The Twins Should Take Jose De Leon While They Can
The Dodgers want Brian Dozier, the Twins terrific second baseman. The Twins, rightfully so, want a lot for an excellent player due just $15 million in total over the next two seasons. Based on public reports, the two sides have agreed that young RHP Jose De Leon would go to Minnesota if a deal gets done, with the current stalemate surrounding what else the Dodgers would have to add to De Leon to get the Twins to make the swap. But while the Twins should obviously extract as much as they can from Andrew Friedman, they’d probably also be wise to not pass up the opportunity to acquire De Leon, since this might be their last chance to get him for a while.
Let’s start with the standard caveats; De Leon is a pitching prospect, and that makes him inherently risky. More concerning, he’s a pitching prospect who missed time last year with arm soreness, so, yeah. His most notable statistical comparison is Rich Harden, whose career could be described as frustrating. If the Twins swap Dozier for De Leon and stuff, there’s a pretty significant chance that they’ll have traded a low-cost All-Star second baseman for a guy who could spend a good chunk of his Twins career on the disabled list. Pitchers break. It’s just what they do.
But the Twins are in a position where they should probably take some risks, because they’re going to need some of these high-risk, high-reward bets to pay off in order to get them back in contention. And De Leon looks like a pretty high reward guy to land in a trade for a player who probably won’t still be in Minnesota the next time the Twins are contenders.
When Eric Longenhagen wrote up De Leon on his Dodgers list, where he ranked him as the team’s #4 prospect, he noted that De Leon has mid-rotation stuff. The lack of a dominant breaking ball is often cited as an issue, and as a primarily fastball/change-up guy, it’s easy to see De Leon having a home run problem, since his profile is reminiscent of guys like James Shields. But I think history has shown that these fastball/change-up guys are often undersold coming up the ladder, and there are reasons to think that De Leon could be a lot more than just a mid-rotation starter.
At this point, you know about the minor league numbers, which are silly. De Leon absolutely destroyed minor league hitters the last few years, with the 33% strikeout rate he posted in Triple-A last year representing the lowest mark he put up at any level since the start of 2014. As Jeff noted in writing about De Leon’s big league debut, his minor league performance made him a very unique player. I’m now going to steal a chart from Jeff’s post, to reinforce the point.
De Leon misses bats, but he also was constantly pitching ahead of hitters in the minors, because he pounded the strike zone with regularity. That kind of track record is why the projections are so high on him, with Steamer forecasting him for a 3.39 FIP in 2017, putting him in the same range as guys like Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Chris Archer. That’s not a long-term forecast either; that’s what Steamer thinks he might be right now.
But of course, he’s available in trade because he didn’t pitch like those guys when he got the call last year. The Dodgers gave him four starts down the stretch to see if he could be part of their playoff roster, and he was kind of terrible. By ERA (6.35), he was atrocious. By FIP (6.97), he was even worse. By xFIP (5.20), he was still pretty awful. He walked too many guys and posted a below average strikeout rate, so the only thing he carried over from his Triple-A line was his home run problem.
So, the projections think he could be terrific, but to buy into them, you have to put a lot of weight on minor league numbers and very little weight on big league numbers. That’s a tough sell. Except, if you dig into his Major League performance a bit more, there is some real reason for optimism there as well.
As we all know, results data requires pretty big samples to become useful, but process data becomes informative a lot more quickly. De Leon’s results data is bad, but there’s at least one piece of process data that comes from his big league stint that should encourage the Twins to make a deal. Let’s take a look at a leaderboard.
| Name | Z-Contact% |
|---|---|
| Steven Wright | 77% |
| Max Scherzer | 78% |
| Rich Hill | 79% |
| Jose De Leon | 80% |
| Mike Montgomery | 80% |
| Clayton Kershaw | 81% |
| R.A. Dickey | 81% |
| Yu Darvish | 81% |
| German Marquez | 82% |
| Alex Reyes | 82% |
The hardest pitcher in baseball to make contact on in-zone swings was a knuckleballer, which makes plenty of sense, since knuckleballs are weird. The other two guys to post in-zone contact rates below 80% were aces, including the NL Cy Young Award winner. The best pitcher in baseball is at 81%, tied with another knuckleballer. Then there’s Darvish, who has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, followed by a couple of highly-ranked prospects, including one of the game’s best young arms.
And in the middle of that pack is De Leon. Again, 17 innings, so don’t rush to crazy conclusions or anything, but it’s really hard to fake the ability to miss bats with pitches in the strike zone. Guys who can do this are almost always really good, unless they can’t throw strikes, which is Mike Montgomery’s problem. Montgomery might be a warning sign that not every pitcher who misses bats in the zone is good, but his 45% Zone% as a starter is by far the lowest of any of the guys on this list; all of the other guys are up around 50 to 55%.
And De Leon’s minor league numbers suggest that strike throwing isn’t really going to be a problem for him. This is a guy who has consistently pounded the strike zone his entire career, and even in his big league struggles, he threw more pitches in the zone than Darvish did. We shouldn’t be too concerned about De Leon’s ability to throw strikes, and even in his lousy big league audition, he showed an elite ability to miss bats on those pitches.
So let’s go back to that Shields comparison. Back in 2006, Shields ranked as the #10 prospect in the International League, with Baseball America writing the following about him.
No pitching prospect in the league did more to raise his prospect stock than Shields, who was relatively unknown before his a solid Double-A season and strong Arizona Fall League showing in 2005. He breezed through the IL in just 10 starts before becoming a mainstay in Tampa Bay’s rotation. Projected as a mid-rotation starter or setup man, Shields pounds the bottom of the zone, throwing strikes and inducing ground balls. He challenges batters with an above-average 89-93 mph sinker and keeps them off balance with his plus changeup. He uses his curveball, an average pitch at times, to set up his other offerings.
The groundball thing is different, since De Leon is a flyball guy, but the repertoires were basically the same, as was the expectation of this kind of pitcher being a mid-rotation guy. And when Shields got to the big leagues after destroying Triple-A hitters by striking them all out and not walking anyone, he struggled a bit in his rookie year, running a 108 ERA- thanks to a more normal BB/K ratio and some problems when hitters made contact.
But then, in 2007, Shields stopped walking guys again, and even without an elite strikeout rate — the lack of a breaking ball makes it harder to put away good big league hitters — Shields put up a four win season, the beginning of an eight year run as one of the game’s best pitchers. By controlling the strike zone, Shields showed you don’t necessarily need a dynamite breaking ball to pitch at the front of a rotation, even if a fastball/change-up combination means you give up some dingers sometimes.
Shields, of course, is just one data point, and not every pitcher like this turns out as well. But De Leon is the kind of guy whose stock could skyrocket next year, especially if he comes to camp healthy and wins a job in the Dodgers rotation. It’s not hard to imagine a guy with his strike throwing skills and ability to limit in-zone contact taking off like Shields did in 2007, and quickly becoming a guy the Dodgers just don’t want to trade.
In swapping Dozier for De Leon (and whatever else they can get), the Twins would be turning a relatively safe asset into a risky one, but De Leon probably has more upside than one might think just based on his repertoire. Change-up guys who miss bats without a big breaking ball are often underrated as prospects, and if the Twins are confident he’s beyond the arm problems that limited him in 2016, he could quickly become their best pitcher.
Even if they’re not sold on his long-term value, giving him 160 innings next year to see what he can do could help them create an asset that would have even more value in trade next year than Dozier has now, and swapping a short-term second baseman for a long-term pitcher could give them the ability to make a pair of trades that significantly boost their organizational standing, like the Braves did when they went from Jason Heyward to Shelby Miller to Dansby Swanson and friends.
I get why the Twins are driving a hard bargain for Dozier. He’s really valuable, thanks to his performance and his contract. But De Leon is exactly the kind of guy the Twins should be trying to add to their organization, and if they wait too long, he might not be available again until he’s out of their price range. The Twins are in a position where taking risks makes sense, and De Leon is a risk worth taking.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
They’d have two pitchers named Jose primed to breakout.
both are from Puerto Rico too.
And if he’s with the Twins, he has a chance to duplicate the won-loss records of the first Jose DeLeon.
It’ll be fascinating to see what Dozier fetches, if he is indeed dealt. The Twins would be wise not to ask too much to the point where the Dodgers move on. Turner-Seager-Dozier-A-Gon would be a pretty lethal infield. In this inflated trade market, it’ll be interesting to see this one play out.
No other team wants a second baseman who hits like Dozier at $7 million per year?
Jose De Leon is damaged goods. It’s not an elbow, it’s his __shoulder__. Tell the Dodgers to call them back when they agree that Javier Alvarez and Alex Guerrero are fair compensation for Brian Dozier.
Alex Guerrero?
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA you have no clue what the hell you’re talking about
I assume you mean Alex Verdugo, in which case I agree. At very least De Leon isn’t nearly enough.
Yes, thank you that’s exactly who I meant.
I’m going to assume he also meant Yadier Alvarez, and no, he’s not going anywhere.
Verdugo and Alvarez is a serious overpay. De Leon, Calhoun, and someone not named Verdugo, Alvarez, and Bellinger should be more than enough.
Javier Alvarez?
I guess two guys that don’t play pro baseball are fair then, LOL.
Ouch!
Yadier Alvarez and Alex Verdugo.
You’re a dreamer.
A 47 year old middle infielder and a horrible international signing? Sign me up! How can we get a hold of Javier Alvarez?
Disagree. The Twins should ask for the sun and the moon for Dozier. He’s too good of a player not to.
If the Twins don’t trade Dozier, it’s not the end of the world for them. De Leon is a good start to a trade package from the Dodgers, and it would be great to have a second Jose Berrios to hedge your bets with. But it should rightfully take a second B/B+ prospect to get their attention in addition to a couple of C+ ones to seal the deal.
De Leon should be a deal killer for the Twins. Hold onto Dozier. The Twins may be as good this year as they were bad last year. No one saw that debacle coming. They have some stud talents who could break out and everyone but Dozier sucked last year.
The Twins will find a market for Dozier later if they again perform poorly.
And what if Dozier regresses?
If De leon is the “prize” I wouldn’t worry about it. De leon is a dime-a-dozen pitching “prospect”. His ceiling is being a fourth starter for a couple of years and only one out of twenty Jose De leons reach that ceiling.
If Dozier regresses to the mean, he’s still the 3-5 WAR second baseman he was in 2014 and 2015. For reference, the Dodgers haven’t had a 4 WAR second baseman this century.
I think it would be great if the Twins traded Dozier for De Leon. But there also needs t be a pretty good secondary prospect involved.
Regresses to what? 30-35 home runs and an .840 ops? That is only worth one good prospect that comes with a fair amount of risk? I would wait till the trade deadline this upcoming year. Who knows? Maybe the Twins will be in the playoff hunt this year like two years ago, that division continues to weaken.
If De Leon was possibly going to be THAT good, Friedman wouldn’t trade him.
I’m not Wade Davis, but if I were, I’d be like “Oh, really, ya don’t say. Friedman would never trade a young pitcher that turns into a star, huh?”
The Dodgers don’t have any room in the rotation. They’re already paying Brandon McCarthy $10 million a year to be a swingman.
They have the same pitchers they had last year.
Q: Did they have room in their rotation last year?
A: Yes.
De Leon started four games last season.
They might see Brock Stewart in the same light and be much higher on Yadier Alvarez than either of them. That would make De Leon, who still CAN be that good, a very, very valuable trade asset.
Dozier should be worth maybe 8 bWAR over the next two years. It seems that other trades that are trading away that much future value – Gomez/Friers for example, have brought back more than a future #3/4 starter with durability concerns and missed a few months last year with shoulder soreness. I think the Twins are right to want more than De Leon.
/reads article laying out all the reasons a pitcher could be expected to be much more than a #3/#4 starter and thus is a good trade acquisition, and then attempts to rebut article’s conclusion that the pitcher is a good trade acquisition by assuming the pitcher is a only going to be a #3/#4 starter.
Wut? If you assume that’s what De Leon is, then I don’t think Dave would argue that the Twins should hold out for more. His whole point is that De Leon is more than that, though.
The Twins are stupid if they take De Leon in the deal. His shoulder is fried.
Well, that’s a fear.
you are stupid and should never post on this website again.
I was under the impression that after I paid for membership, I wouldn’t see these kinds of commemts….
On what basis do you conclude De Leon’s “shoulder is fried.” (A) If it was, why would the Twins accept him as the centerpiece of the deal? By all accounts, the impasse concerns what additional prospects will move; (B) If JDL’s shoulder was fried, what did the Dodgers have to gain by making a special move to add him to the 40 man so that he could pitch meaningful games in September?; (C) This trade, like all trades, would only go through if JDL passed a physical.
You don’t seem to grasp the nature of shoulder injuries. It’s not like the elbow. There is no sudden “pop”. It’s a process of progressive degeneration. De Leon is 24 now, when he’s 27 his fastball will be 89 – 90 and his breaking stuff a full level lower. The Brownsville Armadillos or Long Island Ducks are in his future.
And what is your basis for claiming that JDL has a degenerative shoulder condition?
ALL shoulder injuries are degenerative for pitchers. 100%. If it’s the shoulder, just put a line through him and move on.
In 2005 Felix Hernandez spent a month on the DL with shoulder bursitis. He was never quite the same again.
Felix Hernandez has become an outstanding pitcher, but when he was first in MLB his fastball sat at 95 MPH and touched 97 or 98 with plus life. Now it’s at 90 on a good day.
If De Leon is such a pitching talent then why is he not long ago established as a MLB pitcher? King Felix was a superstar pitcher long before his 24th birthday. Greg Maddux was close to free agency when he was 24 years old.
It’s ridiculous that we are having this much discussion about a non-entity like Jose De leon who will be forgotten about in a few years.
It’s 90 on a good day… 10 years after the events in question. 10 years.
YOU are the one going on and on about a non-entity like Jose De leon who will be forgotten about in a few years. The rest of us don’t really care all that much.
You frankly don’t know what you’re talking about. ALL pitchers have shoulder inflammation. ALL. If that’s your idea of a terrifying, career ending health risk, you don’t know the subject well.
All pitchers have a sore arm after pitching. All of them don’t go on the DL for it. Going on the DL raises the level of the problem as having TJ surgery raises the level of future risk.
this is not an argument, it’s a conclusion. how did you reason your way to believing De Leon will only be a 3/4 starter?
I’m not trying to argue. I’m pointing out that fangaphs scouting/prospect guy put the 3/4 tag on him and that (I believe) other trades based on expected future value have gotten more back than what De Leon suggests to be.
That’s what they project he’ll LIKELY be. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t have front end potential…
Fair point. Longenhagen indeed said “I think DeLeon will be a solid No. 3 or 4 starter” just six weeks ago. Maybe the Twins analysis is more in line with EL’s than Dave’s, in which case it’s justifiable to be holding out for another big piece, like Verdugo.
Dave Cameron’s point is not that they should simply settle for DeLeon only. His point is that they shouldn’t become so obsessed that the Dodgers overpay that they lose out on DeLeon altogether.
No he’s not. Cameron is saying they should jump on De Leon right now and be glad they got his fried shoulder for Dozier.
You, my friend, require some serious reading comprehension courses if that’s what you took out of this article.
At what point does z-contact % become reliable? According to fangraphs plate discipline page, De Leon threw 149 pitches in the zone, of which ~66% were swung on. So the contact percentage above is based on a sample of 98 swings.
Also, De Leon’s 4 starts were against the Padres (29th by OPS), NYY (26th), ARI (17th), and Padres (29th).
Another reason I think this makes sense is that if you look at the Twins’ position players, they’ve got a core that isn’t half bad. Sano/Buxton/Kepler/Polanco is something that could be looking pretty good by 2018.
What they do not have is much in the pipeline for pitching, or the resources to fix that via free agency. So if they don’t want to end up in 2018/2019 with a great offense but leaning on the Ervin Santana’s of the world to win playoff games, they better start trying to gather some high upside pitching any way they can.
I still think LA would do Calhoun + De Leon, which is something the Twins should jump all over.
You just made the argument for Yadier Alvarez instead of De leon who’s 24 and has a fried shoulder.
Holy crap, give up on Alvarez, it’s not happening. The deal would be done if he was a part of any package.
Then block the “Dream Team’s” number and move on to the other 28 MLB teams.
So the guy who’s job it is to look at prospects thinks he’s a mid rotation pitcher, but here’s an article about how he (and other prospect evaluators) tend to under rate this type of pitcher.
Is this what Wittgenstein meant that the world is a totality of facts?
Cameron is pretty much always wrong, while front offices are only sometimes wrong, so there’s that.
De Leon is an okay get for Dozier, and the Twins desperately need good, or okay more likely, young pitching, but that’s not enough for Dozier IMO. At very least they should ask for Willie Calhoun too. He’s unlikely to stick in the NL due to his poor defense anyway. Or just hang onto Dozier and wait until the deadline. The Dodgers are understandably stingy with their prospects, but it would be foolish to give in to them and accept just De Leon.
There are 28 other teams out there. Why the fixation with the Dodgers?
Because only one team has a big hole at 2B, intends to contend and has the farm system to make any deal they want.
Right. Where else can they turn?
Playoff Contenders:
Cubs – Zobrist
Nats – Murphy
Mets – Walker
Astros – Altuve
Sox – Pedroia
Giants – Panik
Tigers – Kinsler
Indians – Kipnis
Mariners – Cano
Rangers – Odor
Blue Jays – Travis
Orioles – Schoop
Schoop is probably the worst guy on that list and he put up a 2 WAR season last year. The Yankees could use him but aren’t going to surrender the talent necessary. The Royals have a big hole at 2B but look like they’re prepping for a transition. Other than maybe the Cardinals wanting to upgrade Wong, a stretch, I don’t see another fit.
WALKER is a dead man on the DL. Back surgery. The Mets are a prime candidate to need Dozier in 2017.
How do you know that none of the rest will get injured or test positive for PEDS like the Marlins 2B did last year?
You seem not to get this at all. Dozier is cheap and he’s not in his walk year, nor are the Twins dead. That’s a young squad with some top of the Top 100 List position talents.
You’re the one who doesn’t understand. Your team has a couple good looking young players who’ve done little to nothing thus far. Your team won 59 games, literally the definition of a dead team. You’re going nowhere without a substantial influx of good pitching. Having a few more 3-4 WAR seasons of Dozier won’t change that equation. I would hold out for more than De Leon, but make no mistake, you need pitching. Badly.
Are you addressing me? These comments do not thread well. The Twins need Yadier Alvarez, they have zero need of Jose De leon.
It’s ironic that you tout the Twins top 100 prospects, yet dismiss De Leon, who is himself a highly rated player on those very same lists.
The Top 100 lists are great for identifying top position players, more of whom should be on those lists instead of the pitchers who are there instead.
How’s Tyler Kolek doing? #52 on Baseball America (BA) list pre-2015.
Chad James, #78 BA pre-2010
Brett Sinkbeil Pre-2007: Rated #77
Pre-2008: Rated #68
Chris Volstad Pre-2006: Rated #97
Pre-2007: Rated #40
Pre-2008: Rated #58
Another Marlins pitcher fits on this list but he became a heroin addict so I left him off rather then open up an opportunity for a tangent.
Remember Josh Johnson? No? Big guy, 6’7″. Roy Halladay pitched a perfect game against the Marlins. Josh Johnson was his opponent and gave up one hit. Johnson was referred to frequently as “Roy Jr.”. Josh Johnson is still trying to make his way back into MLB after his third TJ surgery.
If it can happen to Josh Johnson then those elbow chips Noah Syndergaard is dealing with could be serious in the long run.
…What did I just read?
The Dodgers do indeed have the prospects to get Dozier – Yadier Alvarez and Alex Verdugo – but this is a trade and if one side won’t give up what’s necessary it doesn’t matter what they have. The Dodgers have made it clear they will only deal the guys they expect to fail.
I don’t think anyone is saying the Dodgers are only offering De Leon or that the Twins should do that. I’m willing to bet that Calhoun is a part of the package the Dodgers are willing to trade, and most accounts are (accurately or inaccurately) that there is a hangup on who the third prospect should be. It was never going to be just De Leon.
Calhoun is worthless. I’m sure Calhoun is in the deal. Yadier Alvarez and Alex Verdugo are the talents, the guys who could become somebody in MLB. The Dodgers rule is they won’t give up anyone who can become somebody in MLB no matter who they are seeking in a deal.
You’re digging a deeper hole here, JimmieFoXX. How do you see Calhoun as worthless? Re-read EL’s write-up on him – the guy can really hit.
Calhoun has no position, that’s why the Dodgers are willing to trade him. As a DH he has no value as he has no DH power. If Calhoun could stick at 2B he would be another Dream Team untouchable.
I think Calhoun makes sense but I haven’t heard him specifically connected to this trade. Link?
Alex Verdugo makes sense. He plays a defensive position very well. Most people say CF.
The other issue the twins are facing is that there isn’t much of a market for 2B right now. That’s not going to change, though, and at some point they need to bite the bullet and take the best deal they can get because holding Dozier into the season is not a good alternative.
“That’s not going to change”
No one ever gets injured and there are so many guys ready to man 2B and go yard with middle-of-the-order power. Just drop their pants and bend over for the Dodgers’ “Dream Team”.
Dozier’s WAR the last three seasons is nearly 14, and he’s trended up all three years. He’s not yet 30, and signed cheaply for two more seasons. I am very, very surprised that he’s not valued more highly than this. I’m not saying he is; it just surprises me. He seems like a franchise cornerstone to me.
He is, that’s why the Dodgers will give up three future fifth starters/long-man-in-the-pen guys for him instead of one.
It’s interesting how much the comments section has changed regarding De Leon since his rough 17 inning major league debut (which really wasn’t even that bad). Between this and Giolito, it seems like the public has a tendency to sour on pitching prospects incredibly quickly.
And why not? Pitching “prospects” should always have quotation marks around the word: prospects. The attrition rate is staggering.
De Leon’s debut was really strong. It just that his subsequent starts were not…
…
Why are my comments being moderated, and JimmieFoXX is posting all over the place?
Minnesota is a pitcher’s park and if Deleon can get 150-160 innings in and not be terrible, I agree with Dave. He would return much more in a year or two than Dozier alone most likely because of his age and upside.
This is pretty absurd analysis of De Leon as a prospect. You are absolutely dismissing the real concerns while also taking a very favorable comp way too seriously and you never hesitate to pile on the upside. I don’t have the faith in any pitching prospect that you do in the Dodgers 4th best prospect. At first I didn’t notice the author of the piece, but the certainty of the analysis makes sense now… there are selective numbers behind the rationale, it has to be true!