MLB Attendance So Far and a Call for Doubleheaders
At its best, baseball is an outdoor, summer sport. In order to fit 162 games and the playoffs into the calendar, Major League Baseball is forced to start in late March or early April and end in late October or early November when the weather is less likely to cooperate. Attendance is up roughly 500 fans per game in the early part of the season, and the fans have turned out in Kansas City and San Diego after a playoff run and an acquisition-rich offseason, respectively. MLB has publicized shorter games, although it is not clear what kind of effect that would have on attendance. All teams, especially those in the northern half of the country have been able to take advantage of good weather, and MLB should do its best to get fewer games played when the weather is not best for baseball.
Here is a graph showing average per game attendance through Sunday’s games, per Baseball-Reference.
The top six teams are the same as the leaders last season, with the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees flip-flopped. The bottom four are also the same, with the Cleveland Indians sinking below the Tampa Bay Rays. The Kansas City Royals were the sixth lowest drawing team last year despite their playoff run, but the energy from last season has boosted the Royals into the top half of attendance through one month of the season. Here are the top risers and fallers in terms of per game attendance compared to last year through the same number of games, per Baseball Reference.
The Royals have increased attendance over last year by 60% with the fervor generated by the Royals postseason run to the World Series carrying over into 2015. Major acquisitions for the Padres and Chicago White Sox also preceded decent jumps at the gate while the big selloff in Atlanta and very low expectations in Philadelphia and Texas might be keeping fans away from the ballpark.
The hot starts for the Houston Astros and New York Mets are likely beneficial in terms of k generating fans in general, as we saw last year with the Royals, in-season wins do not have a great effect on the number of fans that attend in any given year. The graph below shows a scatter plot for wins and attendance over the past four seasons.
For those four seasons, r was just .33. Wins in the previous season had a greater correlation to attendance with r equaling .41. Wins might be helpful in bringing fans to games, but so is the weather. Despite the excitement of the early season games after a winter away from baseball, attendance tends to grow as the season moves forward. Last year, the average attendance per game at the end of the year was approximately 1,500 fans higher than the average through this point in the season. April weather hurts attendance more in cold weather areas before attendance picks up in the summer. Here is a graph showing the difference in attendance in 2014 between this point in the season and end of the season totals.
Some of the increases and decreases could be due to in season competitiveness, but almost all of the big gainers are in cold-weather areas regardless of ability to win and the biggest drops occur in areas where the weather is generally very good at the start of the season. MLB started this season one week later than it has in the past, and outside of the Chicago Cubs postponing the second game of the season after their Opening Night debacle, there were no other postponements during the first two weeks of the baseball season.
Starting the season one week into April instead of at the very end of March or first few days in April could be a benefit for teams in terms of attendance and fans who wish to attend more games when the weather is better. The unfortunate effect of that form of scheduling is playing World Series games in November with the Fall Classic set to begin on October 27th this year. Increased attention is on MLB during the World Series and it is not clear whether the potential for a public relations issue due to snow or other bad weather in the World Series is worth the possibility of increased attendance and potentially better weather for the games that are played in April.
One potential, but underused solution for the weather problem at the beginning and end of the schedule are day-night doubleheaders. Day-night doubleheaders do occur from time to time, but they are generally used to make up previously postponed games. Very rarely are they scheduled before the season. Last season, the Chicago Cubs played a day-night doubleheader against the Washington Nationals on June 28th. This doubleheader was scheduled before the season in order to avoid a game on June 29th due to the expected congestion from Chicago’s Pride Parade. Both games were fairly well attended, with the two game average of 34,019 well exceeding Chicago’s April average of 30,646 and also above the season average of 32,742. The games were played on a Saturday in the summer when attendance is expected to be higher than normal, and losing the Sunday game probably cost the Cubs some fans, but if that game were to replace a cold, April game, the Cubs and their fans likely would have benefited.
There are several barriers to scheduling day-night doubleheaders. Assuming the day-night doubleheaders are held on Saturdays in the summer, a day off would likely be needed on the following Monday. Having two games on the same day creates some issues for the team with clearing out the stadium and then preparing it for action again as well as the employees who would need to work longer days or necessitate additional staffing.
The burden on the players is also greater, and prior to the last Collective Bargaining Agreement, day-night doubleheaders could not be scheduled without special circumstances and the permission of the players’ union. Under the current CBA, teams are allowed to schedule one day-night doubleheader per season, and teams are allowed an extra roster spot on those days, but no teams take advantage of that rule. Even if every team scheduled one doubleheader, that is two days the season could be shortened. An additional allowed home game per team would take almost a week off the season and allow the playoffs to start at the beginning of October even with this season’s late start date. This would be a difficult transition for players as they negotiate the arduous summer, but keeping the current 162-game, multiple-round postseason model employed by MLB while playing games when the sport is most enjoyable should be prioritized.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
The White Sox bump is purely due to an increase in season ticket holders (I’ve estimated they had a 2k-3k increase in STHs last offseason) and based on the April weather and on field play I think if you compared the ‘butts-in-seats’ attendance numbers between 2015 and 2014 they would be very little change.
Do Orioles attendance figures include the 0 attendance game?
I would actually think that baseball could benefit from shortening spring training by a week and beginning the season in late March, with a more spread-out schedule and/or earlier end to postseason. But maybe, as you suggest here, this would not boost attendance but rather would limit it.
They do indeed. And also the three games played in Tampa Bay. Not fair in the slightest.
I was just curious. In the scheme of things, the least of anyone’s worries: there’s much more unfair to go around.
I have always thought that it would make sense to have a “doubleheader day in America”, much like the current Fox promotion of “Baseball Night in America” which they have used for the past few seasons. I believe it would make good sense for MLB to utilize 1 DH per month for each team (always on Saturdays), with an off day following that Monday. I am open to all of the DH being on the same day each month, or teams having a choice. Obviously, in terms of scheduling they would have to make sure that the games are evened out in terms of home/road throughout the season.
I would also be open to this only being an April-July/August thing, but, it might be very interesting if the last day of the season was on a Saturday in September in which every team played a doubleheader. It would open up so many more scenarios for an exciting last day of the season (much like the 1967 AL pennant chase). Also, MLB could avoid a head-on collision with the NFL and the finale of the MLB season on that Sunday.
If we just added the doubleheader once a month, you would have 6 days freed up in which you could use to avoid the World Series from going into November with, delay the season beginning with, or establish more potential off days with. Each team would, in effect, host 3 doubleheaders. The MLBPA has to understand that most players do not play both ends of the DH anyways, and gaining an off day may be more beneficial. Owners should realize that maximizing Saturday dates is in their best interest, if they do so at the expense of other less attractive dates.
This could be a win-win for the players and owners, and the fans could gain one day a month that is a total overload of America’s Pastime and the opportunity for a wild final day of the season.
I think I have heard suggestions of an Ernie Banks Day in which all teams would play doubleheaders. I like that suggestion as well.
Craig, do you have any data about television viewership on day-night doubleheaders, whether originally scheduled as such or not? I would guess that fans are less likely to tune into two separate games in a single day than they would be to tune into those two separate games over the course of two different days, but I don’t know if the difference is enough to be significant.
excellent question. taking this further, is it silly that we think of “attendance” as a seats old / physical number rather than the total viewers watching a game?
Clearly the dollars track the latter, not the former…
I 100% love the idea of bringing back scheduled day-night doubleheaders. I remember going to one when I was much younger, when the Padres came to play the Phillies. I had a blast (my brothers and Dad, who love baseball considerably less than me, enjoyed it much less), and I would love to be able to do that again.
I’d also add that, in addition to scheduling the doubleheaders, MLB should make events out of them. Your team’s doubleheader is coming up! There are going to be games! Mascots! Prizes to be won! Awesome, once-a-season only giveaways! Market it to kids heavily, and they’ll nag their parents until they take em. You’ll be drawing in kids and making fans for life! Wouldn’t that be nice?
“arduous” summer? please. great idea, though. a child of the 70’s, i fondly remember *regular* sunday doubleheaders.
I think every team should have a home day-night doubleheader on either a Tuesday or Wednesday starting around early to mid-May and going for 15 weeks (each team would also play one on the road). This would ensure day baseball on almost every day (except Fridays) for about half the season, and I think it would work fine. Perfect world – all of these games are picked up by MLBN playing the home team’s feed as well.
I’ve often thought we should have two Saturdays during the summer, maybe right after the All-Star break, where every team has a doubleheader scheduled. And why not try the traditional doubleheaders, although those might have to be on a Sunday. The Sunday crowd is usually smaller, so this might help boost the Sunday draw if they were traditional doubleheaders. Rosters could be expanded to 28 or so for the entire weekend. The Union might like that part of it. MLB could market it as Mega Baseball Weekend (or Saturday).
Baltimore’s attendance improvement must be better than presented, as they had one home game with 0 attendance, and 3 home games in St. Petersburg.
So the Astro’s fans are not coming back yet…
it’s going to take a whole lot more than a hot start to bring Astros fans back……they had to have felt like management spent a decade showing minimal effort to really try and win, and as an Oriole fan I know what that feels like.
So if the Indians have gained attendance, and Tampa has lost, how is it that Cleveland sank below TB in overall attendance?
Tampa lost attendance May-Sept while Cleveland gained so Cleveland had higher attendance overall last year, but is lower at this point in the season. The same will probably happen this year.
Also, I went to the Indians game on Thursday night. It was *cold*. Like, 45 at game time, people under blankets. And they’ve been terrible so far, so I can imagine it didn’t top many people’s to-do list to sit in awful weather to watch an awful team. (“Awful” year-to-date, and versus preseason expectations, in a non-divisional matchup.)
Plus it was BLEAK in Cleveland that day. I thought there was a chance that the game would be called due to bleakness.
(Charles Dickens wrote “Bleak House”. I can only presume that house was located in Cleveland.)
Looks like it’s time for a reboot of the first Major League:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDZ_lSJjgvk&t=80s
I wonder if the players would go for that if it were part of a package that included a 26th roster spot (all season, not just on double-header days) and the adoption of the DH in the NL. (Although I’d prefer to eliminate the DH, personally.)
I guess the number one consideration is whether the players want double-headers. With the modern bullpen usage, it’s going to be harder than ever to play them. In any given game, teams will likely use more than half their bullpen, which will not work if you have another game to play in a few hours.
I’m sure it would be fun to have some, but there are more legitimate reasons not to do it. I feel like they’d almost have to allow teams to call up a few extra arms for the second game for it to work.
Thinking about it, the better solution is really just to shorten the season by a few games.
Seems like none of you guys have had to manage a 7-man bullpen.
Traditional doubleheaders would be even better than day-night doubleheaders. The players don’t like the long break between games with the latter. With the traditional doubleheader, fans are offered admission to both games with a single ticket and the second game begins 30 minutes after the first one. This is a glorious thing for the fans, and the players don’t have to sit around between games for three hours.
Elect me commissioner and I will bring back traditional doubleheaders.
But then you lose ticket revenue by effective offering half price tickets through the whole ballpark for both games.
Eh, you could probably figure out a win-win on that. If a single-game ticket is $30, make the doubleheader ticket $50 (for example). You would conceivably lose a little on the fans who would have attended both at $30 a pop, but you would make some on the folks who would have attended one or the other but not both (when played on separate days).
You know what’s wrong the problem with baseball attendance? We don’t have enough expensive tickets to events that last the length of two games which many already consider overly long on their own!
Yeah, I guess doubleheaders don’t have as much attraction when the games are already stretching 3-plus hours as they would if the games were humming along in around two. Fair point.
A slight premium to the full doubleheader ticket, plus the ability to move concessions during 7, 8, 9 inning of game one and the interregnum period would balance revenues pretty trivially.
Insane idea: MiLB single admission doubleheaders take the form of two seven-inning games. Solves a lot of problems. (Reason for this is two 9 inning games would have players gassed beyond belief and pitchers unavailable to go, which defeats the purpose of AAA ball.)
“Reason for this is two 9 inning games would have players gassed beyond belief”
I don’t want to be the “back in my day” guy, but geez, double-headers used to be fairly commonplace and players didn’t have to be rushed off from exhaustion or anything. I think they could handle it once a month or so, especially with a DH Sunday, day-off Monday.
It seems odd to talk about increasing attendance throughout the year in reference to temperature without considering actual temperature. Sure, you can make the argument that increased temperature leads to increased attendance, but using temperature instead of month would make more sense for that. I’m not sure a 110 degree day in July in Dallas draws more than an 80 degree day in April.
Not including any discussion of school schedules also seems strange. Parents don’t want to take their kids to a 7:10pm start time game when they have school the next morning.
I’m not making a claim that there are relationships, just that these things probably should have been included in this investigation.
Absolutely! Same with competitiveness – it is mentioned & dismissed… I don’t buy that for a second. Maybe a bad team doesn’t draw less… but a GOOD team definitely draws more in Aug/Sep.
Curious if teams that play in climate controlled environments see less variation in attendance over a season? Agree that it was weird that school schedules were not considered nor was competition from other active sports.
I do like the idea of a league wide double hitter day, maybe around the All Star break when most players would be getting extra rest.
does anyone know a good website that compiles attendance figures on a game by game basis? Espn is good for absolute numbers but they are cumulative and you cannot tease out any usable numbers (other then average and total attendance)Or do i have to go game by game in the boxscores. This is a subject I am very interested in and would like to look into it further.
The “schedules and results” section of any team page on bb-ref has game-by-game attendance figures. For example, here’s this season’s Orioles:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2015-schedule-scores.shtml
If you look at any team-season on baseball-reference.com, the “schedule and results” page includes (official) attendance. For example — because I happen to have the tab open — here’s the 2014 Mariners. It’s easy enough to filter out just the home games and then do the same for each of the other 29 teams; it gets arduous if you’re trying to do that for multiple years. In that case you’re better off using Retrosheet.org EVA files, which also include attendance.
How much would you anticipate the Cubs attendance number changing when they re-open the bleachers?
Not only did the Braves gut their team to build for the future, but they’re also moving to a new stadium in a couple of years.
It’s no surprise that attendance in Atlanta is way down this year, and it will remain down next year.
Last season, I went to a Twins game in late April and there were piles of plowed snow almost as high as my head. This season, I went to a Twins game in late April and I got a sunburn.
I see your point about the importance of weather.
And yet you went regardless.
Well sure, a FG reader/commenter will still go, but will random guy living 30 minutes outside the city who is also considering going to a movie or just staying in for the night?
how about 8 weekend doubleheaders per year all intradivision? You get one home and one away series among teams that are probably each other’s biggest rivals. To address fatigue, I say you permit 27 rostered players each game of the weekend series, but you must de-activate any two players before each game so you’re still playing with 25 each game.
And if a game on the following Monday is a concern, you get to keep one of your 26/27th man callups as a 26th man.
And with the season being approximately 25 weeks, making each doubleheader 3 weeks apart, the 6th SP can stay on regular rest each series
“teams are allowed an extra roster spot on those days, but no teams take advantage of that rule.”
not true. I believe many teams call up an extra pitcher from AAA for such days. At least, the A’s have done so several time since this rule was enacted.
The rule I was referring to was the one that allowed scheduling doubleheaders before the season. When there are doubleheaders, you are correct that teams take advantage, usually with an extra pitcher.