The Year of the Billy Burns Ambush

Billy Burns was going to be one of those interesting test cases. His numbers in the minor leagues were strong — he drew walks about 12% of the time, and he infrequently struck out. He could motor, too, adding to his value both at the plate and in the middle of the outfield. Yet he had just two professional homers to his name, over 1,800 opportunities, and we’ve seen these failures before. So the question was, could Burns get pitchers out of the zone often enough to keep his OBP respectable, or would he wilt upon being challenged?

I don’t know what you expected from Burns, but I can tell you something I didn’t expect: here was this passive, speedy minor-league outfielder, and then as a rookie he posted baseball’s fifth-highest swing rate. For the sake of comparison, the name right ahead of him was Pablo Sandoval. And Burns wasn’t just aggressive in general — he wound up with baseball’s second-highest rate of swings at first pitches. Burns cast his history aside and turned himself into a swinger, and that’s not something that happens by accident. And no one, I don’t think, would have a problem with the results.

Depending on your defensive metric of choice, Burns was something like a 2- or 3-win center fielder, with a more or less average batting line. And it turns out the altered approach took shape late in 2014, when Burns worked on attacking more often. He took that with him into the major leagues, and he stuck with it all last year. Burns was aggressive much of the time, but the real payoff came early in counts.

One event that sticks out in my memory: toward the end of August, in Seattle, Burns faced Felix Hernandez and sent the first pitch of the game over the right-center wall.

It was a day game. It wasn’t the most impressive home run any of us have ever seen. But this was Burns, against Felix, and remember, Burns had two minor-league home runs. He wasn’t a player you expected to ever take a pitcher deep. That this happened at all is remarkable.

First pitches were where Burns did his damage. I mentioned earlier that he swung more than almost anyone else, and one of the results was that Burns collected 56 first-pitch hits, one behind the leader and a full 11 ahead of third place. That’s notable on its own, but there’s something more — Burns finished his year with 32 extra-base hits. That ranked him tied for 180th, around names like Nick Ahmed and DJ LeMahieu. This, we could’ve expected. Burns has never been powerful, and in fact last year among qualified hitters, he finished last by a mile in hard-hit rate.

Yet, Burns amassed 16 first-pitch extra-base hits. That ranked him tied for fourth, one behind Kris Bryant and one ahead of Anthony Rizzo. In other words, half of Burns’ extra-base hits came against the first pitch, which made him a very comfortable league leader.

Burns finished his year with five home runs, eclipsing his previous season-high of one. Four of those five home runs came against the first pitch. It suggests Burns was swinging a little harder when he had plenty of count to give, and there’s a little more supporting evidence, making use of Baseball Savant.

Compared to all other counts, Burns had a higher whiff rate against the first pitch. He also had a higher line-drive rate, and a lower ground-ball rate. But this is 2015, which means we have other numbers, and by batted-ball speed, Burns clocked in at 86.9mph against the first pitch. Against all other pitches, he finished with an average of 81.5mph.

That’s not super useful without context, though, so: against first pitches, Burns’ batted-ball speed ranked in the 21st percentile, 2.4mph below the league average. Against other pitches, Burns’ batted-ball speed ranked in the 0th percentile, 7.2mph below the league average. Against non-first pitches, Burns had the lowest average batted-ball speed in the sample numbering more than 300, and he had the lowest speed by more than a full tick.

So there’s truth in the old profile: Burns is not consistently strong, and his power upside is very much limited. Against anything but the first pitch, Burns hit the ball weaker than Ben Revere and Billy Hamilton. But Burns has enough in him to pick his moments, and against first pitches, he hit the ball as hard as Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier, and Matt Carpenter. In one year, he went from two to seven professional dingers, showing more pop than most would’ve projected. Burns was rewarded for his aggressiveness, and opponents most certainly took notice.

Now comes the fun part: everything else. Burns built a minor-league profile, and as he was on the verge of making the majors, he changed his approach rather substantially. He showed some power, if still very much limited power, and opponents might have to respect his bat more now than they did last season. In that event, pitchers might be a little less aggressive, which could allow Burns to relax some, tapping into that minor-league discipline that got him noticed in the first place. Following this course, Burns would go on to swing less, and his walks would rise. The increased swinging would accomplish the goal.

Alternatively, opponents might realize Burns still isn’t strong, and they might just try to mix things up a little more to start off at-bats. So much of Burns’ success as a rookie came out of what he did against the first pitch. Burns knows that’s true. Other teams know that’s true. As such, there’ll be some sort of response.

Which is the stuff that keeps the game beautiful. Much like a guy with two career minor-league homers drilling Felix Hernandez’s first pitch over a fence hundreds of feet away. Billy Burns spent his season ambushing opponents. You’d think he’s given away the element of surprise.