The Washington Nationals Are World Series Champions
Five times, the Washington Nationals faced elimination from the 2019 postseason. Five times, they trailed in those games. And five times, they prevailed. The Washington Nationals are World Series Champions. They were 19-31 in the late days of May. They were down 3-1 in the Wild Card Game with Josh Hader coming in. They were down 3-1 in Game 5 against the Dodgers. They were down 2-1 yesterday, coming back to Houston after scoring just three runs in their three, first-ever World Series home games, and they were down 2-0 entering the seventh yesterday. But the Washington Nationals are World Series Champions. That’s how the story of the 2019 season ends.
***
The game already promised to be a monumental one. It was a Game 7. It was a showdown between two of the game’s longest-tenured and best pitchers, Scherzer vs. Greinke: Max Scherzer, the overpowering madman risen from the grave of debilitating neck pain to pitch in the biggest game of his career, and Zack Greinke, the big acquisition of the trade deadline, the player who had once nearly left baseball due to anxiety now calmly preparing to take on the most anxiety-inducing situation in baseball. For the first time in history, all six previous games had been won by the road team, the Nationals and the Astros stunning each other and their home crowds by turns. The series win expectancy flipped over and over on itself. Now, though, it was a matter of one game.
Right from the outset, Greinke was masterful. He retired the side in the top of the first on just eight pitches. A slider for a lineout snagged by Alex Bregman, a changeup and a slider for a pair of weak groundouts. A swinging strike on a 68 mph curveball. And for six innings, the game was exactly that: Greinke’s. He controlled the edges of Jim Wolf’s pitcher-friendly strike zone, controlled the infield with his sure-handed fielding of each of the many balls hit his way, as if to accentuate the degree to which the game was steady in his grip. Through six innings, the Nationals managed just a single hit and a single walk. Any lead, with that kind of performance ongoing, would seem like a clear path to the championship.
Scherzer, meanwhile, came out of the gate firing with every cylinder he had. His first pitch of the game, a fastball outside to the ever-dangerous George Springer, was 96.7 mph — per Baseball Savant, the velocity of his four-seamer this season averaged 94.9 mph. Though Scherzer fell behind Springer 2-0, he managed to retire him on a sharp flyout to Victor Robles. And though he walked Michael Brantley after inducing a groundout from José Altuve, he managed to get out of the first inning unscathed.
But the problems of the first inning — poor location, trouble commanding the slider, allowing hard contact — would continue. The bottom of the second began with a home run from Yuli Gurriel, a 2-1 slider sliced into the Crawford Boxes, giving the Astros the lead once again. After the next two batters promptly reached on back-to-back singles, things were not looking good for the Nationals.
But Robinson Chirinos popped out on an errant bunt on the next pitch, and though Scherzer fell behind the following two batters as well, both were retired, stranding two Astros in scoring position. The narrative of the Astros’ historic offense suddenly struggling to drive in runners on second and third in the postseason has followed them through the World Series, even as they took the 3-2 Series advantage with those decisive victories in Washington. In Game 7, it once again defined the Astros’ bats. The Astros put two runners on base in each of the three innings that followed. Only once did they manage to drive in a run, on this single from Carlos Correa in the bottom of the fifth that gave them a 2-0 lead.
The bottom of the fifth would end up being Scherzer’s last frame. He left with his team behind, and he surely didn’t pitch as long as the Nationals would have hoped for. This was not a performance like Stephen Strasburg’s yesterday, one that removes some of the mental strain of piecing together innings out of bullpen fragments. But it was no less important. Here was the team’s ace, who just a few days ago had been in so much pain that he couldn’t even dress himself, in Game 7 of the World Series, against baseball’s best offense, on a day when he clearly didn’t have his best stuff. He got himself, and the team, through five innings. They were down 2-0, but they had seen worse.
Out of the pen in the sixth came Patrick Corbin, the Nationals’ answer of sorts to Greinke: their big new pitching acquisition, though Corbin came via free agency instead of trade. Corbin’s multipurpose function this postseason came with perhaps mixed results: Three of his seven appearances prior to Game 7 were scoreless, but he allowed 16 runs over 17 and two-thirds innings in the other four. And it would be hard for Nationals fans to forget the disaster that followed his entry in the sixth inning of Game 3 against the Dodgers.
But today, Corbin was clean. A leadoff single from Jake Marisnick seemed like it might herald the coming of the end, but it was swiftly erased on a strikeout and a double play from Springer and Jose Altuve. The Astros’ advantage was held to just the two runs.
The next time Corbin took the mound, the Nationals had the lead.
***
In my recap of Game 2, I wrote about the strange energy of the seventh inning — of the number seven in baseball more generally. Appropriate, then, that the seventh was where the tide of Game 7 shifted — when the laws of gravity suddenly reversed. It happened quickly, so quickly that you almost couldn’t process what you were seeing: Greinke retired Adam Eaton for the first out of the inning — same old, same old — and then, in the blink of an eye, Anthony Rendon had cut the Astros’ lead in half.
Up to the plate came Juan Soto. He offered at just one pitch from Greinke — a curveball, far outside of the strike zone. He watched four of them go by. The tying run was aboard, and the game was no longer Greinke’s. A.J. Hinch took that walk out to the mound, took the ball out of Greinke’s hand, and out of the bullpen came Will Harris. Harris has been nearly untouchable this postseason, allowing his first run of October in Game 6. The move to him, to my mind, made sense. The Astros had seen late leads crumble against the Nationals before, and Harris had been their best reliever.
Two pitches later, Howie Kendrick changed the course of history.
Another home crowd, stunned into silence. The Nationals didn’t look back. They added another run on a Soto single in the eighth, and in the ninth tacked on two more on an Eaton single and a Marisnick error. The parade of Astros relievers couldn’t staunch the bleeding; Gerrit Cole looked on from the bullpen. And on the mound for Washington, Corbin didn’t falter, and the Astros continued to be frustrated. He pitched the seventh and eighth, allowing just one baserunner — Gurriel, on a single. His eighth was the Nationals’ first clean inning of the day.
Still, the bottom of the ninth would be a hell of a final gauntlet to run. The series, despite the four-run lead, was not yet on ice. It would be Springer, Altuve, and Brantley against Daniel Hudson.
It was no contest. Popout, strikeout, strikeout. Hudson’s glove in the air, Astros fans shellshocked in their seats or heading for the exits, a roar from the Nationals dugout as they stormed the field, and a roar from the far-flung fans gathered behind them, who had come so far for the sometimes distant-seeming hope of witnessing a championship.
And there they were, the team that had never won a playoff series before, the team that was 19-31, who stood on the brink of oblivion five times over and never fell. Strasburg, whose narrative of absence has been replaced by a World Series MVP trophy, and Soto, the young phenom, and Rendon, the quiet superstar, and Zimmerman, the line stretching through the franchise. Scherzer and Aníbal Sánchez, old friends from a team that never quite made it to the top, reunited to win it all. And there was the strongest team in baseball, returned to take back their title and secure their dynasty, only to falter in the last nine outs; the best pitcher on earth, who carried them through this postseason, who seems soon to depart, and the lineup of MVPs, the Altuves and Bregmans and Springers, who will keep them coming back to this point for years to come. All of them were there, forming this unforgettable conclusion.
The Washington Nationals are 2019 World Series Champions.
***
Why do you care about baseball? I posed this question via Twitter in the hours before the game. The answers, which I’d encourage you to take a look at, were as varied as the people answering them. People told stories of childhood, or stories of adulthood; of parents and siblings and children and friends; of certain players, certain plays; of smells and sights and sounds and silences; of spreadsheets and the thrill of discovery; of finding a diamond-shaped light in the darkness. Some people feel the persistent lingering of a nearly-gone nostalgia. Some people just don’t know. And some know everything they need to: We care about baseball because it’s baseball. What else is there to say?
But what is baseball? There is baseball — the physical actions that comprise the game. And there is baseball — all the other things, the rules and the people and the history and the business. And somewhere in between those two is the baseball that we all care about so much. The baseball that feels so specific to each person, the baseball that’s somehow the same for everyone. It’s the silence right as the pitch is about to leave the pitcher’s hand, the space between the runner’s foot and the first-base bag, the inch separating the ball and the grass and the glove. It’s a void that we fill with a story.
Caring about this particular story takes a lot of time, a lot of energy. It feels bad, sometimes. It is bad, sometimes. It doesn’t make sense to keep filling up this void. But we humans tell stories in the hope that someone will hear — that they’ll understand, and they’ll remember. So we keep telling it. We try to make it a good one.
***
Before the game began yesterday afternoon, I was hurriedly running errands. Buying groceries for the meal I would cook while watching the game; we needed more hand soap for the bathroom; had I already gotten some sponges? Last week was typical October here, chilly and grey and full of rain — days end-to-end with rain — and that’s how I remember the postseason. Sitting on the curb as I walked to the bus stop, listening to the end of the 2016 Jays on my little old portable radio, perched on a rock on the beach writing end-of-season recaps in the dark after the Dodgers lost back-to-back — always cold, always with the clouds casting their pall over everything. I don’t mind it. I love the rain. I don’t hate the sun anymore, but I still do love the rain.
This week, though, was uncharacteristically bright. The colors of autumn only end up shining for a few isolated afternoons, normally. Take a nap, wake up, and you’re back in the real world again, the light hidden away, and it’s time to get working, anyway. But I went to class last Friday morning in a downpour, and I left in a clear world, the clouds swept away by gusts of wind so strong they almost knocked me over. They haven’t come back. They will, but not yet. And so I hurried home with my groceries in the sunlight as Greinke threw his warmup pitches in Houston, as the radio broadcast faded out to the final ad break before the beginning of the end, my feet crunching through the piles of crisp fallen leaves not yet swept aside.
A block away from home, my phone rang. A foreign-looking number — a Michigan area code. Didn’t know who that might be. I usually don’t pick up, but I picked up this time. It was my older brother, yelling. He was yelling because he was at Nats Park, getting ready to watch Game 7 with thousands of other people in the pouring rain. I could hear them, hear the buzz behind him, as he told me happy birthday.
It’s been 10 birthdays since he’s been at home to tell me that in person, and just a few birthdays before that we were still little kids, and I was still at his Little League games barely watching them, and we were throwing baseballs back and forth and inventing worlds for ourselves that never ended up existing, no matter how real they seemed in those moments. No, the world we found ourselves in was this one: Him in D.C. witnessing World Series history, and me in Vancouver, rushing back to the home baseball allowed me to have, waiting to document the same history he was standing in. What childhood imagination could have foretold that? A few thousand miles between us, but the same shared gift, still there, the same in the hours before 22 as it had been at 12. There was a baseball game, and we were watching it.
I thanked him, and told him to enjoy the game. I made my way home in the sunlight.
RJ is the dilettante-in-residence at FanGraphs. Previous work can be found at Baseball Prospectus, VICE Sports, and The Hardball Times.
I’m so glad the Astros got Osuna.
Excellent writing.
Indeed, and as usual!
A big factor which I haven’t seen anyone mention was Gomes blocking pitches in the dirt with men on base so that they couldn’t advance. Scherzer’s control was way off and he was trying desperately to get swings and misses. In the first six innings I counted 8 blocks for Gomes with men on base, and he didn’t let a single one by. That was a big thing which kept the score close.
Indeed. And more broadly—despite the Astros having a superior defense by personnel—-I thought the Nats played phenomenal defense the whole series. Robles in CF and Rendon at 3B in particular were amazing. And the play Turner made on the short hop rocket in G6 by Brantley with 2 guys on was a far tougher out than Buck etc made it seem.
This World Series has given me a number of very satisfying things, but two in particular stand out:
1) Getting to see the road team win every. single. game. I love it! An unbreakable record! (at least under the current rules).
2) No longer having people look at me like I’m crazy when I talk about Juan Soto and his genius in the batter’s box.
I’m gonna get downvoted for this but I think Hinch’s handling of his staff was lousy. I was shocked but not surprised when he pulled Greinke when he did. Greinke had been masterful, 6.1 innings, 2 walks, 2 hits, only 80 pitches. He gave up a homer and walk right before but frankly one of the balls to Soto should have been called a strike, that was hardly evidence that he’d lost it. Harris had already pitched in 4 games in the series, this would be the second time he’d pitched back-to-back days and it would be 4 times in 5 days, he gave up a homer the day before, it made no sense to think that he’d be more reliable than Greinke. I mean 80 pitches just isn’t much. If Hinch absolutely insisted on pulling Greinke then, Cole was the obvious choice. I’ve already ranted here about putting Pressly in in the 7th in game 2 when he hadn’t exactly been effective since coming back from the injury, and using Verlander on short rest in game 4 against the Rays–Verlander had been brilliant in game 1 but he pitched lousy then and was completely mediocre in his next 4 starts (24.2 IP, 6HRs, 22 hits, 13 ERs, 8 BBs, 25 Ks). It looked to me like Hinch kept trying to make up for his last mistake and this would push him to make another mistake.
I didn’t think Harris move was a mistake. Sure he could have gone to Cole who has never relieved in majors or minors. Harris was your best reliever so if you are gonna get beat, best to go with your best reliever. Besides I love Howie and the fact that we won, but his HR won’t be a HR in any other park. It traveled what 320-330 ft, hit the foul pole, and stayed fair. It was the definition of a Minute Maid HR. You can second guess lot of moves but the fact is your offense came up short. They had plenty opportunities to do damage against Scherzer but Max kept it together.
I agree, Harris was probably the right call there. Defend-able process, bad result.
As for Kendrick’s home run, I think the ‘not a homer at any other park’ is a bit overused. That ball is ‘way’ out at Fenway. Also gone at Yankee stadium and the Trop if not others. I believe’s Houston’s RF porch is 326, Fenway measures in at 310 for example.
Yes. That’s a HR in a number of American League parks, really, including most of the ones that were in the playoffs this year.
Also, even if it’s not a home run, it’s at least a double and the go-ahead run is on at second with one out.
Given that the next batter (Cabrera) singled, and the one after that (Zimmerman) walked, and the Nats scored three more runs in the next two innings, you have to get into some far-fetched “Alternate 1985” butterfly-effect stuff to argue that a different ballpark would’ve mattered all that much.
Actually I think in many parks where it’s not a home run it’s a foul ball, rather than a double.
Oh oops! Guess I was exaggerating a bit but honestly, I would call that HR lucky. Good swing on a good pitch but still lucky that it stayed fair long enough to hit the pole.
Oddly enough, also a homer in T-Mobile because of that odd cut out.
It was a mistake to pull Greinke at all. He was blowing the Nats away, you don’t pull a starter who’s thrown 80 pitches with 2 hits, 1 real walk, and 19 outs unless there’s clear evidence that he’s melting down, and there wasn’t. And Harris was at that point overused (the fact that he’d given up a homer the day before should have been a red light). The time he should have been used was instead of Pressly in game 2, in fact that’s what I wrote here. Hinch only realized that Harris was the most effective reliever after that, and then he started overusing him. That’s what I meant by Hinch overreacting to one mistake by making another one.
I felt like he actually made the correct call. The homer to Rendon and then the walk to Soto back to back. Had thrown 13 pitches that inning- 7 balls, a swing on a ball, and the homer. That’s not good. That inning was a lot of red lights….
Now, you could disagree about who he went for…
As far as Harris and the last time he should have been used was in game 2- that’s a bunch of crap. They were down 2-0 after game 2 – sorry but they had to have game 3. Harris going 1.2 innings was a requirement. Thought it was a key in that game that Rodney and Ross kept it close.. Also thought given the situation- game 4 call was right as well…
My point wasn’t that harris shouldn’t have been used since game 2. My point was that by the time game 7 came around, he’d been used so much recently that there was some question if he’d be reliable. Especially considering that he’d given up a homer the day before.
Regarding whether Greinke was losing it in the 7th, he got an 0-2 count on Eaton on two called strikes right on the paint, tried to get him to chase a low curve which was fouled off, barely missed with a fastball, missed badly at 1-2 with a change, then got him to ground out with another change also right on the paint. I don’t see any red lights there. He then missed low and away to Rendon, then gave him a low change which got pounded. It was good placement, almost the bottom of the strike zone, apparently Rendon wasn’t fooled by the changeup but Rendon is Rendon and these things happen. Then Soto, he was trying to get him to chase outside pitches, he threw three of them and Soto only chased one. At 2-1 he then threw a changeup at the bottom of the strike zone which the umpire incorrectly called a ball. Then at 3-1 he tried another outside curve and again Soto didn’t bite. He didn’t lose his control, he was pitching to a very dangerous hitter with no one on base, he didn’t want to give up a homer, and he tried to get him to swing at a bad pitch and it only worked once. No red lights there either, and after only 80 pitches you wouldn’t necessarily expect that there would be. In terms of whether Harris a good choice, before yesterday, in Harris’ last five appearances he’d faced 19 batters, struck out 4, and given up in HR (the day before). I wouldn’t call that exactly lights out. And apparently Hinch had decided he’d only use Cole to protect a lead, because that’s how Boston won the world series last year–sounds like he was writing a script, not thinking about the choices which would give his team the best chance to win–so they kept falling farther and farther behind, because Hinch had decided that he wasn’t going to use his best pitcher unless they had the lead. Sorry, sounds to me like there wasn’t much brain action going on.
If anyone on this blog remembers anything I ever post, they will know that I am completely opposed to early hooks for any pitcher who is cruising, especially top of the rotation men like Greinke. It was 80 pitches, 80, and two of the absolute best hitters in baseball were not retired, so what! Greinke had earned the right to continue his masterful performance until at least one more hitter actually hit the ball hard. I had no rooting interest and felt strangely good when my pet peeve, next to bunting of course, which is yanking great pitchers early determined the outcome of the World Series.
Following up on my previous post, one of the things I found most interesting was the excessive bunting by teams that are supposed to be cognizant of the statistics and probability on the use of the bunt. The Astros are supposed to be at the forefront of this type of understanding yet I screamed at the TV when Chirinos. who had already hit 2 HR’s in the series was asked to bunt in the 2nd. Earlier in the series Hinch had Greinke, a good hitter, bunt with men on 1st and 3rd and one out, an unbelievably bad move which predictably failed to produce anything. I am vexed trying to think of a single bunt that was successful in its goal. On top of the fact that there were too many bunt attempts, the incredibly bad execution of these attempts was embarrassing.
Eaton in game 6 1st inning. Came darn close to get a hit actually and with Rendon’s single got a 1st inning run……
Even then I thought he was bunting for a base hit and got the consolation prize of a sacrifice. It was still a pretty pathetic performance by almost every player that attempted to bunt, which all sabermetric studies have shown to be a bad play even when it works.
actually go back to Eaton’s other one- 1st and 2nd no outs in the top 7. Helped lead to a huge inning.
Harris was the right call.
There is an article on The Ringer tearing Hinch a new one about how he handled his staff.
20/20 hindsight perhaps?
I thought Greinke was going to throw a Josh Beckett-esque WS clinching shutout. Can’t help but second guess Hinch pulling him out at 80 pitches, even with the previous home run/walk.
Scherzer didn’t pitch as well as his 2 runs in 5 innings would lead one to believe, but the guys coming out of both team’s bullpen decided the game.
Well, he had already lost the shutout and walked a batter when he was pulled. He was doing a good job generating weak contact, but he had just three Ks, so it’s not like he was dominating the Nats hitters (unlike Beckett in his masterful clincher).
Given Hinch had Harris and Osuna (ick) at his disposal, as well as Urquidy and Cole, it made complete sense to pull Greinke to me. It just didn’t work.
Both starting pitchers benefited from the BABIP Gods (Scherzer much more so). Corbin and Hudson were the only lights-out pitchers in the game, and that, as you mention, was the difference.
Greinke was generating weak grounders. Scherzer was generating line drives at the outfielders. It wasn’t the same thing at all.
And no one stated or implied they were remotely similar. The first post in this sub-thread mentions how Scherzer didn’t pitch as well as his line may imply. The first reply stated that Scherzer got much more benefit from the BABIP gods than Greinke did.
looking at baseball savant-
11/17 batters for Scherzer had an xBA of .300+. he gave up 7 hits
6/14 batters for Greinke had an xBA of .300+. he gave up 2 hits
so BOTH guys were 4 hits better than their xBA.
bye, disastros! couldn’t have happened to a nicer group of swiss cheese brain finance bros
I lost my mother in May. She was the reason I fell in love with baseball and we were both Nats fans from the beginning. I live in the UK now and most of our conversations since I moved took place over her day games, my night games. We would email back and forth, “Nice at bat Zim.” “Do you think the bullpen can hold it?” This October for me has been a strange experience, sharing my most personal thing with thousands and thousands of people. This piece captured a lot of what I’ve been feeling and it’s one of my favorite things I’ve read today. Thank you for the beautiful writing. God I love baseball.
So, hope for Oakland some day? well they do need to open up their very very tight wallets. Well done, Rachael.
Lovely writing Rachel. I was with your brother last night. Well, I was among the throngs standing in the rain at Nationals Park at least. Never before have I stood in the rain to watch a sporting event that wasn’t actually happening on the field in front of me.
So. Very. Satisfying.
Sadly, Rendon is unaware of the fact that home runs kill rallies. If only he had known the Nationals might be… wait, what’s that you say?
This is a post about umpires… And since the Astros just lost, it’s mostly about how the umpires contributed to that. And I know Nats fans were probably pretty bitter about some calls as well (and justifiably so), however, the most important moment of the game in my mind was the 2-1 fastball that Greinke threw to Soto. It was very clearly a strike: middle of the plate, low, but entirely in the zone … and the umpire called it a ball. Soto backed off of the plate and stood there smirking with his tongue out looking like he knew that a bad call just changed that AB for him. He’s a phenomenally talented player and as an Astros fan, he scared me half to death every time batted, but his weird Haka dance in the batter’s box and this moment really rubbed me the wrong way. I’d probably love him if he were on my team, but he’s not …
In any case in a 3-1 count and a close game, Greinke has to pitch him carefully and walks him which is what prompted Hinch to take him out of the game. Maybe in a 2-2 count Greinke still would have thrown 2 balls. Maybe Soto would have homered, but with 1 out, a 2-2 count on Soto and Greinke on a roll, who cares about the solo HR to Rendon? It’s just 1 run. And Greinke probably has a good shot to get out of the inning with no further runs. Cole comes into the 8th with a clean inning and ultimately closes out the 9th. The Astros have won their 2nd WS in 3 years. At least that’s what I imagine would have happened to make myself feel better.
But instead I felt like the whole game was over as soon as that call was made. I stopped watching until the Astros starting batting again in the bottom of the inning because I couldn’t bear the sadness and anger that I knew was about to follow after the Soto walk.
The Umpires were extremely generous to the Astros in game 3. And I legitimately felt bad for Robles in game 5 because the umpire was just taking the bat out of his hands by calling everything in the left hander’s batter’s box a strike. I don’t care about the play with Trea Turner. It’s a stupid rule that I think they called right, but it was also a stupid rule that they got right that took Altuve’s HR away against the Red Sox last year so I really didn’t care. But I wish the broadcast would stop showing the strike zone. It just makes me angry to watch the game and distrustful of the Umpire. If they are going to show that strike zone, and teach players to hit according to that zone, they need perfectly consistent umpires. Bring on the ROBO UMPS!!!
But this is the first series I have ever watched where I legitimately wonder what would have happened with different Umpiring. Maybe the Nat’s sweep. Maybe they come back to Houston up 3-2. Maybe Houston wins in Game 7. Or Maybe the catcher’s interference against Reddick gets called and the Astros get a win in Game 1 and everything is different.
Suffice it to say that, from a Nats’ fan perspective, Grienke had NO BEEF with the strike zone overall, that one pitch notwithstanding. A lot of his early effectiveness was oriented around throwing pitches out of the zone that the ump called strikes. Hey, credit to Greinke – if the umpire is going to call a ball a strike, why would you throw one in the zone? In that sense his outing really was “Maddux-like.” And watching Cole and Verlander make “c’mon, man” faces at pitches that were clearly out of the zone got old.
The umpire took the bat out of Zimmerman’s hands in one at bat last night. Cabrera made an out swinging at a two strike pitch that, while out of the zone, the umpire had already called two strikes on. We can play the “if, then” game all night, but overall I do agree that the umpires had a terrible series and I hope that they are able to institute a better way of getting those calls consistent and correct.
Just saw the umpiring report from last night. Astros benefitted on 12 calls last night to only 7 for the Nats.
Having said that- you are right, the umpiring for this series absolutely was dreadful. Frankly ruined what could have been a real special series(being a Nats fan it was still special, but you know what I mean).
for the whole series- Astros benefitted from 60 calls, to only 39 for the Nats.
I’ll believe the Astros got more calls, but generally if we’re talking about the effect of umpiring on a game, I feel like we probably shouldn’t be looking at the raw number of calls that went one way or another. That really doesn’t seem like the right metric.
The leverage index or something should probably be used when assessing pitches. Even the count can change things. So if the umpire gives a generous strike in a 3-0 count, it may not ultimately matter as much as a generous strike in a 3-2 count. Similarly a generous ball in an 0-2 count may not matter as much as a generous ball in a 3-2 count.
Also errors on close pitches maybe shouldn’t matter as much as errors on pitches that weren’t close at all.
I’d be interested also to know if there is any relationship in how the zone is called with the score and inning in the game. This is complete conjecture and I have no proof, but I’ve always suspected that in games where a team has a “big enough” lead after 6 or 7 innings, the umpires seem to really expand the strike zone. I think they ultimately just want the game to end deep down inside. Who can blame them? They spend 3h getting harassed by catchers, batters and dugouts about practically every call from the start of the game.
I get what you’re saying- but when 1 of every 9 pitches that goes to the umpire is wrong- something is majorly wrong there.
Here’s the thing about that call: It was wrong, Hinch should have known that it was wrong, and therefore, Hinch should not have taken Soto’s walk as evidence that Greinke was losing it. The Astros could have survived Greinke having to deal with a man on 1st, one out, and a 1-run lead. They didn’t survive Hinch panicking and pulling Greinke. The ump didn’t force Hinch to pull Greinke. That was where the Astros lost it.
maybe start of the decade you would be right, but in 2019, that’s going to be a hard pull for well just about every single manager except for maybe Davey Martinez.
Its true that the umpiring was poor in this series. The thing is, though, the Astros lost the series despite consistently getting extra strikes when pitching and extra balls when hitting. The Nats had to overcome the umpires and the Astros to get their well deserved title. …the one bad strike call to Soto notwithstanding.
I realize the commenter also notes that the Astros benefitted from calls… but I still find it completely ridiculous to make such a big deal about that one strike at the bottom of the zone to Soto in a game the Astros led 2-1 and needed 8 more outs to win the Series. (1) Greinke was clearly pitching Soto very carefully, (2) the pitch was not the end of the at bat, (3) even when Soto walks, he’s only the tying run, and he’s only at first. Not to mention that the Nats had several critical calls go against them in big situations in this very game (a couple ridiculous strike calls to Zimm with a runner in scoring position in top of the fifth come to mind). Greinke’s dominance – while almost certainly due to a fantastic individual performance – was definitely aided by a wide and inconsistent strike zone.
The umps struggled at times with the strike zone in this series, but to whine about it costing the Astros the game is just too much.
I would put it a little differently. I think that random ball-and-strike calls change the character of the game, and they affect different teams differently. Free-swinging teams and teams of wild fireball pitchers are less affected; their approach works just as well when the umps are flipping coins. Teams that command the strike zone, like both the Nats and Astros, suffer much more — they have to abandon the approach that got them to the WS, or accept random injustice.
[Insert ranting digression about pitch framing here.]
So I can’t tell you who was hurt more by the inaccurate ball-and-strike umpiring, but I do know that it meant America didn’t really get to see exactly those Nats and exactly those Astros that earned the best records in baseball since May.
Rachael, great reflection on… everything. Are you in Vancouver, BC? And if so, can I please propose a Vancouver FanGraphs meet-up?
Check out Scherzer at 11:06 jigging to celebrate Kendrick’s hit in the 8th. Pretty cute. Feeling no pain in the neck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8O2WhzjjSc
A.J. Hinch confirmed that he was saving Cole for if they got a lead. You can debate pulling Greinke and whether Harris was the best option then, but one thing is absolutely certain, IF you think Cole is your best option to use in that game then you use him at some point regardless of what the score is. How is that not obvious to someone who does this professionally?
When I read that Hinch was saving Cole for keeping a lead, my suspicions that maybe Hinch isn’t the genius that he’s been made out to be changed immediately to wonderment that anyone has ever thought he was a genius. He did realize that the Astros were the home team, didn’t he? Therefore according to that plan he couldn’t possibly use Cole in extra innings. So he could only have been thinking of using Cole in the 9th. But Cole is normally a starter, right? And he is their best pitcher, right? So why would you wait to use him until the 9th?
Who knew that AJ Hinch was a member of the Buck Showalter club????
the one thing I will say- we can’t assume that Cole would have been good on Wednesday night. We have no clue how he responds after throwing 110 pitches 2 days prior. Maybe he’s good, but maybe he’s not. No where near the guarantee I think some are making it out to be.
Beautiful story, Rachael; thanks for sharing.
As a Nats fan, I’d like to dedicate this WS championship to Anon21
somebody better check on him….
2010’s championships
Nationals 1
Dodgers 0
The Nationals started their post-season run in the NL wildcard game against the Brewers by overcoming a 3-1 deficit in the bottom of the 8th inning. They ended it by slaying the “King of the Monsters” in the 7th game of the WS while losing every home game and winning every road game (never been done before). Along the way, they also had to slay one of the other two monsters known as the LA Dodgers. (The “King” slew the third monster known as the NY Yankees in the ALCS.) They accomplished all this despite their shallow bullpen. Amazing! Great job Nats – congratulations!
You forgot the 3-1 deficit in the 8th inning of game 5 against the Dodgers.
Beautifully written.
As for the choice to bring in Harris, there were many ways to play it, but there is nothing wrong with bringing in the Astros most effective reliever this post-season in that spot. He had given up only one run in 9 innings to that point. After the game, Kendrick said he was hoping that Harris would not pitch him up in the zone because he wasn’t getting to those and was looking for something down and away. He got it and it just happened to go out. It wasn’t a bad pitch. Sometimes bad results happen on good pitches.
He was also their most exhausted reliever at the time, who’d given up a homer the day before. And he’d struck out 4 of the last 19 batters he’d faced, not exactly blowing them out.
Rachael, I always love your perspective, your stories, and your writing. Thank you. I especially enjoyed this part of this excellent piece of writing:
“But what is baseball? There is baseball — the physical actions that comprise the game. And there is baseball — all the other things, the rules and the people and the history and the business. And somewhere in between those two is the baseball that we all care about so much. The baseball that feels so specific to each person, the baseball that’s somehow the same for everyone.”
Well we got that ugly cry out of the way for today
I was down-voted mercilessly when, in the article about their victory over Milwaukee in the Wild Card game, I commented that the Nationals would actually benefit from not having home field advantage.
I accept your collective apology.
A single outlier doesn’t negate an entire case of statistical probability.
…unless it was anticipated and predicted beforehand, as I did. I also accept YOUR apology. I shall carry that prediction all the way to first base.
You didn’t predict the actual outcome. You only gave a false statistical claim, which is still false even with the outlying conclusion. The fact remains that the Nats DIDN’T benefit from not having home field advantage. Their talent and luck simply allowed them to win so often on the road despite having that disadvantage.
Looking back at the playoff predictions, let’s give a cookie to Jason Martinez! He correctly predicted the entire postseason bracket!
2nd time in 4 years that NL DH was a pretty big factor in the World Series. Kendrick was 5-16 in the World Series as DH with a walk and homer and 3 rbi.
Well the Expos did win that contrived “Division Series” against Philadelphia in 1981, Also very enjoyable read.
Why am I crying in the club?
you know watching the pitch that was the bad call for Greinke in the Soto at bat…..
The Astros Catchers took the ball from where it was quickly and moved it to the middle of the plate…
Almost think the framing there cost them…..