | 97 | -11 | .599 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1966 | .663 | 107 | 97 | -10 | .606 |
| Chicago White Sox | 2005 | .663 | 107 | 99 | -8 | .611 |
| Atlanta Braves | 2003 | .661 | 107 | 101 | -6 | .623 |
| Atlanta Braves | 1998 | .658 | 107 | 106 | -1 | .654 |
| Houston Astros | 2017 | .656 | 106 | 101 | -5 | .624 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1974 | .651 | 105 | 102 | -3 | .630 |
| AVERAGE | .678 | 110 | 103 | -6 | .638 |
On average, teams lost about six games from their August 1 pace. Note that how teams performed down the stretch didn’t necessarily impact playoff performance. Thirteen of the 19 teams above made it to the World Series — including five of six teams that lost eight games or more off their pace since playoffs expanded in 1969 — and six won championships. The poor 1993 Giants team didn’t even make the playoffs, but that doesn’t seem too likely for the Red Sox this season. Both World Series participants from last year are on the list.
While we should note that every team above fell off their August 1 pace, we should also note that the Red Sox have actually improved their pace so far this season, winning six of the last seven games. Teams fall off the pace for a variety of reasons, including run-of-the-mill regression and a lack of urgency in September, by which time they have typically amassed a pretty large lead. Generally speaking, though, winning two out of every three games is really hard at the major-league level. By Pythagorean wins, the Red Sox have garnered three extra wins compared to their run differential, and using BaseRuns to strip out sequencing, the Red Sox have an extra seven wins with neutral-sequencing luck. By both of the latter measures, the Astros are actually ahead of the Red Sox this season.
To look at the actual chances of the Red Sox getting to 116 wins and tying the record, let’s take another look at the win distribution from earlier in this post.
The number of outcomes where the Red Sox tie or break the record is clearly not high, but in the simulations, Boston does get there on a decent number of occasions. The table below shows the percentage of outcomes where the Red Sox have at least a certain number of wins.
| WIns (At Least) | Odds |
|---|---|
| 97 | 100% |
| 98 | 99.95% |
| 99 | 99.88% |
| 100 | 99.57% |
| 101 | 99.03% |
| 102 | 97.70% |
| 103 | 95.70% |
| 104 | 92.41% |
| 105 | 86.78% |
| 106 | 78.99% |
| 107 | 69.52% |
| 108 | 58.42% |
| 109 | 46.46% |
| 110 | 34.86% |
| 111 | 24.07% |
| 112 | 15.87% |
| 113 | 9.01% |
| 114 | 4.88% |
| 115 | 2.15% |
| 116 | 1.01% |
| 117 | 0.42% |
| 118 | 0.12% |
| 119 | 0.04% |
| 120 | 0.01% |
Our playoff odds give the Red Sox about a 1-in-100 shot at tying the win record and about 1-in-240 shot at breaking it. In one of the 10,000 simulations, the Red Sox won 123 games, which would still fall a single game short of the Cubs’ 1906 winning percentage. The odds are against the Red Sox, but if they play the final 46 games like they have the last 50, they could get pretty close.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
From 2000 to 2017, there were 15 teams with at least a 35-11 run. In those 18 years there were 540 team seasons, so the odds of a team going on such a run in a given season come out to 2.8%.
But the Red Sox have exactly one remaining opportunity to start a 35-11+ run, while in a 162 game season each team has 117, so the odds that a random team starts such a 46-game run on any given day is just 0.024%
this isn’t controlled for the quality of the team tho
Yes, but that effect isn’t significant enough to materially affect his observation. It’s extremely unlikely the Red Sox will tie or break the record.
Haha, this is like saying that it is highly unlikely that a hitter will put up a .400 AVG with the following reasoning: Just think of how low the odds are if you consider the batting averages of all hitters ever over sequences of 500 at-bats! Then when you take into account that the streak would have to start ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE SEASON the odds are unfathomable!
This is why I’ll stick to Craig’s analysis.
Is this…not pretty much true though? It might not be the best way to predict if someone’s gonna hit .400, but it sure seems like it would steer you toward the right answer of “almost certainly not.”
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The all-time win record seems beyond reach. But what is likely is that they’ll break the Red Sox win record: 105 . And the Red Sox winning % record of .691 is within reach; they are currently at .698.
Here’s what’s particularly amazing: They are doing this while getting almost nothing on offense out of their catchers and second basemen, below average production out of third base and center field, and a bunch of okay-ish starters behind Chris Sale. But Mookie and JD are so dominant at the plate right now. It’s madness.
And the cleanup hitter they started the year with no longer plays baseball.
Addition by subtraction!
Are JD & Mookie having the best tandem season by 2 teammates since…Ruth/Gehrig? I’m sure there is someone else,but, this does give us an idea of the advantage given by having 2 players having incredible seasons. It papers over a lot of holes.
They’re not even having the best tandem season this year. Ramirez + Lindor have been a better combo.
By WAR, yes, but from a purely offensive viewpoint which I think OP was referring too, Mookie and J.D. are significantly better (a 194 and 178 wrc+ for those too as opposed to 170 for Ramirez and 154 for Lindor)
Best since Ruth/Gehrig?
A certain Mr. Bonds would like to talk to you.
2001: Bonds (235 wRC+) + Rich Aurilia (144 wRC+)
2002: Bonds (244 wRC+) + Jeff Kent (147 wRC+)
2004: Bonds (233 wRC+) + JT Snow (153 wRC+)
The first two, in my opinion, are definitely better than Martinez/Betts. The third is bit iffy since Snow only played 107 games.
(btw, Mantle also had several seasons with wRC+ above 190 but I don’t feel like looking through them).
Good call. My thought after thinking about it after I posted was, it was probably Bonds & some teammate, probably Kent. I had forgotten about Aurilia’s one big year.
Pujols had 4-5 season over 180, but, never had a teammate over 160 that I can see.
Maybe a better question is last time 2 teammates had a 175 wRC+?
I’m quite surprised neither Edmonds or Rolen (or Holliday, I guess) never managed a season of that level. I guess they both got a lot of value from their defence, though.
Going by wRC+-
In 2003- Pujols had a 184, Edmonds had 156.
In 2004- Pujols had a 171, Edmonds had 168, Rolen had 159 (That might be the best trio in a looonngg time.)
In 2008- Pujols had 184, Ryan Ludwick had 158
In 2009, Pujols had 180, Holliday had a 168, but in only 63 games.
I’d call 2003 & 2004 pretty darn close, but, Betts is at 192, J D is at 182.
I’d always assumed Ortiz-Manny was the best Sox combo I’d see in my lifetime, but Ortiz only hit 175 wRC+ once, in 2007, and that was a down year for Ramirez (126).
The best they achieved together was in 2006: Ramirez 163, Ortiz 157. So yeah, this is pretty crazy.
Hmmm….2 teammates with wRC+ above 175?
I looked at some of the obvious candidates (Aaron, Williams, Mays, Mantle,F. Robinson, ARod, Griffey).
Here are 3 closest that I found:
1) 1959: Aaron (175) and Mathews (166)
2) 2005: ARod (174) and Giambi (165)
3) 1961: Mantle (196) and Maris (162)
The 1989 Giants probably come closest to matching this, with Will Clark at 174 and Kevin Mitchell at 184.
I never would have guessed that one. I spent a good chunk of time this AM looking at potential combos (Williams, Mantle, Mays90’s Cleveland, 80 Brett, ’81 Schmidt, ’94 Bonds/Williams, 94 Bagwell,90’s M’s, 70’s Reds, Musial, Dimaggio).
Ruth/Gehrig did pull it off a # of times.
JBJ has actually provided above average production in CF (as incredible as it seems). 1.9 WAR and projected for 2.6 WAR. He has a shot at a 3 WAR season, which is pretty bonkers given his start to the season.
This was really compelling stuff on such a sad topic.
Boston scores 14 runs in the 6-8 innings to take a 19-11 lead? At this point, I’ll pretty much believe anything.
Why not? They’ve had the easiest schedule yet.
If the strike zone regresses back to the mean, then they will likely struggle to break the record. This is according to Baseball Savant’s “official zone data,” looking at various missed calls for the top 3 projected teams in the AL (totals are relative to each other, and numbers in parentheses are overall rankings):
Outside BB Called K
NYY-45(5): -12
HOU-43(9): -2
BOS-33(27)
Edge Pitch Called K
HOU-1606(7): -11
NYY-1595(10)
BOS-1595(11)
Edge Pitch Called BB
BOS-1718(8): +120
HOU-1699(11) +101
NYY-1598(20)
K Called BB
HOU-24(18): E
NYY-24(19): +7
BOS-17(28)
Totals:
BOS: +113
HOU: +95
NYY: -5
I’m gonna have to see that data normalized to the total number of pitches before I take it seriously. Have the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees seen the same number of total pitches?
The total called balls and strikes for each team are actually very close (a margin of 1.8% more calls between 1st and 3rd) and definitely not enough to warrant such an extreme disparity:
NYY-9339(3): +167
BOS-9284(7): +112
HOU-9172(11)
While Yankees are taking more pitches than Boston or Houston, they’ve only take 49 more pitches than calls that have gone against them. Stated another way, 71% of the additional pitches they’ve taken have been called against them.
For reference, these are the the numbers for all pitches (4.5% total pitch disparity):
BOS-18285(3): +787
NYY-18048(5): +550
HOU-17498(17)
Thanks. It’s still hard to tell from this data whether the effect is more that the Yankees are getting screwed or that the Red Sox are getting unearned benefit. Rather, it is clear that the Red Sox are getting unearned benefit, but it’s not clear how strong of an effect that is on their performance, regardless of what’s happening to NYY and HOU. Is the difference 3 runs or 13 runs over the course of 40 games? (Relativizing the data among the three actually obscures things.) We’d also have to know whether these calls are going similarly for each team’s pitching and hitting, which would counterbalance the effect.
The key factor is all the bad teams are inflating wins for the good teams. There are at least 3 teams who would struggle to be 500 teams in AAA and another 3 who are AAAA teams. And a couple more teams who after selling off at the TD may be AAA/AAAA teams.
This is like an expansion year. Three of the top 4 winning teams since 1961 were in expansion years
It helps if those teams are in your division (for obvious reasons). But even there, there seems to be some sort of separation between the “monster” teams.
Against BAL, TBR and TOR, the Red Sox are 34-10, or 77%. The Yankees are 21-16, or 57%. Against KCR, CHW and DET, the Indians are 28-9, or 76%. The Astros have one punch-bag (TEX), one not-very-good (LAA) team, and two out-performing teams in their division; against the first two they are 19-11, for 63%.
If facing AAA+ teams was all there was to it, you’d expect Boston and Cleveland to be projected for 100+ wins, with Houston having to overcome a relatively strong division, and New York lagging. As it is, Cleveland are very unlikely to get near 100 wins; Houston will probably edge it, because they have a good record against good teams, and New York will “out-perform” their not-so-great record against cellar-dwellers. Probably. But there’s more to it than just beating up the bad teams.
Looks like the Red Sox have a better than 1-in-240 shot of breaking the record — adding up all the odds of 117 or higher gets to 0.6%, which is about 166-to-1.
No, the table is cumulative which is clear if you look at the top values. .42% of 117 of more wins.
Interesting of course, but it won’t mean much if they don’t win it all. That 1906 Cubs team did not win the WS, neither did that roided up Mariners team. Only 5 of the 9 won a WS.
The teams on the list that did win the WS:
1961 Yankees
1970 Orioles
1975 Reds
1986 Mets
1998 Yankees
As soon as these articles came out last season, the Dodgers went in the tank and barely won 100 games.
Yankee fans applaud the effort.
Unloading all the bullets in the chamber in September to go after 117 would impact October readiness. With the randomness of call-ups, anything is possible… AAAA Toronto and Baltimore have padded the total.
It’ll only make the inevitable ALDS collapse even more painful