Tigers Add Brad Penny for Rotation Depth
Although they upgraded their offense and bullpen earlier in the off-season, the Tigers still have a few weaknesses. Chief among them is the starting rotation. While Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer represent a quality one-two punch, the rest of the rotation remains a question. The Tigers helped strengthen the crew today by signing Brad Penny to a one-year, $3 million deal that could become $6 million if he reaches certain milestones. The move means the Tigers will be a bit stronger at the back end of the rotation.
Before signing Penny the Tigers had Verlander, Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Phil Coke, and Armando Galarraga penciled into the rotation. Those last two certainly don’t scream of a contender’s rotation. Coke’s career never really took off until he moved to the bullpen in 2008, and since then has started just one game — and even that was just 1.2 innings on the last day of the 2010 season. Galarraga, perfect game aside, has been mediocre to poor since his quality showing in 2008. The Tigers basically needed a better pitcher for one of those two spots, despite GM Dave Dombrowski’s stated contentment.
When put into this context, the Penny signing makes plenty of sense for the Tigers. His career numbers — 4.11 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.19 xFIP — suggest at least a No. 3 starter. Chances are that he’s not quite that good at this point in his career, especially in the AL, but even if he’s a tick worse than his career numbers in 2011 he still passes the test. Does he have more experience than Coke and is he better than Galarraga? If yes, proceed.
Any pitcher who signs for $3 million plus incentives in mid-January is going to have downsides. Penny has missed significant time in two of the last three seasons, and managed just nine starts last year before an oblique strain ended his season. The one healthy season came mostly in the AL, but he got hit hard while pitching for the Red Sox, a 5.61 ERA and 4.49 FIP. He managed just over 5.1 innings per start then.
At this point in the off-season we won’t see too many moves that inspire tons of excitement. Every remaining player has enough downsides to temper our reactions. Still, it’s easy to see how the Penny signing improves the Tigers. Unless his second experience in the AL is similar to his first, he’ll slot nicely into the fourth slot in the rotation and give the Tigers some flexibility at the end. That gives them some depth, since they can fall back on Coke, Galarraga, or even Andy Oliver when something goes wrong. Since something is virtually guaranteed to go wrong, bringing in some mid-rotation depth always helps.
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
Brad Penny is no Cliff Lee
But Drew Smyly is.
Extremely poor decision by the Tigers who I believe usually make good ones. Penny is a decent pitcher when health (which he really hasn’t been since his Marlin days) and in the NL. He’s an ex flame thrower who never adjusted to a decline in velocity, which can be masked against generally weaker NL lineups..which he will not be facing except for maybe 3 games versus the Indians. Francis or Young or both? would have been a better risk/reward investment.
Last year his average FB velocity was the highest it’s ever been so I don’t know where you’re getting the decline in velocity from and he started 30 games as recently as 2009. Last year he got hurt swinging a bat, which is a pretty fluke situation if you ask me. Yeah he did struggle for the Red Sox 2 years ago but that was pitching in the Al East, so things maybe different pitching majority of your starts in the Central and in a bigger ballpark.
Don’t forget the Royals, their offense should suck plenty. Besides, which AL teams honestly have great offenses?
Rangers, Yanks, Redsox, Twins, maybe Whitesox. I just don’t believe Penny will be unable to handle the difficulty level.
Francis, maybe. But Young? Young’s career has looked tolerable because he throws an 86 mph fastball with all kinds of riding action at the top of the zone. In Petco, that means flyballs and some strikeouts. In any other park, especially in the AL, he’d get hammered by homers. And he’s a bigger injury question than Penny.
I could see arguing Francis, and I think reasonable minds could differ on that. But Chris Young isn’t a good bet for anything other than DL time.
Also, Penny is pretty much the same guy he always was. He’s always had a fastball and tolerable command of it but lacked secondary, strikeout pitches. So he’s been a slight groundball pitcher who you’d expect to get more punchouts than he actually does. Dave Duncan had him throwing a splitter to get even more grounders last season, but other than that, he’s pretty much what he’s always been.
I believe the complete opposite: Very good move by the Tigers, who I believe usually make bad ones, at least as it relates to free agency (they’re very good with trades). I see very little in the way of risk and alot of potential reward in this signing. Penny could bounce back and be a very cheap mid-rotation guy that is desparately needed. Or he can suck again and make a quarter of the money that they will pay Carlos Guillen for similar results.
I agree with this. Relative to their early off-season signings of Benoit and Martinez, this signing is completely viable. It’s not as if they’re taking a huge risk with the $3.
They are usually great with free agents.. It is extending their own players that gets them into major trouble… Willis, Robertson, Bonderman, and Gullien’s contracts were all extensions…
Guillen’s first extension was incredible. His second one, not so much.
Penny is an injury risk to be sure but I’m not seeing a decline in velocity:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=535&position=P&pitch=FA
Perhaps you are confused because he threw his fastball so much less last year and instead relied heavily on the much slower splitter?
“Usually make good ones.”
Like the extensions given to Willis, Robertson and Bonderman?
Or the constant counting on Carlos Guillen to be healthy for a full season?
The Robertson and Willis extensions were bad but I don’t think you can fault them for extending Bonderman. At the time he was a 24 year old coming off a 6.1 WAR season(and just helped lead them to a World Series) and a 3.5 season before that. He looked like on of the top young pitchers in baseball at that point. I don’t think anybody expected him to fall apart almost instantly after he signed the contract.
I suspect that, as a Beantowner, you’re putting too much stock in Penny’s rough time in Boston in ’09. However, if you look deeper at his numbers that year (both in Boston and in SF), you’ll see that his FIP in Boston was not too different than his FIP in SF. It seems that his .336 BABIP while pitching for Boston and .211 BABIP while pitching for SF that year made it seem as though Penny is not cut out for pitching in the AL, when luck or randomness and small sample size are the more likely reasons for his ERA differences in the two cities.
Crossing my fingers for him to be Pavano 2.0.
Healthy, he’s a lot better than Pavano 2.0.
Jacob Turner should also be in the mix given the Tigers propensity to rush pitching prospects.
His bad year was a FIP of 4.49 in the AL East? What’s not to like. He should be part of the back end of the rotation and help get them to the playoffs. 15 starts would be great. If they use Coke against teams that are loaded with lefties, and Gallaraga when his head is screwed on straight, they may have something. But come playoff time, they will need Oliver or Turner to step in and dominate in the fourth spot. Penny against KC and Cleveland in April and May means another win. Penny against Texas or New York in October is a problem.
I’m pretty sure a rookie with control problems (Oliver) or a 19-year-old who has yet to pitch above A-ball would be a bigger problem against Texas or New York. The Tigers also need to play to their full potential to even reach the playoffs. Minnesota and Chicago both have better offenses, and Chicago definitely has a better pitching staff; Minnesota might, too.
“Galarraga, perfect game aside . . .” That was a NEAR perfect game not a perfecto. Good pick up for Detroit. They should be able to hold off the Royals for third place in the ALC.
Wrong.. It WAS a perfect game… even our President said so…
What’s your point?
Will Charles Furbush be in the mix this year? Last year he put up some pretty good numbers.
I doubt Furbush is anything beyond a camp cut. He got BLASTED in AAA after aggression promotion last year.
Anyone else feel like this team could become major Red Sox fodder?
All of the teams are pretty equally flawed in the Central. There’s a lot of parity in the division — it’s one to watch this year.