The Top-Five Padres Prospects by Projected WAR

On Wednesday, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the San Diego Padres. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not San Diego’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Padres system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the Padres system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

5. Austin Hedges, C (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
415	.206	.251	.301	58	0.3

For a player such as Hedges, whose value is tied much more closely to his defensive than offensive skills, Steamer’s projections are likely to skew towards the conservative side. For minor leaguers, Steamer’s defensive forecasts are based largely (if not entirely) on positional adjustment — which, that’s generous for catchers, anyway. As McDaniel notes, though, Hedges is a candidate to save a non-negligible quantity of runs beyond that. Adding five runs (0.5 WAR) to Hedges’ projections wouldn’t be entirely irresponsible.

4. Matt Wisler, RHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
150	7.4	3.1	1.0	4.04	0.7

Given both his stuff and age — and the fact that he’s already recorded almost an entire season at Triple-A as just as 21-year-old — Wisler appears to offer considerable promise. Indeed, McDaniel rates him as an above-average future major leaguer. That version of the future, however — according to Steamer, at least — probably isn’t 2015. Despite his stuff, Wisler produced basically just a league-average strikeout rate in the Pacific Coast League last season. It’s entirely possible that he’ll improve upon that figure in 2015. For the moment, however, it doesn’t translate excellently to the major-league level.

3. Taylor Lindsey, 2B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.223	.273	.327	73	0.8

Lindsey’s future has typically been more optimistically forecast by projection systems than scouts. The latter party see a lack of athleticism, questions about even his second-base defense, and power that’s average at best; the former, a player with above-average contact skills who has consistently played a position with a positive adjustment in the WAR calculation. In reality, he’s all those things. What he is for 2015, probably, is an option for the Padres should Jedd Gyorko prove injured or ineffective.

2. Cory Spangenberg, 2B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.245	.286	.341	80	0.8

Another option should Gyorko prove injured or ineffective is Spangenberg. He profiles a bit differently than Lindsey, it would appear — less power, more speed — but the results are similar. One note of interest regarding Spangenberg is the relative optimism regarding his batted-ball profile. Where Lindsey is projected to post a .244 BABIP, Spangenberg is projected for a .302 figure. That’s roughly average, yes, but better than to be expected from a player with a (very) limited major-league resume playing in a park that suppresses hits.

1. Alex Dickerson, 1B/OF (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.242	.286	.384	90	1.2

Dickerson is not the top prospect in the Padres system. Indeed, he’s ranked last by McDaniel among those players currently within the organization whose future value is a 40 or better. His hitting ability is his main asset. One notes, for example, that his 90 wRC+ is the best among those hitting prospects listed here. Were he a middle infielder, that would be promising. Dickerson isn’t one of those, however, but rather a corner outfielder or (more probably, according to McDaniel) first baseman. His projection here is based on him playing an average version of the former.