The Yankees Probably Need to Make a Trade
The season has gone pretty well for the Yankees thus far. Sure, the team brought in Neil Walker and Brandon Drury in the offseason and they are currently below replacement level; however, those two were acquired as placeholders for Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, and the two prospects are already succeeding in the big leagues, leaving the performance of the acquisitions moot. Greg Bird got hurt again and Tyler Austin wasn’t great. Giancarlo Stanton has only been good and not great, but Aaron Judge has been great, and Didi Gregorius and Gary Sanchez have been good while Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks have exceeded expectations. Yankees position players lead the American League in WAR at 13 and are projected to top all of baseball the rest of the way.
On the pitching side, the Yankees have done pretty well, too. Just as they were projected, the bullpen has been the best in baseball, striking out 32% of batters faced. Luis Severino has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 2.15 FIP that leads all qualified starters in the American League. After Severino, the rotation hasn’t been good, but with the bullpen, the team’s 9.5 WAR is third in all of baseball.
Fortunately for the Yankees, the team’s good results have translated in the win column up to this point with 40 victories. At this moment, they are projected to win more than 100 games and finish with the best record in baseball. The Yankees may be in an enviable position; however, there are some drawbacks to being an immensely talented, super-rich franchise piling up wins like nobody’s business.
The first drawback is their main rival, the Red Sox. Boston is also an immensely talented, super-rich franchise piling up wins, and only one of these two teams is going to win the division. Despite having the two best records in baseball and the highest playoff odds in the game, the Yankees and Red Sox rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in odds of making the division series. One of the two clubs is going to have to fend for itself in the Wild Card game in what will likely be a 50/50 shot against Shohei Ohtani, James Paxton, or maybe even Justin Verlander. Winning the division is going to affect the Yankees’ odds of winning the World Series by 5%-10%, maybe more.
Because the Yankees and Red Sox are both playing at a very high level, should one team slip a bit, the other will likely take advantage. Likewise, if one team could improve by just a win or two, their chances of success in the playoffs would improve considerably. That leads directly to where the Yankees are most likely to slip or improve, which is the rotation. This is what the Yankees’ projected rotation looked like at the beginning of the season.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 187 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | .308 | 75.8% | 3.35 | 3.37 | 4.9 |
| Sonny Gray | 185 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | .302 | 72.5% | 4.03 | 4.07 | 3.3 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 178 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | .303 | 74.0% | 3.82 | 3.88 | 3.6 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 156 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | .304 | 72.4% | 4.42 | 4.47 | 2.1 |
| CC Sabathia | 140 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | .308 | 72.1% | 4.53 | 4.66 | 1.6 |
| Luis Cessa | 55 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | .304 | 69.8% | 5.17 | 5.22 | 0.3 |
| Domingo German | 28 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | .306 | 71.8% | 4.65 | 4.71 | 0.3 |
| Domingo Acevedo | 28 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | .305 | 70.8% | 5.04 | 5.14 | 0.2 |
| Total | 958 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | .305 | 73.0% | 4.11 | 4.16 | 16.3 |
Luis Severino was expected to put up another ace-like performance, Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka were supposed to be above average, Jordan Montgomery was supposed to build on a solid 2017 with another decent season, and CC Sabathia was supposed to fill in some innings at an adequate level. The depth didn’t look great, with only Domingo German even approaching average. Two months into the season, this is the performance the team has received from its starters.
| Name | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 13 | 86.0 | 10.67 | 2.2 | 0.42 | 2.20 | 2.15 | 3.2 |
| CC Sabathia | 11 | 57.2 | 6.87 | 2.34 | 1.56 | 3.59 | 4.73 | 0.6 |
| Sonny Gray | 12 | 63.2 | 8.20 | 4.24 | 0.99 | 4.81 | 4.32 | 0.8 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 6 | 27.1 | 7.57 | 3.95 | 0.99 | 3.62 | 4.17 | 0.5 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 12 | 67.2 | 8.65 | 2.39 | 2 | 4.79 | 5.05 | 0.4 |
| Domingo German | 5 | 27.0 | 8.67 | 4.0 | 1.33 | 6.33 | 4.67 | 0.2 |
| Total | 58 | 329.1 | 8.69 | 2.95 | 1.2 | 3.94 | 3.99 | 5.6 |
So far so good, overall — thanks largely to Severino’s brilliance. Sabathia has pitched as expected, but after that, it doesn’t look pretty. Gray — even after last night’s encouraging start — and Tanaka have underperformed, German has already hit his projected number of innings, and Montgomery will miss the rest of the season due to Tommy John surgery. As for the rest of the season, even with improved projections for Severino and German, the loss of Montgomery and the decline in the rest of the rotation means the rest-of-season ERA and FIP are slightly worse than when the year started. If Gray and Tanaka don’t improve or one of them turns out to be injured, the Yankees are in position to lose whatever slim projected advantage they currently have over the Red Sox.
In addition to the currently hurt Cessa and the recently hurt Domingo Acevedo, the Yankees have no decent options should another rotation member get injured. Here are the projections for depth options mentioned in a YES Network piece.
| Name | Prospect Rank | Current Level | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justus Sheffield | 3 | Triple-A | 7.6 | 4.6 | 5.06 | 5.28 |
| Albert Abreu | 4 | High-A | 8.2 | 6.1 | 5.30 | 5.56 |
| Chance Adams | 8 | Triple-A | 8.3 | 4.4 | 5.05 | 5.22 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | 12 | Double-A | 7.6 | 2.6 | 4.52 | 4.53 |
| Trevor Stephan | 27 | Double-A | 7.9 | 3.2 | 4.91 | 4.95 |
| Josh Rogers | NR | Triple-A | 6.8 | 2.9 | 5.18 | 5.34 |
| Erik Swanson | NR | Triple-A | 7.4 | 3.2 | 5.00 | 5.16 |
This group is not without its upside. Sheffield and Abreu are decently ranked prospects, Adams had a good season in the minors last year, Swanson has merited Fringe Five status, and Stephan and Loaisiga have decent projections. However, Sheffield has walked 13% of batters faced this season, Abreu has been limited by an appendix injury and pitched poorly this year down in High-A, Adams’ Triple-A numbers aren’t very good, Loaisiga and Stephan hadn’t pitched above Low-A before the season started, and Swanson and Rogers can’t be expected to bring much to the table. If the Yankees lose another starter, their odds of winning the division, and consequently the World Series, will be diminished considerably.
It might be tempting to look at all the talent on the Yankees and think they can get by with a replacement-level fifth starter. They will probably make the playoffs if they make no moves, so it isn’t as if they have to do something to be competitive. If they want to considerably increase their odds of postseason success, however they will need to add someone — perhaps soon. If they are going to make a move now, they would need to target teams that are already out of the race.
There are always arms available, and surely some of the potential options would be a fit. Cole Hamels might be too expensive or cost more in prospects if the Yankees need Texas to pay most of the salary. Michael Fulmer might cost too much in talent. Chris Archer, J.A. Happ, and Marcus Stroman might not be available yet or at all. Perhaps Tyson Ross or Jordan Lyles of the Padres would make sense. Danny Duffy hasn’t pitched well this season. Madison Bumgarner, Jacob deGrom, and any Orioles pitcher seem far-fetched as a possibility. The trade picture is going to clear up quite a bit over the next couple months, and if the Yankees are going to win the division, they are probably going to need to make a trade for a starting pitcher.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
drury’s season so far is actually very encouraging.
the main thing is that he’s raised his bb% a large amount, both in limited ML time and in scranton.
his early season line is deflated by being extremely unlucky. he was hitting the ball hard consistently with an xwOBA around .400
i’d HODL with him and get that extra year of control.
Would you move Andujar and replace him with Drury to land a starter?
Would you move Didi and Andujar or Drury for a starter and sign Machado?
I think Drury has tremendous value, but he’s just blocked right now.
i mean, it’s a bit too early to decide on what to do with drury. he needs some sustained stretch of ML playing time to assess whether he’s actually improved. you are never getting fair value for him on the trade market without this discovery, and it makes other decisions like what to do with andujar less informed as well.
if they can trade other assets for pitching, they should do that. no real time pressure to take a premature decision/value loss on the 3b situation.
but seems like andujar is blocking drury at 3b in the short term, so they could get him some reps at 1b or in the outfield in order to get him more at bats.
the important thing with drury isn’t the decision but what information is behind that decision, and they can do more to add to that information this season.
it’s fine to play him at AAA full time right now for the sake of rehab/control time/discovery. they could call him up when an injury opens up an everyday spot, but that would be more likely to happen if he is getting some reps at positions other than 3b.
come back to fans -cp
tried to register again a bunch times they never approved me
Bumgarner to the Yankees would’ve been a really interesting proposition, since the Yankees barely even seem to have room on their AAA team for all their extra outfielders, and that’s a huge position of need for SF. Would’ve been really tempting to move on from a highly paid guy whose best days are more likely than not behind him.
But the general mediocrity of the NL West might keep this from happening.
Bumgarner is only 28 and makes about $12M.
And look at Felix Hernandez when he was only 28. Kershaw’s body started breaking down at about 29. At 28 people would have similarly laughed at the idea their best years were behind them. I would be interested in looking at the track record for guys who debut in their teens and throw 200+ innings for a decade – I’m skeptical that you can apply the same aging curve as someone like Kluber who’s 32 and thrown 900 fewer innings fewer than Kershaw, 400 fewer than Bumgarner, 1400 (!) fewer than Felix. We’re talking years of extra wear-and-tear, and that’s without the playoffs taken into account.
If I’m out of contention and I can get the vintage Bumgarner price for him, I can’t see how you wouldn’t do it. You’re right about his contract, I’d forgotten how team friendly it is, but it’s also only good through 2019.
Has anyone ever played with a pitcher aging curve model by innings instead of biological age? Could be informative.
Let’s not forget to include minors and college innings too. Kluber has thrown 800 less MLB innings than Kershaw, but it’s not like he didn’t throw a single inning in 2010.
If the Giants were to trade Bumgarner–which is highly unlikely, since they’re still in it–the return package starts with Andujar. Although he might be an outfielder as well. You’d have to imagine that with a year and a half of team control, the chance to land Bumgarner would lure the Cubs, Angels, Brewers, and perhaps Cardinals and Braves to offer some of their best prospects out there (I’d say the Mariners too, but they have nothing of value to offer, so it’s irrelevant). So there are a lot of reasons this is unlikely.
What if the Yankees offered Andujar, Frazier, and Sheffield?
It’s not insulting at least (not sure it’s a suggestion worthy of a downvote). If the Giants were out of it, I think they’d at least listen.
The key is that the Giants would have to be (1) out of it this year, (2) think they have little chance next year, and (3) also have no designs on resigning Bumgarner in order to trade him. I think (1) and (3) are probable, but probably not (2). In any case, the chances of all three of those things lining up are pretty poor.
In the event that all three of those things did line up, I would think that would be in the ballpark to start a conversation. What’s working to the Yankees’ advantage in that scenario is that there aren’t that many teams who desperately want a top-tier starting pitcher and would be willing to trade an FV60, an FV55, and an FV50. The Astros and Cleveland have FV60s but are already stacked in the rotation, Washington has largely declared Victor Robles off limits, and Alex Reyes is hurt so his stock might be down a little bit. Andujar is therefore a caliber of prospect that very few other teams could offer, and almost no contenders could offer him. Without Andujar on the table, they’d just be another team offering FV55s and FV50s. Maybe the Rockies would trade Brendan Rodgers, but they don’t have a crying need in the rotation and it’s a within-division trade.
I would think the biggest threat would be a team like Atlanta, who could offer some subset of FV55s (Pache, Gohara, Wright) andFV50s (Touissant, Fried, Anderson, Wentz). But in the event that Andujar isn’t on the table, other teams like the Brewers, Cards, Angels, or maybe even the Cubs would be in play.
Why would a team who is going to win their division trade one of the best playoff pitchers ever ?
( Yeah, that’s right … I said it )
Lighten up Francis, one of these posters may save your life someday.
Uncle Hulka ?
Even if Tanaka, German, and Gray round things out, German will almost definitely hit an innings limit, necessitating a call up or trade. Sheffield looks to be the best internal option, but Adams looks to be the pitcher they view as closest.
With regards to trade options, people need to remember the luxury tax and why deGrom and Bumgarner fit so much better than Hamels. The Giants seem unlikely to part with any lifers, though, and LAD’s struggles have made their division unexpectedly competitive. The Mets don’t want to trade with the Yankees, even though that probably makes the most sense (See “Duda.”). Unlike SF, the Nats, Phils, and Braves all look better than them and appear to be trending upward.
The 6th starter right now is Loasiga. His coach said they had lined him up for the recent doubleheader, but he turned out not to be needed since the game before was rained out.
I don’t know that some of those options are much better than replacement-level (or in this case, Erik Swanson-level). I guess you could trade for Jordan Lyles or Cole Hamels but why would you bother? I guess you think maybe you could fix Cole Hamels?
But I agree that there are options out there for teams looking for a short-term option. These include Tyson Ross, James Shields, JA Happ, Marco Estrada, Lance Lynn, Matt Harvey (to my and everyone else’s utter shock), and maybe Jaime Garcia.
Happ and Marco Estrada are probably off-limits because it would be within the division, I wouldn’t want to count on Harvey, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Preller charge a hard bargain on Ross…but I would think that the Yankees would be interested in Lynn or Shields.
Harvey’s not actually any good and it’s not going to happen, but him getting traded to the Yankees and having a positive impact in the postseason would be the most Mets thing ever.
Pretty much all of this.
“Harvey’s not actually any good and it’s not going to happen, but him getting traded to the Yankees and having a positive impact in the postseason would be the most Mets thing ever.”
Best LOLMets comment in a long time!
Yeah, the Yanks would only bring back Harvey if he costs nothing.
Too much of a risk he enjoys being back in the big city and falls back into his old habits.
Man, the annoying thing about Cole Hamels, is that some people just look at his shiny era, and assume he’s Good again
I agree with your thesis of needing pitching but it has to be a #2-3 rotation pitcher. Adding a 4-5th starter helps get to the playoffs (leapfrogging the play-in game), but once there the team is gonna send Sevy + CC + Gray + Tanaka. None of the latter 3 is particularly reliable.
The Yankees really need a stable #2-3 pitcher to not only help get the division, but also contribute during the playoffs. That’s exactly what Gray (or Cole) was supposed to be. Archer and Stroman are the right type of target (aka someone they could resign long term), but neither looks like their former selves.
Sometimes you just have to live or die with how you made your team. Regardless of how they are doing at the moment, CC, Gray, and Tanaka each have more upside than anything you’re likely to be able to pry from the trade market when so many teams are in the race for the postseason. Unless something happens to fall into place, the time to try to replace or complement them in such a way is in the offseason. But with Montgomery going down the Yankees are thin on major league starting depth. From the outside, it doesn’t look like they should feel comfortable after German at this moment. That’s a potential big problem waiting to happen if one of their starters gets injured. It could cost them the AL East title which would be a bigger blow to their World Series titles chances than (possibly) improving the worst of CC, Gray or, Tanaka with a middle-rotation guy. Easier/cheaper to fix and also more important. So, they shouldn’t miss the opportunity to get a reliable 5th starter because they are waiting around hoping to find a 2-3.
Exactly. The chances that someone who would even start for them in the postseason is going to be available seem slim. Hamels, maybe, but over who out of Tanaka/Gray/Sabathia?
They need a 5th starter for one reason and one reason only – to be worth a win or two more than German (or whoever gets hurt) and increase their chances of winning the division.
One thing that hasn’t been mentioned though – with their bullpen depth, I wonder that if confidence in German decreases or someone gets hurt, they’d have some bullpen games like the Rays & Dodgers have been doing.
I also wonder where AJ Cole would rank on that list of Yankee farmhands/mediocre trade targets. If not as a real starter, maybe as someone who could start and give you ~3-4 innings before turning it over to the pen.
As a Yankee fan I’m not interested in most of the pitchers mentioned at the end. If we get a starter it should be a front-end guy. We have the prospects to do it. Someone like Hamels, Fulmer or Stroman doesn’t present an obvious upgrade against our current top four.
I agree with your last sentence. But they are a significant upgrade over German, and that could mean winning the division vs. playing a crapshoot wild card game (as the author mentioned).
Also who do you think they could possibly get that is a “front-end” guy? It doesn’t matter if we have the prospects to do it if there’s not one available.
Happ would be a definite upgrade
Happ would be a definite upgrade over who in the top four?
I’ll take the other side. The Yanks can sit on their hands
This is viable: how soon we forget that Yanks were not supposed to be competitive until 2019…
I would offer the Nationals 2012 season (the year they shut down Strasburg in September) as a counterpoint to assuming that good things will last forever and refusing to take advantage of the current opportunity on those grounds. The Nationals have generally been very good since that season, but in 2 out of the next 3 years they missed the playoffs entirely. Something about the relative worth of a bird in hand or something.
I’m not dismissing this, but you don’t rebuild a team and then trade away the pieces that make the rebuild viable.
If the Yanks diminish the offense that is carrying them for a pitcher that can’t replace those wins, it wasn’t worth it, especially given the likely lost years of control.
JA Happ is the guy I want them to get
Yeah. We just have to hope and pray that the blue jays aren’t as petty as the orioles, and are willing to deal with us.
“Petty”? You’re generous. Stupid is a better word. But what do you expect from an organization that has three people trying to determine the direction of the team?
Who wants to quibble over my position-by-position assessment of Yanks vs. Sox? I’ve done my best to not be a homer:
Yanks vs. Sox – Rotation
Sevy = Sale
Tanaka = Porcello
CC/Gray Boston relievers
Yanks vs. Sox – Lineup
Sanchez > Whoever they trot out there these days
Andujar > Devers
Didi Pedroia’s wheelchair
Bird < Moreland
Gardy JBJ
Judge = Betts
Stanton < Martinez
I’ll bite.
Sale > Severino
Bogaerts > any NYY middle infielder
Nunez = best utility option on either team
How is sale better than Severino? The last two years Severino has thrown 279.1 IP, with a 163 ERA+. sale is at 295.1, 156. This year, Severino is at 86 IP, 197 ERA+, Sale is 81, 147.
You can say Sale is just as good, but no way to say he’s clearly better.
Sale is projected for a half win more WAR in 2018, I think that’s enough to say he’s better even if we’re not sure and it’s not a huge difference.
Who would say no to deGrom for Sheffield, Frazier, Abreu, and another minor leaguer of the Mets’ choosing except Florial?
I think both teams
Cashman would say yes in a fraction of a second. Sheffield and Abreu have dropped in stock considerably and Frazier’s good but clearly not needed.
How has Sheffields stock dropped? He has risen on every ranking since he joined the Yanks
The Mets, obviously. That’s a hilariously bad trade suggestion, especially with how poorly Sheffield and Abreu are doing. The Mets would potentially consider it if you add Andujar, but even that’s not a sure thing. Usually, the trade proposals on FG tend to be much better than that doozy.
It’s bizarre how little value people assign to a young, average or better 3rd baseman with 6 years of control
There’s a lot of optimism that he’s a 3rd baseman on these pages. I know that’s the position on the card, but he doesn’t seem like he’s capable of playing 3rd.
Q: How often do the Yankees and Mets trade significant players?
A: Not often. Not if they can help it.
What about converting Chad Green?
A potentially good option, but risky. If you send him to the minors to convert him you are losing a lot of value. If you convert him in the majors you are losing a lot of flexibility. Will he be effective enough as a starter to be worth it? Do you want to mess with the bullpen now considering he’s been so consistent for them, Kahnle is having problems, and Warren is just coming back from injury? What are the potential effects of his conversion on his usefulness in the postseason? Will you be able to move him back to the bullpen and expect the same performance there in the postseason as if you had not converted him?
Unless he develops another pitch or two, he’ll be exposed if he goes through the lineup more than once. Pass.
I don’t think it’s appropriate to throw him in the “failed starter” bin. I think he was put in the bullpen because of his proven value there and because of the combination of what the Yankees viewed as his potential upside/likelihood of succeeding as a starter. But that decision was made when Montgomery, Luis Cessa, and Justus Sheffield were healthy and Chance Adams was coming off a strong year. I’m sure with the situation as it is now if Green were stretched out he would be the no-brainer option for starter or starter insurance. If the season stopped now and there were another spring training you can bet they’d stretch Green out as a starter.
Chad green is one of the Best RPs inbadeball, because of one pitch. The fastball. That won’t translate as a starter. Not worth it imo. Adam warren is a more realistic option.
Where does Dillon Tate rank in this?
I doubt he’s considered major league ready at the moment. Plus he’s not going to pitch more than 120 innings this year, I’d imagine, and he’s already pitched 54.
I always actively root against both the Yankees and Red Sox mainly because their fans were often rude when I used to go to Orioles games in the late 90s and early 00’s. It’s unlikely, but I wish them both to miss the playoffs for as long as I live!
Free country. We can wish for whatever we want.
In my view, Domingo German has a lot of upside. His stuff can be absolutely overpowering. Mid 90’s fastball, good breaking ball, and a filthy changeup. It is his command that is killing him. He’s pitching behind in the count all the time right now, and you can’t survive at the major league level pitching behind in the count no matter how good your stuff is.
Adam Warren wasn’t really mentioned here, but he is probably considered starting depth by the organisation. He’s the reliever who is frequently allowed to see lineups more than once in an outing, and who pitches most like a starter.
I agree, I think German has upside, and he’s fine as a 5th starter. The problem is the pitching depth of the organization. Adam Warren would need to be stretched out to be starting depth. If a starter goes down with injury the Yankees would be giving up an awful lot while they stretch out Warren. It looks like they’ll be in a fight for the AL East and such a situation could lead to them losing out on the crown.
Yankees strike a deal with familiar partner Jeets, bring in Straily, Bour and Ziegler
What about Carson Smith? Last year he moved from the Yankees AAA affiliate to their AAAA affiliate and looks to have really figured things out.
I meant Caleb Smith.
He was traded to the Marlins for international $$ (earmarked for Ohtani).
Woosh.
2010s version of the Kansas City Athletics, he means.
Oh, I get it! I get jokes!
Hmm, sounds like the Yanks ought to give a looksee to that newfangled “opener” fad.
Seriously, though: not only would missing the top of the order be helpful but also, since the Yankees have a top rank offense, it increases the odds the back end starters get to pitch with a lead. For some pitchers it helps.
How about you do some goofy Rays stuff and start Green/Warren/and use German as a 2-3 inning arm and bridge the gap to Robertson/Betances/Chapman? I don’t like it personally, but it seems like a potentially better option than just pitching German every time through on his own.
For a team in the scrum for the lead, that’s awfully taxing on their bullpen. I know some guys can throw an inning or two in two or three consecutive games, but even with scheduled off days either the rest of the starting staff would have to go deeper or they’d have to expand their bullpen at the further expense of the bench.
For a team like the Rays, who aren’t in contention and are under money constraints, this makes sense. Not so much for a team with the playoffs as the goal.
That’s true. Maybe that COULD work for a playoff caliber team if you trust you have 3 or 4 solid 6+ inning arms you can count on instead of just 1.
There are two scenarios that come to mind (without thinking about it for more than a minute or so) where this could work, but they’re both in short bursts: 1) once the postseason starts (proven over the last few years), and 2) one of their guys hits the 10/15 day DL and they want to make do.
Craig is right, but there is a hurdle. The Yankees have turned into a more exciting and athletic club by trading for and developing young talent–and they have done that while driving down payroll below the CBT. They are likely to make the playoffs, and after that, it’s going to depend on their pitching–but maybe not their 4/5 starters. So, trading for a Hamels, and his contract, while giving away close to MLB talent seems to be a questionable strategy. They probably overpaid for Gray last year, but it was a defensible trade based on what his perceived value was (including control). That type of trade (with hopefully better results) maybe works, but other than that I don’t think it’s wise to overpay for old and expensive.
Kyle Gibson?
james shields has pitched surprisingly alright with a the mechanics of a new, lower arm slot worked out this year. he’s no doubt available, and the white sox would probably eat all or most of his expiring contract in return for a fringe prospect or two. he’s not what he was, nor will he be, but he’s probably good for 180-200 innings (total) of 4.00-4.50ish FIP.
Personally I wouldn’t trade good prospects for a front end. I might give up one for a back-end for depth, but the Yankees can throw money at depth this off-season. I don’t like churning too much out of the farm for minimal gains. The reason we have Torres is because the Cubs were hungry to get that final piece and quite honestly that piece was just not the difference in the postseason. Meanwhile Torres looks like he may be the best of the legion of shortstop prospects the Cubs had.
I also think that of all the performances between the two clubs with the best record in baseball, the Sox have the two most likely candidates for some regression, as Betts and Martinez have been *amazing*. I’m not saying they have to regress, just if someone’s season line is most likely to shed two or three hundred points of OPS, it’s those two.
True, but Bradley, Pedroia, Price, Pomeranz, Devers, and their catchers are likely to all get better and/or more healthy. I think in aggregate they’re doing about what they should – it’s just that up until this point, Betts and Martinez have been doing a disproportionate amount.
Well the Yanks have too many prospects to keep them all. Now that they have had so many trades and graduations, their farm is not what it was, but they still probably need to move some lower-value pieces for something- if they could make it work for starter depth that would be a good move.
Just to enter a dark horse name, if he continues pitching well, Nathan Eovaldi could be a name to look for a potential trade. He has previous work with Larry, been on the team before, and the fans always had a soft spot for him. When he was there, they viewed him highly and the braintrust behind the roster moves seems to think he has a massive amount of upside. Another potential dark horse could possibly be Shelby Miller.
Eovaldi might be a good fit, he won’t cost a ton in prospects, and unlike other division rivals Tampa won’t spit the bit at a making a deal with the Yanks.
Miller, on the other hand, is a very dark horse. Arizona would probably ask for something like Hicks + Torres + a minor-league pitcher to equal their perceived value on Miller.
Just neighing.
Happ for Frazier should be a no brainer for both sides. The Jays could even throw in someone like Grichuk as a bench bat for the Yanks, shedding salary and the Yankees could add a marginal prospect….but Frazier would be a great long-term addition to go with Hernandez.
The trade market took a lot of shape Friday early with Tanaka, Pomeranz and Ohtani injuries. It could be a sellers market early, but my guess is Angels, Red Sox and Angels look internally first.