The Top-Five Royals Prospects by Projected WAR

Over the weekend, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Kansas City Royals. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Kansas City’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Royals system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

Below are the top-five prospects in the Kansas City system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

5. Brian Flynn, LHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
50	7.4	2.6	0.9	3.74	0.2

At points during the 2013 season, the left-handed Flynn appeared to be developing into a legitimate candidate for a major-league starting role. He produced strikeout and walk rates of 28.7% and 3.5%, respectively, over his first four starts at Double-A before earning a promotion to Triple-A, where he proceeded more or less in the same fashion, if with some of the decline in his rates that one might expect from facing more difficult competition. He hasn’t exhibited that same sort of ability in the majors yet, however. Traded to Kansas City this offseason in exchange for Aaron Crow, he has the potential to become one of the Royals’ large collection of former starters who’ve found considerable success in the bullpen.

4. Hunter Dozier, 3B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.222	.283	.324	71	0.3

The next edition of FanGraphs Audio featuring Kiley McDaniel will be published later this afternoon. In that episode, McDaniel notes that the biggest Texas universities — the University of Texas and also Texas A&M — have failed in recent years to attract the best talent from their own state. The case of Hunter Dozier serves as an illustrative case. A graduate of Denton High School (in Denton, TX), Dozier attended Stephen F Austin State University in Nacogdoches — from which school he was ultimately selected eighth overall in the 2013 draft. The top draftee out of either Texas or Texas A&M that year, meanwhile, was right-handed reliever Corey Knebel (out of Texas) at 39th overall; the top batter, Texas A&M shortstop Mikey Reynolds not until 163rd overall. Dozier isn’t a shortstop any longer like he was as a collegiate. He offers a combination of developling power and defensive skill, however, which already renders him something better than replacement level.

3. Brandon Finnegan, LHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
50	8.7	3.2	0.8	3.50	0.4

Finnegan was used as a reliever last year at both Double-A Northwest Arkansas and then with the parent club following a September promotion. He worked as a starter in college, though, and then also at High-A Wilmington. That’s the role he’s expected to occupy this year, as well, upon his return to the Texas League. He’s projected as a reliever here mostly because of his major-league resume. One would anticipate the rate forecasts — in particular, the strikeout rate — to be less excellent in a starting capacity. In either case, he enters just his age-22 season and the projection remains favorable for a young pitcher with so little professional experience.

2. Sean Manaea, LHP (Profile)

IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	WAR
150	6.7	4.7	1.0	4.72	0.5

They’re not precise comps for each other, but Manaea’s projection — and the variables informing it — nevertheless bears more than a passing resemblance to Finnegan’s (above). He’s young, performed at points in college, was injured at points in college, and possesses little in the way of a professional track record. Unlike Finnegan, Manaea has worked exclusively as a starter since having been selected by Kansas City — and therefore, unlike Finnegan, is forecast here as a starter, too. The projection complements McDaniel’s own comments regarding Manaea — namely, that he’s exhibited considerable promise, but also oughtn’t be regarded as prepared for a major-league role. Some kind of innings sample in the upper minors — if he’s able to continue his above-average performances — would positively influence his projections.

1. Christian Colon, 2B/3B (Profile)

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
550	.253	.298	.348	82	0.8

This coming year represents Colon’s age-26 season. Accordingly, one oughtn’t expect a huge spike in development. And having recorded roughly 1,000 plate appearances at Triple-A, Colon has more or less exhibited the entirely of his skill set. He lacks even average power but has also produced strikeout rates below 10% while also occupying a place on the more difficult end of the defensive spectrum. That creates a high ceiling for Colon and renders him at the very least a bench player of considerable value should one of the Royals’ infielders get injured.