The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

What follows does not constitute the most rigorous of statistical analyses. Rather, it’s designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have considerably more enthusiasm for than actual knowledge of the collegiate game — a shorthand means, that is, towards detecting which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

As in other editions of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles recently introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: KATOH+ for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and KATOH- (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each. Here are the types of player: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. And here are the conferences: the Atlantic Coast (ACC), the Pacific 12 (Pac-12), and the Southeastern (SEC). As for why I’ve chosen those three conferences, it’s because they featured the most teams collectively included in D1 Baseball’s top-25 preseason rankings.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current as of Tuesday and may not include midweek games.

ACC
Top Batter
Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Brendan McKay, LHP Louisville (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Starter
Benton Moss, RHP, N. Carolina (Sr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Will Craig	Wake Forest	So	1B	134	9.7%	.389	.422	12.5%	.241	.346	156
2	David Thompson	Miami	Jr	3B	133	7.5%	.330	.340	11.0%	.215	.338	145
3	Matt Thaiss	Virginia	So	C	114	6.1%	.290	.329	10.5%	.192	.336	137
4	DJ Stewart	Florida St.	Jr	LF	138	19.6%	.319	.293	19.3%	.212	.332	130
5	Logan Ratledge	NC State	Sr	2B	124	11.3%	.248	.398	13.7%	.177	.343	129
6	Alex Perez	Virginia Tech	Sr	2B	136	10.3%	.233	.378	12.9%	.173	.342	128
7	Nate Mondou	Wake Forest	So	2B	139	13.7%	.246	.392	15.2%	.180	.343	128
8	Kel Johnson	Georgia Tech	Fr	RF	106	27.4%	.326	.492	24.2%	.202	.351	126
9	Brendon Hayden	Virginia Tech	Sr	1B/DH	132	17.4%	.264	.358	17.8%	.186	.339	125
10	Preston Palmeiro	NC State	So	1B	118	7.6%	.171	.441	11.4%	.145	.347	122

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Brendan McKay	Louisville	Fr	LHP	33.0	125	39.2%	8.8%	32.6%	9.1%	68
2	Sarkis Ohanian	Duke	Sr	RHP	24.0	93	34.4%	1.1%	28.6%	6.4%	72
3	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	22.1	84	38.1%	8.3%	30.3%	9.0%	74
4	Benton Moss	N. Carolina	Sr	RHP	27.2	118	32.2%	5.1%	28.0%	7.6%	76
5	Kenny Koplove	Duke	Jr	RHP	13.2	61	41.0%	11.5%	30.3%	9.9%	76
6	T.J. Zeuch	Pittsburgh	Fr	RHP	41.1	170	29.4%	4.7%	26.9%	7.0%	78
7	Matt Pidich	Pittsburgh	So	RHP	15.2	61	37.7%	8.2%	28.8%	9.1%	78
8	Jesse Adams	Boston Col.	Jr	LHP	22.2	98	33.7%	8.2%	28.4%	8.9%	79
9	Alec Bettinger	Virginia	So	RHP	24.0	104	31.7%	5.8%	27.4%	8.0%	79
10	Nathan Kirby	Virginia	Jr	LHP	44.2	189	32.8%	11.1%	29.6%	10.3%	79

Notes
Louisville freshman left-hander Brendan McKay doesn’t technically qualify as a starter by the arbitrary criterion established by the author for the purposes of this exercise — i.e. that a pitcher must have recorded half his appearances in a starting capacity. He’s made only three starts in 10 appearances. He has assumed the school’s Saturday starting role in recent weeks, however, and there’s little indication that he’ll concede possession of it. This past Saturday against Georgia Tech, he parlayed his 90mph fastball, strong curve, and above-average command) into a 7:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 25 batters over 7.0 innings (box).

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
KJ Harrison, 1B/C, Oregon St. (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Chris Keck, 3B, UCLA (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Chris Keck, 3B, UCLA (Sr)

Top Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	1B/C	131	13.7%	.333	.412	14.4%	.211	.332	141
2	Lucas Erceg	California	So	3B	120	8.3%	.308	.363	10.8%	.196	.327	139
3	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B	117	11.1%	.292	.329	12.7%	.188	.323	132
4	Scott Kingery	Arizona	Jr	2B	134	6.7%	.197	.472	9.5%	.153	.339	129
5	Brett Cumberland	California	Fr	C	118	16.1%	.291	.333	16.0%	.188	.324	127
6	Chris Paul	California	Sr	1B	117	13.7%	.268	.368	14.4%	.179	.327	127
7	Kevin Kramer	UCLA	Jr	SS	127	11.0%	.219	.448	12.6%	.161	.336	126
8	Gabe Clark	Oregon St.	Jr	DH	97	14.4%	.321	.203	15.0%	.191	.313	126
9	Jeff Hendrix	Oregon St.	Jr	CF	136	11.0%	.212	.351	12.5%	.160	.326	122
10	RJ Ybarra	Arizona St.	Jr	DH/1B	91	12.1%	.240	.339	13.6%	.160	.324	120

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ryan Burr	Arizona St.	Jr	RHP	19.2	85	44.7%	10.6%	33.7%	9.5%	66
2	David Berg	UCLA	Jr	RHP	26.2	103	35.0%	2.9%	29.1%	6.7%	71
3	James Kaprielian	UCLA	Jr	RHP	46.0	179	30.7%	5.0%	27.8%	6.9%	75
4	Griffin Canning	UCLA	Fr	RHP	41.0	151	29.8%	2.6%	26.8%	6.0%	75
5	Grant Dyer	UCLA	So	RHP	24.1	92	33.7%	6.5%	27.9%	8.1%	78
6	Dylan Nelson	California	Sr	RHP	15.2	61	36.1%	8.2%	27.7%	8.7%	80
7	Bernardo Flores	USC	So	LHP	19.2	80	31.3%	6.3%	26.2%	8.1%	82
8	Brent Wheatley	USC	Jr	RHP	35.2	149	26.8%	6.0%	24.8%	7.6%	85
9	Garrett Cleavinger	Oregon	Jr	LHP	13.2	55	36.4%	14.5%	27.4%	10.3%	85
10	Matt Bower	Washington St.	Jr	LHP	25.1	109	32.1%	12.8%	27.5%	10.5%	85

Notes
Arizona shortstop Kevin Newman (138 PA, 113 KATOH+) has received greater attention among the school’s pair of junior middle infielders — in no small part, probably, due to the consecutive batting titles he won in the Cape Cod League — but it’s second baseman Scott Kingery who’s actually produced the more impressive and (maybe) predictive numbers this college season. With regard to Pac-12 pitchers, if one has some interest in identifying the best of them, a UCLA game appears to be a strong place to begin. Two of the school’s starters (freshman Griffin Canning and junior James Kaprielian) and two relievers (junior David Berg and sophomore Grant Dyer) all appear among the conference’s top-five pitchers by the methodology used here.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Alex Lange, RHP, LSU (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top Starter
Alex Lange, RHP, LSU (Fr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	117	16.2%	.367	.385	16.3%	.223	.338	139
2	Jared Foster	LSU	Sr	2B/OF	94	14.9%	.386	.339	15.5%	.218	.333	136
3	Kyle Martin	So. Carolina	Sr	1B	126	7.1%	.265	.374	10.1%	.185	.337	133
4	Alex Bregman	LSU	Jr	SS	135	3.0%	.252	.266	7.1%	.182	.325	132
5	Andrew Benintendi	Arkansas	So	CF	120	15.0%	.289	.307	15.4%	.193	.330	126
6	Mikey White	Alabama	Jr	SS	114	14.9%	.263	.436	15.4%	.181	.342	126
7	Zack Bowers	Georgia	Jr	C/1B	123	26.0%	.320	.417	22.8%	.207	.341	125
8	Logan Taylor	Texas A&M	Jr	LF	106	13.2%	.261	.375	14.3%	.178	.336	124
9	Casey Hughston	Alabama	So	RF	115	20.0%	.268	.466	18.7%	.183	.345	123
10	Christin Stewart	Tennessee	Jr	LF	104	19.2%	.301	.310	18.2%	.192	.331	122

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Alex Lange	LSU	Fr	RHP	45.0	172	33.7%	8.7%	30.3%	9.2%	76
2	Ben Bowden	Vanderbilt	So	LHP	17.2	70	37.1%	7.1%	29.5%	8.9%	78
3	Carson Fulmer	Vanderbilt	Jr	RHP	42.0	173	34.7%	12.1%	31.0%	10.9%	79
4	Daniel Brown	Miss. St.	So	LHP	14.1	58	37.9%	8.6%	29.1%	9.4%	80
5	Brady Bramlett	Ole Miss	So	RHP	40.1	163	28.8%	4.9%	26.7%	7.3%	81
6	Cole Lipscomb	Auburn	So	RHP	31.2	127	32.3%	8.7%	28.6%	9.2%	81
7	Preston Johnson	So. Carolina	Jr	RHP	8.1	31	41.9%	3.2%	28.0%	8.6%	81
8	Wil Crowe	So. Carolina	So	RHP	44.1	179	30.2%	7.8%	27.8%	8.7%	81
9	Scott Weathersby	Ole Miss	Sr	RHP	19.2	69	33.3%	5.8%	27.5%	8.5%	82
10	Bobby Poyner	Florida	Sr	LHP	26.1	100	28.0%	1.0%	25.4%	6.4%	82

Notes
Vanderbilt features — in compelling junior Walker Buehler (23.1 IP, 89 KATOH-), other compelling junior Carson Fulmer (42.0 IP, 79 KATOH-), and sophomore John Kilichowski (24.2 IP, 90 KATOH-) — three of the top starters by the (maybe) predictive numbers in the SEC. Red-shirt freshman Jordan Sheffield (35.2 IP, 108 KATOH-), meanwhile, receives considerable attention for his velocity. None has been as effective on a per-batter basis, however, as sophomore left-hander Ben Bowden. Bowden sits at 91-94 mph with his fastball. In his most recent appearance, he struck out two of four Wofford batters for the save (box).