The Windians Aren’t Going Away

After the Cubs ended their curse and title drought last fall, there was talk about a potential dynasty having arrived. There’s been less talk of that this season after the Cubs stumbled for much of the first half. While Chicago has one of the oldest pitching staffs (average age of 30.9 years) in the game, they’ve played at a higher level in the second half.

Elsewhere, a prominent magazine recently devoted its cover to the Dodgers, wondering if this year’s version of the club might be the “Best. Team. Ever?” And it’s a team, despite its recent skid, that remains six games ahead of its closest NL competitor, a team with a number of young, cornerstone stars.

Finally, it wouldn’t be surprising to observe the Yankees transform into a hegemonic power in the AL East. Their impressive young core has begun to arrive — and arrive ahead of schedule. And just about everyone expects them to be big players, and winners, in the historic 2018-19 free-agency class.

We’re in an age when the big-market clubs have begun to operate more efficiently, using strategies adopted by smaller-market teams just looking to compete. In each of the last two years, Craig Edwards has found an increasingly strong relationship between payroll and wins, one that could very well be exacerbated by the 2018-19 free-agency class, as well as the prospect of better training and nutrition (thereby leading to more productive, more expensive free-agent seasons).

So when we think about the next possible dynasties in the game, it’s necessary to think of the Cubs, the Dodgers, and the Yankees and as logical candidates. Big-payroll, big-market teams.

But perhaps there’s another potential dynasty — or at least potential for sustained excellence — ready to emerge elsewhere. Not in a big market, but in Cleveland.

There’s been a lot of Indians-related content published at FanGraphs recently and rightly so, as only the 1935 Cubs and 2017 Indians have won 21 straight games. The Indians will try to make it 22 on Thursday evening for the outright record. (Sorry, 1916 Giants.)

Cleveland nearly won a World Series title last October, of course, with a starting rotation depleted by injury, down their second and third arms. They’ve emerged as the favorite to return there this season with what is perhaps the best rotation of all time, as Jeff noted last week. They lead baseball in run differential. The Indians have few weaknesses.

It’s not just the present, however, but also the future that should have the Cleveland fanbase excited.

Staff ace and perhaps the new AL Cy Young favorite Corey Kluber is under contract through 2021. Over the next four years, assuming the two club options are exercised, Kluber will make $51.4 million. He’s a good bet to produce nine-digit surplus value over the life of the deal.

Indians No. 2 starter Carlos Carrasco is under contract through 2020. Over the next three years, including two club options, he’s owed $27.5 million.

Trevor Bauer has reached another level of performance, pitching like another top-of-rotation arm since June. He will be arbitration eligible for the first time this winter. Another Indians starting pitcher shoving like an ace recently, Mike Clevinger, isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2020.

All four were acquired via trade.

Danny Salazar had made a performance leap before hitting the DL for a second time last month. He’s not eligible for free agency until 2021. He’s another high-upside arm.

No rotation has ever been better for a single season, and it’s a group entirely under club control through 2020.

In the pipeline is Triston McKenzie, a lanky right-hander who emerged as one of the best pitching prospects in the game this summer as he led the minor leagues in strikeouts.

The Indians not only have an elite rotation in place, but — barring a series of injuries — also an enviable position-player group.

Before the season, Jose Ramirez signed a four-year, $26 million extension that will keep him with the club through 2023 if both club options are exercised. Given that Ramirez would be an MVP favorite in a world without Mike Trout and Jose Altuve, it’s a steal of a contract for the club.

While the club would like to lock up Francisco Lindor to an extension, he reportedly turned down a $100 million extension last offseason. Still, he’s not eligible to hit the open market until 2022 at the earliest.

While Bradley Zimmer had an uneven offensive performance as rookie, his defense and baserunning give him a floor as an up-the-middle regular in center field. A broken hand will likely keep him out of the rest of the season. Catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez are signed to multi-year deals, with the bat of top position prospect Francisco Mejia ready for ML action.

What it all means is the Indians have a young, up-the-middle core under control through the early 2020s.

The window for the Windians is open now and appears like it’s going to be open for a while, particularly in a division where the Tigers and White Sox are committed to rebuilding, the Royals’ core will likely be broken up this winter, and the surprising Twins’ run differential of plus-eight is not suggestive of dominant force.

Lindor (No. 5), Kluber (No. 10), and Ramirez (No. 15) ranked in the top 20 of Dave’s trade value series this summer. Carrasco ranked 28th. There resides a lot, a lot, of surplus value.

While there are perhaps some large-market super teams under construction, or already having been built, the Indians represent a potential small-market power. Dynasties are difficult to build. Winning multiple titles in a short period of time is unlikely. But the Indians are built to have multiple trips to the postseason table.