Top 22 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Toronto Blue Jays. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All the numbered prospects here also appear on THE BOARD, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. Click here to visit THE BOARD.

65 FV Prospects

Guerrero was identified as an elite talent years before the Jays signed him at age 16, exhibiting an advanced feel for hitting and raw power like his father. Unlike the elder Guerrero, Vlad Jr. has generally developed earlier — already looking too big for third base as a teenager and polishing his tools at a very young stage. Whether Vlad Jr. settles as a fringey third baseman or a first basemen/designated hitter is up for debate, but his easy plus hit and power tools (with ceiling for more) are not and will make his ascent to the big leagues a quick one.

60 FV Prospects

Bichette was a well-known prospect in high school due to his bloodlines (father Dante and older brother Dante Jr., who was a first-round pick by the Yankees in 2011), his big tools (plus raw power), and his loud, max-effort swing. Many teams didn’t take him seriously as a top-two-round prospect, partly souring after his brother busted with a similar swing, but Bo has rare bat and body control along with good enough pitch selection to make his approach work, something his older brother did not.

Like Guerrero, Bichette doesn’t lift or pull the ball as much as you’d think given his swing, so there’s more game power to tease out of his approach, and we think he’ll trade some contact to do that. Bichette is playing shortstop now but likely will not at higher levels, with second base the most likely fit. In either case, he has the tools to play any corner position, and his bat profiles anywhere.

55 FV Prospects

Alford was a buzzy prospect in high school, coveted for his rare power/speed combo and overall athleticism. He became more intriguing due to his interest in a college football career — one which he ultimately pursued at Ole Miss and Southern Miss. The Blue Jays signed him out of high school to own his rights if football didn’t work out and were happy when he hit the ground running in 2015 as a full-time baseball player at age 20. He arrived at full-season ball with a surprising amount of polish — especially in terms of pitch selection — for a kid who had never fully committed himself to baseball before.

The tools are still flashy, and he profiles as a well-rounded everyday center fielder who likely gets an extended big league look at some point in 2018. The contact will probably be a bit below average at the big-league level, but the pitch selection should allow him to get to most of his power, and the speed will help on defense and the basepaths. He broke his hamate bone in 2017 and should be getting fully past that in 2018, with power the last element to come back. He visited the disabled list again recently with a hamstring strain but played his first game with Buffalo at the end of last week.

50 FV Prospects

Scouts’ opinions were all over the map during the first few years of Jansen’s career, with some barely regarding him as a prospect, but those have narrowed into the 45 to 55 FV range now. We’re buying that Jansen’s 2017, which included more walks than strikeouts across three levels of the minors, is a sign of real improvement — perhaps due to the new prescription frames he got before the season. He’s a fringe receiver with an above-average arm, which is fine if there’s real offensive contributions, and Jansen is difficult to strike out with plenty of on-base skills. He’s a near-ready everyday catcher, even if the pedigree, path, and skillset aren’t usual.

Pearson came almost out of nowhere at a low-profile Florida junior college, going from unknown to first-round pick in less than a year, fueled by a dazzling pre-draft bullpen for scouts during whic he sat in the high-90s and hit 100 mph. At his best, Pearson looks like a front-of-the-rotation monster, with a sturdy frame, long stride, powerful delivery, and triple-digit heat — all complemented by a slider and changeup that have flashed 60 at their best.

On the other hand, there’s risk with hard throwers — especially those with new velocity — and Pearson has had control issues ever since his velocity spiked. He’s trending in the right direction, though, with his best appearances coming in May and June just before the draft, followed by strong pro debut. Pearson has possibly the widest variance of potential outcomes of any player on the top 100. He tweaked his back late in spring training and has yet to join an affiliate. He’ll likely head to High-A Dunedin in short order, an aggressive assignment.

45 FV Prospects

Borucki came from a modest beginning to his pro career, signing for mid-six-figures out of high school in 2012 and getting Tommy John surgery soon thereafter. He’s had nagging injuries most of his career, but 2016 and 2017 were mostly healthy and he performed well, finishing 2017 in Triple-A. Borucki works 90-95 and touches 97 mph with a sinker that, in concert with his 6-foot-4 frame, allows him to generate good plane down in the zone. He backs up his above-average heater with a plus changeup that’s been his go-to offering for years, especially when his fastball command wanders at times. Borucki’s slider flashes average but needs to be more consistent in 2018 to give him a weapon against lefties.

Zeuch’s most notable trait is his size (6-foot-7, 225 pounds), and he uses that to create plane and extension, allowing his 90-93 mph sinker with plus life to play as a plus pitch overall. His slider and changeup are both below average, so his future may be in relief, but his command projects for average and his curveball is above average, so there’s enough here to play in a couple of different roles depending on how he develops. He still uses his slider and curveball about the same amount, possibly trying to force the traditional sinker/slider usage, so there could be more to gain statistically by leaning more heavily on the superior pitch.

Warmoth was the fourth-best player on his high-school team as a senior, with Ole Miss signee 2B Tate Blackman, Miami signee CF Carl Chester, and Vanderbilt commit underclassman SS Harrison Ray all on a loaded Lake Brantley HS squad. Warmoth’s tools haven’t changed a ton since then, but he passed his teammates by a wide margin, going in the first round last summer while the other three all became later-round types.

He matured some physically and developed a little more power, which helped him improve a bit a shortstop and at the plate, with his arm grade being the biggest difference from his high-school days. Some clubs saw him as a utility type in the draft, while others saw a fundamentally sound low-end regular who got the most out of his tools and would move quickly. He’s a high-probability big leaguer either way who opened 2018 in High-A.

40 FV Prospects

Pardinho jumped on the national prospect scene when he hit 95 mph as a 15-year-old at a televised international tournament. Fans then learned what scouts already knew: the Brazilian right-hander was one of the top arms in his July 2 class. He pitched in front of lots of heat in a January showcase for scouts in Florida, shortening the trip for many who didn’t want to head to South America. He sat 90-93 mph for a couple innings then, with an above-average two-plane breaking ball and a changeup that flashed average.

At a nearly maxed-out 5-foot-10, he isn’t very projectable, but he’s still young enough that there could be more velocity and he’s already been into the mid-90s. Pardinho isn’t just a thrower, showing the elements for command and feel for his craft, along with a Japanese-inspired delivery — a result of the Japanese cultural/baseball influence in Brazil, one which is also part of Pardinho’s own heritage.

McGuire was a mid-first-rounder in 2013 out of a Washington high school who, while failing to develop as expected, has nevertheless continued on a track to the majors. He’s another data point in support of the argument that catchers all develop differently, and often non-linearly. Traded from Pittsburgh in an odd semi-salary-dump trade in 2016, McGuire has slowly improved his game power, lifting his launch angle and making harder contact to the point now where it won’t hold back the other parts of his game. He projects as a plus defender with plenty of arm and above-average contact skills and has a chance to be a low-end regular in the offensive wasteland that is the catcher position.

Reid-Foley had first-round buzz in 2014 as a prep power arm who flashed two plus pitches, but his below-average command and inverted arm action scared some teams. With the usual prep pitcher factors also adding risk to his profile, he eventually slid to the second round. He’s largely still the same pitcher now that he was then, with some reliever risk due to command and arm action but upside as a starter or late-inning option due to his above-average to plus sinker/curveball combo. We think he may land in the multi-inning power-reliever bucket that’s more valued now than before, but there’s obviously a decent chance he takes a step forward and starts or one backward and is a one-inning-type reliever.

Pannone was acquired with Samad Taylor from the Indians for side-arm reliever Joe Smith at the deadline last year by a Blue Jays exec group that largely came from Cleveland and knows Pannone well. He’s a deceptive lefty who sits 89-91 and touches 93 mph but uses the heater heavily and gets lots of swings and misses due to deception and an understanding of how best to use the pitch. Pannone is a typical lefty in some ways, with an advanced feel to pitch, three average-or-better offerings, and a curveball to which he adds and subtracts to get the desired effect, with scouts regarding the last of those as an above-average pitch. He was suspended 80 games in March for a performance-enhancer, but may get a big-league look at the end of the year if the need arises.

Gurriel was followed closely his whole career, his older brother Yulieski having been regarded as the best Cuban prospect for nearly a decade and Lourdes showing precocious tools along the same lines for the Cuban national team. Lourdes fits more into a utility profile, with an ability to play a passable version of basically every position on the field, likely fitting best long term at third base given his plus arm and solid-not-spectacular range, but his offense may not be enough to support an everyday role.

At this point, his lack of a clear position is a strength, since he can be a valuable utility player who can platoon and fill in anywhere — an especially useful quality in the age of the short bench and long bullpen. Gurriel has above-average raw power and about average contact skills, so there is some offensive upside here with the right sort of development. That said, the Blue Jays’ recent decision to call him up to play a utility role for the big-league club (where he’s helping fill gaps created by injury) suggests they may see him in that role, as well.

Tellez has been a similar player since his prep underclassman days: a big-bodied first baseman with power and patience who needs to thread the needle to become an everyday player. That campaign took a hit in 2017 at Triple-A, as Tellez’s contact and plate discipline were stagnant to regressing while his power dried up — due, in part, to some trouble with the velocity and advanced pitching at the level. There’s enough here to bounce back, and there was some bad BABIP luck as well, but Matt Adams‘ and Dan Vogelbach’s careers are a cautionary tale of what this sort of player is worth, even in the early stages of arbitration.

On the good side, Urena is a big-league-caliber shortstop with smooth actions, a plus arm, and plus bat control from both sides — and one who’s already gotten a cup of coffee at age 21. On the bad side, Urena’s defensive tools play down at times due to sloppy errors and/or mental lapses, his speed is just average, his pitch selection is well below average, and while he lifts the ball, he doesn’t have much game power in his swing and even less when hitting right-handed. You can see why he garnered a high-six-figure bonus in a 2013 July 2nd class that also included Franklin Barreto, why he’s now seen as a success, and why he also has limited trade value as a likely utility guy who doesn’t get the most out of his tools.

At a slight 6-foot-1, Diaz lacks size. Also his changeup and command are below average. Because of that, it’s likely a relief fit. That said, he has a 92-95 mph fastball that he can run up to 97 and knows how to use. He also has a curveball that flashes plus, giving him plenty of stuff to fit in the late innings. Diaz leans on the fastball heavily but has the plane to make it work up in the zone, drawing swings and misses on the pitch. He uses his changeup more than his curve, in an effort to develop the pitch and remain a starter, but his numbers could take a step forward if he moves to relief and largely drops the changeup.

Taylor has some things to like, such as his twitchy frame, plus speed, above-average bat control, and above-average defense at second base. The issues are that he’s small, has limited power, needs to improve his pitch selection, and can’t play shortstop, which limits his utility upside if the offense doesn’t progress. There’s athleticism to dream on and he’s still a teenager, so you can see why Toronto’s execs, familiar with Cleveland’s system, asked for him in the Joe Smith deal last year.

Adams has shown potential both offensively and defensively since high school, but some scouts are still dubious about him, even though they see the upside. He’s big and athletic at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, featuring plus raw power and an above-average arm. He also has a black belt in karate. His receiving has always been just okay, due in part to his size and developing feel for the position, while his offensive game also lacks finesse, with a pull-heavy, power-based approach that will likely lead to below-average contact rates.

Maese was a pop-up arm in his draft spring in a rarely scouted area of El Paso, and he wasn’t well known before that due to his football exploits. He missed time in 2017 with shoulder soreness but is healthy now and should join High-A Dunedin when he heads out ot an affiliate. Maese works 90-94, touching 95 with a heavy sinker and his slider flashes plus, so there’s elements here for a mid-rotation starter, but his changeup is below average and may end up pushing him to a relief role. A healthy campaign and good performance at High-A would have gone a long way to revealing what Maese will turn become. That said, he just underwent season-ending shoulder surgery. His preseason grade will be updated during our next pass at THE BOARD.

Danner has similarties to Riley Adams, whom the Jays picked one round after him. He’s an athletic catcher with tools and potential both ways, but scouts are unsure about how those tools will play. Danner was also known as a top-five-round pitcher in high school and is good enough to give that a shot if catching doesn’t work out. Like Adams, Danner has above-average size for the position to go with above-average raw power and arm strength. There’s also some swing and miss to Danner’s game that will probably always be there, and there’s a ways to go in terms of feel behind the plate. That said, he’s younger with far fewer reps at the position, so scouts are a little more optimistic that Danner could stick at the position.

Jackson is big and has big stuff, sitting 92-95 and touching 96 mph, with a curveball that flashes plus and a usable changeup. His fastball plays down due to very poor extension, and he’s always had the delivery and approach of a reliever, along with the below-average command you’d expect. There’s no wondering what his role may be, like some of the current starters on this list. It’s the stuff of a middle reliever but could play in later innings if the command improves.

Harris was seen as a mid-first-rounder in 2015, but he slid to the end of the round, surprising many, after fading to finish his spring. He’s been largely the same in pro ball, working 90-95 and touching 96 mph with his sinker, fringe slider, above-average curveball, and fringe changeup. His fastball command is below average, holding back the starter package at the moment, and the velocity and curveball would play in relief if it came to that. Ultimately, Harris bears some similarity to Reid-Foley, with an unclear role going forward but less margin for error because of the inferior stuff.

Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.Position Players with Some Defensive Value
Kevin Smith, SS
Jonathan Davis, CF
Leonardo Jimenez, SS
Miguel Hiraldo, 3B
Cavan Biggio, 2B
Gift Ngoepe, SS
Kevin Vicuna, SS
Luis de los Santos, SS

Smith has a big swing, raw power, and a glove that can stick at short but a questionable approach. Davis is an above-average center fielder in the upper levels, but he has a 40 bat with fringe power, so his pitch selection will have to be his offensive separator.  Jimenez was the Jays’ second-biggest July 2 signing behind Pardinho, and the Panamanian has solid-average wheels to go with above-average defense, feel for the game, and a contact-oriented approach. Hiraldo also signed for high six figures in the same class and has some feel to hit and raw power, but will need some swing adjustments and fits on a corner. Ngoepe is a defensive-oriented utility type who more of an up-and-down guy at this point. Biggio has bloodlines you can guess but pitch selection may be his only standout ability.

Position Players with Little Defensive Value
Juan Kelly, 1B
Josh Palacios, RF
Harold Ramirez, LF
Ryan Noda, 1B
McGregory Contreras, RF
Max Pentecost, C/1B
Kacy Clemens, 1B
Yorman Rodriguez, 1B

Kelly is probably first-base only, but he has above-average raw power to which he’s already getting and solid contact skills that approach average. Contreras signed two years ago for $10,000 and is flashing average tools across the board that could fit in a reserve role. Palacios added in-game pop in 2017 but still has some swing-and-miss to his game and probably fits best on a corner. Ramirez has surprising power for his size, but his corner-only profile and below-average pitch selection hold him back. Noda fits best at first, but his patience and power could move quickly.

Likely Relief Fits
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP
Patrick Murphy, RHP
Dany Jimenez, RHP
Kelyn Jose, LHP
Francisco Rios, RHP
Josh Winckowski, RHP
Maximo Castillo, RHP
Jol Concepcion, RHP
Carlos Ramirez, RHP
Elieser Medrano, RHP
Orlando Pascual, RHP

Guerrieri fits in relief in pro ball, but he’ll flash three above-average pitches, headlined by a plus curveball at times; he’s been held back by injuries among other things. The rest of this group also fits best in middle relief, with different sets of strengths and weaknesses, but Jose’s fastball up to 99 mph from the left side and Jimenez’s plus slider are the biggest standouts of the group.

Cistulli’s Guy
Selected by Carson Cistulli from any player who received less than a 40 FV.
Cavan Biggio, 2B
Biggio would have been a contender for the designation of Cistulli’s Guy three weeks ago, too. His combination of plate discipline and plus defensive value — if not shortstop-type defensive value — are the sort that translate well to the majors.

A month of minor-league play reveals the other advantage of Biggio’s skillset — namely that, with the addition of some power, it can transform a future bench profile into something more substantial. Now 58 plate appearances into his Double-A career, Biggio has produced nearly identical walk and strikeout rates to his High-A campaign last year. He’a also produced fewer grounders, though, and — in what is probably a related development — already hit four home runs, leading all Double-A in isolated power. Any retention of that power would change Biggio’s future outlook pretty considerably.

System Overview
The Jays have an above-average system, with two of the top 10 prospects in baseball. They also have four prospects mentioned above who are sons of notable big leaguers, three of which have Hall of Fame (or really close to it) dads and two of whom represent the club’s top two prospects. I still think it’s just a cyclical, coincidental thing, but it’s already an outlier. It is also worth noting that four of those five top prospects could lose prospect eligibility this year, turning the system into mostly just Pearson and a bunch of pretty ordinary prospects.

There will be an incoming draft and July 2 classes, and you get some leeway for a weaker system if you just graduated multiple big-league-regular types, so this isn’t really bad news, just something notable about a currently top-heavy, above-average group that’s largely in the upper levels. It will be worth noting going forward how the Jays’ risk profile in the draft adjusts given this fact and that the big-league team only has three proven above-average long-term pieces in place (Osuna, Sanchez, and Stroman).