Three At-Bats with Brandon Moss

In a slump, the mental and physical combine to confuse, and the player ends up in a spiral. “You go up to the plate and you think about your weaknesses, and you start focusing on them, and you start chasing,” Brandon Moss said before a game against the Giants, adding “it all starts to spin around.” Since having offseason hip surgery, the Cardinals’ slugger has been spinning in both facets of the game.

A recent tear might be the result of getting right, though. An adjustment to his mechanics, a milestone in his workouts, and a slight tweak to his approach all recently came together. The result looks more like the Moss that averaged 33 home runs for every 600 plate appearances coming into this season.

To illustrate how he’s gotten his game back together, there might not be a better way than to have Moss take us through three plate appearances against Rubby de la Rosa last week. The pitcher got the better of him once, but when the batter did his damage, it was the result of a convergence of factors.

Before he even stepped to the plate for the first time against de la Rosa, Moss had two physical changes that were starting to favor him.

For one, he was nearing his old playing weight after offseason surgery on his hip. “I was 215 [pounds] last year. Had the surgery in October, didn’t start rehabbing until late November. When I got traded, I just started squats the week before. I was down to 193,” said Moss, shaking his head at the thought. “I’ve hit a lot of balls this year that get to the track or the wall, where usually they’re quite a bit further.”

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Brandon Moss’ Average Fly Ball and Home Run Distance
Year Feet
2012 294.1
2013 295.7
2014 281.4
2015 286.5
SOURCE: www.baseballheatmaps.com

But Moss is finally working out again, and that’s important to him, even if he originally hurt himself doing those same squats. “I’m 205 now,” he said of his weight. “I feel good because I’m lifting again. I’m getting closer. And that’s where I drive the ball from, the strength in my legs.” Maybe that return to the weights inspired his teammates to make bench-lifting motions after his double Tuesday night. If they were telling him to lift more to get that extra three feet of distance, he responded well, hitting a walk-off home run later that game to dead center.

That offseason surgery on a torn hip labrum put a crimp in Moss’ style, but getting back to full strength is harder than just getting physically healthy again. Bad health begets bad mechanics, and after you fix the broken thing, you have to re-find your mechanics.

“This year, pretty much this whole year, I just didn’t feel comfortable being as open as I used to be,” Moss said of his stance, which was once famously opened for great results. Without the strength in his legs, opening up just led to the player feeling like he was “losing his back leg and collapsing backwards.”

Part of the problem was weakness, but another was bad learned mechanics. “When you do it for so long one way, of course the other way isn’t going to feel right,” Moss said, agreeing that it was like a pitcher trying to unlearn bad habits acquired while trying to deal with a nagging injury. “I am dealing with mechanics I learned to cope,” he said.

MossBeforeMossAfter
Moss before he reopened up his stance (left), and after (right).

Two days before Rubby de la Rosa faced the Cardinals, Moss made a decision to go back to his old open stance, even if it didn’t feel right. He had enough strength to “get down into” his legs, and make it work, and immediately he felt that he was seeing the ball better.

Said Moss:

“When I’m standing taller and closed, because I don’t have any room to gather myself, my shoulders are up and tight. And people said, relax your shoulders, my hands don’t go into a natural slot. Now when I open up, my shoulders are relaxed and on plane. It’s just how my body works. By the time the pitch comes, I’m closed, but this allows me to see it all the way in.”

Now it was time to deal with refining his approach at the plate. To sum up what he wanted to do, Moss said that he was “Not looking for a pitch, not looking for a fastball or a breaking ball, or up or down. Try to be easy to the ball, on time, gather in my approach, and when you see a pitch you like, that’s when you swing. You’re ready for a pitch you like, not ready for a pitch you think they are going to throw.”

This may seem like a no-brainer, but it’s something Ryan Braun also admitted to me recently. “I wish I had the discipline to constantly sit on the pitch down the middle,” the Brewers’ slugger told me. “I would probably more successful. You get an idea of how you are being pitched by a pitcher or by a team pretty quickly, though. And then you anticipate that pitch, and you think ‘slider away to the right-handed hitter’ and you’re more likely to go out of the zone to chase the pitch if it actually is a slider away.”

Moss sounds just like Braun when he talks of this skill. “When you’ve played the game long enough, you know yourself well enough to know what you’re set up for. There’s a sequence, and you know where you are on that, and you get caught in the guessing game. Then you swing just because you guessed right,” Moss felt.

It’s a struggle to keep your mind open and not fall into the anticipation game. It’s a struggle from at-bat to at-bat, and it’s a struggle within one at-bat.

Listen to Moss talk about his first plate appearance against de la Rosa on August 27th: “He started me off with a changeup, for a ball. Then he went slider for a strike, and then he went fastball up and away for a ball. I said he’s going to throw that changeup down, 100%. And he threw the changeup down, and I swung over the top of it for strike two. JUST BECAUSE HE THREW IT, YOU DON’T HAVE TO SWING. I got so frustrated with myself. He ended up throwing it again, and I wasn’t sitting on it, and I hit a hard ball to the first baseman, and he made a good play. You do so much better when you don’t sit pitches. I wasn’t telling myself what was coming.”

MossFirst
Brandon Moss knew this changeup was coming, in this location.

Even after learning his lesson in the first tussle, Moss still had fight his tendency to anticipate the pitch. “Same thing next at-bat,” he said. “He got me 0-2 with two fastballs. Then it was fastball in, slider in, changeup down, fastball in. And I laid off all of them because I was telling myself, don’t sit on a pitch. I guarantee that once it got to 2-2, even in my head I had to fight it, I knew he was going to throw that changeup. And he did. I didn’t just sit on it and try to swing because I was right. I ended up walking.”

MossSecond
Here’s the changeup that Moss knew was coming, but laid off.

In the third at-bat, Moss felt like he was truly seeing de la Rosa well, and his open stance was letting him see the ball longer. Together, that set him up for success: “Wonger got a hit, and we were down a run, and there were two outs, and it was the top of the fifth, and he’s going to try and get a quick out, he’s probably going to throw that changeup. Don’t worry about it, I said to myself, just see the ball up. And he hung a changeup and I hit a homer. If I had told myself to sit on the changeup, I might have been looking down.”

MossThird
Here’s the changeup that Moss tried to avoid anticipating.

Moss thought that he might be better on first pitches because he had less opportunity to think about what was coming. Later in the at-bat, he thinks himself into trouble. “I hit first pitches better because I don’t think, I just react,” the slugger said. “And 3-2 is such a bad count for me because I’ve been in the at-bat so long to see the sequence, and you almost know what it’s going to be, and it’s going to be your worst pitch or their best pitch. Either way, you shouldn’t swing on it just because you got it.”

Brandon Moss’ Adjusted Production by Count
Count Adjusted OPS
3-0 Count 238
3-1 Count 218
2-0 Count 189
First Pitch 171
2-1 Count 166
1-1 Count 158
0-1 Count 143
Full Count 139
1-0 Count 120
2-2 Count 17
1-2 Count 7
0-2 Count -15
SOURCE: www.baseball-reference.com

The stance had something to do with the approach, and the approach had something to do with the stance. Ever since Moss opened back up, he feels he “started seeing the ball better, stopped chasing so many pitches, and it’s only been like 8 at-bats, but every at-bat has been better. Every at-bat has been laying off close pitches and swinging at strikes, and I feel like that’s been the problem. When you’re not in good position, you tend to give the pitcher a strike in every at-bat.”

So getting it right meant getting right physically and mentally. And that’s not easy to do in the middle of a 162-game grind.

“In-season adjustments are hard. Not only are you fighting things here and now, the lack of strength, the fact that it’s a long year and you’re playing after a rehab, but it’s also the fact that you’re fighting the demons from the year before,” Moss said of his struggles. “That became the normal, and now that I’m trying to get back to it, my mind is telling me it doesn’t feel right.”

If Brandon Moss keeps up the tear like the one he’s been on since he made the change — he’s batting .400/.520/1.000 in the 25 plate appearances since — here’s thinking that it’s beginning to feel right for the slugger.





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

45 Comments
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BigDaddyCool
10 years ago

Yawn

steex
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

Sorry, for my benefit, could you please provide Eno a reminder about which topics he’s allowed to cover? Or would it be better for the writers to run an outline of every piece by you before writing?

Whichever is easier for you, I hate how these guys are ruining BDCGraphs lately.

ReuschelCakes
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

A compendium of quotes from BDC on recent articles:

re Piscotty: “I do not believe in this swing change. Piscotty is a mediocre player who would not be talked about if he were a Cubs’ prospect.” (-54 downvotes)

re Bumgarner: “we just have small sample size October success propping up his standing as a pitcher. MadBum is a good, above-average pitcher. He certainly is no “star”” (-25 downvotes)

re: Pirates: “And, of course, Kang probably isn’t this kind of player and will likely regress. Remember Kosuke Fukudome?” (-57 downvotes)

I mean, it is certainly up to the INDIVIDUAL to decide if he or she thinks BDC is an assclown, but I might suggest that the COLLECTIVE has already decided.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago
Reply to  ReuschelCakes

I did post those and I stand by them. I did not post the “yawn” comment. I do not post like that. If I had a problem with this article I would give a much longer and more insightful post. Please do not be fooled by the BigDaddyCool impostors. They do not post like me. My past rhetoric speaks for itself.

Matt Smith
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

Why do you post your thoughts anyway? I mean, the reasoning for posting is to get a new idea across, voice disagreement in a way that begets change in the minds of fellow readers, or possibly prove your intelligence (the last one is a reasoning I do not like but one I will ackowledge as logical). By posting, you do none of those three. It would probably benefit you if you are shooting for the 2nd or 3rd reasoning for posting to make sure your rhetoric is more tactful so as to accomplish your goal.
Also, I love how it’s always simplistic thoughts that have no backing. But I guess if you’re just posting to instigate people then you can continue to be disliked by everyone. If that’s the case, I may start posting as you just to make you look less intelligent too.

chuckb
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

It may be longer, but there’s certainly no precedent that would lead anyone to believe it would be insightful.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

chuckb – if you don’t see insight in my posts than I don’t know what to tell you, but I would guess you are a fan of one of the teams I pointed out gets lucky a lot. Cardinals?

I bring a perspective that is unique. You would think the community would welcome the insight I have to offer and learn from it, but the groupthink is really strong here, and I’m starting to think it will take more than BigDaddyCool to break the spell.

Jason B
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

“I bring a perspective that is unique.”

So does the meth addict ranting about the end of days on the street corner in his underwear, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s adding anything useful to the discourse.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

Jason B – Thank you for comparing me to a meth addict in the street in his underwear. I’m sure you apply these astute observations to your everyday life. Must be nice to work as a janitor at a local dive bar.

I know you don’t work in business or any other respectable profession, because that kind of rhetoric would get you fired on the spot.

ReuschelCakes
10 years ago

Great work, Eno — thanks!

The intersection of Moss & Sarris is truly some valuable real estate!!

baltic wolfMember since 2026
10 years ago
Reply to  ReuschelCakes

Yep. I’d love to say more about how much I enjoyed this article—being someone who owns Moss in a deep league in fantasy—but ever since I “upgraded” from Windows 8 to Windows 10, I can’t type in any comment on FG or RG without it taking forever.

Eminor3rd
10 years ago

Nice work, Eno.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago

I am the worst person ever.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

Yawn.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

I will soon be drunk and bringing the ignorant rage. Stay tuned.

Sam
10 years ago

I had been thinking the Moss/ Kaminsky trade was pure disaster for the Cardinals but Moss is giving the Cardinals some hope that he’s a Will Clark-style flash that could be really valuable, especially since Adams may not be back.

Brian
10 years ago

LOVE this piece. Thank you, Eno. Ted Williams said he used to guess at pitches all the time, and I’d always assumed that if you guessed right, you hit paydirt. It never occurred to me – before reading Braun and Moss’ comments – that there can be downsides to guessing right.

Only Glove, No Love
10 years ago
Reply to  Brian

That was my favorite part as well.

I have watched almost all of Moss’ ABs this year and my eyes agree with what he says. Moss appears to have gone from looking utterly lost to a professional hitter in the last few games.

I am betting he beats out Big Mayo for 1b next year. He has not looked nearly as bad as the stats say he is at first. But then they say he is Big Papi bad and that is nearly impossible unless one is Pedro Alvarez.

Matt
10 years ago

he’s batting .400/.520/1.000 in the 25 plate appearances since

Hes even had a couple line drives right at guys for outs during this stretch also. Hitting the ball hard everywhere.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago

Just fyi, I did not post the above posts. So many imposters on here. I will need to change my username. Actually think it’s a good piece Eno. Not a fan of Moss going forward, but I do appreciate your work.

Famous Mortimer
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

BDC, why not just register an account, and get yourself a nice avatar, too? That way we won’t be fooled by any impostors.

TKDC
10 years ago

When you’re the kind of poster that people regularly impost (is that a word?) maybe another solution is a little bit of introspective self evaluation?

TKDC
10 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

The real me would know it’s “imitate,” but nice try.

Only Glove, No Love
10 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

Actually it is “impersonate”.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago

Mortimer – I would like to do that. How do I register?

TKDC – Actually I have been doing a little introspection and admit some of my rhetoric could have been phrased with less hostility. I think the problem is most people know me from when I went off on a Gregory Polanco article by Jeff last week. Let me explain a little, as I was not in a good frame of mind that day. I had a bad day at the office and stopped by my local spot and had a couple extra dirty martinis (fyi, I drink 1/3 Gin, 1/3 dry vermouth and 1/3 Peggy Sue olive juice. One way to do a martini justice. And don’t get me started on vodka martinis. They’re a crime against humanity). Anyway, I get home and of course looking to unwind I go to my favorite baseball site and first thing I see if some long post about Gregory Polanco, which drives me crazy because he is just not a good player. Needless to say I lost my temper a bit and was not myself. I apologize for that.

Only Glove, No Love
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

So you are saying you are a mean and ignorant drunk?

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

OGNL – A couple dirties doesn’t make you drunk, my friend, unless you’re a serious lightweight. I was not angry and ignorant. I was just a little revved up and maybe too aggressive in my arguments, which were still sound btw. What I’m trying to say is I will try to make my phrasing more palletable so as not to cloud the points I’m trying to make.

The reason for this is that people attack me by focusing on the fact they think I’m “mean” and “not nice” to their franchises, because they know my points are right on. I want people to judge me by my arguments, which is all I’ve ever asked.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

Note on the above post: Alas, I will admit to stating a point incorrectly… the name of the olive juice I use in my dirties is “Dirty Sue,” not “Peggy Sue.”

Famous Mortimer
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5793/21079414806_48cf8c11ef_o.jpg

This is a picture of the top of this very page, with a red arrow pointing to the “Register” link.

BuckoSama
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

1/3 Vermouth??
I hate Olives, but I understand that people like that stuff somehow, so I won’t object to that, but anything more than a 1:4 (pref 1:5) Vermouth to Gin Ratio is an insult to the Gin. What are you drinking, Burnett’s out of a plastic bottle?

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

BuckoSama – That’s the new school approach: eschew the Vermouth for basically gin in a glass with an olive or lemon twist. However, martini’s were traditionally “wet” (about equal parts gin and vermouth). And no, I don’t use crap gin, I use Ford’s Gin, which IMO is the best martini gin out there. As for the olive juice, the saltiness and kick balances out the gin and vermouth nicely.

If I want to drink straight gin, as I do from time to time, I’ll drink it neat with a good book in the study. However, I’m not into chilling a glass, dumping straight gin into it, and calling it a martini.

FM Mood
10 years ago

Awesome, your stuff with Moss is always gold.

Jetsy Extrano
10 years ago

That’s really interesting that when he knows what pitcher’s pitch is coming, he tends to swing. If have guessed it would be: I think he’s going to throw a changeup low, if he misses high I’ll crush that.

EDogg1438
10 years ago

How is Moss’ OPS+ 20 points higher in 0-1 than 1-0?

Is that just for this year? Doesn’t seem like a sustainable trend for most batters.

ReuschelCakes
10 years ago
Reply to  EDogg1438

Had the same question and looked on b-ref…. they are career numbers.

Of note however, the stats that Eno posted are the figures for PAs which terminate at that count… I personally prefer the splits for all PAs which GET to that count. A few observations of the differences below:

1. If you use the “after” counts you get 1-0 counts are 121 OPS+ versus 0-1 counts at 62

2. The “after” counts have over 1,000 career PAs (almost 2 seasons worth each) versus the “terminate” counts which have like 160ish each (not even 2mos each)

3. the “terminate” 0-1 count data getting to the 142 OPS+ benefits from a 0.331 BABIP while the “terminate” 1-0 count is hurt by a 0.250 BABIP (versus Moss’ career 0.294 BABIP) — again, these are based on sample sizes which are the equivalent of less than 2mos of PAs…

radermecher
10 years ago

Moss stated last night,he has begun leg work again,this and other factors mentioned,seemed to help his current state.

Only Glove, No Love
10 years ago

LULZ>

Moss just absolutely cadaverized a Scherzer pitch.

5 for 8 with 2 homers. On base 7 times.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago

Pretty good shot, I will admit. BUT, we must keep in mind that so called “hot” and “cold” streaks are a creation of the human mind in an attempt to gain meaning out of small sample size. Moss’s overall numbers this season are still quite poor. Now, if you know anything about regression to the mean, you should know hot streaks are likely to happen when a player has been playing very poorly for awhile and are not indicative of true talent.

Once again, the human brain tries to gain meaning out of randomness. This is not your fault. I did this too before I began my extensive reading into the subject and learned the significance of letting go of random events and not assigning meaning to them.

mikey
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

This is a poor understanding of streaks and the article’s central theme. Streaks in statistics are a creation of the human mind, however, seeing the ball better due to a change in approach could change the baseline to which the mean should be regressed. While Moss has had poor numbers this season, he has not over the past few seasons. This season appears to be the outlier rather than the other way around. This was likely due to approach and injury related issues. He seems to be playing significantly better than he has at any point this season right now and it coincides with what Eno is writing.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago

Watching this game on ESPN because I do actually like to watch baseball games. The aesthetic of the game has pleased me since youth. And I did just see Moss swing and miss on a pitch right down the middle. Now OGNL, if your argument that Moss’s home run early is indicative of his true talent, then what are we to make of that very ugly looking strike out? Would we then not also have to say that THAT is indicative of his true talent.

Only Glove, No Love
10 years ago
Reply to  BigDaddyCool

wRC+ 2012-2015 (including injury) 160, 138, 121, 96.

I think his “true talent” is pretty damn good and coming back on line.

But maybe not, he is still coming back or may never come back from the injury.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4467&position=1B/OF

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago

The Cardinals are cheaters and their FO is corrupt. I am not buying this Moss new/old swing thing. I think his best comp is a poor man’s Ryan Leaf. Or a rich man’s Rod Stewart. Either way, I think we all need to realize that the Cubs are a team in major league baseball.

BigDaddyCool
10 years ago

Not me. And honestly, not even a half way good imitation of me. The trolls are out tonight.

Deal wtih the devil
10 years ago

Oh come on, Moss goes to the Cardinals and “learns’ how to hit again? It is just more evidence that the Cardinals have a deal with the devil.