Top 20 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Baltimore Orioles. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

50 FV Prospects

Hays had a spectacular 2017 breakout campaign, hitting 32 homers and 32 doubles between High- and Double-A, prompting Baltimore to give him a look in the majors in September. His hands are electric and they allow Hays to turn on just about everything — which is what he tries to do and which is what prompted big-league pitchers to work him down and away last year. It may take an adjustment for Hays to max out his offensive potential, as his overly aggressive approach may be exploited in the majors. That said, he has bat speed and power, and should play an above-average right field fairly soon.

Sisco didn’t start catching until his senior year of high school and has quelled long-standing doubts about his ability to stay there while slowly working toward an everyday big-league catching role. He’s become a pretty good receiver and ball-blocker, and he hits enough that you’re willing to overlook his remaining defensive shortcoming: arm strength. Sisco has excellent feel for contact, controls the strike zone, can bunt against the shift, and has more raw power than his career numbers indicate, especially now that he’s better incorporated his lower half into his swing. He has the bat control to make the new approach work. He projects as an average, everyday big leaguer with a chance for a bit more if the in-game power he’s flashed becomes consistent.

45 FV Prospects

Harvey’s career was derailed by multiple injuries. Chronic elbow soreness led to Tommy John in 2016 that, coupled with a shin fracture and hernia surgery, has limited him to just about 30 pro innings since the end of the 2014 season. He was finally back midway through 2017 with a noticeably stronger frame and was sitting 93-96 with a plus curveball. Harvey, who is pitching on a fairly conservative throwing schedule at Double-A, is an obvious injury risk and has lost season’s worth of changeup and command development because of injury. There’s a strong chance he’s a reliever, at least initially, but he has the stuff to be a really good one, especially if his fastball ticks up out of the bullpen.

Lefties who touch 97 and flash a plus curveball are typically off the board in the top 15 picks. Makeup issues pushed Hall, who would eventually sign for an overslot $3 million, toward the back of the first round. Though Hall struggled to throw strikes after signing, he projects to have a pretty nasty three-pitch mix and average command. His fastball lacks projection because Hall has a 6-foot frame, but it’s already hard. He projects as an above-average big-league starter and comes with the standard applicable risk associated with teenage arms.

Scott’s stuff is as good as any relief-only prospect’s in baseball. He has an upper-90s fastball, a hard, upper-80s slider that spins at a supernatural rate for a breaking pitch that hard, and also exhibited a good changeup — seemingly out of thin air — during last year’s Fall League. Scott’s long, stiff arm action is difficult to repeat. He’s a passable big-league athlete but not so dynamic that he can clearly throw consistent strikes with this delivery, and this is reinforced by what he’s done statistically.

He has a chance to be a very special late-inning reliever if he develops better command. At 23, there’s plenty of time for Scott to find a way to make it work, even if it doesn’t happen until his late 20s — the way it looks like Tayron Guerrero might have — because guys with this kind of arm strength get chances chances until that arm strength disappears.

In defiance of his draft position, Mullins has reached Double-A in his second full season. He’s hitting for power, making occasional highlight-reel catches in center field, and stealing bases. The tapestry of industry opinions is still checkered by fourt- outfield projections or, more frequently now, platoon projections based on Mullins’ issues against lefties. But he’s trending up, has tools and athleticism, and has performed, on paper, every year.

Mountcastle can hit. He has above-average bat speed and barrel control as well as natural, pull-side loft that should enable him to hit for some power, too. There are two very concerning aspects of Mountcastle’s profile, however. First, he’s one of the least selective hitters in the minors and owner of a 4.2% career walk rate. Second, he’s unlikely to stick at third due to issues with throwing efficacy. His raw arm strength is fine when Mountcastle can gather himself and make a routine throw. When he has to make them from odd platforms, though, he struggles.

The list of left fielders (where we have Mountcastle projected) with walk rates as low as Mountcastle’s career mark is short. Since 2015, Gerardo Parra matches Mountcastle’s 4.2% and Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, Eddie Rosario, and Yasmany Tomas are all under 5%. The players on that list have been pretty volatile performers — save for Marte, who’s tooled up in many other ways. We buy Mountcastle’s bat, but there are strong signals that his value is going to be limited by other things.

40 FV Prospects

Sedlock was drafted as a raw, big-framed college power pitcher who had a starter’s repertoire but poor command. He was up to 97 at times at Illinois and had two quality breaking balls, but his delivery was not ideally clean. Last year, Sedlock’s delivery and fastball backed up and his velocity was mostly down in the 88-91 range, albeit with sink. If his velocity bounces back, then he has a pretty nasty four-pitch mix and it matters less how his command develops — he’d at least be a pretty interesting multi-inning weapon. If the mechanical regression that coincided with the drop in velocity is here to stay, however, then he’s already too high on this list.

Dietz was up to 96 at Logan and flashed a 55 slider. He was also an innings-eating force and finished eight of his 13 starts as a freshman. His stuff was down after he signed but was back up in 2017, when Dietz was touching 98 with the fastball and sitting 92-94. While the slider is still just a 50, his changeup is developing. The secondary stuff and command are just okay, and unless something develops beyond expectation, the ceiling here is modest, but Dietz is progressing nicely as a No. 4/5 starter.

Lowther is a low-slot lefty with vexing funk, and he somehow blew 88-91 past college hitters. There are all sorts of other things going on that enable this. He gets down the mound well, his delivery has an odd cadence, his arm action is noisy, etc. Lowther seems to be in control of all these moving parts and throws a sufficient volume of strikes. He also has a 55 curveball and knows how to work it to righties so he doesn’t have to rely as much on a fringe changeup. Not a lot of big-league starters look like this, but once you buy into the fastball playing up above what the radar gun says, it’s easy to see a quality big-league arm of some kind.

Hanifee is a size/athleticism projection arm who was a multi-sport athlete in high school. He missed what would have been his first pro summer with a back injury, so he’s a little behind even for a multi-sport high schooler, but he’s already sitting 92-93 with sink, showing good plane, and flashing an average slider. He’s a high-variance arm but the right tail of his potential outcomes is more impactful than most of the other players in the system.

The O’s stashed Santander on the DL (injuries have been a career theme for Santander) after taking him in the 2016 Rule 5 draft, then sent him to the Fall League to pick up at-bats. He’s had some experience at first base but has mostly played the corner-outfield spots and has tools commensurate with fringe regularity there. He profiles as a low-end regular or luxury bench bat, and there’s a chance he develops late after losing so many reps to injury earlier in his pro career. He could become a solid everyday guy.

Lee sits 92-95 and touches 98. It plays down due to poor extension, but his two viable secondaries make it likely that he’s a solid lefty bullpen option.

Gonzalez had a velo spike in 2017 and now sits 92-95, touching 96, with a delivery that seems to make hitters uncomfortable. His slider benefits from this deceptive juju, as well, and he’ll show you a good changeup now and then. On the surface, Gonzalez appears to be a good lefty-specialist prospect, but his changeup gives him the potential for more than that.

Sparks was billed as a raw high-school athlete on draft day but showed impressive bat control after he signed. He has a chance to be a good defensive center fielder and hit — and a lesser chance to add impact power to his somewhat projectable frame as he ages. He’s one of the toolsier prospects in this system and might have the opportunity to blow up once he starts getting stronger.

Stewart’s 2017 was a promising bounce back from a disastrous 2016 season, after which many wrote him off. He’s not the kind of athlete nor runner his stolen-base totals suggest, but Stewart has regained some of the twitch and explosiveness that made him an enticing, bat-first draft prospect. He projects as a low-end regular in left field or at DH.

Fenter signed for $1 mil as a seventh-round pick in 2015, and his career has been slow to get going as Tommy John wiped out his entire 2016 season and limited his ability to work in 2017. When Fenter began pitching in games late last June, his sinking fastball and curveball were both terrific, so the foundations for his amateur prospectdom remains intact. Fenter was old for his graduating class. He is already 22 and entered the year with just 50 pro innings to his name. He’s behind but has stuff that profiles in some kind of bullpen role should his growth as a starter stall out.

Baumann was a rotation stalwart all three years at Jacksonville. He sits 92-94, will touch 96, and his slider has the best chance at maturing into something that will miss big-league bats. Baumann’s plunging, high-three-quarters delivery, fringe command, and lack of repertoire depth could relegate him to relief. If there’s better command and a better third pitch than we have projected at peak, Baumann could be a No. 4 starter.

Akin’s changeup remains nasty, but his velocity was down last year, remains down this spring, and his command has regressed, too. He has a long, tough-to-repeat arm action that produces velocity in the 88-91 mph range, up to 94; his signature change; and a fringey slider. He projected as a No. 4/5 starter coming out of college and is looking more like a fastball/changeup reliever.

Reyes is a monstrous, power-hitting lottery ticket. After playing well as an 18-year-old in Low-A back in 2015, Reyes’s progress has slowed due to multiple hand injuries, and he’s back in the Carolina League for a third consecutive year. He likely projects to first base due to his size, but his raw power is sufficient for first if he can tap into it.

Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.Pitchabiity Depth Arms
Alex Wells, LHP
Yefry Ramirez, RHP
Nestor Cortes, LHP

Wells walks a guy just once every 10 innings and has a 55 breaking ball. There are questions about his fastball playing in the big leagues. Ramirez was acquired for international bonus space from the Yankees (who picked him in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft the year before) and could be a fifth or sixth starter. He sits 90-93, plus has an average slider that he commands well and an above-average changeup. Cortes is a soft-tossing lefty with a low slot and loopy breaking ball.

Guys with Good Breaking Balls
Pedro Araujo, RHP
Cristian Alvarado, RHP
Brian Gonzalez, LHP

Araujo was one of the team’s three Rule 5 picks and sits 90-94 with a plus slider. Alvarado is 90-92 with a plus curveball. He’s 23 and pitching in A-ball. Gonzalez has a 55 curveball and fringe everything else, but he’s lefty, so that might get him there.

Guys Who Throw Hard
Ofelky Peralta, RHP
David Hess, RHP
Jimmy Yacabonis, RHP

Peralta touches 98, but his heater plays down due to poor extension. Hess has a heavy fastball at 92-95, up to 97. His secondaries are fringey. St. Joe’s alum Jimmy Yacabonis has been 95-plus in the past but was more often 92-94 this spring.

Fringe Bats
Drew Dosch, 3B
Austin Wynns, C
Ademar Rifaela, OF
Mike Yastrzemski, OF
Alex Murphy, 1B

Dosch’s ability to lift the ball has improved over time. He has average offensive tools and is fine at third. Wynns catches and has a great approach, so he’s probably going to kick around on a 40-man for a long time. Rifaela is a stocky corner outfielder who has some pop and has performed up through High-A (.280/.360/.500), but there are questions about his bat control and he has been old relative to his levels. Yastrzemski has underrated power and above-average ball/strike recognition. Alex Murphy has big power and used to catch; now he plays first, though, creating a much higher offensive bar for him to clear.

Cistulli’s Guy
Selected by Carson Cistulli from any player who received less than a 40 FV.
Austin Wynns, C
Wynns’ credentials as a fringe prospect are beyond reproach. Not only was he selected in the 10th round of the 2013 draft following his senior year at Fresno State, but he entered 2018 — his age-27 season — having recorded just 18 plate appearances above Double-A. Purely by those indicators, this is a player unlikely to succeed in, or even reach, the majors.

Wynns is still around, though, having just authored the best offensive season of his professional career by several measures. The contact skills appear to be better than average, and the game power — over the last couple years, at least — has settled into something just better than negligible. He has a reputation as a defensive catcher — a sentiment the available fielding metrics don’t appear to flatly contradict. It’s conceivable that he could soon be working as the right-handed complement to Chance Sisco at the major-league level.

System Overview
At a time when teams are attempting to accommodate heavy influxes of international talent by fielding multiple teams in the DSL, GCL, and/or AZL, the Orioles continue to ignore the market entirely. Baltimore has traded their international bonus slots for Ramirez (above), Paul Fry, Alex Katz, Damien Magnifico, Milton Ramos, Jason Wheeler, Matt Wotherspoon, and others. General Manager Dan Duquette has said publicly that the deals are to designed bolster the club immediately instead of waiting several years for international prospects to mature, but none of those players have made an impact on the big club and most of them aren’t even with the team anymore. Baltimore also has one of the smaller scouting staffs in baseball. There’s a funding issue here, which isn’t good when you’re toiling in the AL East.

Forthcoming changes to this list will include the 11th and 37th overall picks in June’s draft and whomever Manny Machado fetches during the summer.