The Worst Called Ball of the First Half
A few months ago, Carson ran his broadcaster crowdsourcing project. When the results rolled in, reviews for the White Sox home TV broadcast were mixed. That being said, people had a lot of good things to say about Jason Benetti, who’s a newer presence to the production. I bring this up because I’m about to quote Benetti, and I’m about to quote Benetti because, well, you’ll understand. What did the worst called ball of the season’s first half look like? We’ll get to that. But here’s the White Sox TV reaction:
Benetti: Oh, that’s ball one. And maybe only because Perez dropped it.
Stone: Right down the middle, belt-high.
Benetti: Some folks on the web like to pick out the worst non-strike call of the season. That gets calculated by some baseball fans who watch the game at length. And we — that is a definite possibility for worst ball of the season.
You’re all right, Jason Benetti. You’re all right. And you nailed that son of a bitch.
The regular season is roughly half over, and the worst called ball we’ve seen took place on April 19. The pitch was thrown in Chicago, and it was thrown to Brett Lawrie by Matt Shoemaker, with Carlos Perez behind the plate. Perez was just demoted to the minor leagues, after opening the year as the starter, and while Perez wasn’t demoted because of this one called ball, you could use it as an indication of how so little for Perez has gone right. Not that it was all about Perez. It’s never all about the catcher. Umpire Chris Conroy had to make the decision he did. And, what’s Lawrie doing taking this first pitch, anyway? Responsibility is typically shared. This wasn’t a one-man operation.
It’s no mystery what messed Conroy up. Sometimes you see the catcher suddenly throw to a base. Sometimes you see the catcher drag a pitch out of the zone. In this case, Perez just plain didn’t make the catch. Shoemaker missed by some amount — pitchers usually miss by some amount — but, I’ll remind you, this was a Matt Shoemaker fastball. This pitch wasn’t darting. This pitch wasn’t doing anything deceptive. Perez just got his glove turned around, and then he fumbled the baseball. That’s an unusual event, and umpires aren’t trained well to respond accurately to unusual events. Conroy’s focus immediately went from a ball in flight to a ball on the ground, and when you see a ball on the ground, your brain tells you that pitch was probably low. Why else would it have been hard to catch? This is how Matt Shoemaker threw ball one with a first-pitch fastball that was 1.2 inches from the middle of the strike zone.
Last November, I wrote about the worst called ball of the 2015 season, and that one went against the White Sox. It went in favor of the Angels. Kole Calhoun benefited from a ball on a heater down the middle the catcher couldn’t catch. I’m not saying the universe is necessarily intelligently designed, but that’s at least a hell of a coincidence, and a nice way to even things out without any lingering grudges. Let’s now get back to this individual pitch. Very obviously, the pitch was exceptional, and this is a plot from Baseball Savant showing the location of all of Matt Shoemaker’s 2016 called balls:
Find the worst one! It’s like Where’s Waldo?, where you’re looking inside an empty warehouse, and Waldo is a bright yellow Ferrari. To Shoemaker’s credit, after the pitch, he didn’t try to show up the umpire with any negative body language. And honestly, at that point in the year, a called ball on a pitch down the middle was better than most of the other results Shoemaker’s pitches were getting. But there was nothing at all weird about the pitch. Shoemaker doesn’t throw unusually hard, or unusually soft. If he had a particularly deceptive fastball, his improvement wouldn’t be so closely tied to throwing way fewer fastballs. Here is a necessary screenshot:
For your benefit, some red lines estimating location, just to really drive it home:
The purpose of the red lines is this: You can’t argue the lines. That image isn’t in any other way doctored. You’re seeing the real location, over the middle, at the thigh. It’s only by seeing that image that you can really appreciate the following image, without any hint of suspicion that you’re looking at a Gameday glitch:
That image also includes your happy ending — the Angels didn’t get hurt by the mistake. Not meaningfully, anyway. Maybe Shoemaker had to throw an extra pitch or two, but he struck Lawrie out, and that was that. I can’t tell who actually did the worst here. Perez dropped a fastball down the middle. Conroy called a ball on a fastball down the middle. Shoemaker threw two fastballs down the middle. Lawrie took two fastballs down the middle. Two Matt Shoemaker fastballs down the middle, back when Shoemaker’s ERA was climbing into the 9s. Taking a first pitch, I get. Taking that pitch again at 3-and-1? I’m not sure what Lawrie was thinking. The more I think about it, the more he comes out looking the worst.
But now I’m off track. Lawrie messed up, sure, but this is really about that first call. The White Sox TV broadcast was all over it. They immediately identified that the pitch was right down the middle. Here’s the alternate feed:
Rojas: Lawrie hitless with a strikeout and a fly ball to left. [pitch delivered] That’s low. In the seventh, we’ll have Calhoun, Simmons, and Cron coming up.
So Angels TV didn’t have anything. White Sox radio didn’t have anything. As for Angels radio, here’s Terry Smith. This looks like an ordinary .gif, but there is sound attached, so if you have the chance, turn your volume on.
Listen again, carefully. You get some background, then a call, then a sponsorship message. If you pay attention to the sponsorship message, Smith stumbles over the word “oil.” It happens quickly, and it’s not so garbled you don’t know what he means just from context, but he definitely mispronounces a three-letter word. It’s like he swallows something right in the middle of it. Now, Terry Smith knows how to say “oil.” Terry Smith knows how to talk, and he does it literally for a living. But on the fly, Smith had a little bit of a hiccup. He wouldn’t be able to explain it. It doesn’t make sense that it happened. Yet it happened to him, and it happens to all of us. Every so often, for split seconds, we mispronounce simple words. But, man, inexcusable ball call, am I right?
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.




It’s almost like they should start using robots or computers or lasers or something to call balls and strikes.
Seeing as the umps don’t even look at the baseball thrown and instead look at the catcher, I very much agree.
That pitch had plenty of late movement. And, yes, I would say it was “darting.” Maybe a two-seamer. And if Perez was somehow crossed up, that could explain the missed catch.
| And you nailed that son of a bitch.
I so wanted you have a typo here.
This article… might be the best article?
But, how does this pitch compare to this one?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/we-might-already-have-the-seasons-worst-called-ball/
My thoughts exactly. I demand an inquest! Or some light research at least.
Very very barely worse!
I think the Kershaw pitch wins any tie breaker, because if any pitcher in baseball would get a ‘benefit of a doubt’ strike it’d be him. Kind if like how if it were Daniel Cabrera an ump couldn’t be blamed for just assuming it was a ball (or a wild pitch for that matter)
These are always some of my favorite articles of the season.
I quite like your intelligent design hypothesis of baseball. If your hypothesis is correct I predict the following:
1. The Marlins will win a wild card slot, and and get through to the NLCS where they will meet the Cubs.
2. In game six of the NLCS the Marlins will be winning the series 3-2 and the game by a score of 3-0 with one out in the 8th inning.
3. Ben Zobrist will hit a pop foul down the left field line.
4. Christian Yelich will settle comfortably under the fly ball awaiting it to drop safely in his glove to put the Marlins 4 outs away from the World Series.
5. Marlins super-fan Stefano Bartmanero will lean out from the stands and interfere with the catch, though the fan interference call will have been emphatically missed by Cowboy Joe West.
6. After the missed out, the Cubs will go on to score eight unanswered runs and win the game, and ultimately the NLCS.
7. The Cubs will go on to beat an emotionally exhausted but heavily favoured Boston Redsox in the World Series.
That would require the RedSox to make the playoffs.
I love these. I’m sure they can get boring, but when they used to be once a month I loved them.
Carrasco had a terrible one in his last start which led to runs. Right before the double off Chisenhall’s glove if I recall. If anyone could get video of that, it was really bad and Indians announcers went off on the ump.
Yeah, you should be upset about that. Gomes dropped it or something like that, but it was middle-middle. I remember thinking that it should make a list of worst calls here. I sort of assumed that it happened to Tanaka, because I actually remembered it and I’m a Yankee fan.
There was an egregious miss of a first pitch strike by Tanaka. He crossed the catcher up big time but it was clearly a strike. When I saw the pitch I immediately thought of Jeff Sullivan’s articles on the worst called balls. It’s very easy to see which pitch I’m referring to if you click on this very long link:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=3%7C&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&player_lookup%5B%5D=547888&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=&batted_ball_angle_lt=&game_date_gt=2016-07-08&game_date_lt=2016-07-10&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitches&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=#results_pitchChart_name_547888_
Yeah, turns out it WAS Tanaka, to Santana in the second. Whoops.
I don’t recall that one being that terrible, it was definitely a strike but it was the lower part of the zone at least. Dead center in the plate but more like slightly above/at the knees. I believe that batter hit the grounder to Lindor that Santana whiffed on right after that. The 3-1 pitch that Carrasco threw to Ellsbury that was about a foot outside but called a strike was one of the more egregious balls called strikes I’ve seen this year, would’ve even made the guy who called the 19-inning game between Toronto and Cleveland blush. Then Ellsbury hit a home run on the next pitch. Poor Carrasco.
Umps are there to get the call right the first time. There ball-strike calls should be calculated and the umps with too may blown calls – back to the minors.
Too many safe/out calls reversed, back to the minors. Too many foul balls blown down the line – back to the minors.
And now you’re down an ump. So you promote one from the minors to take his place? How’s that worked out?
1) You really can’t fault Lawrie for not swinging at the 5th pitch. I mean, he just saw the exact same pitch and it was called a ball. I’m sure he was expecting some consistency out of the ump.
2) Speaking of Angels’ radio mispronouncing a word, is it just me or did he say “bottom of the sex…”
Some umps shift their zone high, some low, while others shift them high. I guess Lawrie believed this umpire was more a fan of the donut strike zone. Who doesn’t like donuts?
Clearly the umpires hands were cold and ready to go back to his pocket warmers ASAP.
Jeff, if you are still following the discussion here:
How about looking into the pitchers that have had the most egregious called balls go against them? I’ve noticed this season that umpires often miss Betances’ curve. It seems to me that this pitch has so much sharp break to it that umpires have nearly as difficult a time with it as the hitters do. It might be interesting to see if there is some pattern where pitchers with outlier ‘stuff’ have more called balls simply because the umpires have a difficult time tracking the ball as well.
Got to see Dickey on the Mets a bunch of times, and the umps didn’t seem to blow calls any more or less. Then again, Thole seemed to be pretty good at catching the knuckler. I wonder if bad knuckle ball receivers really cost strikes at a significantly higher rate.
So umpires don’t actually look at and track the baseballs being thrown, they simply watch the catcher. That explains a lot. I personally find that to be really messed up.
Brett Lawrie: 60 grade tools, 20 grade baseball IQ.