2016 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta.

Batters
If the depth chart below seems to depict a more dismal situation than one might expect from a club that’s appeared in each of the last two World Series, note that it excludes at least one player (Alex Gordon) who’s been instrumental to the team’s recent success and another (Ben Zobrist) who benefited the 2015 edition of the club after arriving at the July trade deadline.

It’s not surprising, in light of Gordon and Zobrist’s respective departures, that corner outfield and second base are the team’s two weakest positions according to ZiPS. One assumes that the front office regards these as priorities for the offseason.

Pitchers
It’s not typical for a player to receive a projected WAR that would also represent his career-high mark by that measure. That’s the case here, though, for right-hander Yordano Ventura, whose 2.7-win mark in 2015 represented not only his personal best but also the best figure among all Royals pitchers. The 2.8 WAR projected for him in 2016 is also the highest among Kansas City pitchers.

With regard to the bullpen, most of 2015’s principals return. Wade Davis occupies a place among Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, and maybe a few others, as one of the league’s obviously elite relievers. Right-hander Kelvin Herrera is also markedly above average, although the loss of Greg Holland to injury — plus the departure of Ryan Madson — might create more difficulties here than those which recent iterations of the club have been forced to contend.

Bench/Prospects
If some combination of Jarrod Dyson, Jose Martinez, or Paulo Orlando fails — or if they all fail simultaneously — outfielder Reymond Fuentes would appear to be a possible candidate to provide value in the outfield. While he doesn’t possess the sort of power typically associated with a corner-outfield spot, he’s exhibited the precise combination of speed and defense that’s defined the Royals in recent years.

Among Kansas City’s rookie-eligible pitchers, left-hander Alec Mills receives the top WAR projection from ZiPS. Mills recorded strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 3.0% this year over 21 starts and 113.1 innings at High-A Wilmington.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Royals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.95 ERA and the NL having a 3.79 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.