The Remaining First Basemen
Even after the recent signings of Adam Dunn, Aubrey Huff, and Victor Martinez, there are still a number of intriguing older first basemen left on the market. Unfortunately, many of those players share a similar flaw: each has peaked in terms of production at a position that doesn’t typically age well. Given the four-year deals handed to Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn, and the two-year contract given to Aubrey Huff, these older sluggers have to be wondering if they too are in line for a multi-year deal.
While it will be difficult for Dunn and Martinez to live up to those contracts in the second half of their deals, they were two of the younger options at the position. Huff’s deal is particularly interesting, considering many of the remaining first basemen on the market (Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, and Lyle Overbay) are about the same age as Huff. If his deal is any indication, those players could receive some lucrative offers.
This off-season to date has been defined by a rise in prices over what we’ve seen in the past two years, and it’s clear the agents for the remaining available players will attempt to follow the trend. Lance Berkman is reportedly seeking between $8-10 million next season despite the fact that he’s coming off a year where he hit .248/.368/.413. If Berkman is demanding $8-10 million after a down year, how much should Paul Konerko demand following arguably the best offensive season of his career?
Adam LaRoche and Carlos Pena are also still looking for work. LaRoche, 30, still could have some productive seasons left in his bat, but he was forced to settle for a one-year deal last off-season and responded with his worst offensive season since 2005. Pena hit only .196 and was unbelievably bad down the stretch, including a number of memorable strikeouts in the playoffs. If either is able to land a multi-year deal after their 2010 performances, you will know that inflation is running wild.
Based on the Dunn, Martinez, and Huff signings, it’s clear that some teams were willing to give an extra year to get the player they really wanted. This might bode well for the remaining free agents at the position, who can use those contracts to argue that market value has changed, though they’ve also lost potential bidders with jobs being filled. While Konerko probably has the most to gain (considering his stats last season), Pena, Berkman, and Lee could all seek multi-year commitments. Will teams give in to an appearance of a change in prices, or will these players end up in a game of musical chairs? It should be one of the more interesting developments of the winter.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
I can see Berkman having a bounce back year. He does not have many good years left but I think he might be a nice bargain for somone in 2011.
Pena, on the other hand, does not impress me. Way too many K’s.
Hopefully Konerko resigns with my White Sox. Looks like Konerko/Dunn back to back in order if they sign Paulie. Lot’s of homers and double plays (and clogging the base paths).
pena is still pretty young. And even though he was atrocious this year, he has been very productive the last 3 years or so. And he is actually a good defensive player, unlike all the statues on this list. I think he will get a multiyear deal paying double digits per year. He is more likely to bounce back than berkman and is good for a team like the nats who are tired of having a statue at first. Everyone is focusing too much on penas bad walk year, not the performances that preceded it.
Pena is 32 with a -16.2 career UZR. He’s been above 0.4 twice. His last two years have been -4.6 and -2.8. He’s a bad defensive 1B and his bat is an absolute joke at this point.
Berkman was playing on a rehabbing knee surgery last year, and his range was less than normal. However, he is not a bad first baseman; after his previous knee surgery season (05), he bounced back defensively with some great defensive years at 1st base. Also, Berkman is usually at or near the top of first baseman in “scoops.” Even if his range has taken a hit, he saves the other infielders some errors by savings throws to first base. Berkman is not a Adam Dunn type defensive first baseman.
You’re right to emphasize years above dollars – we’re seeing inflation in both. (Dunn I think got the contract he should have had two years ago, but even so….) As teams commit themselves to overpaying, in all probability, in the out-years, and having to bring in new productive talent, can we assume that they’re expecting that salaries will continue to rise rapidly, and that the luxury tax will be gone (or the cap raised out of sight)?
I haven’t looked, but how many teams have spots open? I would think that at some point some of these guys are going to have to whatever the last team will give them.
Well let’s see.
The Rays, Nats, Cubs, Braves, and Orioles need first basemen. The Indians, WhiteSox, RedSox, and BlueJays could possibly look for first basemen. The As, and Rangers have needs at DH. The Rockies and Dbacks are said to have interest in Berkman and Konerko respectively. The Twins want Thome but don’t figure to have interest in any others should he not return (the have Kubel already).
So 5-13 teams could have interest in a firstbaseman.
Konerko-
Berkman-
Pena-
LaRouche-
Lee-
Overbay-
Cantu-
Branyan-
Johnson-
Wiggington-
Glaus-
Nady-
Kotchman-
Atkins-
Sweeney-
I fully expect dominoes to fall just as they have for the catching and middle infield market.
Knowing whether Beltre will return to Boston or not, will then determine whether the RedSox will be in play, they could trade for Fielder or Gonzalez, but that would open up a need in SD as well.
The Braves have a first baseman already in Freddie Freeman….Plus they have Hinske an Prado to back him up if he starts out to slow, so no, they’re not looking to sign a first baseman.
I know they have Freeman…………………duh.
I just figure that if they decide to go the Buster Posey route with him, it would make sense to add another bat to fill in for the first few months. That could be Lyle Overbay, or Adam Dunn, or whomever, I just didn’t assume it was Hinske. No need to pretend you’re offended by my utter lack of Braves knowledge. 😛
dam it didn’t mean to say Dunn. guh
Every defensive metric rates Carlos Pena as a bad defensive 1B. He’s 32 and has been in offensive decline for 3 years and defensive decline for 2 years. He’s only gotten a UZR above 0.4 twice and has a -16.2 UZR for his career. It’s an absolute joke that he’s considered a good defender.
Last seasons’ 1B UZR for Dunn was -3.1 and -2.8 for Pena. Throw in Pena’s -4.6 in 09 and he’s just not any good compared to the whipping boy for supposedly bad defense.
It’s funny how on a website where so many people were quick to gnash their teeth at Jeter’s gold glove, people still consistently say Carlos Pena is a good defensive first baseman when he simply isn’t.
Freedie Freeman will start at first for the braves and it isn’t totally unreasonable for him to play better than all of those options above why do you say the braves need a firstbaseman?
I was under the impression that they would not start the year with Freeman at first, and also that it would be wise to have some insurance at the position as contenders. But yeah, with Freeman in the wings, the Braves wouldn’t need anything more than a 1 year signing.
Didn’t they just re-up with Hinske? I’m assuming he’s a placeholder and bench player once Freeman is ready.
OK, well, in any case, changing the estimate to 4-13 teams interested in 1st basemen does not really change anything.
A hypothetical
Boston trades for Gonzalez
The WhiteSox resign Konerko
The Nats sign Pena
The Rangers sign Vlad
The Rockies sign Berkman
The Blue Jays sign Johnson
Branyan signs with Seattle
The Brewers sign Lee
The Padres sign Cantu
The Indians sign Overbay…maybe..idk
It seems like there will be more teams looking for servicable first basemen/bats in general then there will be bats available.
The Cubs sign LaRouche
The Orioles Resign Wiggington
The Rays trade for Fielder
The Nats sign Pena and Mike Rizzo should get fired on the spot. How in the world can a team justify staying at the same level defensively (being generous to Pena) and losing nearly all value at the plate?
At this point the only legitimate options for the Nats to salvage 1B for 2011 are signing a FA like LaRoche or Berkman or even moving Michael Morse to 1B and going after someone like Jayson Werth for the OF.
The Rays owner came out and publicly stated the payroll would be cut for 2011 hence not even attempting to sign Crawford, Pena, Soriano and 5 other relievers. They aren’t trading for a contract like Fielder.
It does appear though that Table is correct in Gonzo being dealt to Red Sox and Konerko more than likely reupping with the Sox. I don’t see the Padres being big players to sign a free agent 1B as they appear to be shedding payroll.
What’s with the Berkman to Colorado talk? What am I missing?
1. Berkman can still play the outfield?
2. Helton is retiring?
3. The new freespending Rockies will pay 8-9M for a pinchhitter/player to spell Helton once a week?
As much as I would love Helton to retire, I haven’t heard any talk.
Maybe Helton is getting benched finally? Could his bad play in 3 of the last 5 years finally force him out of the lineup?
Yep, it has been a problem. Last year they inexplicably only had Giambi as a back-up plan. I hope they are stocking up potential replacements all over the minors and bring some MLB wash outs into spring camp as well. I wasn’t expecting someone like Berkman to be signed who I think is a good candidate for a rebound year.
The Nats are not going to be in contention next year, so it does not make sense for them to spend on one of the better free agents, their best bet is to sign a bargain reclamation project like Pena. They can pitch him to their fanbase as a strong defender with the potential to hit as many homers as Dunn. In reality, if he does bounce back, he could be an inferior but much cheaper version of Dunn who could then be traded for a prospect.
Unless the Rays are giving up on 2011 they will need to make some moves for bats. Fielder has 1 year left on his contract, and for the right prospects/pitchers I’m sure Milwaukee would eat allot of his contract.
An update.
Gonzalez traded to the Redsox
Berkman signs with the Cardinals as leftfielder.
Also, the Rangers are said to be looking at Konerko, as a Dh?
The other teams with potential DH holes, Toronto, Oakland, Seattle, Tampa Bay, maybe the Orioles/