Top 36 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

Medina is right there with Sanchez in the Phillies system when it comes to upside. He shows three plus pitches at times and may be a better athlete than Sanchez, so the elements of frontline starter potential are here. Medina works in the mid-90’s early in games with plus life and at his best, he’ll pair it with a changeup with similar action and a slider that can play even better than 60 when ideally used and located. Like most young power arms, Medina’s command and velocity degrade in the middle innings as his focus and intensity wane and fatigue starts to set in. More advanced hitters can lay off his lively stuff when it’s more area-type control than MLB-level pitch execution. Scouts like Medina’s makeup, coachability, and athleticism (most prefer him to Sanchez in this regard) and expect him to continue to improve in these areas.

Bohm was under the scouting radar until a breakout campaign on Cape Cod, during which both he and teammate Greyson Jenista (a second round pick by the Braves) emerged as top tier bats in the 2018 draft. During the spring, Bohm steadily worked his way up from the late first round to the third overall pick by hitting more than scouts expected a long-limbed power threat to hit. Bohm pulls this off by keeping his arms tucked in during his swing and having a flatter plane; as a result he’s both quicker into the zone and in the zone longer than most power hitters. Ideally, hitters with Bohm’s plus-plus power have more loft in their swing plane and extend their arms to generate the most power, with Kris Bryant an example of a hitter with a similar frame and this more power-focused approach. We’re projecting Bohm as a 50 bat with 60 game power and split the difference a bit–he could go even more extreme for power at the expense of contact–but there are a number of ways this offensive skillset could turn out, particularly with new and more progressive hitting instruction this year for the Phillies. Bohm’s defense also could go a few different ways, depending how much weight he adds to his lean frame and how his lateral quickness ages. Defensively, Bohm looks major league average at times and clearly below average at others, but he’ll get plenty of chances to make things work at third base.

Teams were understandably late to identify Howard as an upper crust draft prospect. He redshirted, then only threw 36 innings the following spring as a redshirt freshman and began his draft year in the bullpen, a relative unknown. He moved to the rotation in March and crosscheckers started showing up to see him much later than is typical for a first look at a second round talent. In 2018, his first full season as a member of the rotation, Howard thrived and late in the year his stuff took off. After two dominant months to close his regular season, Howard threw a no hitter in the Sally League playoffs. During that stretch, he was sitting 94-98 for much of his starts and flashing three good secondary pitches, the best of which is a disappearing, low-80s changeup. Howard can also freeze hitters with a mid-70s curveball and use it to get ahead, and his mid-80s slider has enough length to miss bats away from righties. Though he has below average fastball command, Howard’s ability to throw his breaking balls for strikes significantly improves his chances of starting. His inning count in 2018 (112) was about the same as it was if you combine his college and pro workload from 2017, and it’s fair to assume that even if Philly wants to him to throw more innings, an innings cap might impede a 2019 debut, even if Howard’s stuff is ready. He has considerable upside if he can retain his stuff while carrying a 160-plus inning burden.

Garcia signed for the fifth highest bonus in the 2017 July 2nd class, among a few already-elite prospects like Rookie of the Year Shohei Ohtani, Rays shortstop Wander Franco, Diamondbacks outfielder Kristian Robinson and Mets shortstop Ronny Mauricio. Garcia could be next in line to jump into the 50 FV tier during the 2019 season, building on a solid pro debut in 2018, where he improved his already-impressive tool profile. To clarify any confusion, it’s worth noting that there is another, very similar middle infield prospect with the Nationals of the same name who was also born in the same year. The Phillies’ Garcia has an above average hit tool to go with above average speed, defense, and arm strength at shortstop, so it won’t be a long journey to turn into a regular if he can maintain those current tools. He’s played just 43 official minor league games and has an unsustainably-high .418 BABIP, but the performance also supports the standout skillset. Some scouts argue there isn’t a plus tool here other than arm strength, so you can’t stuff Garcia too high until he’s done a little more in official games, but he’s already among the top 200 prospects or so in baseball. Some see sneaky potential average raw power down the road, which Garcia could mostly get to in games if he ends up being the plus hitter that some are projecting, though some scouts see 45 hit and 40 power, given the limited pro looks they’ve had. It’s also worth noting that Garcia has become close friends with Alec Bohm; the pair could team up to form half of the infield of the future in Philadelphia. Garcia will definitely be one to watch closely in 2019 as there’s some in-season ceiling to his potential ranking, particularly if he can perform the way the Nationals’ Luis Garcia did this past year; that Garcia reached High-A at age 18.

Haseley was an intriguing two-way talent with a big price tag and decent tools out of an Orlando-area high school. In college, stood out playing both ways for the Cavaliers, emerging in his draft year as an elite hitter. He’d still pitched his whole career, so some scouts saw further offensive potential beyond Haseley’s dominating draft year due to an exclusive pro focus on hitting, excellent exit velocities, and a quirky, flat-planed swing that could be streamlined in pro ball. He’s made some subtle changes to his swing but he’s still mostly the same player he was in his draft year at Virginia. Haseley is fringy to average for most scouts in center field. His pitcher arm strength doesn’t translate to the outfield, but he would be an above average left fielder if he can’t stick in center. Like a few hitters in this system, a loft or approach change could shift the offensive profile a bit for Haseley, but he seems capable of a roughly 100 wRC+ (read: major league average at the plate), which is a solid regular if he can be average in center field. That may not be super exciting, but high probability, close-to-the-majors 2-3 WAR position players are incredibly valuable in today’s game.

After a year of sitting 90-94, Romero’s fastball velocity fluctuated pretty significantly both start-to-start and within individual games, often resting in the upper-80s like it did while he was in college. But he was also up to 95 at times, even reaching back for that kind of heat late in his starts. Some of the drop in velocity may have been artificial, a result of Romero working more on sinking and cutting his fastball rather than just throwing it hard. He’s a plus on-mound athlete who we anticipate will be a sinker/changeup No. 4 or 5 starter relatively soon. His season ended in mid-July due to an oblique strain.

De Los Santos was acquired from San Diego in the 2017 one-for-one deal for Freddy Galvis and reached the majors in 2018. He throws hard, has a good changeup, and makes good situational use of two pedestrian breaking balls. De Los Santos’ fastball plays down a little bit because he’s a short-striding, lower arm slot guy who doesn’t get down the mound all that well. He probably won’t blow hitters away as often as others who throw in the mid-90s do, but he still has a playable fastball. We think he’s a near-ready No. 4 or 5 starter.

It’s been two and a half years since the Red Sox bonus packaging scandal of 2016, and Muzziotti has emerged as the best of the collection of prospects who were granted free agency in its aftermath. Muzziotti shares traits with many tweener/fourth outfielder prospects — he’s small-framed and lacks raw power — but what separates him is the verve in his hands and his promising feel for contact. A plus bat on a good defensive center fielder (or elite corner defender) plays every day, and Muzziotti makes a visual case for that kind of projection. He also struck out in just 13% of his full-season at-bats last year, which is impressive for a 19-year-old. Ender Inciarte and Brett Gardner are two examples of far right tail outcomes for players of this ilk.

Morales is comparable to the high school pitching prospects who are selected at the back of the first or in the early second round. Like most well-regarded teenage arms, Morales throws in the mid-90s, flashes impact breaking stuff (he’ll snap off the occasional plus-plus slider), and is athletic enough for proponents to project in the areas where he is currently deficient. His long, deep, plunging arm action is quite violent and he has walked 12% of hitters he’s faced during his career, so there’s considerable relief risk here, but it’s not uncommon for teenage arms with this kind of stuff to struggle with strike throwing for a while. Morales’ stuff is good enough that, even if he turns into a crass, imprecise strike-thrower, it gives him a sizable margin for error within the hitting zone. He’ll also have to develop a better changeup. There’s mid-rotation upside here if that stuff comes, but it’s more likely Morales will be a dominant bullpen piece or inefficient backend starter.

Moniak got onto scouts’ radar as a prep underclassman and was a classic projection hitter, showing plus speed and defense with a smooth stroke and projection to his frame. As the draft neared and he entered pro ball, Moniak added strength and lost a step (though he can still be an average center fielder) but struggled to make offensive adjustments. In the second half of 2018, Moniak turned the corner and stopped rolling over on pitches away; he also chose better pitches he could drive. He was also very young for the Hi-A Florida State League, which is notoriously pitcher friendly. In 2019, Moniak will start the season as a 20-year-old in Double-A Reading, which is notoriously hitter-friendly, and sources indicate he’s bulked up since the season ended. This, in combination with a more progressive, loft-oriented hitting coordinator, could make now a buy-low opportunity on Moniak, even if his numbers will be artificially inflated at Reading. There’s still a chance for a solid regular here, with fringe-to-average offense and defense in center field, and his age vs. level masks his ability a bit, but we’d like to see what changes are made in 2019 before totally buying in.

Llovera had a bit of a breakthrough in 2018, teaching himself a splitter that flashes plus in the second half when he wasn’t happy with how his breaking ball was coming out of his hand. One pro scout we spoke with saw Llovera once early, when he was into the upper-90’s with a plus-flashing breaking ball, then saw him later with the same heater and the plus-flashing splitter, only this time, he wasn’t throwing the breaking ball much. That scout said if all three elements were together at once, it would be something like Kelvin Herrera (who was a 55 or 60 PV/FV at his peak). There’s some obvious risk that Llovera’s stuff plays below it’s peak 2018 showings, that his command is a bit below average, and that his size limits him to multi-inning relief, in which case he’s more of a 40 or 45 FV reliever who dazzles at times. He probably isn’t a 180 inning starter, but Llovera will be one to watch early in 2019 to see what sort of stuff he’s showing. He could be the next Phillies Latin power arm to be moved to relief who then shoots to the big leagues after Seranthony Dominguez, Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano. We like the makeup and ability to make adjustments, so expect his grade to be higher in 2019 if he continues doing what he did in 2018.

Suarez is in the mix with Enyel De Los Santos, Drew Anderson, and Cole Irvin for the No. 5 starter job, and while Suarez is the second-best prospect of that bunch, the decision is likely to come down more to March performance and a short-term outlook on being able to navigate a big league lineup. At his best in short stints, Suarez works 92-95 and has hit 97 mph, but usually works a tick or two below that as a starter. When the arm speed is at it’s best, Suarez’s fastball has extra life and his curveball, changeup, and slider all flash above average at times. As a starter, Suarez is more average to a touch above across the board and is an innings-eating backend type, but there’s much less room for error and pitchers like this can find themselves on waivers when things get out of whack. Either version has big league value, but Suarez’s best role may be a multi-inning relief type with four pitches, and he may get a chance to do just that in 2019 at the big league level.

Marchan is an athletic, catch-and-throw guy with bat control and gap power. He hit .301 in the Penn League as a 19-year-old and now has three straight years of strikeout rates well below league average. He struggles to squeeze good breaking balls but is otherwise a promising receiver and ball blocker. So long as Marchan’s little frame can withstand the physical grind of the position, he could be a well-rounded every day catcher.

So unpolished is Brito that the Phillies omitted him from 40-man protection in November and he went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft. The quality of his at-bats remains inconsistent and he has yet to have a strong full-season statistical campaign. But he’s an above-average athlete with middle infield actions, a good frame, and very attractive left-handed swing. Solely on hand talent and defensive profile, we think Brito has considerable upside, but there’s a chance he’s just always a frustrating guess hitter. Brito will be the age of most college juniors next year and he’s already had a taste of Hi-A. Were he a junior at an SEC school, he’d be the kind of talent that goes in the second round if he turns a corner during the spring and performs, and in the fourth round if he doesn’t.

Maton’s older brother Phil is a big league reliever for the Padres but Nick was below the radar as an amateur prospect. He was a 40th rounder from high school who went undrafted his first year at a junior college, then was a 7th rounder in his second year. Nick has done nothing but perform since entering pro ball and scouts have noticed, hanging average or better grades on four of his tools, with power still lagging behind a bit. The likely upside here is a good utility player, but the gap between that and a low-end regular is usually a good swing or approach adjustment. Maton doesn’t have the prettiest swing in the world, but a new hitting coordinator may be able to tease a bit more out of what has already been working so far.

Gamboa is a plus runner and thrower along with being a flashy defender who shows plus ability but needs to be a little more consistent with his execution. Offensively, there’s much less to get excited about; there isn’t much raw power, with even less in games (due in part to his contact-oriented mechanics), and his pitch selection comes and goes, as seen especially in a down 2018 season. Due to his glove, he was added to the 40-man roster and now there’s less chance his offense will get time to breathe, as he’ll be burning options and may be needed for emergency duty in the big leagues. Odds are Gamboa becomes a utility guy; he’s still young enough to be more, but it isn’t looking likely.

Ortiz is a prospect of extremes: he signed for $4 million at age 16, and had 70 raw power as a 15-year-old (some scouts call it an 80 now) when he weighed around 250 lbs. (some scouts went higher on that number, as well). He’s a surprisingly good athlete and underway runner for his size, but there’s an obvious risk that he’s a bad-body right-right first baseman, which may be the worst hitter profile for a prospect in today’s game.

Castillo was one of the top pitchers in the 2018 July 2nd market, receiving the second-highest bonus and ranking third in the class for us when he signed. He has a strong, mature and somewhat maxed-out frame, though some similar pitchers have changed their body composition in pro ball and found more velocity and consistency. Castillo was up to 97 mph as a 15-year-old at the highly-scouted MLB international event in February in the Dominican Republic, and has touched higher in private settings. There’s still a long way to go, but currently Castillo has rare arm strength, good athleticism, and a good delivery without much else. When projecting someone this young, you can see off-speed pitches that flash average becoming crisper with maturity, and below average command turning into average command, and all of a sudden, you have an average or better MLB starter. Given his precocious skills, this is not completely unwarranted projection, but it’s mostly just that at this point, beyond the velocity.

Duran is an athletic, workmanlike catcher with plus raw arm strength. He receives well, is mobile, and will show you pop times in the low 1.9s when his footwork is correct. So short are Duran’s swing and levers that it’s tough to beat him with velocity. He can muscle up and pull just about everything, and he was able to yank out 18 homers in 2018. That’s probably not sustainable, but the defense, athleticism, and contagious effort level make him a high probability backup.

Garcia had been yo-yo’d back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation during each of the previous two seasons, but was left to air it out in relief for all of 2018 and broke out, striking out 72 hitters in 64 innings and reaching Triple-A. He’s a classic two-pitch, single-inning reliever. Garcia sits 93-96 at times, 91-94 at others, and has a power mid-80s slider. The slider has bat-missing movement away from righties but just kind of tumbles when Garcia tries to throw it for a strike. He doesn’t have a great way of attacking lefties, which is part of why his usage may be limited.

The pitches Gowdy threw on the final day of Philly’s 2018 fall instructional league were his first in more than two years due to an unfortunately-timed Tommy John and subsequent rehabilitation. He topped out at 92. In high school, Gowdy had No. 4 starter stuff. At his best, he’d sit 90-94 with pinpoint glove-side command of an above-average slider. He was in the 2016 draft’s crowded late-first and early-second round prep pitching picture, a group that hasn’t yet seen anyone emerge as several have required UCL reconstruction. Gowdy probably moves into the 40+ FV tier if his velocity and breaking ball are back in the spring, but he’s clearly behind the developmental curve for a 21-year-old.

Purely on stuff, Young belongs in the bottom section of this list. His fastball lives in the upper-80s, sometimes 86-88, and he has a curveball and changeup that each project to average. But Young’s size makes him an uncomfortable at-bat, especially for left-handed hitters, and he has the tools to deal with righties when he’s locating, as he often is. In essence, this is a No. 6 starter pitchability lefty with extreme size, and we think the size impacts his stuff in a positive way. There’s no modern precedent for a pitcher like Young. 14-year veteran righty Chris Young has a similar build but was a superior athlete, and Kyle and Chris differ mechanically and stylistically so much that they’re not really comparable past their frames.

Dohy entered pro ball with limited pedigree as a 17th rounder from a smaller SoCal junior college and walked a batter per inning in his pro debut. 2018 was a different story, as Dohy breezed through both A-ball levels, then finally ran into some trouble in Double-A as more advanced hitters didn’t just chase every pitch he threw out of the zone. Dohy will go back to Double-A at age 22 for 2019 and needs to dial in his command and approach to find a happy medium, but there’s some ceiling here if he does. Dohy gets into the mid-90’s from the left side, his slider and changeup both flash above average at times, and he has excellent extension. There’s reason to believe his command will always be below average, and his reasonable upside is a middle reliever, but it’s early enough in his prospect lifecycle to think there could be more.

Guzman proponents acknowledge he’s unlikely to do any offensive damage whatsoever, but they think he’s slick enough at shortstop to eventually play a low-end everyday role there. A small-framed 6-feet tall, Guzman has a low-impact swing path and below-average bat speed, but he’s an acrobatic infield athlete with good range and arm strength. He projects as an above-average defensive shortstop who plays a utility infield role.

Plus-running infielders with some power aren’t readily available, which made Holmes’ acquisition an 11th round coup at $500,000. His frame and limited lateral agility made him likely to move off of shortstop, and Holmes is already seeing most of his playing time at third base. In possession of notable physical tools at age 20, but with relatively raw feel to hit, we have Holmes valued the way we would a good junior college prospect, and think he’s an interesting developmental flier.

Warren’s breaking ball has a tough-to-square angle and a rare ability to miss bats within the strike zone. He struck out 44% of hitters he faced in 2018. His velocity has ticked up a bit since college and now rests in the 91-94 range, and also forces hitters to reckon with a weird angle. The combination of deception and the breaking ball are probably enough to make Warren a dominant lefty specialist, but if his fastball also plays against righties he could be more.

Santos is pretty singular in the context of low-level pro ball but actually shares traits with a cluster of recent high school pitching prospects who unexpectedly grew into premium stuff. Just 17 when the season started, Santos dominated older GCL hitters for two months. He walked just four batters in eleven starts and struck out more than a batter per inning despite often sitting just 88-92. If he develops velocity, Santos could be very good very quickly because he can do everything else. He has a plus-flashing split-action changeup and can locate an average slider. His fastball moves, and he can run it back onto his gloveside corner or just off the plate to his arm side. But it’s hard to say if Santos will grow into more fastball because his frame is already maxed out. The scouting reports of rising high school seniors Jesus Luzardo and Forrest Whitley read an awful lot like that before each of them altered their training and conditioning, and experienced a huge jump in velocity. Whether Santos is a candidate for ‘reverse projection’ in this way is hard to say, but it’s fair to assume some growth on the fastball through sheer physical maturity. If Santos retains his command at greater velocities, he’s going to move quickly and could be a monster. If the velo doesn’t come, he’ll have to keep proving year after year that he can gets guys out with 40 velo.

Rivas is an athletic switch-hitter who plays good defense all over the field. He has gap-to-gap pop and runs pretty well. Rivas has never performed statistically, but he has several rosterable traits and might grow into more competent offensive ability late, as is sometimes the case with switch-hitters.

Falter doesn’t throw hard–he sits 88-91 with a pretty straight fastball–but he’s big and gets excellent extension down the mound, adding over two ticks of perceived velocity to his heater. He also knows how to operate up in the zone with his fastball, with good enough command to do it on the corners, and pair it with a big-breaking curveball, mixing in some changeups to keep hitters honest. There’s a chance for a unique backend starter, especially if the velocity comes a little more, but it’s more likely Falter becomes a spot starter or long reliever given the limited margin for error with which he operates.

Pipkin is a frame/athleticism developmental project who signed for $800,000 as a ninth rounder. He has a prototypical frame and fluid delivery. He was up to 96 the summer before his senior year but topped out at 94 in pro ball. His feel for spin is just okay, and it’s more likely that a plus fastball and a changeup eventually drive his profile.

Parkinson signed as an over slot 12th rounder ($250,000) in 2017 and in his first full pro season was the 2018 minor league ERA leader and the Phillies’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Big-conference college arms are supposed to carve up Low-A, but Parkinson was especially dominant. He struck out 141 and walked just 35 in 124 innings, most of which came at Lakewood. He has plus command of average stuff, with the changeup flashing above, and the stuff plays up against lefties because of Parkinson’s lower arm slot. There’s significant risk that upper-level hitters tee off on his fastball, but Parkinson might do enough other stuff to offset the lack of velo and pitch at the back of a rotation. If the latter happens, Parkinson should materialize as viable big league depth pretty quickly.

A twiggy, projectable lefty, Silva struck out a batter per inning in the New York-Penn League at age 19. He’s flexible and loose, currently sitting 87-93 with a four and two-seamer that Silva complements with a slurvy breaking ball and immature changeup. Much of Silva’s future depends on how much velocity comes as he matures. Realistically, he ends up with a bevy of average pitches and pitches toward the back of a rotation.

Requena was acquired from Colorado in 2017 as one third of the Phillies’ return for Pat Neshek, along with Jose Gomez and J.D. Hammer, both 35 FV type prospects. Requena is just a touch above that level, despite being a somewhat generic right-handed depth starter. Requena has three average-to-slightly-above pitches that can flash 55 at moments due to his feel for pitching. It isn’t swing-and-miss stuff, and is probably more middle reliever or spot starter than rotation stalwart given pitcher attrition, but he has plus makeup, knows how to pitch, and should be in Double-A next year.

Lindow signed for $500,000 (late third, early fourth round money) as a fifth round high schooler in 2017. He has a four-pitch mix headlined by a slider/cutter and his 88-92mph fastball plays up because it approaches hitters at a tough angle. He’ll likely make his full-season debut in 2019 and projects as a No. 5 starter.