The Top-Five Cleveland Prospects by Projected WAR

Yesterday, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Cleveland. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Cleveland’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Cleveland system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the Cleveland system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

t2. Tyler Naquin, OF (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.244	.290	.353	84	0.6

Naquin receives a positional adjustment of about -3 runs — or, basically a hybrid between the center- and corner-outfield adjustment. That’s actually not particularly representative of his minor-league defensive track record (he’s played almost exclusively center field), but it is representative of Naquin’s defensive reputation. As McDaniel characterizes him — or at least characterizes sentiment about him — as an “outfield tweener.” In the event that he’s capable of playing an average major-league center field, he’d merit about another 5 runs, rendering him roughly a one-win player.

t2. Roberto Perez, C (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
415	.198	.274	.290	64	0.6

Perez has always been regarded as a defensively capable catcher, and that’s what the numbers also suggest in a limited sample: in roughly 30 games last year with the parent club, Perez produced about half a win according both to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Offensively, his reputation has been less well regarded — which sentiment his projected batting average alone would appear to bear out. Perez has typically recorded double-digit walk rates in the minors, though. That doesn’t always translate to the highest level, but is at least a skill by means of which he might transform himself into a top backup and/or second-division starter.

t2. James Ramsey, OF (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.227	.297	.359	86	0.6

As McDaniel notes, Ramsey was a surprise first-round selection out of Florida State in 2012. When it’s St. Louis doing the surprising, however — whose which club’s drafts have produced an impressive collection of useful major leaguers — it carries more authority than it might for another organization. As a senior, Ramsey finished third among Division One hitters in total walks also third in on-base percentage. He’s retained those two skills throughout his minor-league career, more or less. Steamer’s forecast for Ramsey, though — which includes a 8.1% walk rate and .297 OBP — suggests that he might not be able to reproduce those numbers in the majors. At least not right away.

t2. Giovanny Urshela, 3B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.232	.265	.362	77	0.6

Work by Chris Mitchell on his KATOH methodology for predicting major-league performance with minor-league stats suggests that age relative to level, strikeout rate (where lower is better), and isolate slugging are among the most important indicators of a prospect’s future success. As just a 22-year-old last year, Urshela produced a strikeout rate and isolated-power figure of 11.9% and .197, respectively — both marks above-average relative to the International League. That’s a promising develop — one detected by Steamer, as well. Also of note: Urshela, who’s regarded as an above-average fielder, receives only the default positional adjustment for third basemen here. In reality, he’s probably worth another +3 to +5 runs.

t2. Tony Wolters, C (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
415	.217	.269	.297	62	0.6

While the process is different, Tony Wolters’ product — so far as the projections are concerned, at least — is roughly the same as Roberto Perez’s. Both are catchers and, as a result, the offensive standards for respectability are decidedly lower. On the defensive side, Perez actually wins by a little thanks to his brief major-league experience. (Plus, Steamer has no way of incorporating Wolters’ place on the catcher learning curve.) Offensively, Wolters relies on contact and batted-ball success where Perez relies on taking his walks. The results are roughly the same: about half a win over the course of a season.

1. Francisco Lindor, SS (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.234	.282	.329	75	0.9

In terms of Cleveland prospects who feature some combination both of future value and also present talent, there’s basically Lindor and then everyone else. It’s fitting, then, that these Cleveland prospect projections feature Lindor first in the organization and then literally five other guys all tied for second. If Lindor’s projection seems underwhelming relative to his prospect status, it’s essential to remember that he enters just his age-21 season. Here’s an entire list of major leaguers who played at age 21 or under in 2014 and also qualified for the batting title: Xander Bogaerts. Only three 22-year-olds qualified and one of them was Mike Trout. That he’s possibly worth even a win this season is a big, big deal. Pretty, pretty, pretty big.