The ZiPS Breakouts in Saturday’s Futures Game

In my opinion, the least interesting part of All-Star Week is the All-Star Game itself. The Home Run Derby has surpassed it in terms of energy, and the Celebrity Softball Game, which mashes together celebrities and former big leaguers, has more enjoyable silliness. The Futures Game is the week’s most normal actual game of baseball, and even if its players are less accomplished than the ones in the Midsummer Classic, it’s fun to get a glimpse of the future. You should pay attention to everyone in the game (full scouting reports and tool grades for the entire roster can be found on The Board), but as the ZiPS guy, I wanted to highlight eight players who have had huge breakouts in terms of their projections. Three of the eight made this year’s preseason ZiPS Top 100; next year, all of them figure to rank in the top 50.

Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles

I’ve talked about Gunnar Henderson recently, but I’d be remiss if, in a piece talking about breakouts, I didn’t address the biggest one in ZiPS in 2022. Henderson fared quite well on the ZiPS Top 100 entering the season, but he’s gone on to absolutely terrorize the upper minors this season, propelling him higher in the rankings. Suppose I were to stuff Henderson’s projection into the preseason top 100. In that case, he’d now rank as the fourth-best prospect in baseball, with Bobby Witt Jr. just a hair ahead of him. Henderson’s improvements this year have been broad, from plate discipline to power, and at 21, he’s still on the young side for Double- and Triple-A. There’s still some uncertainty about his future home in the field, but the Orioles are wisely keeping their options over and aren’t pegging him or Jordan Westburg to definite positions yet.

Corbin Carroll, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll already ranked highly in ZiPS coming into the 2022 season, placing 22nd on the top 100, the second-best center field prospect in the projections. But the potential range of outcomes was absolutely massive because as terrific as his performance had been, there just wasn’t that much of it: Drafted in 2019, the lost COVID season in ’20 and a shoulder injury in ’21 meant that he only had played in 49 professional games. We finally got a healthy dose of Carroll this season, and he proceeded to torch the Double-A Texas League to a .313/.430/.643 line before a recent promotion to Triple-A Reno. The computer thinks he’d be a contributor right now, translating his 2022 into a .249/.338/.446 big league line. With increased certainty from more games, he’s basically already lapped the one center fielder who outranked him this winter, Andy Pages of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Carroll’s top ZiPS comps are now Adam Jones, Shane Mack, Ellis Burks, and Torii Hunter.

Eury Pérez, SP, Miami Marlins

ZiPS is naturally suspicious of pitchers in the low minors because no matter how good they are, the attrition rate is astronomically high. There’s a reason that Gary Huckabay of Baseball Prospectus coined the acronym TINSTAAPP (There is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect) a couple of decades (!) ago. While it shouldn’t be taken literally, it’s good to exercise a bit of caution when it comes to young pitchers, even the phenoms. Having said that, Eury Pérez appears to have already mastered Double-A ball despite being just 18 years old on Opening Day this year. Pérez is incredibly polished for a teenage flamethrower, and rarely walks batters. He’s even quite efficient for a young pitcher of this type; he’s already had a six-inning, 10-strikeout performance that only required 72 pitches. The Marlins eased him into the rotation at the start of the season, and since then, he has a 1.98 ERA and 69 strikeouts against nine walks in 50 innings. That his projections aren’t mind-blowing simply reflects the inherent risk of a teenage pitcher; his upside is unlimited.

Taj Bradley, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Taj Bradley only missed the ZiPS Top 100 because of the suspicious gaze the systems casts toward pitching prospects before they hit Double-A. While you should absolutely be aware of Eric Longenhagen’s warning that he needs to broaden his repertoire, Bradley has continued to dominate against a significantly better class of hitters than he faced last year. ZiPS does not think Bradley has the upside of Pérez, but getting Ben Sheets as your top statistical comp isn’t exactly a bad thing. With the Rays, Bradley is undoubtedly in a great organization to max out his chances of being a major league starter in the not-too-distant future.

Elly De La Cruz, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

Eric described Elly De La Cruz as a “prospect who could really bust or go supernova.” If 2022 is any indication, De La Cruz may have enough mass to be well over the Chandrasekhar limit. Coming into the season, ZiPS was on the bust side of the argument, projecting him to max out at less than 1 WAR, though with some use given his positional flexibility and 20-home run power. ZiPS now sees him peaking in the 35-homer range in Cincinnati, a well-configured home park for his skill set. He’s not going to be a particularly scientific hitter, but he’s just good enough at third base to minimize the damage of some unappealing on-base numbers. As you might guess, his comp list is a varied crew, with Edwin Encarnación and Jose Valentin on the good side and a bunch of guys you probably haven’t heard of on the negative.

Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, Boston Red Sox

Jackie Bradley Jr.’s return to Beantown hasn’t exactly been a roaring success. While he’s providing more offense for the Red Sox than he did with the Brewers, that’s as vicious an example of damning with faint praise as you’re likely to find. If Boston can’t get the old JBJ back, well, it’s time to look for a new one. Thanks to a heckuva breakout with the bat across two levels this year, Ceddanne Rafaela hits all the JBJ highlights: top-notch glove in center, surprising power, and good, though not exceptional, speed. ZiPS isn’t a fan of Rafaela’s defense in the infield, seeing it more as a flexibility cherry on top of the profile rather than a viable set of alternative positions, but it ranks him as the best defensive center fielder in the minors in 2022.

Hunter Brown, SP, Houston Astros

ZiPS would have liked it if Hunter Brown had shed another walk or so from his rate per nine innings, an issue that chased him even through college. But even if he’s still walking a few more batters than is ideal, it’s hard to argue with his results in an incredibly difficult environment for a pitcher. The Pacific Coast League has long had a reputation as one of the most brutal places for hurlers to ply their trade, especially before half of the lower-scoring American Association was realigned into the PCL after the 1997 season. This year, the league average ERA in the PCL is a spicy 5.52 ERA and among starters with 30 innings, only Ryan Pepiot has a lower ERA than Brown. The walks may not have disappeared, but neither have the strikeouts, and Brown’s arguably already facing conditions as rough as the majors. He isn’t young (he’ll turn 24 next month), but Brown is one of the safest bets among Futures Game pitchers and has a relatively complete repertoire of pitches.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs

If Pete Crow-Armstrong hits it big, I hope the It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia gang lets him appropriate the Fight Milk logo. A former Mets first-round pick who was regarded highly enough to fetch Javier Báez and a Trevor Williams throw-in on his own, ZiPS had little to say about him earlier this year given PCA’s brief professional history. After hitting .321/.389/.546 at two levels to go along with 19 stolen bases and credible defense in center field, ZiPS has a lot more to talk about now. There’s still a ways to go until he’s in the majors, but his top comp list has all sorts of fun names, including Carlos Gómez, Ray Lankford, Rondell White, and Marquis Grissom, among others. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline has suffered a bit since being promoted, but I wouldn’t worry too much about it, considering that he’s still slugging above .500; players hitting well are incentivized to be aggressive.