The Struggling Trio of Sluggers

by
July 1, 2009

Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi and Pat Burrell were perhaps the three most enticing DH options on the free agent market this past winter. Nearly at the halfway point of the season, and not a one of them possesses a positive win value yet.

Bradley is obviously not a DH. Part of his negative value is tied into below average fielding, but his hitting has disappointed as well. Comparing any of Bradley’s future offensive seasons to 2008 is going to result in some lopsided differences. Bradley is walking about as much as you should expect based on multiple years of data, striking out about the same, but his power has disappeared. Coming into the season only Oliver projected an ISO sub-.200 for the 31-year-old, and now ZiPS projects Bradley to finish with a ISO of .197. Score one for Brian Cartwright’s system if Bradley’s power fails to return.

More of a first baseman than a DH, GIambi’s defensive value discounts his total value, but so does his below average offense. A .324 wOBA is awful by previous Giambi standards. In fact, it would rank as the second lowest of the figure in his career, behind only 2004 with the Yankees. This year is starting to resemble 2004 on multiple levels. Giambi’s walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, and BAIBP are almost identical. Seriously, check them out:

BB% – 15.1/15.9
K% – 23.5/24.6
ISO – .170/.172
BABIP – .226/.224

ZiPS forecasts a bit of a bounce back, but I think the Athletics were expecting a bit better than a league average hitter when they reconciled with the slugger.

Burrell is the only real DH of the bunch, and the pressure of such a task was enough to strain his neck. Joe Maddon did let Burrell mosey in the outfield for one game, but the rest of the time Burrell has been paid to walk, jog, and sit. A ridiculous drop in ISO is the main culprit for Burrell’s .309 wOBA. Players generally don’t drop nearly .200 points in one off-season, yet Burrell is on pace for such.

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Eric talked about not looking for reasons for unexpected failure/success yesterday, and that applies here. It’s pretty unlikely that Bradley and Burrell both saw their power skills decline this rapidly within one off-season. If you can trick someone in your fantasy league into thinking either is ‘done’, by all means pull the trigger.





 

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Nate
16 years ago

When I saw the title: “Struggling Trio of Sluggers”, I knew there would be a Cubs hitter involved- I just didn’t know which one. Alfonso Soriano most definitely could have been in this article, and even though his June was good, so could Geo Soto. I guess that’s why they’re in 4th place.

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MPC
16 years ago
Reply to  Nate

Soto was much better in June:.257(.255 babip)/.349/.568(!) with 6 HR. Hopefully that’s a sign of a solid rest of the season (for both cubs fans and my fantasy team).

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