The Revamped Padres Have Surged into First Place in the NL West

Don’t look now, but for the first time in three and a half months, the NL West has a new leader. While the Dodgers have struggled to the point of face-planting, the Padres have surged, producing a 10-game swing in the NL West standings since July 3 thanks in large part to a dominant bullpen and some timely upgrades ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. The Southern California rivals are set to square off six times in the next 10 days, starting with a weekend series in Los Angeles — but the Padres will be without staff ace Michael King, who landed on the injured list on Thursday due to left knee inflammation.

After notching 93 victories last season — the second-highest total in franchise history — and making the playoffs for the third year out of five, the Padres bolted out of the gate in 2025, winning 15 of their first 19 games and spending much of April leading the division. They fell out of the top spot on April 26, but spent the next six weeks or so within striking distance before a 13-15 June dragged them down. Both the Padres and Giants were nine games out of first at the close of play on July 3, but since then, San Diego has put up the NL’s second-best record behind only Milwaukee (28-5), while Los Angeles and San Francisco are tied for the league’s third-worst record, half a game better than lowly Colorado and Washington (both 12-22):

The Padres took over first place on Wednesday afternoon in emphatic fashion, scoring seven second-inning runs off control-challenged Giants stater Kai-Wei Teng and cruising to an 11-1 victory. With that, they completed a three-game sweep, extended their winning streak to five games, and claimed their 14th victory in their last 17 games dating back to July 26. Later that night, the Dodgers coughed up a 5-2 lead, allowing the Angels to sweep them in Anaheim and knock them a full game out of first.

The Padres’ odds of winning the division stood at a minuscule 0.6% as of July 3, but as of Friday morning, they’re up to a season-high (36%) while the Dodgers’ odds are at their lowest (still a healthy 63.9%):

As noted in Thursday’s examination of the Dodgers, the NL West race has swung in the Padres’ direction based upon three factors. First, while the Dodgers’ offense has collapsed due to injuries and some untimely regression and/or underperformance, the Padres’ offense has improved substantially, bolstered by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s moves at the deadline. Second, what was already one of the majors’ top bullpens has become absolutely dominant in recent weeks. That improvement has helped cover for a patchy rotation and had an outsized effect on the team’s success in one-run games; meanwhile, the Dodgers’ injury-wracked bullpen has fallen apart in the close ones. Looking back at that table above, you can see the Padres have outperformed their Pythagenpat-projected winning percentage by 50 points since July 4, while the Dodgers have underperformed theirs by 82 points in the same span. Overall, the Dodgers (now 68-53) still have a slight edge in Pythagenpat (.565 to .549), but the Padres (69-53) have a slight edge in BaseRuns (.556 to .546). In other words, right now these two teams look pretty equal.

Here’s a breakdown of their offenses and run prevention before and after that July 3 point of inflection:

Through the first three-plus months of the season, the Padres’ offense was an unremarkable one aside from stars Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., with Jackson Merrill similarly effective when available; the standout soph missed four weeks in April and May due to a right hamstring strain. Solid supporting work by Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth was offset by mediocre performances from Xander Bogaerts and Luis Arraez, and a few sizable sinkholes. Soon afterwards, the Padres landed on my annual Replacement-Level Killers lists at three positions: catcher (mainly Elias Díaz and the since-released Martín Maldonado), left field (Sheets’ work had not yet offset various bygone players), and designated hitter (a rotating cast led by Arraez).

As expected, Preller took an aggressive approach ahead of the trade deadline. While he dealt away 12 prospects whom Eric Longenhagen rated as 35 FVs or better — including six 2024 draftees in one trade with the Orioles — he addressed those Killer holes as well as both ends of the pitching staff. The trade with the Orioles brought in Ramón Laureano, who has substantially upgraded the left field situation, and Ryan O’Hearn, who has yet to heat up while splitting time at DH and first base. Both are pending free agents (Laureano has a $6.5 million club option), but catcher Freddy Fermin, acquired from the Royals in exchange for starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek, has not only significantly upgraded a dismal catching situation but has four years of club control remaining. Likewise, reliever Mason Miller and starter JP Sears, both acquired from the A’s in exchange for a four-prospect package headlined by Leo De Vries — the best prospect traded at the deadline, in Longenhagen’s estimation — come with four and three years of control, respectively. Nestor Cortes, added from the Brewers with infield prospect Jorge Quintana in exchange for outfielder Brandon Lockridge, is a pending free agent.

More on the impact of those trades below, but first, here’s how the Padres hitters have fared since July 3, as compared to before:

With the exception of Merrill, all of the Padres’ biggest bats have been more productive over the past six weeks than prior, with Machado — whose 3.7 WAR has already surpassed his 2023 and ’24 marks — and Tatis leading the way. Sheets has tailed off and lost playing time to the red-hot Laureano — he has just eight plate appearances since the deadline — while several other unproductive part-timers have been swept out of the way, helping the team to an 18-point improvement in wRC+.

The acquisition of Miller, who has begun his San Diego career by striking out 12 of the first 20 hitters he’s faced, fortified what is already the strongest part of the team. The Padres bullpen, which has thrown 74.1 fewer innings than that of the Dodgers, now leads the majors in both ERA (2.97) and FIP (3.42), while ranking fourth in strikeout rate (24.8%) and strikeout-to-walk differential (15.6%). Just about any time manager Mike Shildt picks up the phone, he’s calling for a pitcher with a hot hand, as six of the seven relievers on the active roster besides Miller have ERAs of 2.12 or lower across at least 12 innings since July 4, namely closer Robert Suarez, setup man Jason Adam, and middle-relief lefties Wandy Peralta and Adrian Morejon, and righties Jeremiah Estrada and David Morgan. Suarez, who has been working on ironing out some pitch-tipping issues, has a 1.15 ERA, 2.47 FIP and 28% strikeout rate in 15.2 innings since July 4.

Where the Padres look vulnerable is in a rotation that’s basically been league average both before and after July 3 while missing key contributors. King spent 11 weeks on the injured list due to a pinched thoracic nerve, then labored for two-plus innings and 57 pitches in his return against the Red Sox last Saturday. Subsequently, his knee started barking, and he was placed on the IL retroactive to August 11; there’s no word yet as to his prognosis.

When he’s been available, King has been the Padres’ best starter, with a 2.81 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and 27.5% strikeout rate, so it’s a significant step down to fill-in Randy Vásquez, who was called up from Triple-A El Paso. In 22 starts for the Padres — tied with Dylan Cease for second on the team behind Nick Pivetta’s 24 — Vásquez has posted a respectable 3.93 ERA (97 ERA-) but a 5.31 FIP (130 FIP-) while striking out just 11.8% of hitters, the second-lowest mark of any starter with at least 100 innings.

As for the rest, Cease hasn’t pitched as badly as his 4.52 ERA suggests. He’s missed bats (30.7% strikeout rate, fourth in the majors) and eaten innings (129.1, second on the team) while producing a 3.44 FIP and 3.38 xERA, but he’s been hit harder than usual and has allowed four or more runs in three of his last seven turns, so it’s a stretch to say he’s trending in the right direction. Yu Darvish didn’t make his season debut until July 7, and so far he’s put up a 5.61 ERA (distorted by an eight-run drubbing by the Cardinals on July 24) and 4.09 FIP across seven starts. He’s posted his first two quality starts during his last three turns, so he does seem to be on the rise. Amid all that, Pivetta has risen to the occasion, with a 2.87 ERA and 3.26 FIP, and staff bests of 141.1 innings and 3.3 WAR. Beyond the bigger question of King’s availability, it remains to be seen whether Sears and Cortes, neither of whom had pitched well before being dealt (the latter was limited to two starts in Milwaukee due to a flexor strain), can improve upon Bergert and Kolek’s solid work at the back of the rotation.

One thing worth noting regarding both the Padres and the Dodgers is that they’ve each struggled against other good teams. The Padres are just 28-31 against teams with a .500 record or better, including just 2-5 against the Dodgers, while the Dodgers are 28-32 against such teams. Note that the definition of those “.500 or better” teams is a fluid one. Because the Giants have slipped below .500 (59-62), for example, neither the Padres’ 7-2 record against them nor the Dodgers’ 4-2 record against them is included in that context.

With the two three-game series on tap in the coming days — the final meetings between these rivals during the regular season — we’ll see the extent to which the power has really shifted in the NL West. The Padres haven’t officially named their starters for the series, but they’ll likely either start Vásquez or an opener against Clayton Kershaw on Friday, with Cease against old friend Blake Snell on Saturday, and Darvish against Tyler Glasnow on Sunday. Hang onto your butts, because this should be a fun stretch of baseball.