Top 27 Prospects: Kansas City Royals

With few exceptions (Joey Gallo is one) even the most whiff-prone big leaguers struck out less than Matias (34% career K%) when they were in the minors. But Matias’ physicality and bat speed are so supreme, the gap between his talent and that of most players so obvious, that there’s a chance he can be one of those exceptions, even if it’s in a streaky, inconsistent manner like Domingo Santana or Carlos Gomez. As a teen, Seuly was already posting exit velocities on par with burly, Quad-A type hitters. We hope he learns to take a walk, but “Randal Grichuk with more raw power” is a good player, so we’re cautiously optimistic that the Royals at least have a contributing big leaguer here, and a potential superstar if there’s contact/approach refinement, which is admittedly easier said than done.

Well-regarded in high school in part because of his very loose, athletic, albeit somewhat unusual delivery, the Blue Jays drafted Singer in the 2015 second round. Negotiations broke down and Singer went to Florida. After an uneven but promising freshman year in the bullpen, Singer’s command improved and he carved up SEC lineups for the next two years. There’s plenty to pick apart here if you want to: Singer’s stuff still isn’t loud, he doesn’t get many whiffs from pro level hitters, his delivery turns off some scouts, and his breaking ball often lacks bite.

Even scouts who like Singer think he has limited upside, but the results he got in the SEC and his long track record of durability are compelling. He has great feel for pitching and, we think, future plus command. Singer sneers and goes right at hitters, he’s really competitive, and is likely to move up the pro ladder quickly. On talent, he’s a No. 4 or No. 4/5 type of starter, but the potential to eat tons of innings, and therefore be more valuable than that, seems higher than usual here, too.

On the Cape and in the first half of his junior spring, Lynch looked like a solid third round prospect, a pitchability lefty sitting 88-92 mph with mostly average stuff, and above-average feel and command. In the month or so leading up to the draft, Lynch’s velo ticked up, and down the stretch he sat 92-94, touching 95 mph deep into starts, with an assortment of offspeed pitches that all flashed above-average. The track record of Virginia arms is concerning, but Lynch seemed less beholden to the issues traditionally associated with their prospects, with some scouts considering him endearingly rebellious.

He throws a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup that all flash above-average, with the slider occasionally flashing plus. He was 93-95 this spring, so the velo uptick has held for nearly a year now. He’s a potential No. 4 if this continues, maybe more if it’s just the start of something.

Opinions regarding Melendez’s defense have been surprisingly mixed considering he was an adolescent catching prodigy. Team framing metrics have him graded as an average receiver, and he’s added mass since high school, when he was lean and lithe, so he is no longer quite as twitchy, but he’s not really a risk to move off the position. Instead, where it once seemed like Melendez might turn into an elite defender, it now appears he’ll merely be good.

That mass has added power, though, the kind of power that would certainly profile everyday were Melendez able to get to it in games. He strikes out a lot, enough that teams are concerned about it. He was on early drafts of our Top 100 but was one of the prospects we were most often told to move down when we sourced teams for feedback. He could be an everyday catcher with power, but there’s bust risk because of the contact issues, to say nothing of the grisly recent history of teenage catching prospects going bust.

Pratto went from two-way duty as a high school senior, to Low-A teenager in his first full pro season, and he performed admirably. Pratto hit .280/.343/.443 with 14 homers at Lexington, largely thanks to a hot August. He also stole a surprising 22 bases, but based on how thick and muscular he looked during 2019 spring training, that seems unlikely to continue.

Some of the pre-draft notions that Pratto had elite plate discipline (part of why he generated some irresponsible Joey Votto comps at the time) seem false now that we have a larger sample of data to look at. It makes it more important that Pratto get to all his power so he can profile at first, something made even more imperative by his mediocre, early-career contact rates. We like his chances of doing that and becoming a fine everyday first baseman who adds value on defense.

Lee’s 2018 Fall League showing was so poor that it forced us to consider a serious re-evaluation, even though we often toss out bad AFL looks because of how fatigued some of the players are. The quality of his at-bats and the senselessly aggressive hacks Lee would take were not traits of physical exhaustion. Ultimately, we left Lee where we had him since he suddenly grew into power during his senior year of high school.

Once a little two-way LHP/CF prospect, he’s now a right fielder with power, who walks and is currently stealing bases. A 40 runner from home to first, Lee runs better than that under way but was too brazen a thief early in his career and made too many outs on the bases. He got better at picking his spots last year. His contact rates are concerning, but they’re offset by the walks and thump enough that we think he projects as a solid-average regular in right field.

Lopez is a slick defensive shortstop who walked more than he struck out at Double- and Triple-A last year. Those traits make him very interesting and perhaps someone we aren’t properly enthused about. He’s small and has very little raw power, but Lopez’s feel for contact is so good that he ends up with sneaky, in-game doubles pop. His three-year ZiPS projections have him at nearly two annual WAR, which means he arguably belongs on our Top 100 list. His realistic ceiling is that of an average regular, something that may be harder to accomplish if Adalberto Mondesi‘s presence forces him to second base, where the offensive bar is higher.

Kowar had a seven-figure asking price coming out of high school, which was just out of reach of what clubs were willing to commit from their spending pools. He was set to head to Clemson until a late coaching change caused him to reconsider his commitment, and the Tigers ultimately lost him to Florida (and Cal Raleigh to Florida State). Kowar’s velocity ticked up before he even played in an official game for the Gators, sitting 93-95 and hitting 97 mph in preseason scrimmages before his freshman year. He kept that velocity throughout his college career and developed a plus changeup.

The two issues for Kowar are his very short stride, which causes his velocity to play down, and his breaking ball, which is not great. It’s still most often a below average pitch, with curveball velocity and three-quarters slider shape. Cogent pitch design may help the pitch, or indicate the Royals should just scrap it altogether and try something like a cutter or slider. These issues are almost identical to Luke Weaver’s coming out of Florida State; he’s appeared to have solved those at times, though not at others.

A dominant junior year would have had Bubic in the late first round mix, but his control backed up, especially late in the year. Though he only throws 87-91, his fastball plays well in the zone as his delivery (which is similar to Clayton Kershaw‘s) creates tough angle on the pitch. Bubic’s best pitch is his changeup and it’s most effective when he’s gotten ahead of hitters, which he often did not last year. When he’s throwing strikes, Bubic looks like a solid No. 4 or 5 big league starter. He began the year at Low-A Lexington, and seems a likely mid-year promotion candidate if he pitches well there.

Isbel hit .319 and .290 as a freshman and sophomore, respectively, and then grew into a new grade of power in his junior year while maintaining his contact skills and taking advantage of pitchers’ newfound hesitance to attack him in the zone. None of his tools are especially loud, but Isbel does several things fairly well and he has a slight chance to play a passable big league center field. If he moves to a corner, he might need a plus bat to profile, but that seems possible given how good his feel to hit was as an amateur. He could be a well-rounded everyday outfielder even without a plus tool.

Surface-level evaluations of Lovelady’s stuff show two above-average pitches in a mid-90s fastball and long-arcing slider, but those grow into true plus offerings once you factor in some of his mechanical traits. His lower arm slot, a release point approaching Josh Hader’s unique spot, creates very odd angle on his stuff. It’s especially tough on lefties, who have a .224 OBP against Lovelady each of the last two years. Lovelady also has better command, especially breaking ball command, than most relievers. He’ll be able to get swings and misses from righties by way of back foot sliders, and he can beat them in the zone with his heater.

We put 40 FVs on two-pitch, upper-level relievers like this, but the seemingly significant impact of Lovelady’s delivery, combined with what looks like will be multi-inning usage, gives him a chance to be one of the more valuable relievers in baseball.

The Salvador Perez injury makes it much more likely that we get an extended look at Viloria with the big club this year after he was given a 10-game sip last September. There’s some power here, but Viloria has to sell out to get to it in games because his swing’s not naturally geared for lift. Instead, he leans into a contact-oriented approach, and generates his power through strength in his hands.

On defense, Viloria has one hell of an arm, but the rest of his catching traits are only okay. He falls a little short of what it would take to consider him a regular due to issues on both sides of the ball, but he’s still only 22 and we think he’s at least a high-probability backup.

Tillo is a recent velo spike guy who has been up to 97 this spring, but he was often into the mid-90s last summer. Both of his secondaries are capable of missing bats, but he has to locate his slider for that pitch to be effective, and his general feel for the craft is lacking, so that may never happen consistently. Despite his long arm action, Tillo also has a diving changeup that hitters will swing over the top of, or make awkward contact with. It’s No. 4 starter stuff, but we think Tillo’s control means he’ll likely move to the bullpen eventually.

Huge extension adds about 2 mph of perceived velocity to Blewett’s fastball, and he leans on it heavily. Blewett was a cold weather prep arm who needed a lot of grooming and though none of his pitches are plus, he’s developed enough to be considered a high-probability backend rotation piece. He’s going to throw a lot of strikes and locate his breaking ball in spots that hitters can’t do much with. His big, sturdy frame might eat a ton of innings while Kansas City rebuilds.

One of the more talented prospects cut loose by the Braves during their international scandal, Del Rosario’s fastball creeps into the mid-90s, and he has a good curveball and a sturdy build that is admittedly less projectable than is typical for a 19-year-old. His strike-throwing took a step forward in 2018, but his profile includes fairly significant relief risk. He spent all of 2018 at Low-A Lexington but has dealt with a biceps issue this spring, and isn’t currently at an affiliate. He’s in that No. 4 or 5 starter/potential late-inning reliever area as far as stuff goes, and is probably several years away from the majors.

The Royals lauded Gutierrez’s glove after acquiring him, going so far as to say that they think he could handle shortstop if they needed him to. At least in our longest stretch of in-person evaluation of Gutierrez, he has looked just okay at third base, and saw time at first.

The bat-to-ball skills are real. He’s a career .286 hitter in the minors and has reached base at a .346 clip. A lack of game power probably means Gutierrez fits better in a multi-positional reserve role than as a regular at third or first base. He appears athletic enough to handle the corner outfield spots, and it makes sense to give him time there in the near future.

We’re proponents of Rivera’s bat; his swing is compact, he has barrel control, and he is very difficult to beat on the inner half. He’s not a very good defensive infielder, however, and doesn’t have the power to profile at places further down the defensive spectrum. It’s natural to wonder if he can catch, and Rivera has a catcherly build, but we just don’t know if he can, and his arm strength isn’t a obvious fit for the position. He may end up playing a corner bench role, basically the one we have projected for Gutierrez one spot ahead of him in this system, but we’d have to see him play other positions before feeling confident in that projection. He only really does one thing, but it’s the thing we think is most important.

There have been stretches during Griffin’s pro career when either his command or velocity have slipped a tad, and he’s been knocked around during those stretches. When both are fine, he’s a good pitchability lefty who feeds hitters a steady diet of secondary pitches. Often, this type of hurler becomes Tommy Milone, but Griffin’s curveball is a little better than that (though, Milone has a good cutter), so we like his chances of playing a No. 5 starter role soon.

He doesn’t throw all that hard, but Garabito has an impact breaking ball and, other than in 2018, a history of throwing lots of strikes. Other than his plunging 12-6 curveball, Garabito’s stuff is very average and his fastball may be vulnerable once hitters have seen it a few times. It might make him more viable in a multi-inning relief role where he can throw the curveball a ton and use the fastball as a change of pace pitch.

Hernandez is a high-probability fifth starter/middle reliever depending on how his breaking ball develops. He throws hard, he has a good change up, and he’s an inelegant, but relatively efficient, strike thrower. We tend to think he’ll just end up blowing heat past people in relief, but Hernandez is still only 22 and it makes sense to let him work on his breaking stuff on a starter’s pitch count in the hope that something improves.

Morel had just arrived in the U.S. last year when the Nationals sent him to Kansas City as part of the Kelvin Herrera trade. At age 17, Morel performed against older competition while being asked to adjust to a new country and parent organization at the same time. His stuff was still strong in the fall, where he was 90-94 with a mid-80s, split-action changeup that was often plus. He’s not physically projectable, but he’s athletic and has some traits typical of sinker/changeup-centric rotation pieces.

Cox is a small school lefty with low-90s heat (he’ll touch 94 but sit 88-91 later in starts) and a breaking ball with bat-missing vertical action. His high slot might make it hard for Cox to command his stuff to all quadrants of the strike zone, and his lack of present changeup is concerning, but if he can back foot his breaking ball, he’ll have a way to deal with righties. He needs a third pitch, change or not, but should otherwise end up as a good lefty reliever.

Hicklen went to UAB planning to play both football and baseball, but the school’s football program was shut down when he got to campus, and he was drafted and signed by Kansas City before it was reborn. He practiced with the team, but never suited up for the gridiron.

2018 was his first year of full-time baseball and he hit .307/.378/.552 with 17 homers and 29 steals, albeit as a 22-year-old at Low-A. His strength/raw power and straight-line speed are what you’d probably expect from a college wide receiver, but Hicklen’s compact, in-game swing prioritizes contact. He’s predictably raw and somewhat stiff rather than graceful and coordinated but he has physical ability, he plays really hard, and there’s a chance some of the skill-based parts of the game come to him in his mid-20s.

Signed for $750,000, Florentino is a little spark plug with elite short-area quickness and transfer. His defensive range will play on the middle infield, though his arm might fit better at second. While Florentino has viable swings from both sides of the plate, his raw power projection is limited by his size.

Burt began playing all over the field in 2018 and is intriguing as a speedy utility guy who takes good at-bats. He has almost no playable power, so there’s a chance his offensive skills don’t hold water at the upper levels (pitchers may just attack him because of the lack of power, deadening the impact of his patience), and he’s just an org guy, but he’s a sleeper utility man who may get a shot sometime during this Royals rebuild.

Staumont would sit 99-99 and touch 101 or 102 in college and also has a dastardly curveball, but he’s a 6 or 7 walks per nine guy, and hasn’t been able to make headway in the control/command realm as a pro. He’s 25 now, and will probably get some exposure to the big leagues just to see what happens, but he would seem to be on the 40-man fringe.

Lara throws really hard and his breaking ball has plus raw spin, though visual evaluations of that pitch are not as strong as the spin rates suggest. He may benefit from a release or grip adjustment because his fastball movement is wildly inconsistent. So, too, is his control, and Lara will likely end up in a bullpen. It’ll take plenty of polish to make something of him, but there’s late-inning stuff here.