The Value of Joe Mauer

No catcher has quite been like Joe Mauer.

Since his first full season in the big leagues, he has easily been the best catcher in baseball. Between 2005 and 2010, he compiled a 32.7 WAR — Victor Martinez finished a distant second with 22.2 WAR. He was a solid defender;  he routinely contended (and won) batting titles; he got on base at ridiculously high rates; and he even contributed stolen bases. Needless to say, he obliterated his catching competition. Mauer’s performances were truly unique.

And now that time might have come to a premature end.

With Mauer getting his first start at first base Thursday, it’s clear that the Minnesota Twins are willing to move the 28-year-old around the diamond to keep him healthy. But this creates an interesting conundrum since Mauer stands to lose a ton of value.

The Twins might have already tried out Mauer at first base, but many have speculated that a move to third — or one of the corner outfield spots — could also be legitimate possibilities for Mauer. To determine how Mauer would perform, we can look at the average performances of all players at those positions from this season and compare them to Mauer’s stats since 2005.

There’s one thing that immediately stands out when looking at the data — and it shouldn’t be surprising: Mauer is a phenomenal hitter. Despite the fact that he’s not perceived as a strong power hitter — his 2009 season excepted — Mauer is far better than his competition in slugging percentage and in OPS. Since Mauer’s average and on-base percentage would work at any position, it figures the Twins wouldn’t lose that much by moving him off catcher. Right?

That’s where things get a little tricky. Since offense has been down in past seasons, the baselines for offensive performance at each of the listed positions is lower than they have been in recent years — making Mauer’s stats looks stronger than usual. On top of that, these numbers assume that Mauer will  return to form following his injuries. That could be a dangerous proposition.

As of now, we have no indication whether the old Mauer is coming back or Old Man Mauer is here to stay. If Mauer can’t return to form, and his offensive performance takes a dive, the Twins are going to have a much harder time extracting value by playing him at other positions.

If that’s the case, the Twins will be left to determine the most effective way to employ Mauer. While he would provide maximum value as a catcher, it looks more likely that he won’t hold up under a catcher’s workload. The Twins would then need to decide whether 100 games of Mauer at catcher is more valuable than 140 games of Mauer at another position.

And that’s just half of the equation. Defense certainly would play a role in the position switch. Jeff Zimmerman covered this issue in September. According to his research, catchers generally turned out to be pretty decent fielders — though they were slightly more valuable when converted to the outfield because of their strong throwing arms. Mauer is probably one of the more athletic catchers we’ve ever seen, so it’s plausible to think he’d have the range to effectively play third base or right field.

Unfortunately for the Twins, much of Mauer’s value is dependent on whether he can produce at his pre-injury level. There are reasons for optimism: Mauer still is young and his injuries haven’t been career-threatening. There’s no reason to expect a total offensive collapse. Moving Mauer around the field definitely takes away some of his value, but his bat is special enough to play anywhere.





Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.

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RCmember
12 years ago

I’ve got Brian McCann on line 2, and he sounds peeved. Something about an “obliterated the competition” comment?

RCmember
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

He’s saying something about Mauer having an extra year of playing time….you know anything about this?

DavidCEisen
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

So McCann would have made up the 11 WAR in that period?

Kyle
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

Well, you can tell Mr. Mauer that McCann doesn’t just lead the Braves in batting average most years since Chipper had that absurd year that he got injured, but he also usually leads them in homeruns, RBI, and is far better at handling a pitching staff and calling a game.

Obviously Mauer has been a hitting machine, but aside from his MVP season where he hit 28 homeruns, his career high is 13. And now that he’s a 1st baseman won’t it be cute seeing him have seasons of 5 to 9 homeruns and driving in 80 runs. I bet Minnesota fans are psyched to see him making 23 million a year until 2018.

And so far in the postseason, McCann has played like a guy being paid like Pujols, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Votto, Fielder, Texeira, Konerko(underpaid) and he’s a year younger and still playing catcher. McCann has hit .300 with 3 homeruns and 8 RBI in 30 at-bats. While Mauer and his 32.7 WAR doesn’t mean a whole lot when in 35 at-bats he only has one extra base hit(not a homerun)and one RBI. This season Mauer hasn’t hit one homerun in 100 at-bats and shown signs of decline with only 4 doubles. He’s getting paid 6 million per extra base hit right now… AWESOME INVESTMENT.

Jon
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

Someone needs to explain to Kyle about small sample sizes. Ah, but who would ever bring up something like that on a site like this?

Kyle
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

Kyle understands that it’s been a small sample size, but I’m guessing you haven’t seen Mauer in any of his at-bats this season. He doesn’t even look like the same guy. First base is a position that most teams have a guy who hits for power. Average, well, they like that too… but Mauer has not been the same guy. He still hasn’t hit a homerun, and is still having trouble driving the ball.

He was overpaid, and with a few injuries and the possible added pressure he’s putting on himself to earn that contract… it’s not looking good. While Jason Kendall was never as good as Mauer, he was once a career .318 hitter and perennial all-star. And after the age of 30 he became a .259 hitter with even less power. You should never sign a catcher who for that much when your a team who can’t afford to pay 2 or 3 guys 70 percent of their payroll.

RCmember
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

In all seriousness, I’m not trying to imply that McCann has been better….Mauer obviously has been the better player over that period. But to say he “obliterated” the competition is putting it a bit strong when the difference in the year’s they’ve both played full time is much smaller, and when Mauer’s insane 2009 is removed from the equation the difference is roughly 1 win a year…significant, but not “obliterating”.

AdamM
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

Mauer has four seasons better than McCann’s finest. In a seven-season stretch, that is very significant. He has 50% more WAR, that’s obliteration. Just look at the graph!

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4810_1857___sgraph_%20_7_8_2011.png

Barkey Walker
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

“when Mauer’s insane 2009 is removed” It’s part of being a great player, you have to have some insane years. This is what separates the Mauers from the McCanns, obliterating them.

RCmember
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

Another question: Is there a way to separate WAR earned as a catcher from WAR earned as a DH? I noticed that Mauer played 89 games as a DH over that period, during which time I’m sure he accumulated a significant portion of his value. I can’t find a way on Fangraphs to separate out WAR as catcher vs. WAR as DH though.

Louis
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

Maybe it’s just that having a hobbit-like body holds up better at the position than Mauer’s athletic build.

Yirmiyahu
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

So let’s look at the period of time since McCann’s first full season:

2006-2011: Mauer has 29.0 WAR, McCann 24.0 WAR… Obliterated.

This comes despite Mauer’s sucky 2011.

Yirmiyahu
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

harpago17:

I don’t think there’s a way to do that via fangraphs. But you can look at their batting splits via b-r. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mauerjo01&year=Career&t=b

If you wanted to take the time, you could convert his batting line as a catcher into wOBA, convert that to runs-above-average, add in the replacement level and positional adjustments, and come up with WAR. This wouldn’t include fielding (where its a wash with McCann) or baserunning (where Mauer dominates), though.

baty
12 years ago
Reply to  Chris Cwik

Mauer is clearly the strongest talent, but when you’ve only had 1 year of starting 2/3 of the season’s games behind the plate, that’s hardly obliterating the competition. McCann’s on pace for his 6th straight, and if you’re the Twins, you’re talking about having to use your 2nd/3rd on the depth chart more than 140 times during that stretch while McCann is on the field.

Nik
12 years ago
Reply to  RC

I guess McCann would have posted the best catcher season of all-time that year right?