Paul Sporer FanGraphs Chat – 9/2/15

Paul Sporer: We’ll get started shortly, y’all!

Comment From Tony
Hi, Paul.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
What’s up with Scherzer? Is he due for a good start against the Cards tonight?

Paul Sporer: Too many HRs lately. It’s correctable. It’s not like we’re seeing a collapse of skills so I’m not all that worried, but HRs sting and that’s what we’re seeing outta Max. I don’t know what’s causing them, but they are definitely behind his struggles

Comment From Anthony
How would you set up the Mets pitching staff for the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Good question. I’d imagine deGrom, Harvey, Thor, and Colon. I could see them putting Colon in between Harvey & Thor because he’s such a change of pace from the two power pitchers.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Schwarber in an OBP-league where he qualifies as a catcher. Worth a second round pick in a redraft league?

Paul Sporer: That’s probably too high for me based on 189 PA (plus whatever he does this month). Remember the Great Brett Lawrie Hype of 2011? He had a 153 OPS+ in 171 PA (Schwarber’s at 148 in 189 so far)

Comment From Jon M.
Paul Sporer, effff yesssss. I have Mark Canha, would you drop him for Brandon Moss in an OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Moss has gotten his stuff together a bit with StL, so I’m sticking with him in OBP

Comment From Total Clown
Is there any evidence to suggest that Jeff Sullivan is not, in fact, a wizard?

Paul Sporer: None that I’ve seen.

Comment From GarClo
The Jays have extended their winning streak to 1 game. Will they ever lose again?

Paul Sporer: Doubtful.

Comment From tony
help! need a spot starter this week.. Samardzjia @ MIN, Happ @ STL, Martin Perez @LAA?

Paul Sporer: I’m buying the Happ resurgence w/PIT. Not necessarily the 1.98 ERA, but the quality work. StL isn’t winning with offense so it’s not like they need to be feared like the Jays

Comment From Cory S.
Hello. Who has the most influence on one-run W/L record? Is it all bullpen? I think manager play a huge role.

Paul Sporer: Luck and bullpen.

Comment From Kiley
When will you finally fill out your frame and touch the low 80s?

Comment From Shyam
Marlins have an early game today, shouldn’t you be warming up? #SporerIsYelich

Paul Sporer: I’m trying to pack on pounds, but it doesn’t work!

Comment From Dr. Hoist
What pitchers you rolling with in the early slate today for DFS?

Paul Sporer: I’m fine being compared to Yelich. He’s a beast.

Paul Sporer: I’d probably go Iglesias and Heaney. On a short slate like that, I like to avoid the obvious arms (Gray and Tanaka) when possible

Comment From Andy
Trying to decide on streaming ROS in 10tmH2H for these SP: Zimmermann, Severino, Matz, Iglesias. Carrasco inj. and have room for 2. Or just keep 2 on roster ROS instead of streaming.

Paul Sporer: you have all of those guys? or they’re the options? I’d get whatever remains out of Sev and Iglesias this year

Comment From Neal
Are you excited for the father-son reunion of Stroman and Buerhle?

Paul Sporer: Can’t wait!

Comment From polarbear
Hi, Adam Eaton looks to be the leader so far as to who is next year’s Brantley/Pollock in my opinion. His HR totals do seem reasonable. He’s changed his approach evident by his plate discipline numbers. His average distance is up almost 10 feet. He has good speed, but he won’t get many rbi opportunities most likely. Is he the best bet?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind it. I was excited about him last year and surprise, surprise I was a year early (a chronic issue for me). His ’15 is what I was hoping for in ’14. I can definitely see him doing more in ’16

Comment From Josh G
What do you expect from Shoemaker in September?

Paul Sporer: More of the same. Can be really good when on and keeping the ball low, but when the ball is up, he’s toast.

Comment From Total Clown
Are there any SPs who throw from the stretch with bases empty? Is it possible that throwing exclusively from the stretch for a starter could produce better results with runners on base, due to a greater comfort level?

Paul Sporer: Carrasco is one

Comment From Kris
if i have the bench room, is gallo worth holding? or rather use that spot for a streamer or something?

Paul Sporer: I’d just stream. He’s been dreadful in AAA. Too many holes in the swing right now.

Comment From Josh G
How many more starts do you expect this year from Raisel Iglesias? What are your thoughts on him for 2016?

Paul Sporer: I have no real idea unfortunately bc we don’t even have a good read on how many IP he had last year. I’d guess 3-4 max.

Comment From Kris
Hey Paul, could you pick 2 for next year between: Last round Buxton, Last round C-Dickerson, Last round Soler, 16th round Rendon. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Dickerson and Rendon

Comment From Real Talk
Hey Paul! Thanks for taking the time. I know you just did a call-ups show, but I’m curious if you see any recent/potential AL callups/returns (Severino, Owens, Ketel, JBJ, Rusney, Pompey, Moya, Berrios, Hutch, Gallo, Refsnyder) being only-league keepers at $10. Keep up the excellent work!

Paul Sporer: I’m buying JBJ’s surge more than most. I could see him, Sev, and even Rusney being worth $10 in AL-only. I’m a big Berrios guy, but that’s too much to pay on spec

Comment From Hank
Is AJ Pollock the greatest baseball player in the world? No but seriously, who saw this coming? The guy has been incredible this season. Do you value him as a top 10-15 OF going in to next season in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I can say I was pretty geeked on him coming into the season. That was also the case coming into ’14 and he was brilliant before the injury. I’m a Pollock guy. Not the only one for sure, but definitely one of his proponents. I can see him in that top 15 range for sure

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Do home/road splits matter?

Paul Sporer: Certainly. How much they matter varies from park-to-park. But in general guys are better at home than on the road

Comment From Pale Hose
In DFS do you prefer balance or stars and scrubs?

Paul Sporer: Really depends on the pitching available. I will pay the premium for SPs so sometimes that means I have to have scrubs hitting, at least a couple

Comment From Neal
Jeff Sullivan may not be a wizard, but Jose Bautista is a male witch.

Comment From Mitch
Who’d you rather for 2016: $4 Verlander or $7 Holland?

Paul Sporer: Is that Derek? I’ll still take JV at $3 lower cost

Comment From Josh G
Why can’t Kyle Hendricks pitch to his peripherals? Bad luck or something more?

Paul Sporer: Small margin for error w/sub-90 MPH heater so when he’s off, he’s way off (5 starts of 5+ ER). Love the GB rate and he doesn’t walk guys so that should prevent a total implosion (like an upper-4s ERA)

Comment From Pale Hose
Is the bulk of offensive strategy in DFS chasing home runs?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s the overarching offensive strategy in fantasy baseball as a whole. Nothing is more valuable than a HR. But yeah, especially when you’re looking at the scrubs to fill out your roster, you want guys who can go yard. So guys like Stephen Drew are relatively popular roster fillers bc the one thing he does is hit HRs

Comment From roto-less
Is it time to drop Teixeira? I’m in a close race (in most categories).

Paul Sporer: Would need more details to feel great about an answer, but in most mixers you could

Comment From Bart
Should I bench Trevor Bauer today vs Tor?

Paul Sporer: Definitely.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
Expectations for Davies?

Paul Sporer: Fifth-starter type right now. Eno and I discussed him on the pod yesterday

Comment From Vic Romano
In what percentage of leagues do you think Schwarber will be the #2 C off the board next year?

Paul Sporer: 62.8%

Comment From Noah
Are you sure bullpen affects 1 run game WP%? I’ve read studies that suggest otherwise (namely, that it’s all luck).

Paul Sporer: I mean, I did say Luck first. But bullpens are a huge component. I can’t see how they wouldn’t be.

Comment From Slim Shady
-next Brantley/ Pollock is Jackie Bradley JR or David Peralta…is it possible?

Paul Sporer: JBJ could definitely be. Peralta is probably at-peak already. Doesn’t have the speed to be a Brantley/Pollock, either. I like Peralta, but I doubt there’s another step in ’16

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
What round is Polanco drafted in (10 team) next season?

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
What round is Polanco drafted in (10 team) next season?

Paul Sporer: That’s really tough to guess. I’m going to be eyeing him as a mid-rounder with a high floor (should at least deliver good speed w/some pop) and a great ceiling if it all clicks next year

Comment From Bart McFly
Surprised you guys didn’t touch on Matt Moore on the podcast, but maybe that’s a testament to how bad he was his first go-round. Something seemed to click in the minors though, and it looks like he may slide in for Karns. Expectations this year and next? Seems he’s been some control issues away from an ace.

Paul Sporer: I dunno, Jason and I discussed him weekly for quite a while. Figured he’s been covered. Until he does something in the majors, it’s all talk. We know the raw talent is there, but can he command anything in the majors is what we need to see

Comment From Josh Donaldson
I bunted…? Do I know not that power hitters are supposed to go for dingers every at bat?

Paul Sporer: Perhaps he was instructed to do so

Comment From Hank
Dexter Fowler looks like he’s going to have a 20/20 season. Do you think he would be a sneaky good sign for a team that loses out on Jason Heyward? Maybe even the Cardinals? He’s like a poor mans George Springer…

Paul Sporer: yeah I think he can be a very nice signing for someone not willing to pay full freight for Heyward

Comment From Tony
What do you see out of Olivera the next few years?

Paul Sporer: I really don’t know. I’ve never seen him. He’s 30 which tamps down expectations, but he could definitely have a solid 3-4 year run. I think fantasy baseball is a little ageist so I don’t want to shut him down simply bc he’s 30

Comment From Bart
Joey Gallo a keeper for 2016?

Paul Sporer: AL-only for very cheap

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
How many 80 PV players are in MLB today? Could you list them? Just trying to get an idea on EXACTLY what is 80 and what is 70-75

Paul Sporer: Trout. Harper, Kershaw, Goldy, Cutch for sure. A handful of others certainly show 80-level with regularity – Sale, healthy Fern. I can’t think of everyone off the top. I’m not a scout, but it’s a select group of 80s for sure

Comment From Pale Hose
Watching Fear the Walking Dead? Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: No idea what that means

Comment From Total Clown
Paul has an issue being premature, by his own admission

Paul Sporer: It happens

Comment From Paul!
Man, I would usually be super pumped for a SporerChat(c) but I actually had a question for Cameron today… one he might have answered without snark. Guess I’m still kind of pumped though.

Paul Sporer: LOL, sorry! I’m the Carter Capps of the FG bullpen.

Comment From Pale Hose
Do you think playoff teams are set, or will there be a September surprise?

Paul Sporer: I think something will change. I have a hard time calling anything set with a month to go.

Comment From Josh G
Would you start Nola tonight @ Mets? He’s been on a roll but so has the Mets offense.

Paul Sporer: Yes I would. Mets O is greatly improved and no longer the pick-on team they were earlier in the year, but I like what I’ve seen from Nola

Comment From Johnny5Alive
now if wilmer flores could only get fake traded once a month, hed be an unstoppable force in the middle infield

Paul Sporer: LOL, right? Seems like he’s been around FOREVER bc he hit the scene SO young. Could still be a stud.

Comment From I am the walrus
I see managers adjusting their lineups so as to not have 2 lefties back to back. What’s the difference, they have several righties back to back?

Paul Sporer: Lefty-lefty is the toughest matchup combo

Comment From Tony
Who is the Nationals manager 3 months from now?

Paul Sporer: Matt Williams. i think they might give him a pass for this year saying it’s the injuries and not him

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
O/U Harper has 4.5 HRs ROS?

Paul Sporer: O, 6

Comment From Paul!
Re: the idea of a balanced schedule and taking top 5 teams for playoffs… why not just have teams play 5 – 6 game series against a team? That would dramatically reduce travel vs. 3-4 games now, and each team would see each starter in the rotation.

Paul Sporer: Do we really need to dramatically reduce travel? These guys aren’t going by train or even commercial flights. I realize the season is a grind, but I don’t think they need to look at this kind of stuff. I think they’re more likely to shorten the schedule

Comment From Biscuit
Ima add Derek Holland….drop Jimmy Nelson or Gio?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been a Gio guy all year, but it’s not working. So I’ll say him

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
Does Alex Guerrero’s contract only have the trade stipulation through the end of this season or could he be traded in the offseason without the FA release penalty? Is he a starter on the Dodgers, starter somewhere else, or riding pine in LA next season?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I don’t know if it extends past this year

Comment From FreakLightning
Hi! Is this the beginning of Gregory Polanco realizing his potential? Where do you peg his ceiling in traditional stat categories? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Might not all come at once. He will be a breakout candidate for me next year (.280-18 HR-30 SB kinda season as a target), but he is still just 23 so it could take until ’17 to see the really big year

Comment From kevinthecomic
Which expanded roster hitter(s) and pitcher(s) stand to have the most impact over the rest of the regular season?

Paul Sporer: Primary discussion on yesterday’s pod: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
I pick #7 in Fantasy Football…who should I take?

Paul Sporer: Antonio Brown

Comment From Marc
What should we expect from springer ROS?

Paul Sporer: More or less the same we’ve seen this year, but maybe a little less power since it’s a wrist

Comment From Marc
is something wrong with Scherzer?

Paul Sporer: See earlier in the chat. One of the first Qs. It’s HRs right now. Needs to clean up the command

Comment From polarbear
Thanks for the response! Interesting you bring up Happ. He’s getting more groundballs and using the cutter and fastball more. Most interesting may be the potential effect of Cervelli and his pitch framing skills. Happ has double the amount of called strikes in August than throughout the rest of the season. Will be interesting to review at season’s end!

Paul Sporer: The Pirates Effect!

Comment From tommy
is JBJ actually meaningfully different as a hitter? still bad problems with contact, no real change in plate discipline, and nothing in his minors numbers suggest he can sustain above-average power output

Paul Sporer: So you think his numbers prior to the run are the real him? No real change in plate discipline bc it was already good. We’ve seen guys with much higher K%s do more than Bradley. 27-28% isn’t ideal, but hardly crippling. FB and Pull rates both up from 36% to 42%, pretty substantial change. Lotta people buried a 24 year old after 530 PA.

I’d caution against using MiLB numbers as too much of a measure anyway, but I don’t think JBJ’s paint a poor picture: .294/.391/.460 in 1376. Nothing in there suggesting above avg pwr output? .166 ISO for career, .170 in AAA. The league’s CFs are at .143 and OFs at large are at .156. I’ve never understood the JBJ hate.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
The Dodgers still have the best WS odds at 20.8%. Do you agree with that?

Paul Sporer: Not with that bullpen

Comment From Noah
Re: Hendricks; I imagine a deflated LOB% has something to do with the high ERA

Paul Sporer: It deflated from last year’s completely unsustainable level, but I don’t think it’s out of line for his skills and stuff.

Comment From Marc
Have HanRam and just added Baez — Should i be looking to add a short stop for next weeks playoff game? (Lineup locks for the week at first pitch so no swapping/streaming) Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ya you’re going pretty risky w/those two. PT could be tight.

Comment From Dr. Hoist
Medlen worth hanging on to in a 10 team dynasty if he finishes the season stron? He would probably be a $1 to keep.

Paul Sporer: Maybe. It feels great bc he’s $1, but how much more will he really go next year? Maybe $4? Too much injury history for me to keep in a 10-teamer

Comment From Sean
Has Tyler Clippard broken xFIP? His is currently at 5.50 — dead last among qualified relievers. It certainly gives ammo to sabermetrics detractors…

Paul Sporer: Does it? Does one outlier in a stat give ammo to the detractors? All stats have outliers, trying to use them to prove or disprove the whole is foolish. The small samples and volatility of RPs make them a poor fit for predictors as a whole. His .195 BABIP is tiny, but he’s always held great BABIPs bc he induces tons of weak contact. xFIP regresses his HR/FB to 11%, a level he hasn’t been at since 2009

Comment From Rob
How about a deal with Votto going to the White Sox and Abreu coming back to the Reds? Obviously some money would have to go to the White Sox, and some other pieces would need to be involved. The White Sox desperately need OBP! Is this a crazy idea?!

Paul Sporer: Yes it is. I don’t know why CWS would do that.

Comment From Los
What is your nerdiest guilty pleasure?

Paul Sporer: I don’t like the idea of guilty pleasures. I’m not embarrassed by the stuff I like. I love the MLB The Show game on PS4 and have played a TON of it this spring/summer.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
the mets are done

Paul Sporer: cool… story… bro?

Comment From Jnol
My fantasy league is down the final week of the season. I’m in 3rd place (playoffs clinched) and my friend is in 2nd (.5 GB behind 1st). We are playing each other this week and he offered me $100 to tank ($300 for 1st place regular season). It’s a keeper league and the guy in first place is playing one of the team that gave up long ago and traded any decent players he had. What do you think about that?

Paul Sporer: That is a definition of collusion and it’s super-shitty.

Comment From Cory S.
Schwarber can’t hit lefties. That’s worrisome.

Paul Sporer: It’s been 53 PA, pretty early to say he can’t. He hasn’t yet, but to say he can’t is aggressive. Rizzo couldn’t either, until he could: .618, .599, .625, .928, and .931 OPS by year

Comment From Brigadier Pudding
10 team H2H with W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, BSV. Thoughts on punting SP in playoffs? My SP is real weak, lots of good relievers available.

Paul Sporer: it’s a strategy for sure. you’re conceding W, K, and maybe even BSV for SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP… the risk is a couple rough outings from your RPs could cost you ERA or WHIP. It’s definitely risky, but totally viable

Comment From MSW
How high is too high for Sano (at 3B) next year?

Paul Sporer: I love the power and he’s been unreal, but he’s still fanning at a 36% clip. The league will catch up if he doesn’t fix that. I can’t really get toooooo aggressive with him next year so I’d be thinking 6th round at the earliest probably. (I’m not great at guessing rounds this far in advance w/out making a list)

Comment From Vic Romano
In a league using QS as a category, it’s safe to drop Jason Hammel now, right? Maddon seems to have decided that he’s not a guy that can go more than 5 innings anymore.

Paul Sporer: if there’s a viable alternative, it’s OK. I think the hammy was an issue for quite a while, though. He seems to be finally over and could go back to 6+ IP outings, but it’s crunch time so your league standings might necessitate the move at this point

Comment From Josh G
Pick 2 of 3 for rest of 2015: Polanco, Fowler, JBJ

Paul Sporer: That’s the order. I like JBJ, but the other two are better right now

Comment From roto-less
More Teixeira data. 13 team roto (5×5) re-draft. Not a ton of great options on the wire, but I need to drop someone to activate Matz. FA bats = LaRoche, Conforto, Cron, E. Suarez, G. Bird, D. Valencia.

Paul Sporer: Love what Suarez has been doing

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
Another Chatter (I think it was Cameron) suggested in a one-game playoff going all bullpen because you can load up your roster with RPs and then change it for the potential Division Series. Are you on board with that? Does a team ever do it?

Paul Sporer: I understand why it’d be viable, but I don’t see it happening any time soon

Comment From Richard P.
Do teams generally plan to use 3 or 4 starters for the division series?

Paul Sporer: Really depends what they have available

Comment From Vic Romano
If Fowler does go 20/20, the Cubs kinda have to give him a QO, don’t they? I don’t think anybody has accepted of those yet, maybe he becomes the first?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I could see them giving him one (assuming he’s eligible, I know trades muck that up, but I think it’s in-season trades only).

Comment From Josh G
Where do you see Puig getting drafted in 12 teasers next year? Bro you think he’ll be a leading candidate to outperform draft slot?

Paul Sporer: I’m still a Puig fan and will be taking next year’s discount for him. He does strike me as one of those who will fall into the mid-rounds and has the chance to deliver first-second round performance

Comment From El Jefe
I have Sano as a last round keeper. Does he get 3B eligibility? He’s basically carrying my team.

Paul Sporer: He has 9. If it’s 10, yes. If it’s 20…. I dunno. Would still keep as a DH at that price

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
Is there anything I am missing or has Swihart definitely improved each month? How good can he be next year? Slash line and ____ overall catcher?

Paul Sporer: He’s improved, but when you start that low, you better improve. I don’t usually mess with young Cs. He can be league average (100ish wRC+) with a handful of HRs (8-10) and some SBs (6-8). I’m not seeing a SURGE

Comment From Please say Pirates
Who’s going to win the NL Central in 2016?

Paul Sporer: Cards

Comment From ctw
viscaino or c. smith for saves ROS?

Paul Sporer: Vizcaino. Wilhelmsen has the role in SEA

Comment From Duder
Following up on Swihart, would you drop Grandal for him ROS? I love me some Granzilla but with the shoulder I’m getting nothing out of him right now.

Paul Sporer: No, I love YG

Comment From TJH
looking for saves, continue to hold doolittle to take over closer role?

Paul Sporer: Anyone else available? I’ve held him allll year lol

Comment From Forsyth
I love you for your JBJ rant. Thank you for being level headed,

Paul Sporer: Thanks

Comment From e
can the Indians make a run at this thing?

Paul Sporer: They’ve got the pitching. I can definitely see it. I wouldn’t predict it bc they’re 5 back behind several teams, but I wouldn’t be surprised. might be too little too late

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
RE: Guerrero – Per Cots – “if traded, may become a free agent at season’s end” there is no year stipulation

Comment From DaveB
which of these would you least hate being stuck with RoS — Torii Hunter, Josh Hamilton, Will Venable

Paul Sporer: Veny

Comment From coach
If you have 5-6 game series you can’t have the schedule work so every Friday, Sat, and Sun are played by every team

Paul Sporer: And that’s why it won’t go into effect. I think the current structure will hold

Comment From El Jefe
Machado not an 80 PV? I’d consider Arenado a 75, too.

Paul Sporer: Probably. I’m pretty bad at off-the-top of my head lists. I need more time to sort it out. A handful of upper echelon guys like that

Comment From Josh G
Is there any way to view a player’s monthly plate discipline splits on FG?

Paul Sporer: Via gamelogs: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Mandatory High Socks
Did you see Ryan Dull pitch last night? 32nd round pick, looks like a 17 year old, terrific numbers shooting him up 3 levels this season

Paul Sporer: I didn’t. He look good?

Comment From Josh G
Is McCutchen still a first rounder next year with the decline in steals?

Paul Sporer: I think so. I think the speed drop will be overblown and then everyone will be surprised if he surges in speed next year. SBs are tough to figure for non-rabbits like Hamilton. I don’t think his SB skills have waned so much as he chose not to run as much

Comment From Mets
Granderson is 10th in the NL for WAR among position players. Does he get any love in MVP voting if the Mets make the playoffs (obviously not win it but top 10 or 15 finish)?

Paul Sporer: Probably not, but he’s the best player ever!!! (He was the namesake for my beagle!)

Comment From nate
Short list of SPs to scoop up for playoffs in a 10-teamer?

Paul Sporer: Who’s available?!

Comment From Mandatory High Socks
Are there any other teams that seem to systematically ‘produce’ players? A’s do it with #4 starters/catchers, Pirates make catchers / relievers, Cardinals make literally everything. Anyone else known for something?

Paul Sporer: I think you nailed the ones I’d have said. SD w/RPs. SF w/SPs. DET often good at getting an extra-level out of MLB acquisitions.

Comment From Shawn
Is it just me or does Chris Sale seem to be either absolutely dominant (as in I can’t believe anyone ever gets a hit off him) or kinda beat up. Aside from last night, he doesn’t seem to have many 6 IP 4 ER type starts. Why do you think that is? Just command?

Paul Sporer: I think guys have rough starts sometimes. We expect perfection from studs EVERY time out. Looks like he was BABIP’d some in Boston. 10 of the 12 hits were 1Bs

Comment From Marc
as a pirates fan, please reassure me that a one game playoff against Arrieta is going to be ok

Paul Sporer: Pirates can beat anyone for sure, but it won’t be easy v. either Cubs stud

Comment From Marc
Kang* will be the X best fantasy short stop next year? (*assuming the current pirate infield logjam gets cleared up and he plays everyday)

Paul Sporer: top 10

Comment From Lars
Would a hitter who gets a doink single through the right side off a bad pitcher that scores two runs because the RF has a weak arm see more of an uptick in his WAR than a hitter who hits a line drive single off the top of the wall to score one run?

Paul Sporer: I have no idea, I’m sorry. I’m in the non-math guys of FG. We have our own lunchroom.

Comment From Ziggy
Do Marte and Miller occupy SS/CF for the Mariners next year? If not, who moves and why?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t start penciling in anyone besides Felix and Cano.

Comment From Shawn
Does Giancarlo at 80-90% still have more power than almost anyone else in the league?

Paul Sporer: Pretty much. He’s ridiculous (in a good way).

Comment From Sal
Would you cut bait on Pence if you were me since there’s a max of 2.5 weeks left in my season and I’m not keeping him?

Paul Sporer: if he’s taking a spot you could use for someone else, yes

Comment From KilleBrews
Need to activate Matz for H2H playoffs starting next week. Any hesitation in dropping Shark?

Paul Sporer: How many teams? I’ve said I’m out on Shark rest of season so I’m OK w/it, but I’d try to at least reserve him in deeper formats

Comment From FireDrayton
Astros fan getting increasingly more nervous about the Rangers sneaking up on the division, despite the all of the evidence and numbers saying it’s really unlikely. How nervous should I be?

Paul Sporer: Nervous. Numbers don’t mean shit with a 3-game lead, IMO. I realize HOU’s run diff is way better, etc…, but it’s 3 games, that’s nothing with a month left and seven H2Hs. Y’all will have to earn it. Savor this September. It’s a great feeling when your team is relevant again

Comment From Marc
Sorry about the Scherzer Q! Jumped in late. Speaking of the Pirates Effect, any pitcher youd love to see them try and bring back from the dead? Big Time Timmy Jim is the first interesting one that pops into my head

Paul Sporer: I love that idea. I still think Lincecum has a second act as an RP

Comment From El Jefe
What’s your outlook on Joe Ross for the h2h playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Not great, but more bc of IP than skills

Comment From Bobby Blownilla
You trusting k. Hendricks or joe Kelly for qualit starts down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: Kelly is rolling, I’ll play the hot hand

Comment From john
any concerns about Starling Marte? He has been pretty bad lately

Paul Sporer: He tried to make me look foolish by hitting a HR the day I wrote this: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From ctw
off the top of your head, rank these potential keepers (triple slash): posey/arenado/degrom

Paul Sporer: Arenado, Posey, deGrom

Comment From Shyam
If Baez were guaranteed playing time, would you rank him in the top 12 among SS?

Paul Sporer: No

Comment From Mandatory High Socks
As an A’s fan, Pomeranz is the closer until he blows 2 in a row, FWIW

Paul Sporer: I can see that. I love Pomy.

Comment From Benny
Choo or Frankie G for the ROS?

Comment From Scott
Lets hear your World Series predictions

Paul Sporer: Franklin Gutierrez

Paul Sporer: Mets-Royals

Comment From Shawn
Is Charlotte named after anyone? Just like the name?

Paul Sporer: We just liked the name. I lobbied for JD after Martinez, but I didn’t press too hard

Comment From FireDrayton
Aaaaaah you were supposed to tell me everything’s gonna be OK! Thanks for answering. though.

Paul Sporer: LOL. I’m pulling for the Stros, but I can’t lie

Comment From AG
Let’s get some Joey Votto love, man! He’s a Fangraphs dream.

Paul Sporer: Votto is my dude. Been pumping him all year. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From Jose Berrios
Why haven’t the Twins called me up yet? I’m ready!

Paul Sporer: Agreed. Have no idea what’s taking so long.

Comment From Boris
Medlen or Raisel ROS? Assuming Raisel doesn’t get shut down…or is that a foregone conclusion?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, Raisel on talent alone, but there are real questions about how much longer he lasts and we dont’ have a clear read. Just ride him out

Comment From indyralph
If you are sticking to a strict interpretation of the scale, there should only really be 2 or 3 80 PV players at a time. So Trout and Kershaw basically, with arguments for Sale, Harper and Donaldson.

Paul Sporer: Sure. I don’t get too hung up on it as I’m not a scout.

Comment From nate
Pick 3 SPs down stretch: Shark, Heaney, Smyly, Rodon, Quintana.

Paul Sporer: I like the 3 young lefties, but all have IP concerns for youth or health reasons. So go with your two favorites there and a stabilizer like Q

Comment From Alice Cooper
@Marc Pirates beat up on Scherzer and Kershaw this year. The game will probably be played at PNC. And last, most importantly, last time I checked the Cubs are still the Cubs (not to steal your thunder Paul)

Comment From Shawn
As a Red Sox fan, I should be happy about getting DD right? My only concern is our bullpen is already bad, and he wasn’t exactly known in Detroit for piecing together stellar bullpens.

Paul Sporer: Definitely. I’d be thrilled. He didn’t have great pens, but not for a lack of effort. They just didn’t get the sneak hits, the scrap heap studs like Will Harris in Houston. That never happened in Detroit. They had bad pens, but some of it was plain bad luck.

Comment From Shawn
ok with dropping Buxton in a re-draft? I know the speed, but he’s making Billy Hamilton seems like an OBP machine

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Comment From anon
expectations for Gordon and Wright ROS?

Paul Sporer: Alex and David? Solid, not superstars

Comment From Alice Cooper
The Pirates don’t produce catchers…. they just pilfer them from the Yankees

Comment From Alice Cooper
@Marc

Comment From Shawn
Damnit, Paul. I really was going to try to get work done this afternoon…

Paul Sporer: LOL, I’m about to wrap up bc I too have to work

Paul Sporer: Although this is technically me working, but other work needs finishing, too

Comment From anon
Chances cubs sweep the awards (Madden, Rizzo, Bryant, Arrieta)?

Paul Sporer: Possible, but unlikely. Greinke has a 1.61 ERA. Arrieta isn’t a real threat until he’s under 2.00 IMO.

Comment From JohnnyFive
What’s your view on cutting a contract and taking a penalty against future years? For example, if I cut Ben Revere, I take a $10 penalty against my auction budget next year. Otherwise, I’m forced to keep him next year at $20. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Sometimes you gotta cut your losses; I’m ok with it

Comment From Cub Fanboy
Here’s a hypothetical I’ve been kicking around in my head for a while: how good of a fielder would someone have to be to justify a spot on a team, if they were a true-talent 100% K player. Absolute, automatic, non-productive out every time they come to the plate. But, what if they’re so fast they can effectively cover all 3 outfield positions? And then you can move your two corner outfielders to the infield. Obviously, no one could actually do that, but it’s a hypothetical man. Go wild

Paul Sporer: These kind of hyoptheticals are fun thought exercises. He’d have to be some kind of defensively to justify being a sure out. I’m not sure you could make up the difference defensively short of a non-real world scenario where they cover more than one position. I think it’d be easier to take someone who could make zero defensive plays and mash offensively.

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
Is Stroman top 20, 30, 40, 50 or over SP next season?

Paul Sporer: 40. Major upside, though. Can’t wait to see him back.

Comment From Chet
Gausman or Holland ROS?

Paul Sporer: Holland

Comment From Christian
Is Trout’s August slump and subsequent Angels free fall a telling indication of exactly how valuable Trout is?

Paul Sporer: I think that’s more narrative than truth. Pujols and Aybar also went in the tank. Richards (5.11), Weaver (5.59), and Santiago (6.21) were also brutal. Trout is remarkably valuable, but the whole team faltered, not just Trout

Comment From Josh G
If David Ortiz comes back next season, is there any reason to expect age-related regression will finally set in?

Paul Sporer: LOL I’ll still bet against him and probably be wrong. It’ll happen at some point and it’ll be steep.

Comment From Scott
Do you think the Pirates could utilize Radhames Liz as a starter? Their rotation has shown some inconsistency lately and it seems that he made some major improvements at AAA.

Paul Sporer: Liriano has been bumpy, but Cole, Morton, and Happ are still all sub-3.50. Liz is a bullpen arm, but could be an impact one

Comment From El Jefe
What kind of role does Wilmer Flores have next year? Starter at 2b?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think so

Comment From daneyko
Miguel Sano stats in 2016: HR, RBI, AVG

Paul Sporer: 31, 88, .233

Comment From L. Scott
The Cubs have a ton of games left vs. both PIT and STL. Is there any way the Giants can sneak up on them with their much easier remaining schedule? The playoff odds say Cubs 95.8% and Giants 2.0% for the Wild Card.

Paul Sporer: Always a way with this much time and a 6.5 gm deficit. Not *likely*, but far from out of the realm

Comment From Pete
What kind of hitter do you expect Sano to be in 2016? Keeper-worthy?

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league type. That K rate will catch up to him, but he’s awesome and a future star, IMO. Next year, he’ll likely be overvalued, but as a cheaper keeper, even a .230/30 HR season works

Comment From Scott
How does John Mozeliak of the Cardinals develop players better than Jack Z did in Seattle? Is it simply the staff he employs below him or is there some luck involved?

Paul Sporer: It’s not just those singular guys. It’s an organization top to bottom

Comment From jshiffy
Is Curtis Sporer worth a pickup for the playoffs? Seems to be crushing for the Austin Beagles.

Paul Sporer: Shiffy! He’s dominating, gotta get him in there. Qualifies at every position.

Comment From AG
Hah! having Votto in an OBP league is almost unfair. You’ve been living the dream since the ASB with him

Comment From ctw
just picked up yelich off the wire in a 10tm keeper, keep 8 and i have a decent team. chances i keep him this year over guys like Archer, Betances?

Paul Sporer: I’d keep Archer ahead of him even though I tend to lean away from arms, but unless Betances has the closer’s role, he can’t be kept in a keep 8, 10-teamer

Comment From jshiffy
@Cubs Fanboy aren’t you half talking about Ryan Goins? 🙂

Comment From Baseball lover atx
interesting

Paul Sporer: sneak-shit

Comment From xavier
Do you think we can say Smyly is back to what we all expected pre-injury?

Paul Sporer: Prior to the gem, it wasn’t looking great from what I read, so I’d be careful to make toooo much of his beating up a struggling BAL. I’m hanging onto him, but not auto-start in mixed leagues

Comment From jshiffy
in season long, should i play A. Escobar or V-mart at Utility this upcoming week?

Paul Sporer: Depends more on needs, but VMart is the better hitter even though he’s struggled for most of this year

Comment From Sal
Rough year finds me just missing playoffs and instead competing for the #1 pick in next year’s draft via winning the loser’s bracket.

14 team, keep 4 with keeper value based on last year’s draft round plus inflation. If I can grab #1 pick I don’t need to keep Miggy bc I can redraft him and would instead keep Dickerson (15th), Soler (15th), Stroman (20th) and likely one of deGrom (5th), D. Peralta (20th) or Vogt (20th). Of those 3 who do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Go deGrom there. Again, I usually prefer hitters, but there is still value in getting JdG as a fifth rounder (probably going in 2nd/3rd next year)

Comment From Hack Wilson
To the hypothetical, if you had an outfield of Hanley, Buxton, and Hamilton, would you play with 5 infeilders and Buxton and Hamilton in left and right center?

Paul Sporer: That’d be fun to see

Comment From Real Talk
Listening to Action Bronson’s Icky Woods. Just name checked Todd Hundley. I recommend to all.

Comment From Nick
Where do you think Price ends up next year? Think Toronto (with the new pres) will finally break from the 5 year policy and go strong for him?

Paul Sporer: I can def see it being TOR if they continue this dream season and at least make a playoff impact. But he will be widely sought after and I’d probably say LAD if forced to guess right now

Comment From Aron
What would your first few moves be as the incoming Mariners GM? In terms of roster moves, not personnel.

Paul Sporer: Man, that’s tough. Obviously with it being Sept, I’d want to get some younger guys some looks and see what we really have (like Montero)

Comment From jshiffy
fade work 🙂

Paul Sporer: Don’t know what this is referencing, tbh

Comment From Scott
What do you think happens to Pedro Alvarez after this season?

Paul Sporer: Platoon 1B for PIT or maybe traded

Paul Sporer: That’s it! The queue is clear. Thanks for coming, y’all.