The Tigers and Money
Has any division seen a collection of odder off-seasons than the American League Central? The Twins have stocked up, the Indians have stocked down, and the Royals have stocked. Now, the White Sox and Tigers are engaged in what amounts to a bidding war over Johnny Damon. In order to avoid weak arm jokes about a Juan Pierre and Damon collaboration, I’ll focus on the Tigers’ supposed interest.
If reports like this one are valid, then the Tigers are willing to offer Damon a two-year deal worth around $14M. That’s a pretty chunk of change; both fiscally and literally. Most projections held Damon as this year’s Bobby Abreu; the veteran who would be iced out of a roster spot until he signed for a contract severely below than his market value. This Tigers’ offer isn’t his exact market value, but it’s considerably closer than expected. Almost too close, given the team.
Unless Kenny Williams’ desire is understated, it would seem like Detroit is bidding against themselves not only in money, but years. To make things all the murkier, this is the same Tigers’ ballclub who faced severe payroll limitations earlier this off-season, and as a result traded one of their best players because of it. Curtis Granderson will be paid only $5.5M in 2010. The Tigers also traded Edwin Jackson who will make more than $5M as well. They then turned around and used some of that money on … well, a closer, by signing Jose Valverde to a two-year deal worth $14M with a club option for 2012.
The Tigers appear willing to hand out a duplicate of that contract, minus the option, and my math skills aren’t the best, but 7+7 is more than 5+5. That’s not the entire analysis, since the value of adding Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson (along with others) cannot be understated, but it has to be unsettling for Tigers’ fans to see Granderson wear pinstripes and then possibly be replaced by an older, worse, and more expensive player.
Let’s take a closer look at Detroit’s situation. this whole financial crisis going on in Detroit extends beyond their economy. The Tigers’ payroll will sit around $120-$130M next season in large part because of extensions handed out to starting pitchers.
Following Detroit’s run to the World Series, Jeremy Bonderman received a four-year, $38M extension, and nearly a year later the Tigers acquired and re-signed Dontrelle Willis to a three-year, $29M extension, and then about one year after that, they signed Nate Robertson for three years and $21.25M. Those three combined to make 14 starts last season, which equates to roughly $2M per start. Pitchers are a different beast. Obviously all three falling to health and ineffectiveness seemed highly, highly unlikely, but it happens. That’s not even to say the contracts were bad ideas, but boy are they shaping the way the 2010 Tigers look.
Whether the Damon deal happens or not.
I think alot of assumptions were made about the Tigers having “severe payroll limitations” earlier BECAUSE of the Granderson trade along with other moves (i.e. not offering arbitration to Polanco), but it seems increasingly the case not that the Tigers have done a 180, but that the people doing the assuming were simply wrong. They drew the simple line of: Economy bad —–> Detroit’s economy even worse than the rest of bad economy ————-> Tigers will pare payroll. When certain moves that pared payroll happened, it led to further assumptions and in the minds of many, confirmation.
It appears more likely to be the case now that these assumptions were just that: Assumptions. While I think payroll was a component of the Granderson/Jackson trade in that they received four players who are very likely to at minimum be contributors on the MLB team with a combined 21 years of team control in exchange for two good players who were higher up on the pay scale, I don’t think the trade was entirely payroll driven and I haven’t seen much proof of it. The signing of Valverde and pursuit of Damon seem to reinforce that.
I do wonder though, if they’re willing to pay Damon 2/14, why they didn’t try to step in front of Boston to get Cameron? Maybe they did and his agent told them that he wasn’t interested, but it seems based on the Tigers needs that Cameron would be a better fit, allowing them to ease Austin Jackson in. Oh well.
Hit the nail on the head there. I don’t think it’s too much to suggest that the Tigers think that Jackson-Scherzer-Sizemore will be a more effective group in the next few years than Granderson-Jackson-Polanco. And team control is a big deal for reasons other than just money. The whole “Tigers don’t have money” crap is just lazy analysis that doesn’t hold water when you look at their offseason.
Basically, for that to be true, you would have to assume that after DD traded CG and EJ to save money, he got dementia or amnesia and forgot how bad their money issues were, and then went and signed Jose Valverde and now Johnny Damon. Something tells me that’s not likely.
When are you guys gonna figure out that they didn’t trade Granderson for money?
i know those pohlads have lots and lots of money but illitch is easily one of the richest owners – and he’s shown that he’s the type of owner who is willing to spend to win (set aside, for a moment, whether his underlings have gone about it properly). he’s frequently operated at a loss with the red wings in order to win. he realizes – correctly – that the increase in the value of the franchise is where you make your money. i don’t see why it’s an issue worth mentioning that the tigers will have a large payroll. not really a surprise.
I’m a little late here, but I agree as well. I think the ‘no money’ issue was a matter of pro-actively defusing negative publicity about the big Granderson trade upcoming. As well as publicly saying don’t bring your Holliday’s & Bay’s around here. The only cash issue Detroit has is the dead money tied up in those old deals.
Trust The Progress.
The Tigers did not unload Granderson and Jackson b/c of financial reasons. If its not clear by now, I don’t know what else will convince people of that. They let Ordonez hit his incentives, locked Verlander up to a long term deal, gave 2 years and $14 million to Valverde and have now offered Damon a contract. People continue to try to connect dots that are simply not there.
I’m glad to see that people are finally starting to realize that these moves are baseball driven and not money driven.
Also, Damon does not replace Granderson. I repeat, Damon is not replacing Granderson. The Tigers need a leadoff hitter (and needed one even when they had Granderson) and Damon fits in very, very nicely. He won’t be playing the same position as Granderson and he wasn’t traded for Granderson. However, he would probably lead off and he is much, much better than Granderson at that job.
If they get Damon it will complete an excellent off season for Dombrowski. Way to get better and younger at the same time Dave.
Basically, it would go like this:
-Edwin Jackson was swapped for an upgrade in Max Scherzer
-They got 2 supplemental picks and Jose Valverde for Brandon Lyon, Rodney and a 1st round pick. The supplemental picks combined to provide the same surplus value as the 1st round pick and Valverde is a clear upgrade over Rodney. Additionally, they have former 1st round pick in Ryan Perry who is probably ready to take over Lyon’s duties as one of the top set up men.
-They believe Austin Jackson will replace Granderson’s D in CF. Damon should provide about the same amount of offense as Granderson would provide and gives the team a much needed left handed bat.
-They improved the depth of their bullpen with Phil Coke and Schlereth, and believe that Sizemore is ready to take over for Polanco.
-Jeremy Bonderman is supposed to be healthy. Assuming his good health, Verlander, Porcello, Scherzer and Bonderman could be a great top 4. Valverde/Zumaya/Perry/Schlereth is a lot of high end arms in the back of the bullpen, and Bobby Seay is also a reliable lefty.
Their team projections don’t look that good b/c they are counting on their pitching delivering on its upside. And, there is a lot of risk in relying on that. But, they have a good defense and a chance at having a very good rotation. I think the plan/hope is for them to have an average offense and then excel in run prevention. They need some things to fall their way, but stranger things have happened. I don’t think they have taken as much of a step back as is commonly perceived.
I’m a big Tigers fan, and I love spring optimism, but I’m struggling to see a “good defense” for next year. Granderson and Polanco were + defenders and will likely be replaced by clearly inferior gloves. We were good last year, but that’s likely to slip.
Laird and Everett, while + defenders, are so gloriously bad at the plate that I can’t stand them. If we had more guys like Inge (not great but not terrible hitters that can field) I’d feel better.
I think it’s going to be a long year, Damon or not.
Well, Dombrowksi and others have mentioned that they expect Austin Jackson to be as good as Granderson in CF. Scott Sizemore is supposed to be a roughly average defender. So, going from Polanco to him will probably cost us 10 or so runs defensively. But, Everett, Laird and Inge are all elite defenders. Cabrera and Sizemore should be average and Jackson should be good. The 2 UZR predictors I’ve seen have Damon as a roughly average LF and CHONE loves his defense for next year. If we call him average in LF, then that would leave Magglio Ordonez as the only clear below average defensive player on the team. Everyone else would range from average to elite. The Tigers may not have as good of a defense as last year, but they should be pretty good defensively.
With the Tiger’s payroll, it would seem that they are in a win-now situation. Teams in win now situations don’t trade good established players for guys who simply have potential. It’s debatable if Austin Jackson will ever be as good as Granderson, and he certainly won’t be this season. Scherzer will probably be better then Edwin Jackson, but again, he won’t likely be this year. That is why people believed that they were cutting salary. Teams in a win-now situation generally don’t dump established players unless they are getting a clear upgrade. So, maybe the faulty belief is that the Tigers are gearing up to win this year. Perhaps they are looking more towards 2011. If this is the case, their moves make sense. If Ajack/Sherzer/Sizemore and company don’t develop as the Tigers think they will, they will replace them with 2011 free agents. So, perhaps DD is looking at the 2010 Tigers being like the 2008 Yankees. They are retooling while still trying to remain competitive.
I think there’s a decent chance Scherzer is better than Jackson this year. You could build a reasonable argument that he was better than Jackson last year. In fact, the only way you could defend an argument that Jackson was better is that he threw considerably more innings.
Yes, the only possible way you could say that Jackson was better was to count the number of innings he actually pitched.
I find it amusing that “If they get Damon” and “Way to get better and younger at the same time” were said in such close proximity to each other.
Not to nitpick, RJ, but just wanted to point out that your semicolons were off.
“That’s a pretty chunk of change; both fiscally and literally. Most projections held Damon as this year’s Bobby Abreu; the veteran who would be iced out of a roster spot until he signed for a contract severely below than his market value.”
First one should be a comma and the second one a colon. Or if you want a bigger pause in the first sentence than a comma provides, a dash could always do. No biggie, but just a heads up.
Also, see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ly1UTgiBXM
I do not think Johnny Damon will be paid in quarters. Hopefully David Cross doesn’t read Fan Graphs, or he will literally shit his pants.
wow, are you for real?
shit i didn’t capitalize! nooooooooooooooo.
wow steve, do you really think we want to read about your thoughts on grammar? I thought this is a baseball site? thanks anyway for the lesson.
Hey, I know these guys take their writing seriously and maintain a feeling of professionalism. It was an incorrect usage, so just trying to help the final product.
If they’d like their writing to be considered in the same manner as other professional writers, then yes, I expect them to understand and implement proper rules of grammar, punctuation (the actual issue here), and spelling.
Couple of points:
1. The Tigers have historically had to overpay and wait out quality free agents. They can’t just go out and sign whoever they want to a reasonable contract even if they have the payroll, so when they actually get a chance to acquire a reasonable contract to 3 WAR player without giving up assets, they don’t want to pass it up.
2. Granderson’s full contract is $23.75M for 3 years with a $2M buyout for a $13M option. The next 2 years are $13.75 M. The $5.5M figure does not tell the complete picture.
3. I think even if the contract is 2 years $14M, it’s a coup in context with the Ari/NYY trade:
a) The Tigers probably lose out on 2-3 wins (CHONE guesstimate) for the next 2 years for a Granderson/Damon exchange. The money is equal, but they don’t have the $12M obligation for 2012 or the 2013 option.
b) Depending on which projections you believe, Scherzer might be worth 2-3 wins more than Edwin Jackson over the next 2 years. Even if he’s not, you save probably $10M minimum (i.e. 2.5 wins or so). So it wouldn’t be a reach at all to say that Granderson and Edwin Jackson for Damon and Scherzer is even, over the next 2 years.
c) And for that even trade-off, you lose 1 or 2 years of CG at $12 or $23M, which at this stage I would call a push. For basically free, you get 2-3 more years of Scherzer (2012-2014), 6 years of Austin Jackson, 6 years of Daniel Schlereth, and 5 years of Phil Coke.
Thank you drive thru.
Arizona gave up so much value (more or less for free, as the guys they got back for it really suck) in that trade that you could couple almost any series of other deals with it and claim that the Tigers came out ahead overall.
Every move has to be judged on its own merits.
But the Edwin Jackson trade and the Granderson trade WERE THE SAME DEAL!!! KENNEDY TO ARIZONA IS ONE OF THE REASON THE TIGERS WERE ABLE TO GET SCHERZER…
I don’t necessarily think they are bidding against themselves. Atlanta reportedly has an offer on the table, for 1 year and I believe 4 million. Yes 2/14 is alot more but Detroit has to pay more to get Free agents. If they offered 1 year for 6 or even 7 would it be enough to make Damon come? I’m not so sure. Atlanta would be more convenient for him, they train in Orlando which is where he lives, he would be closer to home, and he wouldn’t have to DH which I’m sure he doesn’t really want to so that’s a plus for him. I think they HAD to give him a 2nd year to try to guarantee him, and having him and not having him maybe the difference between them competing for the division or not which is why I wouldn’t have a problem with it as a Tigers fan.
Thats what people have to understand about them, it hurts to say this coming from a life long Detroiter but this isn’t the most desirable place to live. The weather sucks, the city is a dump(the suburbs aren’t bad though), the economy is in shambles and even though they may contend for the division there not a realistic championship contender. They can’t pay market value to get guys to come here. Unless they are really greedy most would rather take a little less from a NY, Boston, LA, Chi etc. to play there. That’s why you see them give out huge contracts or overpay for guys because they have no choice.
Oh I agree that Detroit is a hell hole, but so (to a lesser extent) are a number of other cities. I find it hard to believe that the city makes that much of a difference to athletes. They don’t have to live in the cities during the offseason and they only spend half their time there during the regular season. I understand that Detroit had to overpay for guys like IRod and Mags when they were lousy, but they didn’t overpay when they offered an extension to Verlander. They got low level guys like Laird and Everett at market rates. I don’t believe Miggy’s extension was above the market rate. I don’t see any evidence that they need to pay more than most other cities. Sure, players will play for less for the NYY or Boston because these teams apparently own ESPN. But, these two teams are the exception.
Detroit proper might be run down, but the metro area as a whole is as nice as any major city in America… we are a metro area of 3 million plus people and only 850,000 actually live in Detroit… come see Birmingham, Grosse Point, St. Clair Shores, Berkley, Chestfield Twp., Bloomfield hills and Royal Oak and tell me Detroit is a dump….
Actually, all three of Bonderman, Willis, and Robertson succumbing to injury or ineffectiveness was very, very LIKELY.
I agree about Willis and Robertson but as far as Bonderman goes I don’t think many people saw that coming. When he signed the contract he was coming off a season of posting a 6.1 WAR and the previous year 3.5 WAR and he just turned 24. As far as I know he had no prior injury problems and was looking like he had the makings of a future star. Unfortunately that didn’t happen but I don’t see how anybody could’ve seen that coming.
“injury or ineffectiveness.”
When has Bonderman EVER been healthy?
He averaged over 30 starts a year every year he was in the pros up until that point and he led all of baseball in starts the year he signed the contract. Again there were no indications that he was going to fall apart, every year up until the contract he was improving greatly. Even his first half of 07 was great until he suddenly developed a blood clot and it all went downhill from there.
From fantasypitchfx.com DL tool:
DateOn DateOff Transaction # Days Side Body Part Injury Severity-Desc Surgery Date Reaggrevation
2009-06-09 2009-09-01 15-DL 84 Right Shoulder Recovery from Surgery Thoracic Outlet Syndrome 2008-06-20 Yes
2009-03-20 2009-06-08 15-DL 80 Right Shoulder Recovery from Surgery Thoracic Outlet Syndrome 2008-06-20 Yes
2009-02-28 2009-03-20 Camp 20 Right Shoulder Pinched Nerve Back of shoulder
2008-06-07 2008-09-28 60-DL 113 Right Shoulder Surgery Thoracic Outlet Syndrome 2008-06-20
2007-09-10 2007-09-30 DTD 20 Right Elbow Cartilage Injury Pinched lateral cartilage Yes
2007-09-04 2007-09-04 DTD 0 Right Elbow Soreness
2007-05-09 2007-05-24 15-DL 15 Right Hand Blister Middle Finger Yes
2007-05-01 2007-05-08 DTD 7 Right Hand Blister Middle Finger
2006-07-01 2006-07-01 DTD 0 Abdomen Tightness
2006-04-15 2006-04-15 DTD 0 Lower Leg Contusion Batted Ball
2005-09-20 2005-10-02 DTD 12 Right Elbow Soreness Yes
2005-09-05 2005-09-19 DTD 14 Right Elbow Soreness
2005-08-24 2005-08-24 DTD 0 Right Hand Contusion Batted Ball
2005-05-19 2005-05-20 DTD 1 Right Shoulder Fatigue Dead Arm
2004-08-01 2004-08-01 DTD 0 Left Lower Leg Contusion Batted Ball Shin
2004-04-09 2004-04-13 DTD 4 Left Lower Leg Contusion Batted Ball Calf
Not only did he battle arm sorenes up to his contract date and subsequent surgeries, but he was also apparently a batted ball magnet. 😛
Wow that’s a pretty cool tool. You’re right about the batted ball thing, didn’t realize he was drilled that much. But I’m not denying he’s been a walking injury the last couple years I was just saying up until the contract he signed in 06 he wasn’t. Most of those injuries listed were either fluke injuries or something you wouldn’t expect to be a long term thing. Like the batted ball incidents, the abdominal tightness, the blister, really the only sign was the two instances of elbow soreness but pitchers go through things like that alot, it’s not like he missed much if any time for it.
I agree with that assessment. While Bonderman had some DL issues, they were all relatively minor stuff. He put in his innings and was solid. I would say their contract with him could have easily turned out nicely but that’s not how it went.
Willis and Robertson though were awful guys to give that money too though. Robertson was never any good. Even at his best, Robertson was the kind of guy somebody could get as a FA any old offseason for the same kind of money and who had little upside. Willis had just run off a cliff performancewise before he ended up on the Tigers.
I just don’t get the logic especially of the Willis thing. They had to take on Willis as what was basically a brilliant salary dump by the Marlins when they got Cabrera. But apparently, no one informed the Tigers that the Marlins were more than ready to cut bait on the guy. So what do they do? Extend the salary dump guy! Ballsy, but stupid.
Robertson and Willis were 2 of the best innings eaters before 2008.
Innings eater is just another term for a guy that pitches just better than a guy you can call up from AAA, but with worse upside. If you’re spending 9 million annually for many years on an innings eater, you’re wasting some serious money. I mean, think of what it implies:
1. Durable
2. Limited upside
3. League average ERA
Useful? Definitely. A guy you want to lock up for years and years? Why? They’re exactly the kind of contracts that hinder teams, and if you look at successful teams (Cardinals, Twins, Red Sox, Angels, etc) none of them are wasting lots of money on innings eaters. If they can afford it, they throw in some extra money for a pitcher who is above average. If they can’t, they sign short-term guys for little cost or test out guys from their farm.
Signing inning eaters to long term deals seems like the perfect recipe for failure, in my opinion. I mean, wasn’t that the argument for Zito? Not dominant, but durable?
30 starts per year? Did you look at his player page? I used to follow him as a Tiger fan and fantasy player, and I seem to remember him always battling some kind of injury, so I took a look at his player page. He pitched more games than I thought, but topped 190 innings only once (2006.) The DL tool confirmed my memory of constant injuries.
His FIPs and xFIPs were nice compared to ERA and ERA is a crude stat, but it makes me wonder how many years of huge FIP/ERA discrepancies need to go by before one starts to doubt if those FIPs are accurate reflections of his pitching.
Every year though he kept gradually throwing more and more. Yeah he only topped 200 once but that was in 2006 before he signed the contract. And it’s not like he was throwing 100IP or something he was around 180 or 190, which isn’t that low considering he was only 21 and 22 his first few years. Look at Felix, he was around the same age as Bonderman when he started and he didn’t reach 200IP till his 4th year just like Bonderman. Plus it’s not like he signed him to a HUGE contract, 4 years 38 million isn’t bad for a guy that just posted a 6.1 WAR, helped carry you to the World Series and just turned 24.
True.
hey steve, re the semi-colons, I see your point and I guess it is a good one.
so, the last time Kenny tried to hustle the Tigers, we wound up with fucking alex rios…
As a Tiger fan, it’s not unsettling for me to see Granderson go and how the off-season has went. We needed to make some major roster changes to make the team more competitive game to game. I think we got some good players (Jackson, Schlereth, Coke) in return for Granderson. I got sick of having to defend why we should keep him in the line-up everyday when he obviously can’t hit lefties. He should be a part-time player and should be moved to the bottom of half of the batting order. His .319 OBP as a 1st hitter was the worst in the American League. He turned into a pop-out/strike out machine. His IFFB was 13% and K’s was 22% of the time. So 35% of the time he was an easy out.
IMO, he’s a flawed player and was part of the gaping hole in the line-up that went from the 7th hitter (Inge) up and around to the 2nd hitter (Polanco). We need guys who have better OBP’s at the top of the order. All Grandy could do was hit home runs and play somewhat decent Defense. IMO, his arm was too weak to be a CF at Comerica Park.
In effect,the Tigers would have traded Granderson to the Yankees for Damon. Not a good trade.
Sure, if you want to ignore the 4 other players they got.
As a Cardinal fan, I would say outside of Wain and Carp the rotation has been full of ‘innings eaters’.
The Tigers knew about the economy and their projected 2010 payroll when they made the decision to let Magglio’s option vest. If the Tigers’ offseason was really about the money, they were extremely short-sighted in letting him get the requisite AB’s. More likely, I think they felt that they got a lot of value out of the Granderson deal and have since used the savings in a way that they think is wise.
Let’s see how many people cancel their sports package on cable or dish. The product that MLB puts out, or the NBA is not worth the extra 40 or 50 bucks a month. Pay off your credit cards or your health care before paying to watch the games. It’s not worth it. PERIOD!