Top 27 Prospects: Kansas City Royals
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Kansas City Royals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.
Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Seuly Matias | 20.6 | A+ | RF | 2022 | 45+ |
2 | Brady Singer | 22.7 | A+ | RHP | 2020 | 45+ |
3 | Daniel Lynch | 22.4 | A+ | LHP | 2021 | 45+ |
4 | MJ Melendez | 20.4 | A+ | C | 2022 | 45 |
5 | Nick Pratto | 20.5 | A+ | 1B | 2022 | 45 |
6 | Khalil Lee | 20.8 | AA | RF | 2020 | 45 |
7 | Nicky Lopez | 24.1 | AAA | SS | 2019 | 45 |
8 | Jackson Kowar | 22.5 | A+ | RHP | 2021 | 45 |
9 | Kris Bubic | 21.7 | A | LHP | 2021 | 40+ |
10 | Kyle Isbel | 22.1 | A+ | RF | 2021 | 40+ |
11 | Richard Lovelady | 23.8 | MLB | LHP | 2019 | 40+ |
12 | Meibrys Viloria | 22.2 | MLB | C | 2019 | 40 |
13 | Daniel Tillo | 22.8 | A+ | LHP | 2021 | 40 |
14 | Scott Blewett | 23.0 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
15 | Yefri Del Rosario | 19.6 | A | RHP | 2021 | 40 |
16 | Kelvin Gutierrez | 24.6 | AAA | 3B | 2019 | 40 |
17 | Emmanuel Rivera | 22.8 | AA | 3B | 2021 | 40 |
18 | Foster Griffin | 23.7 | AAA | LHP | 2019 | 40 |
19 | Gerson Garabito | 23.7 | AA | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
20 | Carlos Hernandez | 22.1 | A | RHP | 2022 | 40 |
21 | Yohanse Morel | 18.6 | R | RHP | 2024 | 35+ |
22 | Austin Cox | 22.0 | A | LHP | 2020 | 35+ |
23 | Brewer Hicklen | 23.2 | A+ | CF | 2021 | 35+ |
24 | Omar Florentino | 17.5 | R | SS | 2024 | 35+ |
25 | D.J. Burt | 23.5 | AA | 2B | 2020 | 35+ |
26 | Josh Staumont | 25.3 | AAA | RHP | 2019 | 35+ |
27 | Janser Lara | 22.7 | A | RHP | 2021 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Young Guys Who Might Pop
Rylan Kaufman, LHP
Wilmin Candelario, SS
Jeison Guzman, SS
Maikel Garcia, SS
Raymond Lopez, CF
Anderson Paulino, RHP
Rubendy Jaquez, 3B
Kaufman was a $722,000 JuCo 12th rounder who can really spin a curveball (2750 rpm average in pro ball). He’s still just 19, has a lanky frame, and already bumps 92, 93 on occasion. Candelario is a balletic defensive shortstop who adds little flourishes to just about everything he does. The entire offensive package is below-average right now, but we’ll see what happens with the frame. Speaking of waiting on the frame, Guzman is now 20 and has finally started to fill out in a positive way. He’s going to strike out a lot, but has a chance to rise into the main portion of the list this year. Garcia is a smooth, rangy defender and has a good frame but he’s very weak with the bat right now. Lopez looked intriguing (above average runner, gap pop, feel for center field) before he was seriously injured in 2017, and then he had a bad 2018. He’s a bounce back candidate. Paulino is a strong-bodied 20-year-old who sits 93-97. His upper-80s slider has vertical break, but it’s blunt and lacks that bat-missing bite. Realistically, he’s a developmental bullpen piece, but there are some late-inning components in place if that slider gets tighter. Jaquez is 20 and has above-average bat speed.
Potential Role-Playing Arms
Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
Zach Haake, RHP
Arnaldo Hernandez, RHP
Andres Machado, RHP
Bowlan’s stuff has been all over the place, sometimes even during the same start. He was 89-95 during his first outing and could be a sinker/slider reliever, but the Royals have done fairly well with sinkerballers lately. Haake will show plus stuff for an inning or two before his command starts to waivers. He could be a mid-90s, plus slider reliever. Hernandez is 23 and could be a changeup-centric reliever if his fastball ticks up in relief. Machado is a mid-90s/cutter reliever without a pitch that will obviously miss bats.
Bench Types
Michael Gigliotti, OF
Gabriel Cancel, 2B
Bubba Starling, CF
Blake Perkins, CF
Kort Peterson, 1B
Juan Carlos Negret, RF
Cristian Perez, SS
Gigliotti was a plus runner with feel for the zone who was a 40 runner this spring, his first back from an ACL tear. If the speed returns, he’s a likely bench outfielder. Cancel is a career .265 hitter, is at Double-A, and could be an infield utility bat. We still think Bubba Starling, who runs well and plays a fine center field but has never found a good swing foundation, plays in the big leagues. Perkins is now 23 and still lacks physicality, but he can really run and play center. Peterson is a corner guy with some contact skills. Negret has plus power but little feel for contact. Perez is an instinctive defender with some feel to hit.
System Overview
We spent a lot of effort trying to discern what the Royals were trying to do with their 2018 draft bonus pool, which was the biggest in baseball last year, because it was going to have such a profound impact on the rest of the draft. They ended up with all college value picks (and, eventually, Rylan Kaufman), which tasted disappointingly vanilla at the time, but now looks like a clear-headed approach as it yielded five of the org’s top 10 prospects and several other interesting ones, our Bowlan skepticism be damned.
This is a top-to-bottom reset, with maybe four or five players on the big league roster who are realistic parts of the next competitive Royals team, at the same that there aren’t any top 100 prospects currently in the system. The big wave of talent that represents the crest of the rebuilding wave is at Hi-A Wilmington right now, and whomever becomes the second pick in the upcoming draft (be it Adley Rutchsmann or Andrew Vaughn, the two players we think are the most likely to go first or second based on talent) should be advanced enough to join them pretty quickly, so long as the Royals don’t take a high schooler. Whoever the pick, barring a sizable leap from one of the 45 FV players on this list, the new 2019 draftee will immediately be the club’s No. 1 prospect. Perhaps, if enough of that wave actually pans out, they’ll be good again sooner than the overall quality of the farm indicates.
We also have them linked to outfielder Erick Pena, who is No. 4 among our 2019 July 2 prospects at the time of publication. So there’s some more exciting talent coming. But right now, the most important parts of the org are the amateur scouting and player dev staff who might help Kansas City create tradable big leaguers.
Not even 1 player with a 50 FV. This is going to be a very long rebuild for the Royals. Very cool!
Those grades are subjective. I have a feeling that if some of these players were in the Braves or Rays systems they would be at least 50s.
Why? You think the authors here have an actual bias against teams? Any proof of that?
Dan Szymborski makes no secret of the fact he enjoys antagonizing Royals fans and taking shots at the org. Which is, whatever, but also seems kind of petty and dumb for someone who wants to be taken seriously as a writer/analyst.
I dont think there is specific biases but the larger analytics community, not just fangraphs, does seem to give certain teams the benefit of the doubt a lot more than others though. Even when its an objectively questionable/bad move. When the A’s do something strange its often framed as “maybe they know something we dont” and when say KC does something strange its “lol, the Royals are being dumb as always”
Dayton Moore built one of the best farm systems ever seen and went to back to back world series just a handful of years ago. Yet the general feeling around here is that it was all luck and the Royals have no idea what they are doing in this rebuild. And hey, that might turn out to be right and maybe this goes horribly. but you would think that recent history would have earned Moore and the Royals a bit more leeway/credibility.
(heads for higher ground to avoid the tsunami of downvotes coming. lol)
I’ve just spent about five months ragging on the Indians for their OF situation and for doing what the Rockies do.
umm…cool?
That doesnt change the fact that you admittedly (proudly even) actively seek to annoy a specific team’s fanbase. Which might be acceptable for @randominternetblogger or a dedicated internet troll but I tend to hold Fangraphs to a higher standard. Largely because they have always been a higher standard. To me, it just undercuts everything you write and lowers the discourse.
But I can only speak for myself. Obviously it works for you.
The specific example of the Royals is weird, because I don’t think anyone really has biases against them–they deserve a good chunk (maybe all) of the criticism they get on these pages.
That said, there are definitely teams that get a pass. The Rays are probably the prime example of this. The Rays have been making strange personnel moves for about two or three years now, and a bunch of us are sitting there, trying to read through the lines and figure out what they are seeing. I think there is some value in trying to figure out why the Rays are doing what they’re doing, but it doesn’t change the fact that many of their moves are bad ones. (And yes, I know they’re 12-4, but that doesn’t owe much to their weird moves).
They also won 90 games last year and possess a farm system that is universally (not just here) regarded as one of the best. I think they are doing something right and the majority of their moves the last few years look good so far
The Rays have a great development system and have been insanely lucky with the Pham and Archer trades. They do lots of things right, too.
I think it is pretty clear when you read the work. Everyone has favorites. Go ahead and dismiss it if you want. I feel confident in my statement that you are free to ignore. This isn’t science – there isn’t going to be any proof of anything. Choose what you believe. It’s what we all do.
Its not like these grades are foolproof. the difference between a 45+ guy and a 50 is subjective at best and non existent if you want to be cynical.
The Royals have eight 45-45+ guys and presumably will be adding to the high end (50+ FV) with the second overall pick this year, and likely another high pick in 2020. Plus whatever they get if they decide to deal Merrifield (which they absolutely should do). So they really are not that far off, relatively speaking. They are kind of just going about it in a weird way.
this is by no means an endorsement that this strategy will actually work
They aren’t trading Merrifield. They are under the impression that he’ll be part of the next wave and Moore has stated that he wants the team to always be competitive. Trading your best player, even if it makes slam dunk sense, prevents the latter.
Internally they see their window starting to open in ~2021, which is flawed to me, but it’s what they’ve said.