Toronto Keeps Upgrading, Adds Josh Donaldson
After the 2011 season, it seemed improbable that the Blue Jays would ever trade Brett Lawrie. He was the native son who exploded onto the scene, bounding his way into the hearts of baseball fans from Victoria to Corner Brook. Always a great hitter in the minor leagues, Lawrie hit .293/.373/.580 with 9 home runs in a 40-game big league tease that set completely unrealistic expectations .
Three injury-ravaged and underwhelming seasons later, Lawrie and three prospects are gone and Josh Donaldson is the new starting third baseman in Toronto as the Blue Jays try to accomplish one goal: reach the playoffs for the first time in a generation. No passport or sentiment will stand in their way as they try to end a long streak without playoff baseball.
Adding Donaldson is a significant upgrade for the Jays, as any team would expect when they pick up one of the premier players in baseball. Conservatively, switching out Donaldson for Lawrie is about a two win upgrade on talent alone. Lawrie’s spotty injury history and inability to translate his minor league offense at the big league level suggest it might be an even bigger gulf.
With two top-ten MVP finishes and 53 total home runs in the last two years, the Jays get a star – a star moving from an offensive sinkhole to a very friendly space for right-handed power hitters. Donaldson is an older player, heading into arbitration for the first time (he’s a Super Two) as well as his age-29 season. Unlike the A’s side of the deal, the four years of control that come with Toronto’s new third baseman is purely secondary to his ability to help them win in 2015.
The Jays wanted an upgrade and, according to Alex Anthopoulos, it was the inclusion of Lawrie in the talks that brought this deal to life. They sell low on Lawrie, who always hit before struggling (mightily at times) at the big league level. He’s as talented a player as there is, one Oakland hopes they can reshape into a more well-rounded big leaguer.
His talent is undeniable, Lawrie is perhaps the defensive equal of Donaldson at third base, and like Oakland’s Fielding Bible Award winner, Lawrie is a former catcher. Perhaps Oakland can get the countless moving parts of his swing in order and awaken the one tool that brought him to the big leagues at 21.
Toronto also gives up a very promising international free agent in Franklin Barreto, a shortstop at 18 with his stock on the rise, fast-rising pitcher in Kendall Graveman, and slightly stalled prospect in Sean Nolin. In terms of bulk control years, the Jays give up a lot. But that future surplus value finishes a distant second to the chance the Jays are building the best team in their division.
Some might look at the Jays rotation and wonder if they have the talent to win a championship. To that I say: look around. The state of the game swung so heavily in favor of pitchers, adding Donaldson’s bat to the likes of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista — to say nothing of Russell Martin — suggests the Jays believe the road to the postseason is paved with extra base hits.
Like the Red Sox, the Jays seem focused on piling more offense on top of their already-deep pool of sluggers. In Donaldson the Blue Jays add another home run threat who actually strikes out at a below-league average rate. As the league heads in one direction, it appears Toronto is headed in another.
It is easy to search for additional meaning in this trade and the Blue Jays interest in Josh Donaldson. Simply put, they targeted a great player they thought could help their team win a division title and more. They added a player who saved more than 30 runs with his glove since 2012 while putting up a 125 wRC+. His 14 WAR over the last two years trails only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen. Rather than hope their third baseman realized his potential, Toronto acquired one of the best in the game.
It also signals Toronto is serious about overhauling their clubhouse culture, though there is no better cure for a divided clubhouse than a whole pile of wins. Any team that boasts Reyes-Martin-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson at the top of their batting order figures to give pitchers fits, though another left-handed bat in that mix (Reyes switch hits, the rest are all righties) must be a priority.
There is still work to do in Toronto, as huge questions loom in left field as well as second base. Their presumed starting center fielder is 43 big league plate appearances into his career (barely 200 PA above A-ball for Dalton Pompey, another Canadian.) They might not be done yet, but adding an elite ballplayer for the second time in two weeks is a nice way to head into the Winter Meetings.
Deals like this are how teams climb from the 80-85 win treadmill to the 90-win tier of World Series favorites. As they did with Russell Martin, the Blue Jays looked at a decent (and affordable) spot on their roster and thought they could improve it. They gave up a chunk of their identity and whole lot of prospect capital to do it, but it looks like these aren’t your older brother’s Toronto Blue Jays – though I’ve said that before.
Drew used to write about baseball and other things at theScore but now he writes here. Follow him on twitter @DrewGROF
I wonder if the Melky news about the turf really bothering him and he not wanted to stay pushed AA to get this done ASAP.
But there goes the Nolin for Saunders deal.
Melky and Bautista came out on Twitter today and said that wasn’t true…I mean it Melky is probably creating a website on how much he loves turf right now….but still.
Melky’s agent came on the radio to deny it. The door is still ajar.
How can a door be a jar?
When the freeway’s melting.
Good trade. Scoring runs was never the Jays problem though so there better be another move coming.
defense was their major problem and Martin and Donaldson will certainly help on that front. As will trading away Lind (EEE DH), letting Francisco go and maybe not getting Melky back.
Their defence wasnt great but I have a hard time saying it was their major problem. If you look at their DIPS their pitching was pretty terrible even without any extra help from the defence.
So why did Donaldson’s projected WAR instantly go down half a win as soon as he was added to the Jays’ depth chart page?
That’s just from the foul balls he would have caught in Oakland that will now be in the 16th row in Toronto.
because Canada’s a more peaceful country
…and has much the prettier National Anthem. Half point deduction for Celine Dion however.
ten point deduction for nickelback and justin bieber…
because of the marginal tax rates that go to pay for all the free health care. Part of Donaldson’s earning power will now go to saving lives, which in turn tends to correlate with lower WAR.
yeah, his taxes will go to saving lives instead of ending them….
Toronto’s actually middle of the pack as far as tax rate goes… For some reason the perception out there is that it is amongst the highest…
Oddly enough, we Canadians (with a single payer) still manage to spend fewer government dollars per capita on health care than Americans.
We Americans like our freedom to be obese, under-educated, gun toting, diabetes-having fools. You can have your quality healthcare, it’s my choice to not have healthcare and cause the cost of healthcare to go up because I wait to long to see a doctor about that tumor on my prostate and go bankrupt trying to fix it and never paying my bills.
Canada is a more peaceful country because it gets free national defense from the USA.
Canada is a more peaceful country because curling is a national obsession and it is a cerebral and non-violent sport.
Brooms and stones, what else do you need to be happy, eh?
That’s somewhat true, though, of basically every country in the world (and especially every rich country in the world). Global Policeman and all. The real reason Canada is more peaceful is gun ownership.
…or because we keep to ourselves and don’t pick fights with everyone.
“Deals like this are how teams climb from the 80-85 win treadmill to the 90-win tier of World Series favorites. As they did with Russell Martin, the Blue Jays looked at a decent (and affordable) spot on their roster and thought they could improve it. They gave up a chunk of their identity and whole lot of prospect capital to do it, but it looks like these aren’t your older brother’s Toronto Blue Jays – though I’ve said that before.”
Now that’s the definitive paragraph written about this trade tonight.
So Machado and Donaldson get to see each other more often for the next 4 years? Sweet.
That is funny, Machado I mean, do ya think he’ll ever grow up? Hard call, I think you guys got a great player & dumped a head case, as always time will tell, being a Red Sox fan I welcome the slugfests in 2015, just hope we can get Lestah back, but ya never know with a FO like Bostons. I also wish we could dump Farrell back to you guys, maybe he could become your pitching coach?
Have to absolutely love this move by Anthopoulos. The Jays need a good starter and to fix the bullpen a little. They don’t need any more bats, lefty of otherwise. Being predominantly right handed never hurt the Cardinals all these years.
hey now
Great write up Drew
Fine article, Drew. And while I like Brett Lawrie’s potential to put up 4-5+ WAR if he can stay on the field for 130 games, it’s a misnomer to say that he was “always a great hitter in the minor leagues.” He was actually great just one of three years, and okay-to-good during the other two.
First year as a farmhand, Lawrie had a .777 OPS.
Next season, he posted barely better OPS of .797.
Then, in his third year, came the breakout season at Vegas where he crushed the ball to the tune of .353/.415/.661 at the tender age of 21.
You’re right. In my defense, his reputation as an amateur was as an offensive player too. Maybe some of that bled into my “memory”.
That’s a little rough to say a 20-year-old 2B with a .797 OPS in AA only had an ‘okay or good’ year. I would say that’s a very impressive year with the bat all things considered.
Those numbers don’t really tell you much without knowing what kind of environment he was hitting in.
Unfortunately for the Jays (and now the Mets and A’s), what happens in Vegas…
SSS etc, but still fun – comparing the final 100 PAs in 2014 for Lawrie (5/26-8/5) and Donaldson (9/5-9/28)…
Lawrie: .289/.350/.444 – 125 wRC+
Donaldson: .256/.337/.411 – 110 wRC+
right let’s ignore the larger sample and focus on their last 100 PAs…
What’s the evidenciary value of that particular comparison? It’s not at all obvious it has any, based on what we know about sample sizes and random variation. What do you think this is telling us?
It’s telling us absolutely nothing, nada! A poor attempt at doublespeak, which American politicians are superb at.
I like it because the dates shoe that lawrie was injured when Donaldson was hitting what was below average for him but above league average.. I’ll take a mini-slumping but on the field superstar over the guy who is off the field. Over a 100 AB sample size.
Yes, what it shows is that Lawrie only had 100 PA after 5/26, so 4+ months of the season.
This is a shocking deal. As a Jays fan, I loved Lawrie’s intensity, and his sky-high ceiling, but I hated his inconsistency and seemingly constant injuries. Some of his injuries were just the result of unusual accidents, but the severe oblique strains that occur annually with Lawrie definitely warrant an injury-prone label. Anyone that has seen him smoke the ball in bp can tell he’s got an electrifying bat. Which is why Lawrie appeared in several trade rumors over the past year; unfulfilled promise, but undeniable talent.
What is shocking is that they were able to trade him for Donaldson. I wouldn’t have expected the A’s to trade him for anybody, let alone a player as inferior as Lawrie. That Alex A. was able to pull off this deal without including Norris or Stroman is astonishing. Donaldson is going to continue to be an MVP candidate. None of the players traded for him will be. Barreto is an interesting piece, but who knows how far he will actually progress. Graveman had a good year, but was it legit? He was not considered a notable prospect before. Nolin is good, but not great. One of these guys might be good major leaguers 3 or 4 yrs from now, but unlikely that all 3 will. I just don’t get this deal from the A’s perspective, especially when you consider Donaldson is not a pending free agent and under team control for some time.
HUGE win for the Jays and now I am super excited for the season to start!
Graveman was the ace of a college WS team and is an extreme groundball machine… He may just turn out to be a servicable major leaguer despite the low level hype…
That’s pretty much exactly how I see it, though lamentably I have an A’s fan’s perspective.
Billy must have taken some crazy pills for a night and AA was the beneficiary.
Offensive production is not the Jays’ problem. Pitching is. And playing half the games at hitter-friendly Rogers Centre doesn’t make it easier. You can have a great lineup and all the positive clubhouse chemistry in the world. If you don’t have a strong starting rotation, you’re not going anywhere. Dickey, Buehrle, Stroman, Hutch, Estrada and Happ just aren’t going to get it done. It might be a good deal but certainly not one that is pushing the Jays into the playoffs.
the Jays rotation was pretty decent last year. defense was their main problem. AA has been increasing the Jays D significantly the past several weeks.
I’d argue the rotation was actually one of the strong points for the Jays last season, especially down the stretch. What hurt them was the bullpen and inconsistency from the offense. They’d put up a ton of runs for a few games and then disappear for stretches at a time or the bullpen would crap out in a close game and the hitting couldn’t make up for it.
In a time when pitching is ruling the game I suspect acquiring elite hitting talent is a good way to improve your chances for sustained success over a long season and into the playoffs. Especially if that hitter also plays excellent defense and has shown a tendency to stay healthy.
Expect big time regression from Buerhle though. They need another SP’er and an elite BP arm. Shields and Robertson
the jays problems last year were on defense and in the pen.
defense has been upgraded bigtime this offseason, which is the right direction.
addressing the bullpen is necessary too, but they should be able to do that without spending a ton of money or assets.
as for starting pitching, its pretty good, especially when accounting for park factors. it lacks a legit ace at the moment, but that’s the only kind of SP move i’d make – no need for mid rotation guys at all.
You can also have a rock bottom or terrible chemistry and win, look at the A’s of the early 70s? I don’t expect the Red Sox of 2015 to have good chemistry in spite of all the false hype about Papi keeping Hanley under control, you watch, that team will be some what like the old A’s teams, a little pitching and the Red Sox will win again. While the Blue Jays look like they are an honest contender. Good luck.
No argument right now but given the current mix of talent available and probably knowledge of who won’t come here (FA pitchers) AA can’t stop adding non-pitching talent when it becomes available. The addition of Martin and Donaldson even if you account for some decline will provide more offensive value than the expected contributions from Lawrie, Lind and Cabrera. Navarro remains as a trade chip possible DH. That means re-signing Melky is not as important as it was viewed last month. In my opinion the Jays pitching while not outstanding did suffer from poor defense last year especially at critical times in games. If the Jays can upgrade defense at 2B and CF one could live with Melky in left field and decent pitching may be better than decent when plays are made.
I’m not saying that we shouldn’t look for upgrades to the pitching staff. The problem is that the availability and cost of such upgrades must be balanced against the need for better defence in a hitter heaven like the dome.
“Some might look at the Jays rotation and wonder if they have the talent to win a championship. ”
Not sure the rotation is the issue. It’s the bullpen that’s a problem, with the lack of a high leverage arm outside of Cecil. Loup is a LOOGY, Estrada is a middle reliever, and beyond that it’s a mix of long relievers or guys like Delabar who went from all star to minor leaguer. Really what the Jays need are 2-3 RH RP that can pitch in high leverage spots. A set up man and a closer would be ideal, unless you can gamble on Cecil being a CL, but even then you still would want 2 high leverage RHP.
The rotation will be average at worst. They’ll get a full year out of Stroman, and even if MB regresses he’s a solid piece. Dickey’s going on 1000 innings of ERA lower than FIP, and his 2.8 R/9 WAR isn’t a bad third starter here. Then there’s Hutchinson, or Norris, or Sanchez, or Happ. There’s depth behind the starting 5, and there’s a mix of guys in Norris/Sanchez who are high ceiling guys who are close to breaking in. I think that’s a big reason why the Jays aren’t spending on SP, not because they think offence is the way to the playoffs.
The rotation isn’t elite but it’s not going to hold them back either. The bullpen, on the other hand, is a mess right now.
Oh, and yeah, Donaldson was a fantastic addition.
stroman got rocked a few times. i wouldn’t be shocked to see him out of the rotation by midseason as teams actually scout him this offseason. sanchez was bad as a starter in aaa last year, but i guess he’ll be an ace in the mlb because he has an elite fb when he only has to throw it 12 times a game. hutchison is talked about in toronto like he’s a front line starter, when he’s basically performed at the same level as happ and estrada. he’s young, so we assume upside – but i don’t know why, i guess the league average FIP numbers just speak ‘ace’ to some. the jays’ rotation has 2 guys that give you 200 ip and an era of about 3.5 that you can basically bank on, and toronto fans want to trade them because…iunno, UPSIDE!?, payroll!?. fandom is weird in 2014.
You think Stroman is going to be beat because of scouting? He had a FIP- of 73 and XFIP- of 84. He had an above average GB rate and a strong K:BB. He’s not going anywhere.
I didn’t say Sanchez would be an elite starter right off the bat, but thanks for making a poor assumption. I said he would be a fifth SP, or a depth guy if someone gets injured. Nice try though.
I said that Hutchinson was a #4 SP, not an ace. So again, nice strawman, but read what I said. He’s certainly better than Happ or Estrada.
i didn’t say that’s what i think will happen, i said it wouldn’t SHOCK me because despite all the peripherals indicating he’ll continue to be very very good, the annals of mlb are littered with guys that have had good half seasons. stroman gave up 5 or more ER in 1/4 of his starts (let’s not even discuss his mlb career as a reliever). i don’t see too many front of the rotation guys getting lit up 25% of the time. obviously the FIP would lead us to the conclusion that he’s more likely to improve on this year than fall apart, but my point is i wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a step back. young pitchers have a tendency to break your heart, as the saying goes, and jays fans have had their hearts broken recently by romero and morrow after “break-out” seasons (although the peripherals didn’t look nearly as good).
sanchez wasn’t even a good #5 in aaa, why would be all of a sudden be one in the bigs? if the jays are serious about changing the clubhouse, maybe they should start by realizing that making guys “earn” their spots is probably a good idea when you have capable guys (happ, for example) who have done nothing to lose their job to a guy with a FIP over 4 in aa/aaa last year.
obviously sanchez’ upside means they want to see him succeed as a starter, but this year he might be better served a)in a high leverage RP role or b)starting in aaa. it’s a tougher call now that they’ve traded a lot of back of rotation depth to oakland, and aa is saying they won’t spend the big bux on RP (probably the wise thing to do fwiw).
i agree that the rotation is probably ‘average’ today, but one way to help the bullpen is to limit the number of innings they need to pitch. that’s why i think relying on guys that have pitched fewer than 200ip in their careers is a recipe for heartbreak. relievers basically grow on trees, anyway and if they’re in it again in july they can load up for the playoff run then. but to get there, i think the best way is to improve the front end of the rotation.
Out of the rotation by midseason? Are you fucking high?
Are they really bent on scoring over pitching? I mean, last year, they just added Stroman, Hutchison, and Sanchez, or don’t they count because they aren’t big name free agents? They signed Martin because he makes the pitchers better, not for his bat. Everybody they’ve signed so far is good defensively, which equates to adding better pitching. It seems to me they are improving on both sides of the ball.
Exactly. They’re finally adding quality 2 way players, instead of one dimensional guys like Goins (can field but not hit) or guys who can hit but can’t field.
Now the Jays just have to resign Melky and sign Cruz at DH, and add one of Lester or Shields, and David Robertson and they will win 100 games
What about Miller? Adding him to the Jays bullpen would surely be a boost. Either one will cost more than a few bucks, but it looks like the Jays are all in (again).
I doubt the Jays go after Cruz though. Coming off a career year and looking for a 5 year deal? Can’t see the Jays making that kind of mistake. If he had been looking for a shorter term deal, the O’s would’ve signed him by now.
In any event, it’s shaping up to be a really interesting year in the AL East. HanRam and Panda in Beantown. Donaldson and Martin in Toronto. And hopefully, Machado and a healthy Wieters–beating the shift in 2014 and improving his splits dramatically–each playing a full season, with perhaps Chris Davis having a bounce back year.
Gentlemen: please start your bats.
Yeah, Miller’s probably the move over DRob, just because he doesn’t cost a pick.
good deal for both teams. oakland gets a talented (but injury prone) replacement and quite a bit of talent and the jays get donaldson, who should fit well in that park because he is a flyball hitter (15th highest FB percentage of all qualified AL hitters) and should benefit from toronto and the other AL east bandboxes.