The Truth About Rod Barajas
At one point last season, the Pirates were 63-47, right in the thick of the National League playoff race. They were in excellent position to finish at .500 or above for the first time since 1992; they just needed to win 18 of their remaining 52 games. They won 16 of their remaining 52 games and really Pirates’d everything up. What happened to the Pirates? Well, you can’t blame their inability to stop the running game, according to Rod Barajas, reasonably:
“Is (allowing stolen bases) the reason why we’re not winning? Absolutely not,” Barajas said. “The first half we weren’t throwing anybody out, either, and you didn’t hear anybody complaining.”
The Pirates didn’t lose because they couldn’t stop the running game, but they really couldn’t stop the running game. The numbers say that Michael McKenry threw out 13 of 74 would-be base-stealers, and that’s bad. The numbers say that Rod Barajas threw out six of 99 would-be base-stealers, and that’s much much worse. That’s arguably the worst throwing season in catcher history. Of course, a lot of this is out of the catchers’ hands, but they’re the ones who have to wear the statistics. Rod Barajas has to wear some humiliating statistics.
I was curious to learn more about Barajas’ 2012 successes in the throwing department. If he was having so much trouble gunning runners down, what on earth did the runners who made outs look like? Of note is that Barajas doesn’t have a track record of having a pathetic arm. In his first year as a professional, he threw out 34 of 74 runners. His success rate in the minors is 38%. His success rate in the majors previous to 2012 was 31%. It wasn’t entirely Barajas’ fault that opponents ran wild in 2012, but still I craved video of his infrequent triumphs.
I noted that Barajas threw out six runners. Here is a list of relevant information:
- April 13, Nate Schierholtz, James McDonald pitching
- April 30, Michael Bourn, James McDonald pitching
- July 6, Justin Christian, Juan Cruz pitching
- July 13, Nyjer Morgan, Brad Lincoln pitching
- August 5, Ryan Ludwick, A.J. Burnett pitching
- August 27, Jon Jay, A.J. Burnett pitching
I loaded all the video prepared to make .gifs so I could write something about Barajas or the runners or both. While conducting research, though, I stumbled upon an unexpected and astonishing discovery. I still made .gifs, and we’ll proceed in order, beginning with April 13.
April 13
This is just a clean caught-steal. Barajas caught an offspeed pitch and threw a strike to the side of second base, where Josh Harrison applied a tag to Nate Schierholtz. Nothing special. You might remember this game as the time Matt Cain threw a one-hitter, and the one hit was a single by James McDonald in the top of the sixth. James McDonald is a career .097 hitter.
April 30
It’s a terrible throw on an apparent attempted hit-and-run. Rod Barajas still throws Michael Bourn out, but replays show that the call was wrong, and that Bourn was actually safe. Subtract one from Barajas’ success column. This is what it looks like when Michael Bourn complains and Rod Barajas watches on:
Barajas doesn’t look like a man triumphant. This is because he was not one. He was a man fortunate.
July 6
Perfect throw. Great job, Rod Barajas!
July 13
Nearly perfect throw. Great job, Rod Barajas!
August 5
Wait, that can’t be right, the numbers credit this caught-steal to Rod Barajas. Barajas wasn’t in any way involved, as this was a successful pickoff by A.J. Burnett. Ryan Ludwick would reach base again in this game, drawing a walk in the ninth, but he didn’t try to run anywhere. Ludwick made one out on the bases. It had nothing to do with Rod Barajas, but credit was given to Barajas anyway, mistakenly.
August 27
Holy crap, it happened again.
In 1969, Joe Torre threw out six would-be base-stealers, while three base-stealers were successful. Rod Barajas is credited with having thrown out six of 99 would-be base-stealers for the Pirates in 2012. Among catcher-seasons with at least 40 attempted steals, Barajas caught the lowest rate of runners since at least 1956. But when you take a closer look at Barajas’ six successes, some things stand out. One was the direct result of a blown call. Two were pickoffs that didn’t even directly involve Barajas in the play. From looking at Barajas’ six successful caught-steals, we can identify, in truth, three successful caught-steals.
Making Barajas and the Pirates’ pitching staff out to be even worse. Of course, for a proper evaluation, we’d have to look at the 93 successful steals against Barajas, to check for blown calls in the other direction. I’m not personally interested in doing that right now, and I’m guessing I never will be. This is where I’m content to leave off: in 2012, by the numbers, Rod Barajas had maybe the worst catcher-throwing season ever. And there’s reason to believe the numbers are skewed in Barajas’ favor, masking an only uglier truth.
What happened to Rod Barajas wasn’t all Rod Barajas’ fault. I’d say it wasn’t even mostly Rod Barajas’ fault, since a slow pitcher is a slow pitcher and no catcher can throw hard enough to make up for that. But what happened to Rod Barajas has also been understated by the statistics. It’s almost impossible to believe. The whole situation in the first place is almost impossible to believe.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Maybe you could look at the worst base stealer (by % success) who was successful against Barajas, and then see whether or not you can tell how a bad runner succeeded against that particular battery.
Do who do we get ahold of, to get those 2 CS that he wasn’t involved with, to be accuratized in the official stat books? That’s what’s bugging my mind now.
The CS stat for a catcher is simply the number of players caught stealing while he happens to be behind the dish, regardless of whether he threw the runner out or not. Because a pick-off counts as a CS for the runner, the Law of Conservation of Baseball Statistics (yes, I made it up) mandates that somebody be credited it for it on the other side; the CS doesn’t just vanish. Since middle infielders and pitchers don’t get credited with a CS, the only player who can receive credit for the CS is the catcher. That’s my theory, anyway.
Yeah, this is how it has always worked. You’d have to “correct” every catcher’s statistics.
If your interested Baseball-Reference spilts pick-offs from CSs.
I’m pretty sure a pick-off and a caught stealing are separate. If the runner dives back to first and gets tagged out then it’s a pick off. If he takes off for second after a pick off throw and is tagged out on the bases then it’s a caught stealing.
who do we tell about this!
Wow, this is kind of hilarious. What are these scorekeepers doing?
As other have explained as least partially, catchers are credited with CS even if he did not throw the runner out himself. This is a really dumb rule, but the scorekeepers are following the official rulebook. If a runner is picked off going back to 1B, it is a pickoff credited to the pitcher. If the pitcher throws over and the runner goes to 2B instead, and is tagged out trying to reach 2B, it is a CS and by the rules goes to the catcher.
They should change the rule so that it is a pitcher-credited pickoff if the catcher is never involved. But that is why the scorekeepers have done what they have.
That brings up this ultimatum. What happens when a runner is thrown out at home? Is that a pick off? Or a CS by catcher? THE WORLD MAY EXPLODE!!
But how many stolen base attempts were credit as “successful” due to blown calls? If you are going to count the Bourn caught stealing as not a legitimate caught stealing, maybe you need to see if the umpires called any runners safe against Barajas when he actually threw them out…
(just playing devil’s advocate)
read the article.. next to last paragraph, middle to bottom area.
I’m guessing all this has something to do with Russell Martin being a Pirate now.
Maybe it’s the staff’s fault, in which case Russel Martin might be nearly as bad as Barajas was.
McKenry was at 18% and he has a very average arm. Having watched nearly every game, Barajas bares quite a bit of the blame.
The remaining blame goes to the front office for its plan to de-emphasize holding runners. In June Dave Cameron was praising the idea as it wasn’t costing them runs. Later in the year teams figured out they could run without risk (mainly StL and MIL) and the increased frequency led to more runs against.
That said, the implosion of Bedard and JMac and Walker missing 30 games were the biggest culprits in the collapse.
How did the umpire blow that Micheal Bourne call? That wasn’t even close.
Looked like a great call to me!
Yeah, same here. I dunno what the issue is.
He was actually called out on a infield fly.
I had good seats for the last game of the season, just down the 3B line from home, and I was kind of astonished to see how slow Rod was on the transfer. I saw the pitch, I saw the runner go, I looked back to the catcher, and he was still getting the ball out of his glove and cocking his throwing arm. That may not explain all of it, but good Lord, I’ve never seen anything so molasses-like. Well, maybe Aramis Ramirez trying to beat out a ball deep in the hole (one that 90% of MLBers would handily outrun).
The catcher does not actually have to register an assist to be credited with a ‘caught stealing’.
Barajas has a decent arm and mechanics. I’m sure it was more staff-related, sort of like some of those bad years with the Dodgers that Piazza had.
That said, Barajas is one of the most overrated catchers out there, defensively. His blocking and framing are abhorrent.
These are major league catchers you are comparing him to, not your typical high ball player. Every single catcher has at least a decent arm and good mechanics, that’s why they are in the majors.
I think your “reversal” of the two pickoffs make sense (excluding from both the numerator and denominator of the fraction) – but I don’t think you can “reverse” the one blown call and then immediately say “He only threw out of 3 out of 97 base stealers.”
If you’re going to “reverse” one of the caught stealings upon review of archive video, I think you’d have to review the other 96 “successful” steals to see if the ump blew the call the other way right?
Meaning if you are going to take away credit for that Bourn caught stealing, don’t you have to give him credit for any of the other 96 successful steals if the ump mistakenly ruled the runner safe and thereby you “reverse” the other way as well??
Just seems logical to me.
“Of course, for a proper evaluation, we’d have to look at the 93 successful steals against Barajas, to check for blown calls in the other direction.” — the article
It seems logical to me, that if you’re going to critique an article, you read it first.
I looked at Barajas’s season in perspective (the meat of that is a link to Fangraphs’ caught stealing stats which you have to sort by caught stealing yourselves because Fangraphs wants you to do a little work for yourself, what is wrong with you, when Fangraphs was a kid Fangraphs had to walk to school uphill both ways through the snow and when it ruptured its spleen shoveling the driveway it didn’t get to go to any of your fancy hospitals).
Where was I? So yeah, last year Barajas easily had the worst caught-stealing percentage ever, and the only other guy to get only six caught stealings while catching 700 innings was also Rod Barajas in 2010 with a completely different staff (except James McDonald!), suggesting it may be his fault.
Oh right, Fangraphs doesn’t print links in different colors (when Fangraphs was a link Fangraphs didn’t have any of these fancy in-line hyperlinks, Fangraphs had to feed the punchcards into the punchcard machine and wait an hour for the printout to see which other punchcards it had to feed into the punchcard machine. Sorry, I don’t know why I’m being such a curmudgeon today).
I looked at Barajas’s season in perspective: http://www.bucsdugout.com/2012/10/7/3469214/rod-barajas-sets-a-record
Catchers’ defensive stats, which you have to sort by caught stealing yourself: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=700&type=0&season=2012&month=0&season1=1960&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d
Except that’s by total CS, not by % of runners caught stealing.
Barajas 2010 6/40 = 15% (Pirates also had Doumit at 11/90 that year, yikes!)
Varitek in 2009 was 16/124 =13%
so which is worse?
Obviously those results need to be sortable by % too.
Right, Rod’s 2010 isn’t at the top for worst CS percentages — as I said in the BD post, Rod in 2012 is at the top by a mile, but second place is Josh Bard’s 2007. Just thought it was funny that he tied himself for fewest CS.
By the way Rod wasn’t on the Pirates in 2010 — the other Pirates catchers were all respectable at catching baserunners That was when I called him Dunkin’ Doumit, because America runs on Dunkin’! We thought we had it bad then, but of course things can always get worse for the Bucs.
+vote for Dunkin’ Doumit nickname.
It would be helpful in assessing catchers’ throwing to have a relative measure of how often runners attempt to steal. 6/40 sounds pretty awful, but if those 40 attempts took place over 700 innings, then opposing baserunners were hardly running wild. If runners are 34/40 over 15 games, it’s a lot worse than if runners are 34/40 over 80 games (using games as a loose proxy for stolen base opportunities, and obviously still not adjusting for how pitchers affect the running game).
I think that’s right — he caught 776 innings that year, which is a relatively small amount but even if you scale his SB numbers up by a scale of 50% (so it’s something like 51 SB in 1100-some innings) it’s quite respectable. Though if runners were stealing on him at 85%, well above the break-even point, that suggests that not enough guys were running on him.
The thing to do here would be to calculate the break-even point for SB/CS any given year, see how many runs a catcher gained/lost by catching guys and allowing stolen bases, calculating the average of that, and comparing how many runs above or below average every catcher was given the innings he caught. (If, as probably sometimes happens, the league is below the break-even point at stealing bases, this would actually penalize a guy like Yadier Molina who no one even bothers to steal on. But them’s the breaks!) But even if that’s kind of what Fangraphs’ fielding numbers for catchers do, I’m not sure how to sort them.
By any measure, Rod-B’s 2012 is unconscionably bad.
Ah, I see, go to the “Advanced” tab and sort by rSB, which only goes back to 2003. Somehow Rod-B’s 2012 is only tied for worst at -10 with Mike Piazza’s 2005. In 2010 Rod-B was at -4.
Of the three clean CS, two of them were by a Giant! And they play, what, 9 times a season. A low statistics data point about Bruce Bochy management of the running game (I always felt that way). Luckily, neither player will play for the G next year. Presumably Blanco or Pagan would have been safe.
No discussion about Rod Barajas is complete without him reminding us that “he’s a fucking catcher” and “that’s what he has to do.”
And rocking Dee Gordon like a baby
That ump should get in trouble for continuing to talk sh*t to Bourn after he blew the call.
This has nothing to do with Rod’s abysmal CS season in 2012. Any Brewers fan will admit they are sad to see Rod go. I think Gorman Thomas could have stolen a base of the Pirates last year if he came out of retirement.
I watch the Pirtaes a lot and I’m about 95% certain that Rod led the majors in foul home runs. If the foul pole in left was about 20 feet further to the left he would have hit 25 HR’s last year. It seems like the baseball gods hate Rod.
As long as he hit 15+ homers managers were gonna keep him in the lineup.
Regardless of how little else he did.
The question is, could Rod Barajas throw out Rod Barajas
Sorry Jeff – I failed to read carefully in the article above and your counterpoint to my comment is correct.
Your apology is cogent and well stated. You ruined the message board much less so than you did the Beatles.