To What End Offseason Coverage?
On account of you’re reading these words, you’re almost definitely aware that the World Series begins on Wednesday. What you might not have admitted to yourself yet, reader, is that, when the World Series is over — in a week-and-a-half or so — there will be no more baseball games to watch.
If this is the first you’re hearing of these developments, allow me to offer my condolences. It can come rather suddenly, this post-postseason, and is a bit like losing a limb. Except less painful, of course. And there’s no blood. And it’ll come back — the baseball season, that is — in like five months.
So, okay, it’s not like losing a limb. Not at all, really.
The thing that ought to be noted, too — before one plunges oneself into darkest despair — is that the offseason is actually kinda great. Just as the baseballing enthusiast has acquainted himself with — and maybe become tired of — each team’s roster, with the “identity,” as it were, of the season, the whole thing ends and is renewed, creating a thousand new things to be learned.
The question is — both for readers and writers of this site — is how best to “cover” the offseason. My colleagues here, as you’ll know, are pretty much excllent with regard to trade and free-agent analyses. Also, Dave Cameron presents his flawless organizational rankings, with which, as you’ll know, the entire readership agrees uniformly.
In any case, neither of those things are exactly what you’d call this author’s “area of expertise.”
And yet, reader, I feel like we’ve developed a relationship this season — with the One Night Onlys, I mean — maybe even (metaphorically speaking, of course) shared a bottle of Malbec together and done some inapporpriate things on a faux-bearskin rug.
Even if you don’t feel the same way I do, I am, at the very least, a dude with (a) the internet, (b) free time, and (c) like six or seven stock jokes that I’m prepared to make over and over again with only the very slightest variation.
So here’s the thing: there’s almost definitely a way to cover the offseason both intelligently and hilariously. I don’t know that I, personally, have come across what I’d regard as “perfect” coverage of the Hot Stove League.
But, look: if FanGraphs is dedicated to any one thing — besides preventing an entire generation of young men from reproducing, I mean — it’s dedicated to trying different things and seeing what works. That’s what I, personally, have attempted with the One Night Onlys series — that is, tried to see what a game preview could be. It’s been an incredibly satisfying experience — especially to share that with readers — and now I want to experiment with an offseason format.
So what matters in the offseason, to an “offseason notes”-type column? I don’t know — not entirely, at least. Below, you’ll find some sections that could appear in such a column, but I’m not married to any of them, really.
Mostly, I’m curious as to what the readership has to say about offseason coverage, what it ought to look like. Will I listen to every last suggestion? Absolutely not. But let’s start the conversation and see what happens.
So, like I say, here are some sections that might appear in an offseason-type column:
Fall- and Winter-League Notes
In which the author gets all intimate with some box scores.
Notable Projections/Projection(s) of the Day
In which the author looks into the future.
Rumors
In which the author copy-and-pastes notes from actual, legitimate news sources, and couples it with whimsical statements.
Transactions
In which the author forgoes actual analysis in favor of casual and offhand remarks.
Unsolicited Commentary
In which the author attempts to make order out of chaos — against the reader’s will.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Ironically, I vote for unsolicited commentary. 🙂 Which is rather paradoxical, but there you go.
Beyond that, I’d say projections would be good. I already tend to go to MLB Trade Rumors for my rumor mill stuff, and I feel that does a good job of coverage. I’m not sure if we need too many of such aggregators, unless this one somehow is able to apply statistics to rumors.
Oh, additionally, it would be nice to have discussions/votes/polls about what kinds of analysis we’d like to see. There’s a lot analysis that I’d like to see, can think up the design for, but simply do not have the time on hand or the data on hand to do. With that said, if there were a way for the little people like us who lack for free time to request and vote on different issues to formulate and analyze, that would be pretty useful.
Alternatively, for readers/writers with some free time- I’d be quite interested in seeing projection competitions. Maybe have some competitions on who can best project performance of: A. A single player, B. A team, and C. The league as a whole (which we already tend to have, with systems like CHONE, etc).
I personally would find it quite interesting to see what approaches people apply if they’re trying to get the best estimate of one single player, rather than a whole league of players. It might be informative.
Yeah, it’s pretty in depth …
[1] Compare WARs. See which is bigger.
[2] Divide yearly salary by 4.5 and compare it to WAR.
It’s pretty riviting stuff. *wink*
Those things have taken on a life of their own … and it’s been good for the community … for the most part. They start up a lot of discussion, which is usually productive. The whole #6Org has become it’s own entity.
I feel that DC is compared to rank Sea as #6 once again. I don’t think there’s any other move.
Oh yeah, for the offseason, I’d prefer to see projections.
I would also like to see examples of teams that should play a prospect at the MNL level rather than re-sign a player or acquire a free agent.
MLB level that is.
To me, that is the most interesting aspect for a good number of clubs … the players that are able to produce a comparable WAR for a much lower cost.
Maybe an All-Joy update/2.0
A few thoughts:
-Fall & Winter Leagues: No need to focus on box scores, sample sizes are too small. But if there are meaningful story lines or emerging talents, topical articles are welcome
-Projections: Team level projections are sort of silly at this point. It’s all rumination built on speculation. It can be fun, but it’s pretty pointless and tends to only be fun for fans of the team(s) involved. Player level projections are interesting and welcome.
– Rumors: Leave that to mlbtraderumors. Do what’s in your wheelhouse.
– Transactions: Yes please. Commentary on events that have actually happened is quite welcome. Was it a good deal? What are the organizational implications?
– Unsolicited Commentary: Yes please. Just be smart. Provide random insights that cannot be found elsewhere.
I would caution against random musings and whimsy. In the context of a more substantial article, great. Joe Posnanski and Bill Simmons both do this well. But for the shorter hits, keep it on Twitter. Maybe you even put a twitter-like micro blog for stream of consciousness thoughts and reactions so that they don’t water down the blog. I know that can be the more fun stuff to write, but as a consumer of information, I don’t come to fangraphs for that and if it becomes difficult or annoying to sort the wheat from the chaff, I’m likely to turn my attention elsewhere.
I’m a fan of the statistics-based prognostication that this site is known for. As with B N, I check MLB Trade Rumors for the copy/paste trade clearinghouse. Some notes on Fall/Winter leagues with info how how hitters and pitchers are faring compared to their career numbers would be appreciated though perhaps irrelevant.
Or perhaps an Organizational Ranking of teams based only on the criterion of handsomeness? I would think the Phillies have a good chance at #1 with Utley AND Hamels.
Yeah, but The Dude.. err… Werth really hurts if they re-sign him.
I just want to read Carson being Carson.
Anything! As a baseball junkie I just want some top-notch baseball articles to read
Unsolicited Commentary please! Its your big, beautiful thing. And if All Joy updates fall under that, fantastic. If not, more all joy please!
Put me down for more winter league coverage, too. Those sample sizes are small, but the work guys are getting in the winter leagues has to have some kind of effect on what we can expect out of them come April. Liriano’s winter league success last year had some folks predicting a breakout season, and they turned out to be right. Some of that analysis may be more in the realm of a scouting blog rather than a stats blog (heresy, I know)- we read a lot of reports like “Player X is coming off a down year, but he’s opened up his stance and isn’t hitting so many weak ground balls to the left side.” But I think a site like Fangraphs could do some interesting work, too.
To be honest, I don’t care much whether winter league numbers are useful or not. It’d just be refreshing to have some talk about actual games mixed in with the constant “How much should Arthur Rhodes make?” or “Maybe this team should sign Craig Counsell.”
How about a daily Colby Lewis update?
Sort of like Twitter but, you know, more stalker-ish.
– a math/statistics primer – what makes sample sizes relevant, linear weights, regressions, projections, fitting data to curves, break even points, etc. this is not for everyone, but with good and relevant baseball examples it could be interesting and informative. maybe cover some game theory situations too.
– crowdsourcing – i like to think fangraphs has a fairly knowledgable readership and writing staff. a big group of smart baseball fans with some free time could be a dangerous thing – why not speculate on a variety of stuff. beyond contracts and the fan projections. some quick ideas are:
—some kind of umpire (correct calls percentages, consistency) metric
—a manager metric (portions of wpa for high leverage plays, lineup optimization, pythag/runs created vs. actual records)
—ways to improve fielding, catching, and/or baserunning stats
– potential breakout stars (or the opposite) and why they might/should breakout next year (playing time, babip regression, strong finishes, winter ball play, i dunno)
-potential market inefficiencies – personally i am thinking of guys who pound the strikezone especially with the recent trending towards walks/obp and fielding.
i am also on board for some winter league coverage. i wouldn’t mind hearing on japanese league results as well.
I agree with crowdsourcing, but I think it would be even more useful to have a form of uniquely identified crowdsourcing. That way we could see if there are regularities between which part of the crowd tends to be closer to the ultimate results versus others, then ask them what criteria & information sources they tend to use.
Unsolicited commentary! Oh, joy!
Projections are great, but I think the community could benefit most from an in-depth analysis of pretentious signs. For instance:
* Carson sees a black falcon while pedaling to work; the Astros will sign a reliever.
* Carson heats a bowl of alphabet soup and the letters spell KOSOFU; the Cubs will trade Kosoke Fukudome, and in return receive the last 3 years back.
* Carson awakes one morning to find a tattoo of Henry Winkler on his left bicep; therefore, Brian Wilson gets a mohawk.
This is the kind of analysis of which Fangraphs needs more.
What’s a pretentious sign? A picture of Carson lighting a gold plated cigar with a lighter that makes a flame in the shape of the Mona Lisa?
/pedant out
Oh my! I meant to write “portentous.” I think pretentious works too though. Maybe it works better?
How about a section where commenters post only caustic and sadistic posts?
Hold on, isn’t that mostly what happens now?
I was not being sarcastic. I deliberately read Cistulli because I love to laugh. When he throws real information in there, I consider it a bonus — completely unnecessary for my reading delight. I genuinely would enjoy a series on portents and omens.
I just meant in the general. My post being more indicative then yours in this case…
I’d enjoy to see some analysis on Japanese ball.
Unsolicited commentary, filled with more digression and tangents than Tristram Shandy.
I’ll read anything you write Carson, even if it’s only tangentially related to baseball.
This is probably sacrilegious, but have you ever considered incorporating poetry into your articles / podcasts? I feel like I could really use some good slam poetry about spreadsheets and Colby Lewis.
I want the kind of in-depth, hardcore investigative reporting only you can provide Cistulli. I propose you spend a week with a player, manager, or executive and discover all that can be learned about that person while sitting in the tree across the street from their homes. What brand of toothpaste do they use? Is their daughter sneaking out of the house at night? Do they use the stadium groundspeople to mow their lawns? We need to know these things!
Eh… whatever you do, be sure to take some time off. It’s easy for writing to feel like a chore in the offseason.
In keeping with your schtick… I’d do historical One Night Onlies with NERD scores . One option would be to choose random dates, say, June 12, 1984. Then you could bone up on the pitchers and lineups and write it up. It might be hard, since you haven’t seen most of those guys pitch, but it’s the offseason. You’ll have nuthin’ but time to poke through retrosheet and bbref and Youtube Tippy Martinez highlights.
If research / history’s not your thing, you could also do just one season that occurred within your lifetime. Since the offseason is approximately as long as the season, you could start with Opening Day 1995 or 2000 or 2005 and work your way through the year. That might sound stupid, but stirring up old names and in-season story lines can be really illuminating. And it could give a nice platform for whatever that thing is you do when you write. I even came up with a title: Due to Overwhelming Demand, Second Night Added!
This is actually a really neat idea. Seconded…
If not exactly this, then, yes, something along these lines would be smart — i.e. looking at previous seasons with an eye towards numbers/aesethics.
Smart stuff. Especially just for Some Guy.
Things I’d like to see: some sort of injury report about how rehabbing players are progressing, theoreticals on what if a pitcher had a different arsenal of pitchers (ex: what if King Felix threw a knuckleball, how awesome would he be then?), why don’t more pitchers throw a screwball or why a pitch (think cutter) becomes the “in” thing to throw, what cities players like and why they would choose to go there, something about what makes each stadium unique for those of us who can only visit a few, which player not named Colby Lewis would Carson like to befriend most, who would win a mascot battle-royal …
I guess what I was looking for is unsolicited commentary?
carson, i would also like to see your thoughts on generating some sort of NERD / gamescore hybrid metric to judge a pitcher’s performance.
Carson!
Let’s get us a “Bryce Harper Watch” while he plays in the Arizona Fall League (he is playing there, right?).
Also, I’d love to see you do your own version of a “Season in Review: X Team”.
Also, to add on to my previous comment, and to build on another comment, I say we (i.e. you) expand NERD scores to historical teams, in an effort to see which teams were in fact the most “interesting” to watch. It would be interesting to compare, say, the Cleveland Spiders to the 2010 Mariners (yuck).