This Offseason’s Best Non-Tender Pickups

Last year was the worst year for shopping in the non-tender market since 2007. No player that was non-tendered after the 2014 season was worth even a win in 2015, which hasn’t happened since MLBTradeRumors started tracking non-tenders with their handy tool.

Before we consider it a trend, remember that the year before was the best year for non-tender shopping over the same time frame. Infielder Justin Turner netted the Dodgers three wins, oufielder Sam Fuld nearly did the same for the Rays, now-Cub Chris Coghlan was worth two wins, and catcher Michael McKenry was also nearly average.

In any case, looking over the past non-tender values, a few truths emerge. The best non-tender pickups were above replacement level the year before, for one. And, like Kelly Johnson, Willie Harris, Aaron Miles, and Jeff Keppinger before, they usually had some positional flexibility. Or at least positional value, in the case of the center fielders and catchers.

In that way, maybe last year did buck the trend to some extent. Kyle Blanks (0.8 WAR) and Justin Smoak (0.6 WAR) led the way, and they don’t offer much in positional flexibility or value. Still, last year’s above-replacement non-tenders also included Slade Heathcott (0.5) and Gordon Beckham (0.3).

So who will lead this year’s non-tender market?

By 2015 Value

None of the current non-tenders produced as many wins in 2015 as Juan Nicasio (0.9 WAR), and he’s not currently hurt like second-place Greg Holland or fourth-place Henderson Alvarez. The Dodger averaged 95 out of the pen, struck out a quarter of the batters he saw, and had a tidy 11% swinging strike rate.

That all sounds impressive enough to get him a job, but there is a way to explain the Dodgers side of this. That swinging strike rate was only good for 73rd best among relievers, and his walk rate was third-worst among relievers with 50 innings last year. He was due over three million bucks, and he was probably due regression in the home run category, since he only gave up one all year.

Still, he has gas and can get the whiff. He’ll get picked up, and he might not even have to settle for much less than three million.

And by last year’s value, actually, the list is dominated by relievers. The most velocity of the above-replacement relievers belongs to Nicasio, and then Neftali Feliz and Al Alburquerque. If they don’t get major league deals, they’ll get invites.

Positional Flexibility

The Keppinger/Turner/Miles player in this year’s crop is not obvious at first. The names Elian Herrera and Pedro Ciriaco do not set general managers’ hearts aflutter.

But neither did Justin Turner’s name, back in the day. But there’s some evidence that Herrera is in the midst of becoming a (lite?) version Turner. In the second half last year, Herrera pulled the ball more and hit the ball harder than he ever had before. That set of conditions is how Turner explained his own mid-career renaissance.

Yes, Herrera strikes out too much and doesn’t walk a lot, but none of these guys is going to come without a wart. In the last two years, Herrera has played six positions to varying degrees of success, and he hits from both sides of the plate. He’s 30, but his floor is usable, and the batted ball mix changes provide some hope for the future.

Role Playing

Maybe Tyler Flowers should just go back to gripping it and ripping it. A four-year low in reach rate may have helped him to a career-best strikeout rate, but it also had something to do with a career-worst isolated slugging rate. He’s turning 30 next year, but he was sixth in Baseball Prospectus’ framing runs last year, and there’s still potential for a win in that bat. There’s a decent catcher pickup on the non-tender market about every other year, and Flowers looks the part.

And, oh yeah, are there two power hitters who could help teams in the Blanks and Smoak mold next year? It’s certainly possible that Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter lead next year’s non-tenders looking back, but given their defensive value, it may not be likely. Edwin Encarnacion (in 2011), Jack Cust (2010) and Jonny Gomes (2009) are the only sluggers who have been non-tendered and were worth more than a win in the subsequent year. They averaged 1.4 wins and none of the bunch led their year in value.

Someone may find themselves a platoon designated hitter, or if they are lucky or their team is bad, a first baseman, but the past non-tender market says that the less sexy names are going to be the best pickups. Elian Herrera, we welcome your three-win season in 2016.