The White Sox Looming Decision

If there was one overarching theme of this last offseason, it was the surprise push towards contention from a lot of teams that didn’t quite look quite ready to win. The Padres were the most aggressive unexpected buyer, eschewing rebuilding to instead load up for a run in 2015, but they weren’t the only team to decide to capitalize on the current unprecedented level of parity in the sport. Over in the AL, the White Sox made a similar series of moves, bringing in Jeff Samardzija, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, and Zach Duke in their offseason makeover. With Chris Sale and Jose Abreu at the top of their games, Rick Hahn decided to push in on 2015 and see if they could follow in the Royals footsteps.

The pre-season forecasts, though, never really bought into it. On Opening Day, our Playoff Odds page had the White Sox going 78-84, with just an 8% chance of winning the AL Central and a 6% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots; the Rangers and Twins were the only AL teams with a lower chance of reaching the postseason. There was a scenario where things broke right and the White Sox became legitimate contenders — the Astros are currently in the midst of that scenario at the moment — but it was going to require the team’s role players step up and fill some of the areas where the team was expected to get replacement level production.

That hasn’t happened.

The forecasts saw big holes at catcher, second base, third base, right field, and the last two spots in the rotation; so far, Tyler Flowers, Micah Johnson, Conor Gillaspie, Avisail Garcia, John Danks, and Hector Noesi have all been below replacement level. That’s just too many voids for a contender, and when guys like LaRoche, Cabrera, and Samardzija struggle too, then you end getting pummeled by a lousy Twins team on your way to an 8-14 record after the season’s first month.

That’s where the White Sox are today, after getting outscored 31-8 in their four game series against Minnesota. And it’s not like they’ve played better than their record; by BaseRuns, they should actually be 7-15, and have played worse than any other team in baseball, including the Brewers, the team that just fired their manager. The White Sox aren’t actually the worst team in baseball, but this isn’t a team that has played well and just run into some bad luck, or given up runs at the wrong time; they’ve just been straight up awful.

Given the fact that Chicago is now staring at a seven game deficit to the Tigers, with the Royals only a half game behind Detroit, their already-low Playoff Odds have now sunk to the floor. As of this morning, our forecasts give the White Sox a 2% chance of winning the division and a 3% chance of capturing a Wild Card spot; they’re still ahead of the Rangers and Twins, but now just barely ahead of Minnesota, and they’re hanging out in the same range as teams who either have admitted that they’re building for the future or are about to be.

And so now, we’re about to find out just how committed to 2015 Rick Hahn really is. There is still theoretically time for the season to turn around, but the White Sox don’t really have 140 more games in which to try and overcome their slow start, because 56 of those games come after the July 31st trade deadline; their final decision point will come around Game 100 or so. So they have roughly 80 games to get back in the race, and if Detroit and Kansas City play at even their modest projected rest-of-season winning percentages, the White Sox would have to play ~.650 baseball to overtake them by the end of July. I love Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, but I don’t see a scenario where this roster is capable of winning two out of every three games for three months.

So, now, the question is how long of a leash Hahn gives this roster before he starts exploring present-for-future trades. Doug Melvin has already raised the white flag in Milwaukee, but noted over the weekend how difficult it is to find a trade partner in May:

“There’s not many teams looking to make moves at this time of year,” said Melvin. “Very few teams are open to taking on money at this time of year. You get similar answers: ‘We’re still looking at our club right now.’

“The frustrating part is you would like to make some moves and do some things. But, early in the year, the only thing you can do is (between) your club and Triple-A. Those moves aren’t as impactful as we’d like to be able to do.”

You can’t sell if no one is buying, but at the same time, waiting too long to sell could be especially problematic for teams like Chicago and Milwaukee. While both teams have some players of value who could be traded, neither team is likely to trade their franchise players; I don’t expect we’ll see Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Sale, or Jose Abreu changing teams any time soon. And both teams are in their current positions because their role players aren’t as good as they needed to be, so they’re generally marketing low-performing guys who aren’t that great to begin with.

And once the trade season really heats up, those guys are going to become Plan C or Plan D for teams actively looking to buy. Jeff Samardzija is a nice trade chip, but he’s not Johnny Cueto, and if the White Sox wait for the Reds to fall out of the race, Samardzija is very quickly going to become a secondary option. The Cubs anticipated this same problem last year, trading Samardzija to Oakland on July 5th, but the White Sox probably shouldn’t even wait that long this year. At that point, the Reds are likely to be at least listening to offers for Cueto, even if they probably won’t trade him until after the All-Star Game in Cincinnati on July 14th.

While the White Sox will need Samardzija to start pitching better in order to re-establish his value, I’d imagine their best chance at getting a strong return is by selling early enough to put some separation between he and the rest of the starting pitching market, as well as giving the buyer more starts than if they wait until July. The Red Sox, for instance, may be able to be lured into a deal for Samardzija sooner than later, given their desire to avoid long-term commitments to starting pitchers. The Dodgers seem content to plow through every arm they have in Triple-A before they make a trade, but they’re another potential buyer who likely sees value in giving a bit less to shore up their regular season rotation knowing they don’t need another ace to make two starts in October.

And, of course, Samardzija isn’t the only guy the White Sox can sell. Alexei Ramirez is off to a horrendous start, but still projects as a league average shortstop going forward; teams like the Padres could get a significant boost from replacing their flotsam with a guy who can still play the position and hit a bit. But again, Milwaukee might also put Jean Segura on the block as part of their blow-it-up plan, so there’s probably a benefit to striking first, making a deal early rather than hoping that another contender who should have a strong interest in Ramirez emerges.

That isn’t to say the White Sox have to start the firesale tomorrow. There is still the core of a good team here, but there are just too many weak spots for this roster to make a real serious run in 2015. It could have worked, but it just didn’t, and now it’s probably time for the White Sox to start looking towards 2016 again. Swap out some of the go-for-it pieces they acquired over the winter for things that will help more next year, and then spend the next nine months trying to make sure that the scrubs around the the 2016 stars aren’t quite so scrubby.