The Updated Top 131 Prospect Rankings

With two months of the minor-league season now complete and the draft also finished, it’s an appropriate time to publish a revised version of our preseason top-100 list. The list is below. Notes about methodology and specific players appear below that.

For reference, HM is Honorable Mention, meaning a 50 FV prospect who didn’t make the top 100 on the preseason list. NR means Not Ranked, which is either a 40 or 45 FV prospect from the offseason ranking or a drafted player who just entered the player pool for this list. Since the gap between the 100th-ranked prospect and the lowest 50 FV, or 131st-ranked prospect, is rather small, we decided to just rank them all in order.

Shohei Ohtani graduates off the top off the list. Ronald Acuna and Vlad Guerrero Jr. move up into the 70 FV tier. Acuna was running better than he was last year before his knee injury and had been hitting well, as a 20-year-old, in the big leagues. Guerrero suffered a knee injury of his own recently and will miss a month. Reports on his defense early this year have been encouraging enough that we think he’ll be okay there for a while, but we still think he eventually moves to first base.

Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Alex Reyes, and Lewis Brinson graduate from the tier of 60 FVs. MacKenzie Gore moved into the 60s, as his stuff electric, clearly among the best in the minors from a repertoire quality/depth perspective, before he began dealing with blister issues which kept him out until this past Sunday. Some of the other 60s have been shuffled around a spot pr two due to injury or varied performance, the most significant of which is Francisco Mejia, who moves to the back of the tier due to his anemic start. Juan Soto rocketed through the minors faster than we expected (and faster than any teenager since Alex Rodriguez) and moves ahead of Kyle Tucker, who has comparable tools but is a level below the younger Soto, who is off to a great big-league start.

Walker Buehler, Scott Kingery, and J.P. Crawford graduated off the 55 FV tier. Brent Honeywell moved from the 60 FV tier into the 55s due to Tommy John. A.J. Puk moved toward the back of the 55 FV tier for the same reason. Luiz Gohara was difficult because he has been hurt twice and barely pitched, but he’s had a tumultuous several months that’s included severe family illness and death, so his issues have a likely source. Yordan Alvarez had a torrid start before injury and moved into the tier of 55 FVs. Note the complete lack of corner bats in the Nos. 6-30 range on the list, other than Alvarez, who we think can be a middle-of-the-order force if he can stay healthy.

The 50 FV tier has the most movement, which should be the case considering that there are more, tightly packed players. Michel Baez moves down from the 55 FV tier after contending with back injury this spring and diminished velo (94-97 last year, 92-95 this spring). He’s been passed by Chris Paddack, whose stuff is back after surgery and currently better than Baez’s. Anthony Alford also moved down due to continued injuries and swing-and-miss issues when healthy. The latter goes, too, for Monte Harrison.

Other big movers include Jesus Luzardo, who is now at Double-A and has a better three-pitch mix than Triston McKenzie, ahead of whom he now appears. A wide swath of injured pitchers move to the back of the 50 FV tier, ahead of the softer, near-ready fourth-starter types who round out the back of our list. Graduates from this tier: Tyler Mahle, Jack Flaherty, Colin Moran, Brian Anderson, Ryan McMahon, Brandon Woodruff, Fernando Romero, Joey Lucchesi, Christian Arroyo, Jesse Winker, Chance Sisco.

Some players who totally fell off and moved from the low-end 50 FV tier and into the 45s include Michael Chavis (PEDs), Austin Hays (who is 23 and tanking at Double-A), J.B. Bukauskas (who was a 50 because we thought he’d be a quick-moving reliever but is now hurt and can’t move), James Kaprielian (another injury), Freicer Perez, Chris Rodriguez (stress fracture in back), Yohander Mendez (stuff keeps backing up), Jose Israel Garcia (looks nothing like the player international scouts described), Kevin Maitan (ditto), Jose Adolis Garcia (swing-and-miss/approach issues), Lucas Erceg (ditto), Trent Grisham (just the swing and miss).

There will be a full update of THE BOARD coming in the next week or so. It will include updated rankings and scouting grades on all of the 800 or so prospects who we feel are the best in the minors, along with added columns and expanded information.