This Is the Post About the All-Star Rosters
We are very nearly ready for this season’s All-Star Game. Now that the rosters have been announced, it’s mostly academic. We’ll have the annual injury replacements and then the pitcher replacements and, of course, the Final Vote. By the time they line up along the bases for intros next Tuesday, many of the players who were originally denied a roster spot will have found a place by other means. That’s the nature of this process. Let’s take a look at what this year’s game is likely to offer.
It strikes me this year, as I scroll through the leaderboards, how few deserving players have been omitted from the initial rosters. In the National League, there are a couple of big snubs in Justin Turner, Anthony Rendon and Alex Wood, but Turner and Rendon are candidates for the Final Vote, and Wood is a good bet to make the roster, especially if Clayton Kershaw starts on Sunday and thus becomes ineligible to pitch in the ASG.
In the American League, two of the players at the top of the leaderboards are also on the Final Vote list in Logan Morrison (ninth in WAR as of Sunday) and Xander Bogaerts (11th). In between them at 10th is Aaron Hicks, who wasn’t selected either for the roster or the Final Vote. Ditto for Lorenzo Cain, who was behind Bogaerts in 12th place as of Sunday. On the NL position-players list, between Rendon (fourth in WAR as of Sunday) and Adam Duvall (19th), the only player not included on the roster is Freddie Freeman, who is excellent but has played in just 37 games this season. Hard to get worked up about that.
(Photo: Keith Allison)
Among AL pitchers, Chris Archer stands out as a snub, but he’s not really a snub by traditional metrics. His 3.07 FIP is marvelous; his 3.92 ERA, less so. But he also has 131 strikeouts, which is the second most in the AL, and fourth best in baseball behind only Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Kershaw. One would think, in the age of the strikeout, that this would be enough to get him on the roster. It still may, though, so before I get too worked up, let’s see what thing week brings.
Of course, there are other ways to look at things. Just because most of the players at the top of the leaderboards are represented on the team doesn’t mean the process was perfect. I’m not sure what Michael Brantley has done to deserve a place on this team other than being on the field for the majority of the season. He’s sort of a feel-good selection in the sense that, prior to this season, it was natural to wonder if he’d ever play at an average rate again, and I’m thrilled that he is. But he’s playing at roughly an average level, and his spot would have been better utilized to select Cain, Hicks, or a half-dozen other players. Brantley ranks 19th in WAR among AL outfielders, and 13th in wRC+. He’s hit five home runs. It’s not like he’s setting the world on fire. If you want to limit it to just left fielders, you might consider Brett Gardner, who has more than double Brantley’s WAR and three times as many home runs. Nelson Cruz also sticks out as an unworthy choice overall, though he’s been one of the better DHs, so he fits positionally.
One of the quirks of the process is those position limits. It’s understandable that there should be a certain number of players per position, but in years when one position is really strong and another isn’t, you end up with some head-scratching results. Such was the case in the NL this season: third base is incredibly deep and second base just isn’t. The imbalance between the two positions is probably best illustrated by the appearance of DJ LeMahieu on a roster that excludes Kris Bryant. At the risk of boring you into sleep, this is where I note that the way the roster selection works is that, if the players and the fans vote for the same player to start at his position, the backup at that position is automatically awarded to the person the players vote into second place. In this case, that was LeMahieu.
LeMahieu has developed a great reputation since he started hitting .300. He hit .311 in the first half of 2015 and, as a result of that, was named to his first All-Star team. Then he went out and hit for the highest batting average in baseball last season, as his .348 AVG just edged out Daniel Murphy at .347. LeMahieu was legitimately good last season overall, as his 4.2 WAR shows. But in 2015, and this season, he hasn’t really been all that great. His 0.7 WAR ranked 16th among NL second basemen as of Sunday. His 82 wRC+ ranked 23rd. By total offensive runs (Off), he ranks 42nd out of 45 NL second basemen. Yes, he’s hitting .303, but it’s a pretty damn empty .303.
Meanwhile, Kris Bryant is dependent on the Final Vote, which features several deserving candidates. Based solely on 2017 WAR, Bryant is the third-most deserving. But when you take a wider view, it’s clear that Bryant should be there. From the start of the 2015 season to now, Bryant and Kershaw stand at the top of the heap as the Senior Circuit’s best players:
| Player | WAR |
|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 18.0 |
| Kris Bryant | 17.7 |
| Bryce Harper | 16.2 |
| Joey Votto | 16.1 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 16.0 |
| Max Scherzer | 15.8 |
| Justin Turner | 13.3 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 12.8 |
| Buster Posey | 12.6 |
| Jake Arrieta | 12.3 |
| Nolan Arenado | 12.3 |
| Corey Seager | 12.3 |
Now, because of somewhat arcane rules, one of baseball’s best players is left on the outside looking in because (a) he didn’t win the fan vote and (b) third base in the NL is so ridiculously deep this season. (To the latter point: nine NL third baseman have 2+ WAR this season, which is easily the most for any fielding position in either league.)
Bryant’s omission highlights the problems that can occur with the roster-construction process. Fan voting to decide the game’s starters is a good foundation off of which to build — as is the one-player-per-team rule. I’d submit, however, that the process should have few other constraints beyond that, especially when it comes to the player vote. MLB should have the wiggle room to step in and say, “Hey, you know that awesome, handsome player who was featured in one of our best recent ad campaigns, hit third for the NL All-Stars in last year’s game, won the MVP award, and made the final out to help deliver his team its first World Series championship in more than 100 years? Yeah, that guy needs to be in the All-Star Game.” In other words: while it’s important to give interested parties a vote, it’s also important for Major League Baseball to have some freedom to create the most compelling game possible.
One last point that probably requires some attention is the loophole that allows pitchers to duck out of the game. At a certain point, MLB needs to start fining or punishing teams who let their All-Star starting pitchers become ineligible by pitching the Sunday before the game, or simply get rid of that rule altogether. MLB already has enough trouble marketing its stars; Kershaw’s absence from the game only makes that harder. I’m fairly certain one of the Dodgers’ other 15 starting pitchers can handle Sunday’s game. (Finally, now that we’re voting only online, I still think fans should be able to vote for the starting pitcher, but with nearly all of the best pitchers were selected for the team, this is a minor quibble.)
Despite all the roster debate and Bryant’s omission, MLB’s jewel event of the regular season is going to be a good show, at least at the start. Jose Altuve will likely lead off the game against Max Scherzer, and in the bottom of the first, we’ll likely see Chris Sale face Bryce Harper for just the third time ever. (Their only other encounters also came in the All-Star Game. In 2013, Harper lined out to third, and last season, Harper grounded out to second). The process isn’t perfect, and the game itself is unlikely to be perfect, but there is a lot to love here. I’m excited to see Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger under the bright lights for the first time, I’m excited that overqualified reserve players like Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Paul Goldschmidt and Corey Seager will make for a more exciting middle of the game than we’re accustomed to, and I’m excited to see if the game comes down to Kenley Jansen versus Craig Kimbrel.
Also, just for your viewing and commenting pleasure, I’ve constructed several custom leaderboards for the game. Enjoy!
Custom Leaderboards
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
I can’t really see why the Dodgers should have to give up c. 0.15 of a win just because Kershaw is so awesome.
Agreed, it’s an exhibition game. There’s no reason a team should have to adjust pitcher usage on games that count for this.
I was thinking the same. But if they move the ASG to Wed, this problem goes away. You can pitch Sunday and still throw an inning or so on Wed
One thing I have never been clear on regarding the ASG is what time frame is supposed to be used for evaluation? Is it the first ‘half’ of 2017, or does it (should it?) include the 2nd half of 2016? Or is it something else entirely? It’s hard to debate who does/does not deserve to get in unless the evaluation period is clear (maybe it is and I am just unaware of it). Thanks.
I think officially it is supposed to be the first half of 2017. Of course for the fan voting, career accomplishments always play a role.
I’ve always thought it should include the previous 2nd half. Otherwise, the bizarre result is that 2nd halves simply don’t exist for All-Star Game consideration, which is, amongst other things, used to measure a player’s HoF candidacy.
Paul are you seriously arguing that Bryant should be on the roster because of what he did in 2015 and 2016, and because he’s “handsome”?
He hasn’t earned it this year. That’s ok, just because he’s great doesn’t mean he gets an automatic bid every year.
But he has earned it this year — if your definition of year is something closer to an actual year and not just the first three months of this season. According to Fangraphs’ past calendar year split, he’s the fourth most valuable position player in the NL — ahead of Goldschmidt, ahead of Arenado, ahead of Murphy and Harper and LeMahieu.
I guess but the expectation is that it’s for the first half of the year, nonsensical as that is. And for that reason, I think if we’re going to be up in arms about someone being left out it should be Turner.
I don’t think that is the expectation. It’s one perspective, but IMO if the ASG wants to eke out some basic relevance, it should put the biggest star names in there. It is, after all, for the casual fan, who more likely knows of Kris Bryant than many of these other players.
No, that is by far the most common expectation. It’s certainly not the only one, but the large majority of fans and players pick the All-Stars first and foremost by their first half performances.
Besides, the MLB ASG is already by far the most relevant ASG among North American team sports. It doesn’t need any extra help in that regard.
No he hasn’t,all star games are by position and he is 4th by war. He might be better than the best dh but that is not all star nomination works.
Agreed – like Dave has said in his articles, the vote should focus primarily on this season’s performance, and according to that Kris hasn’t earned it.
Kris Bryant’s WAR ranks 12th among position players in NL this year.
(Effectively tied with Arenado and if you regress Arenado’s defense stats, considering its volatility, one could very convincingly argue that Bryant deserves it as much as, if not more than, Arenado).
Considering there are 20 position players in an all star roster,
Being the 11th best among healthy position players out of 20 spots
means he certainly has earned it even allowing for 1 player per team rule.
Are you seriously arguing that Lamb is a better choice than Bryant?
Well do you want to play the asg with 6 3b and 5 SS?
LOL at “earned” it. The ASG is an exhibition game and the roster rules are arbitrary and entertainment-oriented. If you want it to be a reward for players that have “earned it” Then:
1) Get rid of fan voting. This is about earning it, not a popularity contest
2) Get rid of player voting. This is about earning it, not a popularity contest
2) Get rid of the rules requiring one player from every team. This is about earning it, not making sure every fan sees at least one jersey from his team
The game itself is managed as an entertainment (take out the starter in the 3rd! Substitute everybody!) Which is fine; ultimately that’s what baseball is, and this is an exhibition (even if Selig wanted it to “mean something.”) And sure, some players’ contracts award them bonus for ASG appearances so it does have some real meaning for some of them. And I’m sure many of them consider it an honor, even if they’d rather just have three or four days off. But let’s not pretend that this isn’t a game played with rosters constructed in an arbitrary way with an eye to pleasing as many fans as possible. It’s a reward for popularity, which is correlated with but not entirely driven by performance. The ASG roster for each league is 34 players (34!) and yet every one contains players who haven’t “earned it” relative to somebody who didn’t get picked. If MLB got to add its own “Mr Popularity” as the 35th man, how would that be a travesty?
They need to be able to overrule to some extent, like when all the Royals recieved starting spots. With that said, I have always felt it’s a 1st half of the season award with considerations. Yonder Alonso got in because of having to have one player per team, and his 1st half, not 2016.
DJ LeMahieu was the name that totally blew my mind. Makes me think the player vote isn’t all that informed.
Of course it’s not. Players get paid to play, not to evaluate other players and it shows every time they vote on something like this.
The league absolutely should NOT meddle with teams’ starting pitching rotations to force Kershaw or anyone else to pitch in the game. The All Star game started losing relevancy 35-40 years ago when free agency started to really take hold and completely stopped meaning anything when interleague play started 20+ years ago. This has only become moreso with the proliferation of additional TV and online means to watch games over the last 10 years or so.
Before free agency, there was very little TV and the only way to see Willie Mays if you lived in, say Detroit, was the All Star Game. That was it (well, either that or the unlikely chance that both the Tigers and Giants made the World Series). But in the 80’s, guys started to move a lot more freely between leagues and you did see guys face other top players a lot more often. Nolan Ryan pitched for a lot of years in both leagues and faced almost every top hitter from the mid-70’s to mid-80’s for example.
You note Harper and Archer. Harper has actually already faced 5 of the pitchers on the AL squad – Keuchel, Santana, Fulmer, Kimbrel, Miller – with a series still left against the Angels. Goldschmidt has already faced 8 – Keuchel, Santana, Vargas, Darvish, Kluber, Mccullers, Kimbrel, Betances – with additional series left this year against Houston, Minnesota and KC
Then there is the matter of online availability. You can buy a season long package that lets you watch any game for $113. Since we are now deep into the season, the cost is down to a ridiculous $20.17.
If you aren’t seeing top players perform, you just aren’t trying.
To me, the All Star game has become MUCH, MUCH, MUCH more about giving players a mid-season break than it is about the game. Sure there’s the honor part of it for the players (especially since there are no year-end “All MLB” awards like the NBA and NFL have) and I’m sure they appreciate that. But it has little to do with the actual game any more.
Bizarre seeing an article on Fangraphs arguing that allowing teams to set their rotations is a “loophole” that “requires some attention”. To seriously argue that the league should be able to force changes in rotations to compel pitchers to appear in an exhibition game.. does not compute.
It’s a terrible opinion regardless, but if you take a second to think about it, having a rule like this could be really bad for a team that doesn’t have excess starting pitchers, i.e. almost all of them. 24 of the 30 teams play everyday from Wednesday to Sunday. You can’t ask a team to shuffle its starters in a situation like that. They would either have to call someone up, throw someone on short rest, or have a reliever start the game, all things that would drastically change the odds of winning a game when compared to having a pitcher who has earned a spot on the All Star Team.
Harper hasn’t played the Astros yet this season, by the way.
Unless you’re including ST. They do play, though.
I was looking at career stats, not just this season. Harper faced Keuchel in 2012 which obviously isn’t the same as them facing off now since that was before either was the player they are now, but the point is that any 2 great players are going to square off at some point in their careers whether it’s interleague or the high likelihood that one or the other will change leagues at some point.
BTW, I had missed that the Nats play the Astros later this season so yes, odds are pretty good that they will square off this year again.
It’s not about just seeing the top players play. It’s about seeing all the top players play against each other in one single game with league bragging rights on the line. That’s why it’s still worth watching, especially over those ridiculous half-hearted snore-fests in the NFL and NBA.
A couple of the player votes are weird (DJ, Molina, Brantley), but overall this is the least anyone has had to complain about in a long time with these rosters. And if the fans get to vote in the starters, I’m good with the players saying, ‘you know what? We want Michael Brantley in this game because we respect the hell out of him. And Molina’s numbers may make him seem like a middle of the pack catcher in the NL, but we think he’s better than that for reasons that can’t be captured in number.’
Frankly, I think just pulling up fWAR, picking the guys at the top of each position and calling it a day is the ‘fairest.’ But short of that, I think the system is working well, and this year’s rosters are proof.
Funny, my first reaction to the roster announcements was “this looks amazingly like a WAR leaderboard.”
Maybe fan evaluation + player evaluation = sabernerd ranking. 😉
Molina was a perfectly reasonable pick. With his still excellent (if no longer Gold Glove caliber) defense and decent offensive numbers this year, he’s right up there with a few others in the argument for the NL’s second best catcher in a year when only Posey stands out from the crowd.
There are eight catchers. who have produced more fWAR than Molina. In the National League. Heck, there are two on one team (the Dodgers). Judging on numbers, he’s anything BUT reasonable.
Clearly, he made it by reputation among his peers. Which I think is fine; obviously the league sees something the numbers don’t, and I think there’s plenty of room in the All Star game for a player or three like that. But he’s nowhere near the top when it comes to any statistical measure.
WAR is not a good method for judging catcher’s defense. Molina’s defense overall (framing, throwing, and blocking) is still right up there with any of the others.
As for his offense, he’s fifth in the league in WRC+ (among 6 qualifiers, but then again the others haven’t played enough to deserve to be an All-Star) but only 22 points behind second place when you exclude Posey. Take away Realmuto, whose defense isn’t in the same tier as the others, and consider that Molina probably has the defensive edge over the others, and that leaves Molina, Grandal, and Contreras as very close contenders for the NL’s second best catcher this year.
Since Grandal and Flowers are the two best framers in major league baseball, Grandal and Contreras have better defensive numbers, since all three of them plus Manny Pina, Tucker Barnhart, and JT Realmuto are having better offensive seasons than Molina, and Buster Posey still exists as Buster Posey I’d say no, it’s not a reasonable pick. In fact, it could be the least reasonable pick on the entire roster given the alternatives.
But hey, it could be worse. They could have picked Matt Wieters.
Flowers, Pina, and Barnhart haven’t played enough; Realmuto’s offensive advantage is more than negated by his defensive disadvantage; Molina’s as least as good of a defender as Grandal or Contreras (despite what the untrustworthy metrics say), while his offensive numbers are very close to both of theirs, so you can’t go wrong with picking any of the three after Posey.
If you’re trying to argue that Molina is an equally deserving candidate as Flowers and Grandal, despite being waaaay behind on fWAR and behind on framing, then you’ve clearly stopped trying to analyze the situation and are just wanting your home-team guy to get in. Realistically he’s even got a worse case than Pina (who despite playing less, has put up more fWAR…and Pina’s even framing about the same level as Molina this year). He’s more deserving than Barnhart, though, since they have similar fWAR and Barnhart is a lousy framer.
I blame 5×5 roto for egregious voting errors.
I’m no fan of asterisks, but I feel like LeMaheu should have one next to his “batting title” for sitting out the last week of the season. As if playing all of your home games at Coors Field wasn’t enough, you had to sit out the last few games to edge out Murphy?
Murphy was so butthurt about that he also sat out the last week due to a strained glute.
I’m really surprised that Felipe Rivero didn’t make the NL team, but I guess he was a victim of (a) other NL teams needing at least one rep and (b) Josh Harrison deservedly making the team. Still, Rivero should be there, by all accounts.
He has truly had a remarkable season. Maybe not enough guys have faced him yet this year, because I feel like everyone who has should have voted for him, based on what he did to them.
Interesting to note that, as things stand right now, there’s only one traditional closer on the AL roster.
How do pitcher’s approach this knowing they will pitch 2 innings at the most? Just pretend it’s a bullpen session and try not to mess up their pitching schedule? And, do teams try to setup the throwing days to align with the All-star game?
Is it really a good idea for a league to put just a single player at a weak position on its roster, though (except perhaps for AL DH)? What if Daniel Murphy gets injured during the game or the Nats don’t want him to play all 9+ innings of an exhibition game?
They do have a backup, Josh Harrison.
Ah, ok, so Harrison was a third second baseman added by the Commissioner’s Office, but the point still stands. You need at least two players who can normally play each position on the roster, even if the position is so shallow that only one of them actually deserves to be an All-Star.
Although if you have someone like Harrison who could’ve been picked instead of LeMahieu, then should we just get rid of the player’s vote entirely now that we have the Commissioner’s Office rather than biased managers making the remaining picks?
“while it’s important to give interested parties a vote, it’s also important for Major League Baseball to have some freedom to create the most compelling game possible.”
Ok, did you say the same thing last year for the NL when it was all Cubs? or the year before in the AL when it was all Royals?
Common sense, right?
Setting last year aside, there was DEFINITELY uproar about the year before with the Royals.
OK, So can you explain WHY you are setting last year aside?
Because the year before alone is enough to highlight the fallacy in your comment?
And because last year’s Cubs had better players so there’s less to complain about?
I don’t believe you should be mentioning past year stats the seventh this year’s All-Star selection
Can someone please explain to me how more people don’t realize that marwin gonzalez is INCREDIBLY deserving of an all star bid?
Amazing that Jimmy Nelson isn’t discussed as a snub. His numbers are identical to Grienke’s and superior to Ray and Martinez, yet no one even brings him up as a deserving All-Star?
The Bryant issue doesn’t really come down to “deserving” based on play on the field to me.
The one area baseball fails miserably where the other leagues are amazing is promotion of their stars. The other leagues are amazing at picking out the players that can sell the league and put them in the spotlight as often as they possibly can.
With baseball constantly complaining about stagnant popularity, and the other leagues over the last few decades gaining popularity, they should be following suit and trying everything in their power to promote the stars they can to get them front and center every chance they get. If they are identifying a player that they can promote the league around, they need to be in the ASG, even if less deserving. This isn’t a deserving thing, it is a marketing thing.
The optics on having the players they have identified as their promotable players not making the ASG is terrible. It gives the appearance of the league not being able to identify their best players, and if they are promoting people who are not the best in the league, then why promote them.
Quite simply, the ASG should be about fun and promotion of the league by getting all the stars of the game there if healthy. Packaging them up in events for the fans to watch, and putting the camera on them constantly, and having them interview non-stop.
There is no reason Trout, Kershaw, Bryant, and Harper should not be at every ASG being shoved in front of anyone with a pulse to talk, in addition to playing, even in a bench last man off the bench role. I would also be working on identifying guys like Betts, Judge, Altuve,and Darvish type players who could be used in advertising campaigns nationally, and don’t fit the “baseball is so white” stereotype that it has.