Top 43 Prospects: San Diego Padres

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Diego Padres. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All the numbered prospects here also appear on THE BOARD, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. Click here to visit THE BOARD.

65 FV Prospects

Scouts in the U.S. became enamored of Tatis during 2016 extended spring training in Arizona, and San Diego poached him from the White Sox before he had even suited up for a professional game. He was sent to full-season Fort Wayne as an 18-year-old in 2017 and hit .280/.390/.520 with 20 homers and steals and, perhaps most impressively for his age, a 14.5% walk rate. He also flashes occasional acrobatic brilliance at shortstop, though scouts are not unanimous about his long-term prospects there because of the size of Tatis’s frame. He’s five years younger than the average regular at Double-A right now.

55 FV Prospects

Urias’s strikeout rate doubled in 2017 and was still so low that it would have ranked him in the top 15 among qualified MLB hitters. He has sublime feel for contact, adjusting the barrel to where it needs to be, when it needs to be there, and his track record of excellent hitting suggests it’s going to continue. Urias changed his leg kick’s tempo in 2017 but produces neither more fly balls nor power, and he doesn’t project to. Popless second basemen need to hit like Dee Gordon or Cesar Hernandez to profile as above-average regulars, but it looks like Urias is going to do that, and it’s possible the big-league baseball will allow him to. He’s lighting up Triple-A as a 20-year-old and will likely debut this year.

You can’t truly appreciate Gore’s subtle excellence in a showcase environment, so his one- or two-inning outings the summer before his senior year left him in the draft’s second-round picture. When decision-makers saw him commanding his entire arsenal like an advanced college arm and reaching back for peak velocity late in starts the following spring, his stock exploded. Gore doesn’t have a dominant fastball, nor does he project to, but he’ll touch 96 and has remarkable command of it, as well as command of his slider, curveball, and changeup. His unique delivery requires elite athleticism to repeat, but Gore does it, and he projects to have plus command. He’s a polished high-school arm who should move quickly, projecting as a No. 3 starter.

The Padres signed Baez for $3 million during the winter of 2016, and when he first got underway in Arizona the following spring he looked like a size and arm-strength lottery ticket. By the end of extended spring training, he had made significant progress across the board and became much more than that. Baez’s fastball velocity ticked up into the mid- to upper 90s, and his changeup was consistently plus. The velocity alone was too much for the AZL and Baez was quickly promoted to full-season ball, where he continued to dominate, refining his command along the way.

He is shockingly athletic for his size, allowing him to repeat his delivery and project for plus command. Big leaguers can succeed with a changeup/command foundation, and Baez has those things but also touches 99. He looks like a potential No. 3 starter, but there’s also an element of freakishness here that could indicate more.

50 FV Prospects

Espinoza was 94-97 and flashed a plus changeup and curveball during his final spring-training start of 2017. Between that outing and his first regular-season start for High-A Lake Elsinore, he felt discomfort in his elbow and was shut down. After several weeks of rest and rehab, it was decided that he needed Tommy John surgery, which he had early in August. The timing wasn’t great and Espinoza may also miss all of 2018 working back from surgery. He has front-end stuff but, even if it returns, he’ll have missed two years of reps that he desperately needed to polish his below-average control.

Morejon sits 93-96, but it plays down because he’s small and kind of a short-strider. His changeup is arguably plus already and his best secondary, especially because his slider wasn’t as crisp this spring as I’ve seen it in the past, nor was his command. Morejon projects as a No. 3 starter if the slider and command tighten up to where they were at times when he first arrived and looked like he’d rush to Double-A. His more likely outcome is a No. 3/4.

Lucchesi appeared within the honorable-mention section of our top-100 list as a No. 4 starter who was pretty likely to realize that outcome relatively soon. His stuff appears generic. He sits 89-92, will touch 94, both of his breaking balls are average, and his changeup is slightly above. What makes Lucchesi unique are his cartoonish on-mound mannerisms, many of which aid his effectiveness. He has a drop-and-drive delivery and extreme overhand arm slot, two opposing forces which create an odd initial look for hitters and cause Lucchesi’s fastball plane to be very flat, which is especially effective when he works up in the zone. Typically, pitchers with this sort of arm slot have a difficult time working east and west within the strike zone, but Lucchesi is athletic enough to maintain his delivery while making subtle variations.

In a vacuum, he’s a 45 fastball, 50 curve, 50 slider, 50 changeup guy with potential plus command. With the mechanical funk thrown in, though, everything plays up a half-grade or so.

Another changeup specialist, Allen has a comfortably plus cambio and sinking low-90s fastball. He’s missing bats at Double-A as a 20-year-old and is a likely No. 4 starter prospect. If anything undercuts Allen’s future it’s some combination of breaking-ball effectiveness and mechanical stiffness, which harms his command. Other than a forearm injury in 2016 he has been remarkably healthy throughout his career, and he’ll likely be the third player San Diego acquired from Boston in the Craig Kimbrel deal to play in the big leagues.

Quantrill’s delivery and command have regressed over the last year, and he was mostly 87-90 when I saw him this spring. He would have been among those considered for the top pick in the draft in 2016 if he hadn’t been sidelined recovering from Tommy John his entire junior spring at Stanford. This was largely because Quantrill was able to locate 92-94 and a plus changeup when healthy. His breaking ball flashes average but hasn’t developed much since he signed. He’s much like Allen, but is three years older at the same level of the minors and has a TJ under his belt already. His stock has sunk a bit and he now projects as a No. 4 starter.

45 FV Prospects

Among the group of July 2 prospect from San Diego’s banner 2016 class, Arias was the only one to get a cup of coffee in full-season ball last year. Then he went to Australia and hit for surprising power over the winter. He’ll be 18 all year in full-season ball, so how he performs on paper matters very little. He’s a potential plus defensive shortstop who has solid feel for contact and a frame that portends power as he matures.

Ornelas was a sweet-swinging, soft-bodied first-base-only prospect as an amateur but has worked hard to completely remake his physique, and he’s now a good corner outfield defender. His feel for contact and control of the strike zone are very promising for his age. Ornelas doesn’t project to have elite raw power, but he’ll get to whatever power he does have because of how often he squares the ball up, and he should do enough damage to profile in a corner. He’s more likely to succeed than any of the other Padres prospects at Fort Wayne because he’s the most advanced hitter. He’ll probably blow up next year when his bat arrives in the Cal League, but he’s already tracking like a premium prospect even if it doesn’t appear that way on paper.

As a Texas high schooler, Potts was a slick-fielding infielder with good feel for contact and a projectable frame. He’s now a power-hitting third baseman who draws mixed defensive reviews from scouts. He was part of effective scrambling on the part of the Padres after Jason Groome did not fall to their late-first-round pick in 2016. Potts signed under slot, and San Diego added two overslot prep arms later. Potts gets to his power despite his aggressiveness and projects for output on par with the big-league average at third base. There’s some risk he swings and misses too much to profile, but he otherwise projects as an average everyday player.

Paddack was acquired from the Marlins for Fernando Rodney during the summer of 2016 and needed Tommy John soon after the deal. He was breaking out right before the trade, pitching with great command in the 92-94 mph range and flummoxing hitters with a dominant changeup. He missed all of 2017 due to the timing of his surgery but is back now and pitching at High-A. His velocity, ability to locate, and changeup looked intact this spring. He’s already been dominant in his brief return and should move up this list quickly if he shows he’s healthy and effective, as his stuff isn’t all that different from Baez’s.

Naylor has been a frustrating pro prospect. He has plus-plus raw power and bat control but has hit for very little in-game power because he swings at everything he can reach instead of just what he can drive. He’s now blocked by Eric Hosmer at first base, which means a try in left field. Naylor is big but moves surprisingly well in a straight line and has a good arm, so he might be better out there than at first, where he is not good. There’s plenty of physical ability here. If it’s unlocked, Naylor’s bat profiles anywhere, even at DH. Early indications are that he’s bought in to a new approach and has a chance to break out this year.

Avila had 170 strikeouts across two levels last year. He sits 90-95 and touches 96 with two good secondaries. He’s small but has the stuff of a potential league-average starter and projects as such for now. He as acquired from Washington for Derek Norris.

Nix has started the season on the DL with a groin issue each of the last two years, and he hasn’t pitched yet this season. When healthy, he’s a 50 FV type of arm, sitting 92-95 with sink and two quality secondary offerings. He’s a potential fourth starter who needs to stay healthy. He’ll pass the other Double-A arms on this list if he comes back healthy because his stuff is better than Allen’s and Quantrill’s.

This grade is either too high or too low for Franchy. and there’s no in-between. He’s a 70 runner with 70 power, and some scouts think both are 80s. But he’s also been one of the more clueless-looking players in the minors over the last several years, and his speed plays down in the outfield while his feckless approach undercuts his physical talents at the plate. God help major-league baseball if Franchy ever figures it out. We’re hopeful, but skeptical.

Ruiz was San Diego’s annual Rookie-ball treat, acquired from Kansas City in the trade that sent, among others, Trevor Cahill to the Royals. Multiple scouts from different orgs have dropped an Alfonso Soriano comp on him, in part because he has all-fields power and also because Ruiz is a bad defensive second baseman. He could ultimately end up in an outfield corner instead of a middle-infield spot, which is a precipitous fall down the defensive spectrum. He also might hit enough that nobody cares, though.

Olivares had a big year in the Midwest League in 2017 and was acquired from Toronto in exchange for Yangervis Solarte over the winter. He’s a volatile power/speed prospect with an aggressive approach. He runs well enough to continue development in center field. If he stays there and his lack of patience doesn’t undermine his offensive output, then he’ll be a star. If not, his is a fairly typical right-field profile that will require Olivares to max out his in-game power production.

40 FV Prospects

Rosario is a unique athlete (he can do a standing Ozzie Smith backflip) with elite hand-eye coordination and bat control. He’s extremely difficult to strike out, and his ability to put the ball in play and get down the line quickly will be enough for him to have offensive success in the low minors. Rosario should also be able to stay in center field. I have question about the bat path and makeup, and the right tail outcome, though strong, is limited by Rosario’s lack of power projection because there’s not much room on his frame for mass. None of that will matter if he becomes a 70 hitter who can stay in center field, which is in play.

Lockett’s sinker is so heavy it’s grouped with the Transactinides on the periodic table. His secondary stuff is fine, and he’s a near-ready back-end starter.

Thompson was injured for his senior year of high school, and it was unclear if he’d be drafted and paid or go to school. The Padres splurged with money saved from signing Hudson Potts under slot and got a deal done. Thompson has been solid as a pro, sitting 89-94 (without much movement) and showing good feel for his changeup. He’s off to a rough start in 2018 but still projects as a No. 4/5 at peak.

Hunt was one of the better defensive catchers in the 2017 draft and added a lot of muscle over the offseason such that he now also has big raw power. He’s a better bet to stay behind the plate than Campusano and, though he isn’t as athletic, has comparable offensive ability.

Barley is somewhat erratic, but he’s very likely to play somewhere up the middle and has already grown into sizable raw power. He’s behind some of the other July 2 signees from his class developmentally, but his physical abilities are not.

Campusano struggled behind the plate after he signed and saw time at first base during spring training. He remade his physique ahead of his senior year of high school and is now twitchy and athletic enough that there’s valid hope that he can improve significantly as a defender. He also has swing-and-miss issues, but there’s so much power here that those need not be completely remedied for LCB to profile anyway.

Lauer sits about 89-92, but his fastball garnered a higher rate of swings and misses than is typical for a heater that speed, so it’s possible something unseen is going on that will allow it to play like that in the big leagues. If that’s the case, we’re a little light on him. We think he’s a fifth starter.

Franmil has improved his conditioning, incorporated more loft into his swing, and is having upper-level success. He has the power to clear the first-base/right-field offensive bar if given the opportunity but also has some Quad-A traits.

When we write up most of the lower-level first-base-only prospects with swing-and-miss issues, they typically go on the honorable-mention section of the list. Zunica has so much raw power that we were compelled to put a 40 on him, but the contact issues are troubling.

Stock is our first of many hard-throwing relief-only prospects in this system. He touches 100 and has two quality secondary offerings, which place him a tier above your typical near-ready bullpen prospect.

Patino is a small, athletic righty with electric arm speed that allows him to generate a fastball in the 94-97 range pretty regularly. He also has good feel for spinning a breaking ball, and you can project on everything else because of his athleticism, but his size and high-effort delivery have a lot of scouts projecting him in relief.

Bolanos is a solid, if generic, bullpen prospect. He’ll touch 98 once in a while but mostly sits 92-95 without a dominant secondary offering.

Reed is improving at the plate and his exit velos were up in 2017. He’s a terrific defensive center fielder and blazing runner, so it’s likely that he finds his way onto big-league rosters for a long time, and he might develop enough bat to start during that time.

Munoz is hurt right now. When healthy, though, he has perhaps the best fastball in this system. It’s touched 102 and has routinely been in the upper 90s almost every time I’ve seen him on the back fields or in the Fall League. He was the youngest AFL prospect and his arm action elicits Craig Kimbrel comps. The breaking ball is still inconsistent, though, so let’s not get carried away.

Ona’s tools all hover around average and it’s become clear that he doesn’t fit in center field, which means his likely outcome is that of a second-division regular.

House was not heavily scouted in high school, and some teams didn’t have anyone above just an area scout lay eyes on him. He’s raw and had not faced much good pitching in high school, but the physical tools are well rounded, if perhaps lacking some explosion. It’s tough to project how the hit tool is going to develop — and there’s an everyday player in here if it does — but it’ll probably take a while.

Almanzar’s development has stalled. He’s much thinner than he was as an amateur and isn’t making strong contact. He was left back in extended spring training, and it’s hard to say why this has happened.

Lawson was a two-pitch guy in 2017, and mechanical inconsistency had scouts worried that he’d end up in relief. His 93-96 mph fastball and breaking ball are good, so as soon as he finds a cambio he’ll shoot up the list. There’s just been very little movement on that end since he signed entering the year.

Diomar throws really hard for his size and has been up to 97 in my looks at him this spring. His control needs to improve significantly, but he’s a solid relief prospect.

Wingenter’s size helps his already impressive fastball (95-99) play up. Neither of his secondaries are dominant, but there’s enough to profile in relief.

Bednar is a standard fastball/slider relief prospect, which is a terrific outcome for such a late pick from a little college in Easton.

Wieck enjoyed a huge velo spike in 2017 and his fastball ticked up from 90-94 to 94-96, touching 99 with plus-plus extension due to his size. That pairs with a plus curveball and could enable Wieck to pitch in high-leverage situations as long as he retains sufficient fastball control.

Rosario was sent to Fort Wayne as a 17-year-old last year then demoted back to extended spring training due to immaturity. He has bounced back and was again assigned aggressively this year, this time to High-A Lake Elsinore. He’s physically mature and has a utility man’s tools.

Miliano was a graceful 16-year-old with good curveball feel and a low-90s fastball when he first arrived in the states. Last year his delivery went backward, and he struggled to find a consistent release point. That, in turn, harmed his ability to throw strikes and the consistency of his curveball. He’s 18 now and has lots of time to right the ship.

Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Arm Strength
Jose Castillo, LHP
Trevor Megill, RHP
Rowan Wick, RHP
Starlin Cordero, RHP
Jordan Guerrero, RHP
Dauris Valdez, RHP
Wilmer Torres, RHP
Elias Torres, RHP
Adrian Martinez, RHP
Hansel Rodriguez, RHP

There are so many of these that I’m only going to touch on them all briefly unless I think they merit further exposition. Castillo raised his arm slot and is now 92-95, touching 98. Megill has a plus curve, average fastball and slider. Wick is a conversion arm acquired from St. Louis who has been up to 100 in the past but is mostly 93-96 with a 55 curve. Cordero is built like Gumby and has a funky delivery. He sits 93-96. Jordan Guerrero touches 100 and has a 50 change. Dauris Valdez also touches 100. Both he and Guerrero are husky dudes. Both Torreses sit 92-95 with an average change and curve. Martinez throws 90-94 with a plus change. Hansel Rodriguez was bad in my looks this spring but was up to 97 with a 55 slider last year.

Multi-inning Depth
Adrian De Horta, RHP
Sam Keating, RHP
Jean Cosme, RHP
Ben Sheckler, RHP

De Horta flashes a 60 change, and his other stuff hovers close enough to average that he merited consideration for the 40s. Keating was up to 92 in pro ball with a 50/55 change and slider. Cosme has similarly average stuff. Sheckler, too, though some consider his slider plus.

Utility-Types
Dusty Coleman, UTIL
Austin Allen, 1B
Rod Boykin, OF
Michael Gettys, CF
Ty France, 3B
Javier Guerra, SS
Justin Lopez, SS
Ruddy Giron, SS

Coleman has 6 power and can play a bunch of positions. Allen has big power and the org think he can catch, but we’re skeptical and don’t think he profiles at first. Boykin is an athletic sleeper with tools that aren’t far beneath Ona’s and House’s. Gettys has a 7 arm and 6 power but can’t hit. France has 55 raw and some bat control but, like Allen, we think he fits at first, only. Guerra’s actions around the bag are stunning but the bat to ball is still an issue. Lopez will probably be in that bucket eventually. Giron is a fringe utility type.

Sleepers with Upside
Agustin Ruiz, OF
Cristian Heredia, CF
Jonny Homza, C

Heredia stood out to me last fall as a projectable teenage outfielder with some speed and feel to hit. Ruiz is less toolsy but also well built and a bit more advanced. Homza was a high-school infielder with good feel for contact and great makeup. The Padres moved him behind the plate, and he struggled in his first go at it last fall (as expected) but put on a lot of weight over the offseason and was hitting the ball much harder this spring.

Deeper Repertoires
Frank Lopez, RHP
Gerardo Reyes, RHP
Emmanuel Ramirez, RHP
Henry Henry, RHP
Ramon Perez, LHP
Brett Kennedy, RHP
Nick Margevicius, RHP

Lopez is a 16-year-old Venezuelan righty with a somewhat projectable frame. His arm is quick and he’s topped out at 94 this spring while showing some curveball feel. He signed for $300K in July of 2017. Reyes is a side-armer who runs his fastball up to 98 with ridiculous movement, and his slot helps his slider play up. Emmanuel Ramirez has a plus curve and change, but his fastball is fringey. Henry Henry is well built, young, athletic, and will touch 96, but his arm slot probably keeps him in the bullpen. Ramon Perez has no physical projection and a 40 fastball, but his breaker is a 6. Hernandez and Kennedy sit 90-94, each with a 5- breaking ball and below-average change. Margevicious throws a little slower than that.

Cistulli’s Guy
Selected by Carson Cistulli from any player who received less than a 40 FV.
Jesse Scholtens, RHP
The challenge of identifying a compelling fringe-type player for this space is rendered even more challenging when the lead prospect analyst opts simply to assign a 40 FV or higher to nearly every player in the system. One player not considered for the designation of Cistulli’s Guy is last year’s recipient of that title, right-hander Michael Kelly. After leaving the Padres as a minor-league free agent this past offseason, he actually signed a major-league deal with Baltimore, for whom he’s currently working in Triple-A.

This selection ultimately became a choice between three players: Austin Allen, Kyle Overstreet, and Scholtens. Allen’s primary tool is power; Overstreet’s, his bat-to-ball skills. Both have experience catching, but neither appears destined for that position in the majors. The long tumble down the defensive spectrum to first base ultimately places too much pressure on their respective offensive contributions.

Right-hander Scholtens isn’t an obvious future major leaguer — or, at least not as a starter. A ninth-round pick out of Wright State in 2016, his stuff is modest, reports generally placing his fastball in the low 90s, complemented by solid but not overwhelming secondaries. He throws strikes, though, and was good enough over six starts at Double-A this year to record the top strikeout- and walk-rate differential across the entire level.

System Overview

This is the best system in baseball, and whatever attrition occurs among the top names on this list will likely be back-filled by its ridiculous depth. The Padres’ big club is tough to watch right now, but it’s very likely that things get much better in the next two to three years as these guys develop.

We hoped you liked reading Top 43 Prospects: San Diego Padres by Eric Longenhagen!

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